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I don't believe we have any idea what has been offered. So that kind of ends the conversation right there.When in NFL history was a GM stupid enough to pass on the 12th overall pick to keep a back up QB just in case the starter goes down.
But what if Brady goes down and we find out that Garoppolo isn't a playoff caliber QB? Say Brady goes down with an ACL and Garoppolo plays for a large portion of the year and after teams develop a book on him, they discover that if they bump his receivers off the line and he starts to hold onto the ball too long and gets sacked a lot of pressured into making dumb decisions. That has been his weakness in his preseason play.
Say that the Pats were offered the 12th overall pick and the next JJ Watt was on the board at that spot.
If the Pats are offered a high first round pick for Garoppolo and they pass on it because he wants Garoppolo as a back up for 2017 and is prepared to let him go in 2018, Belichick needs to go through the concussion protocol. You don't give up a high or even low first round pick for a back up QB for one year. You just don't.
But playing along, the discussion isn't, let's say, #12 or nothing. It's #12 minus what we could get next year which would be less than #12 but more than a maybe #3 comp pick. How much more I don't know.
There's only one thing I know for sure in all of this, whether we trade him or not, however good or not he is, if you don't have a QB you have nothing and if you don't have a QB it's really difficult to get one. So there is massive insurance value in keeping him. How does that insurance value compare to the trade value ? That I can't answer not knowing what offers there are.
As for your hypotheticals (and I'm not being argumentative, I would trade him but I see the other side), 1) no GM before has had to deal with a 40 year old QB of Brady's quality to potentially replace and 2) JJ Watt quality is unlikely. Solid starter more likely.
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