The Sports media are missing the reasons and value-add to the Garappolo Trade

[DW Toys]

Cousins:
Listening to the radio hosts and sports pundits in this area are driving me crazy. First of all it is about opinion with them. Fact is irrelevant.

Why would Jimmy G want to sit a few more years behind Brady? Then as some say, JG takes a Team friendly deal to sit more years instead of millions more and a starting gig. Nope.

Even if it meant JG going to the lowly Browns, they did pick up some O Line help to start to be serious. I am sure the Pats would like to see him land in a more secure operation (kudos if that is the case) but this is a business.

Jimmy G will not be worth any more sitting on the bench in 2017 when he also becomes a FA and years end. Almost $50mm for your CAP on two QB's in 2018? No

An added value for a Team trading for JG is he is cheap this year. You have financial protection. You could wait and see how he does before a big contact unlike Osweiler (more on him follows).

The future blue print was outed when Brissett was Drafted in the Third last year. All this noise on he's not ready ........is just noise. Did BB say this? Of course if you had both players and needed a back-up QB, JG has more experience. I get that.

Does a Team comprise a roster with the distinct goal of "my QB is going to get hurt", therefor lets build our Team around that possibility, and use our resources around a back-up QB who could hold a clip board in the best scenario? Nope. ..........Brissett and JG could ironically be Brady's off spring age wise, and at their age, they got hurt. Luck and the Good Lord.

The return for Jimmy G brings more value for the good of the Team today. It must outweigh keeping him.

Another fact is there are at least three good franchise type QB's coming out in the 2018 Draft unlike this crap 2017 class where JG is the best option. Where will Jimmy G fit against them in 2018? He is in a pack nest year, and by the way you have to pay through the nose if you pick up his Tag (as in Tag and trade).

Any time BB acquires a player or makes a trade, his first comment is "it was a good value". Trading for picks to supplement a great FA/Trade off season would be a good value. Jimmy G is great wampum!

The point that BB emptied the first two rounds of his Draft says a few things; 1-He feels the players traded are known commodities and better than the 17% success rate of an average NFL Team's Draft; 2- He already knows he has some ammunition coming back to restock the early rounds be it JG or Malcom; 3-He feels the Draft class is not as talented as many think ..........and that is not the answer in my estimation because he is spending his time (why?) testing and scouting top round picks in this Draft.

BB already knows his offers. He is holding out for more I am sure.

But, this is the point the media misses saying BB will wait until the night of the Draft. That does NOT make sense knowing the Patriots.

Scenario: Say we get the #12 and #33 from Cleveland (and?). Do we think BB will stay at #12, or trade down and get more picks...yep, that is what he will do?! So knowing the Pats have #12 now, 4 weeks from the Draft, allows even more trade discussion of Teams behind pick #12 today, and who offers the most for that pick BB will not use anyway. Or if they do wait, even more so say pick #33 where say a QB still on the board, might create a trade frenzy .But Do the Trade now brings the most bids for a #12 he won't keep.

My last thought and the one most hated in this forum I am sure. Let's have some positive ideas on the #1 pick! The Browns might pay more ransom if we took... gulp.......... Osweiler. Why? I don't know. As a back up he might be as competent as Brissett with more experience. Might be better if we trade JG to sit with a QB( even a messed up one) who has even made it to the Playoffs two years in a row (albeit shaky), rather than take yet another rookie QB if Brissett is deemed ready as our two or three year from now starting QB

Maybe Josh can turn him around to be serviceable and make the right decisions. He did not play badly in the Playoff game against us minus a couple of plays. The ultimate in highway robbery could be is if he can be made a better QB here and we get a good pick for him in 2018 (or during this season if a QB on another Team goes down).

The Browns are on the hook for his $16mm salary. We could offer to take him say at $2mm (Browns pay balance), and I believe we can rehabilitate him for a pick in 2018, or at the worse case cut him......If ...the Browns step up and give us the #1 pick et.al, Humorously like in the movie Draft Day, the Browns save money by trading an asset they never wanted.

Thoughts? Angry comments?
DW Toys

 

[Big Bucks]

Apparently, there are half a dozen teams wanting to trade out the top 12, due to the depth not sure the value is there to trade down this year. Would prefer 2018 first

 

[DW Toys]

Apparently, there are half a dozen teams wanting to trade out the top 12, due to the depth not sure the value is there to trade down this year. Would prefer 2018 first

Reasonable reply.
DW Toys

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Apparently, there are half a dozen teams wanting to trade out the top 12, due to the depth not sure the value is there to trade down this year. Would prefer 2018 first

Part of this may also be that teams have caught onto the Patriots and some other teams that have preferred trading down for more picks. It seems like around the league that has now become more accepted as the new conventional thinking. Of course, that can create another opportunity to go in the other direction, since the supply and demand is reversed.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This is the 2nd long post by DW that to me seems reasonable and well thought out. I am worried that I may be going senile.
The Ost suggestion is creative thinking outside the box but I don't think #1 is ever gonna happen, so I'm ignoring that part.
#s 12 & 33 should happen but 2 parties need agree. I'm in the camp that JAG has little trade value to the Pats in 2018.

 

[jmt57]

The Browns are on the hook for his $16mm salary. We could offer to take him say at $2mm (Browns pay balance)


I know this is done in other sports but if I am not mistaken, cannot be done in the NFL. The workaround would be that prior to the trade Cleveland would have to convert $14 million of Osweiler's salary to a bonus first, and then trade him.

I can't envision the Browns doing that, plus having to commit a sizable amount of cap space and real money for a Garoppolo extension, plus trade away draft picks.

For the $2 million in savings there's not much value for Cleveland.


Also if the Browns (or any other team, such as SF) is going to trade for Garoppolo then it makes sense to sign him to an extension as soon as possible. If they wait then they run the risk of him being merely a one-year rental, with JG opting for free agency and a potential bidding war 11 months from now.

 

[stinkypete]

Apparently, there are half a dozen teams wanting to trade out the top 12, due to the depth not sure the value is there to trade down this year. Would prefer 2018 first

I believe this to be the most likely reason that Belichick is holding out.

I think there is zero chance that the Browns trade #1 overall. Garrett looks the part of a generational defensive player.

This draft is light on legitimate blue chip talent. Outside of Garrett and Lattimore, the best prospects play low value positions (LB, S, RB, TE). Outside of the top 10, we are looking at an interchangeable cluster of late 1st round types. Pick 12 carries less value in this draft class, and will command less value in a trade. The best hope with pick 12 is that a team like San Francisco or the Jets packages next year's first and an early 2nd for Trubisky or Watson, but if a deal falls through you're stuck reaching on a player you very well could get with #33.

I believe that Belichick is willing to trade Garoppolo, but a deal will hinge on the return producing enough value to draft a QB of the future.

 

[fxmallon]

There's the problem of Ost's ego when it comes to a respectable backup for Brady. Then again, because it's Brady, he may accept the role with more grace. In any case, he would be an attractive and safe backup, purely from an ability angle.

 

[XLIX]

An added value for a Team trading for JG is he is cheap this year. You have financial protection. You could wait and see how he does before a big contact unlike Osweiler (more on him follows).

I like most of what you wrote. It is well thought out and put together, so please don't take this the wrong way when I only respond to the one thing I disagree with. Having said that....

No team is going to give the Patriots the bounty of picks they want for a 1-year trial at Garoppolo's current deal. Then they will have the problem in 1 year where they have to franchise him right away (or lose him to UFA).

Any team interested in trading for Garoppolo would have to have worked out a deal with him in advance. They would need some protection of their own.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

If you look at 2016 in isolation, then keeping Garoppolo is likely better. I don't know what the chance of Tom missing a game or more from injury is, but it can't be negligible. I'd assume something like 10%. As you get older, recovery time increases, avocado ice cream or no. So JG has clear optionality value.

But you are absolutely correct that JG's value in trade is never higher than now. The lack of a first and second rounder absolutely hurts in the long run because those are potentially good players that come very cheap.

But here's the key piece of information we don't know - what Belichick thinks of Brissett. If he is a potential Brady replacement, then trading JG makes more sense. Note that because of the suspension last year, maybe Brissett never even took any snaps with the first team in pre-season. So it's unfair to judge his one-game uninjured performance, where he still played at least adequately.

The other piece in the puzzle is what is happening with Butler. A trade for him could bring a significant draft pick or two. So that definitely interacts with the JG decision.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The fact that they designated Brissett as IR with the designation to return as well as taking him on road trips when on IR ( a rare event) gives one the impression that the team views him higher than other backup QBs in the past and maybe as a possible successor to TFB......

 

[patfanken]

In the end there can be only one reason to keep JG on the roster for this season. Just ONE! And that is the belief within the FO that Tom Brady will NOT play for the Patriots past the 2017 season. It's that simple, folks.

The "franchise theory" doesn't hold water by any stretch of the imagination. Besides the kid wants to PLAY, not to sit another 2 years. No, JG is playing his last season for the Pats UNLESS Brady is a goner after this season. And do you really believe that Brady won't be the best QB the Pats could put on the field for the 2018 season.

Now I know the fact that Brady might be "willing" to play 5 or 6 more years, is VERY speculative. But I DO know that by any reasonable expectation based on his last 3 seasons of play' Tom Brady being able to play at at top 10 level for the next 2 season is about a sure a bet as you can make today.

If there are those who would keep JG on the roster this season purely as insurance for a team looking to win one more superbowl, then I would opine that you are wasting a valuable asset, 3 years in the making, for nothing. IF Brissett isn't your cup of tea, then I would suggest Ryan Fitzpatrick as a quality back up, who might thrive in that role..

As for Cleveland giving us a reasonable offer, I don't see how they cannot give one worthwhile. They simply have TOO many picks over the next 2 seasons to build long term success and they know it. Something like the 12th, 52nd and a conditiional pick in 2018 that would likely end up a 2nd but possibly a first should do the trick. To the Browns Garapolo would be cheap at the price.

Ergo, my strong belief is that IF JG is on the roster come September than we will be watching Tom Brady's last season as te Pats QB. There is simply no other possible explanation.

 

[tom444]

I don't know what BB is thinking, but if I'm in the middle of a series of SB runs why would I trade a backup QB that I'm sure might be able to keep the run going if my number one goes down?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I don't know what BB is thinking, but if I'm in the middle of a series of SB runs why would I trade a backup QB that I'm sure might be able to keep the run going if my number one goes down?

Because starting in one year you can't afford to keep the backup with the salary cap. Sure JAGwads will show that theoretically there's lots of cap space next season. They forget three things
1) player agents know this too and demand and get bigger contracts with cap inflation; this erodes cap "surpluses"
2) the Pats recipe for success is DEPTH. That requires a competent bench, one that costs cap money, money that would be tied up in a 2nd franchise QB. BB will not abandon his recipe for success.
3) No franchise level QB wants to sit on the bench wasting away during his best physical years.

The recipe for getting to & winning SBs is NOT putting most of your cap into 2 franchise QBs at the expense of team quality and depth.

 

[tom444]

Because starting in one year you can't afford to keep the backup with the salary cap. ...........

Worry about that starting in one year.

 

[Tony2046]

The fact that they designated Brissett as IR with the designation to return as well as taking him on road trips when on IR ( a rare event) gives one the impression that the team views him higher than other backup QBs in the past and maybe as a possible successor to TFB......

Was that to expedite the learning curve while anticipating a JG trade?

 

[BlueThunder]

This year's draft cannot come soon enough.........

Too many questions surrounding Butler and JG that have to be answered....

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Worry about that starting in one year.

No
Antithetical to BB's thinking AGAIN
He plays the long game
As I described he KNOWS that things fall apart after this year relative to keeping JAG so why not extract max value this year?
Of course extracting ANY value for JAG depends on circumstances beyond BB's control. A GM who recognizes the value of a quality QB trained by the best over maybe hits in the draft that may take a few years to develop even if good picks.

I would not be surprised to see JAG stay a Pat one more season because BB will not give him away, i.e. for a 2nd round pick

 

[tom444]

No
Antithetical to BB's thinking AGAIN
...........................
I would not be surprised to see JAG stay a Pat one more season because BB will not give him away, i.e. for a 2nd round pick

Now which is it?

 

[DW Toys]

I don't know what BB is thinking, but if I'm in the middle of a series of SB runs why would I trade a backup QB that I'm sure might be able to keep the run going if my number one goes down?

But keep this in mind. Let's say they get a first #12 and a second#33 and a second in 2018, will not Bill maximize this trade and more than likely trade down and perhaps double the take?

In other words you might get six top round (1-3) picks for Jimmy G. If that is the case why on earth would you not trade him?

If your lip is still pointing out, get next years First rounder and go for one of the top better 2018 QB Draft class. You will have ammo.

OR....I am inclined to take Osweiler as a throw in (+12,+33,+2nd in 2018). If you can rewire him (Josh M) he has no choice than to sit behind TB12 and he might not be a bad option (fixed PLEASE). At the least, maximize him to trade him in 2018. A couple bad plays and missed throws changed and the Texans beat us in the Playoffs. But basically he played decent. He outplayed TB in the first half.

Wouldn't a new and improved Osweiler piss off the rest of the NFL?

Billy O is good but Josh is a better OC to get a game plan for getting the most of a QB (See Brissett).

Hate to say it as both these QBs are flawed and I might take Osweiler over Mallett , who as you remember was our only backup a few years back.

If you can make this into six top picks, who would NOT do a trade? Don't think of it as three picks.
DW Toys