Brady for MVP this year or is there someone more deserving?

[Ring 6]

Got a feeling voters are going left wing this year. They are dying to crown one of the young up and coming stars in this league imo.

What are you basing this on? Do you know who the voters are?

 

[K. Dog]

While I know playoff performance isn't factored into the MVP

A player's actual performance in the playoffs in a given season is not factored into his MVP voting.

However, probable playoff performance should be factored in. Part of what makes a player valuable is how much he helps his team in the playoffs.

Thus, every MVP voter voting on a player P in a season S should include an estimate Playoff(P) of P's likely performance in the playoffs (or what that performance would be had his team made the playoffs).

More exactly, given an actual performance regular in a regular season by a player P, each voter V has some estimate of P's playoff performance:

V_playoff (regular)

Clearly, for most of the last 17 years, and particularly '14 and '16, anyone would say that Playoff(Brady) was MVP level.

However, obviously Brady did not win the MVP in those years.

Therefore, each voter V who assessed Brady's likely playoff performance in 2016 (and likely previous years) as not being MVP caliber, should assess his own function

V_playoff(regular)

in such a way that

V_playoff(Brady)

is higher than it was.

In this way, eventually voters assessments of players' playoffs performance in a given year is corrected by their actual performance in previous years. This correction should eventually result in whatever factors Brady evinces in the regular season to be more likely to lead to playoff wins.

In other words: voters should admit they misunderstood Brady's abilities in previous years, and they should learn from their mistakes. So it is not strictly accurate that playoff performance is not considered in MVP voting, rather, only actual playoff performance in a given season is not considered for the MVP for that season, but previous playoff performance could have indirect effects.

[P.S. this is a kind of "reinforcement learning" for any computer science types out there: voters should learn eventually to predict playoff performance]

 

[drewskie]

Interesting stat...

The last time the Bills made the playoffs (99-00) was also the last time the regular season MVP won SB MVP in the same season.

 

[Betterthanmost]

He deserves it, but I will rather they give it to someone else. Wentz still has the numbers, Gurley.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Interesting stat...

The last time the Bills made the playoffs (99-00) was also the last time the regular season MVP won SB MVP in the same season.

hmmm..., so you are saying the curse may be broken?

 

[drewskie]

hmmm..., so you are saying the curse may be broken?

Dont jinx it.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Dont jinx it.

The fact that we did not win in 07 makes me just weary of this ... whatever it is. I mean I was so sure Brady was the one to break whatever stupid superstition that was affiliated with the MVP and winning superbowl. Then when Manning's Broncos were destroyed by the Seahawks, I started to watch the trend.
Then when the Falcons were up 28-3, I said well, Matt Ryan is about to break this thing....

 

[PatsGirl2011]

The fact that we did not win in 07 makes me just weary of this ... whatever it is. I mean I was so sure Brady was the one to break whatever stupid superstition that was affiliated with the MVP and winning superbowl. Then when Manning's Broncos were destroyed by the Seahawks, I started to watch the trend.
Then when the Falcons were up 28-3, I said well, Matt Ryan is about to break this thing....

None of these games were lost because the QB was named MVP.

 

[VectorPrime]

Brady is going to get it, no question about it. Now if Wentz never got hurt I would have bet on him due to Brady's mediocre last month.

 

[Ring 6]

The fact that we did not win in 07 makes me just weary of this ... whatever it is. I mean I was so sure Brady was the one to break whatever stupid superstition that was affiliated with the MVP and winning superbowl. Then when Manning's Broncos were destroyed by the Seahawks, I started to watch the trend.
Then when the Falcons were up 28-3, I said well, Matt Ryan is about to break this thing....

Do you also believe that what you wear, or eat, or where you sit, or if you are personally overconfident in a win has an impact on what happens on the field?

 

[Betterthanmost]

Do you also believe that what you wear, or eat, or where you sit, or if you are personally overconfident in a win has an impact on what happens on the field?

When I think? I don't believe any external force influences sports games, but I like to escape into self delusion that my favorite chair and lack of MVP for any of our players played a part in us winning? Makes sense? Exactly!

 

[brdmaverick]

When I think? I don't believe any external force influences sports games, but I like to escape into self delusion that my favorite chair and lack of MVP for any of our players played a part in us winning? Makes sense? Exactly!

Makes perfect sense for someone with a username that sounds like voodoo

 

[TinhWoodhead]

Brady is going to get it, no question about it. Now if Wentz never got hurt I would have bet on him due to Brady's mediocre last month.

haters are going to say this is his “career achievement award”

 

[Ring 6]

haters are going to say this is his “career achievement award”

Why would anyone say that?
He led the league in passing, and QBs the #1 ranked offense by yards and #2 by points scored.
He thoroughly deserves the award. This was a top 5 brady season by pretty much all measures.

 

[Angelpats]

When I think? I don't believe any external force influences sports games, but I like to escape into self delusion that my favorite chair and lack of MVP for any of our players played a part in us winning? Makes sense? Exactly!

The mvp part doesn’t make sense but I have to agree with the favorite sitting spot played a part in the last win.

 

[pherein]

Really don't think Brees will ever get an MVP. For some reason, he's just never good or sexy enough at 6ft to get one, but I do think if Brees was a rookie with 72 comp% , much like when Rogers got one with his stats, and Brees was playing for Vikings or Eagles he would be a sure win if he was 6ft3 lol.
But I do think PM should mail him 3-4 of the ones he has, with a sorry note.
After all, if anyone doesn't think that NO wouldn't still be a joke year after year if Brees didn't walk in the building in 2006, and even this year would still not make the playoffs without him.. well...than I'm not sure they know what Most Valuable Player for a Team in the NFL means.
I think Brady deserves it though, and Russell Wilson, Wilson is that team, but i hate runnings QB's

 

[Ring 6]

Really don't think Brees will ever get an MVP. For some reason, he's just never good or sexy enough at 6ft to get one, but I do think if Brees was a rookie with 72 comp% , much like when Rogers got one with his stats, and Brees was playing for Vikings or Eagles he would be a sure win if he was 6ft3 lol.
But I do think PM should mail him 3-4 of the ones he has, with a sorry note.
After all, if anyone doesn't think that NO wouldn't still be a joke year after year if Brees didn't walk in the building in 2006, and even this year would still not make the playoffs without him.. well...than I'm not sure they know what Most Valuable Player for a Team in the NFL means.
I think Brady deserves it though, and Russell Wilson, Wilson is that team, but i hate runnings QB's

But mvp isn’t about making awful teams decent it’s about being the best of the best both in your teams success and your role in it. Really only 09 and 11 were years Brees would get consideration under those standards. Rodgers was 15-1 in 11 and manning:Brees was a toss up in 09.

I hope we never get to the point of giving out awards by trying to judge who had worse players around him because it’s supposed to about accomplishment not excuses.

 

[pherein]

But mvp isn’t about making awful teams decent it’s about being the best of the best both in your teams success and your role in it. Really only 09 and 11 were years Brees would get consideration under those standards. Rodgers was 15-1 in 11 and manning:Brees was a toss up in 09.

I hope we never get to the point of giving out awards by trying to judge who had worse players around him because it’s supposed to about accomplishment not excuses.

Well, then defenses are excuses because without top defenses most QB's wouldn't have MVPs or SB or considered great because the defense saved them and gave then SB they could never get on their own on a lesser team.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

The obvious answer is Peyton Manning with Ray Lewis killed a guy as runner up.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Really don't think Brees will ever get an MVP. For some reason, he's just never good or sexy enough at 6ft to get one, but I do think if Brees was a rookie with 72 comp% , much like when Rogers got one with his stats, and Brees was playing for Vikings or Eagles he would be a sure win if he was 6ft3 lol.
But I do think PM should mail him 3-4 of the ones he has, with a sorry note.
After all, if anyone doesn't think that NO wouldn't still be a joke year after year if Brees didn't walk in the building in 2006, and even this year would still not make the playoffs without him.. well...than I'm not sure they know what Most Valuable Player for a Team in the NFL means.
I think Brady deserves it though, and Russell Wilson, Wilson is that team, but i hate runnings QB's

1. It’s a travesty that Brees hasn’t won the award. Unfortunately for him the defense has taken him out of the running many years. I was in complete shock in 2009 and realized this award is political when Manning won, not just won, but in a complete landslide over Brees. Manning NEVER had to deal with major injuries besides in 2010 and he struggled to an embarrassing degree. Brees had much less talent in9 and put up a 109.6 rating to Manning’s 99.9. That’s an enormous difference, even though Manning had his (as always) two Hall of Fame receivers. Brees finished 13-2; Manning finished 14-2. Manning had the better defense. The other part of it is “the narrative” which somehow ALWAYS went to Manning, some absurd perception of carrying a terrible team despite that he had a phenomenal supporting cast. Brees took the Saints on his shoulders and should have won the “the narrative” but somehow lost. It’s really incredible the lengths they went to in order to ballwash Manning. And now there is “fatigue” about Brady’s excellence and he idea that “he doesn’t need any more,”but Manning absolutely needed that fifth. Also, Brees was just unfortunate that in 2011 he had a historic season but Rodgers had a more historic season. It’s ironic that Ryan and Newton have MVP awards in that division, while Brees is easily more worthy of having the hardware.

2. Russell Wilson does not deserve to be in the discussion. The Seahawks are always a middle ranked offense and this year is no difference. Wilson put up some historically bad first half numbers; I think he had something like 5-6 games where the offense failed to score a TD before halftime. He has no sense of the pocket and is responsible for many sacks, which don’t count against his stats. But even if he was lights out this season and you don’t agree with the previous points, missing the playoffs is rightfully a non-starter for MVP because he failed to accomplish the minimum goal of regular season success. Another way of thinking about it: if you put any other QB on Seattle this year, they can’t have a worse ultimate result than Wilson, which is failing to qualify for the playoffs. But theoretically, a different quarterback could have made the playoffs. Maybe they would have it maybe they wouldn’t have, but there is virtually no bar that they would need to set higher, since the Seahawks failed in the regular season, and the QB is most correlated player to team success and failure.