Steve McIntyre blog

[eom]

Raises a couple interesting points I hadn't see mentioned

http://climateaudit.org/2015/06/23/deflategate-and-errors-in-the-wells-report/#more-21173

 

[Clonamery]

Read the replies too.

 

[RunAmok]

Holy Crap!! I completely missed that Exponent changed the starting temperate of the tests between the two gauges! Another blatant example of Exponent gaming the data (and pretending that they did not) to get the results they wanted!!

In this scenario, the game temperature and the halftime measurement temperatures were set to the
same values (for the same reasons) as the experiments done with the Non-Logo Gauge (48°F for
the game and between 72 and 73°F for the halftime measurement temperatures). However, the
pre-game temperature was set at 67°F because this was the only temperature that allowed the Colts balls to subsequently reach their average pressure during the simulated Locker Room Period.
Any pre-game temperature that was higher than 67°F resulted in the Colts balls reaching the Game
Day halftime average pressure later than 13.5 minutes into the Locker Room Period.

 

[patsfan13]

McIntyre has a history of uncovering statistical fraud. Wells sole job was to cover up and protect the NFL execs who were involved in framing the Pats.

 

[Clonamery]

Holy Crap!! I completely missed that Exponent changed the starting temperate of the tests between the two gauges! Another blatant example of Exponent gaming the data (and pretending that they did not) to get the results they wanted!!

In this scenario, the game temperature and the halftime measurement temperatures were set to the
same values (for the same reasons) as the experiments done with the Non-Logo Gauge (48°F for
the game and between 72 and 73°F for the halftime measurement temperatures). However, the
pre-game temperature was set at 67°F because this was the only temperature that allowed the Colts balls to subsequently reach their average pressure during the simulated Locker Room Period.
Any pre-game temperature that was higher than 67°F resulted in the Colts balls reaching the Game
Day halftime average pressure later than 13.5 minutes into the Locker Room Period.

POW! POW!

 

[eom]

Read the replies too.

Bro tip

This sums it up really well and has pretty much been my complaint with all this talk from the begining.

Another way to appreciate the slightness of the amount in dispute is to convert the pressures to football temperatures.

The amount in dispute is about 1 deg F during an interval in which temperatures are going from 48 to 73.5 deg F.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Did Wells think no one would figure this stuff out or is he science challenged? I go with he's a shyster myself.

 

[Dr Pain]

Did Wells think no one would figure this stuff out or is he science challenged? I go with he's a shyster myself.

You saw how he reacted when questioned, he lost it. All ego.

 

[Froob]

POW! POW!

Just a big fish in a small pond.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

This is where Kraft needs to step up and demand his apology and end this fiasco OR sue the league for defamation! If the Pats can show via science that their was no deflation and the league's malice towards the Pats they could win. But even the very threat of such a lawsuit should make Goodell back down, because if he and the league lost it, then he would surely be toast!!

 

[Rawky77]

McIntyre has a history of uncovering statistical fraud. Wells sole job was to cover up and protect the NFL execs who were involved in framing the Pats.

That's why Pash, NFL* General Counsel was appointed at the out set by Roger the Dodger to co-chair the report with Wells. Which is a fact most people forget in with all the chaos in reporting that has gone on.

NFL Statement: Investigation Into Patriots' Deflategate Ongoing
Published January 23, 2015

The NFL on Friday afternoon issued a statement on the Deflategate scandal: "Our office has been conducting an investigation as to whether the footballs used ... complied with the specifications that are set forth in the playing rules." The investigation, led jointly by NFL Exec VP & General Counsel Jeff Pash and outside counsel Ted Wells, "began promptly on Sunday night." More from the statement: "Over the past several days, nearly 40 interviews have been conducted, including of Patriots personnel, game officials, and third parties with relevant information and expertise. We have obtained and are continuing to obtain additional information, including video and other electronic information and physical evidence" (NFL). There is no timetable given for the conclusion of the investigation (THE DAILY).

 

[BradyFTW!]

Did Wells think no one would figure this stuff out or is he science challenged? I go with he's a shyster myself.

I'd be willing to bet that Wells had no idea how to interpret the science and didn't even try. He just knew what conclusion he was hired to arrive at, and knew that Exponent was going to give him the necessary data to arrive at htat conclusion.

 

[eom]

What relevance does pash have -- he's just another independent investigator

 

[BradyFTW!]

Interesting note from the comments:

Posted Jun 25, 2015 at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Reply
Steve, were you in contact with Tom Brady’s team. I think they could have used this a few days earlier.

Steve: I had corresponded with the Patriots’ lawyer about 4 weeks ago, saying that they really needed to do technical analysis on the science. He sent a polite reply. I had intended to write something up about 3 weeks ago, but have been feeling really tired lately and not getting much done. I sent a slightly earlier version to the Patriots’ lawyer a day before the hearings and he said that he forwarded it to Brady’s reps, but I didn’t hear from them. I’ve also corresponded with Kevin Hassett of AEI and sent him a copy of an earlier draft. I get the impression that Brady’s team didn’t focus as much on the science of the Wells Report as they ought to have IMO. Some of the press commentary criticized Brady for more or less re-iterating that he didn’t have anything to do with any deflation, but, if there wasn’t any deflation, then I’m not sure what else he could be expected to say.​

 

[eom]

I'd be willing to bet that Wells had no idea how to interpret the science and didn't even try. He just knew what conclusion he was hired to arrive at, and knew that Exponent was going to give him the necessary data to arrive at htat conclusion.

Well, seeing as how exponent published their findings the same day he issued his report I assume he had a great deal of confidence in them

 

[Jlaff]

Holy Crap!! I completely missed that Exponent changed the starting temperate of the tests between the two gauges! Another blatant example of Exponent gaming the data (and pretending that they did not) to get the results they wanted!!

In this scenario, the game temperature and the halftime measurement temperatures were set to the
same values (for the same reasons) as the experiments done with the Non-Logo Gauge (48°F for
the game and between 72 and 73°F for the halftime measurement temperatures). However, the
pre-game temperature was set at 67°F because this was the only temperature that allowed the Colts balls to subsequently reach their average pressure during the simulated Locker Room Period.
Any pre-game temperature that was higher than 67°F resulted in the Colts balls reaching the Game
Day halftime average pressure later than 13.5 minutes into the Locker Room Period.

Had to read that twice, but good job.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Why do people still thin that there were text messages that "actively" (my word) said they were deflating footballs. there's nothing of the sort. Or is it the 16 occurrences of the same text message that is confusing these people. Plus the one where he was told to "Deflate and give someone the jkt".

 

[RunAmok]

Why do people still thin that there were text messages that "actively" (my word) said they were deflating footballs. there's nothing of the sort. Or is it the 16 occurrences of the same text message that is confusing these people. Plus the one where he was told to "Deflate and give someone the jkt".

The text messages are such a red herring and yet that seems to be the smoking guns to most idiots. There are 3 texts that have some version of the word deflate (deflator, deflating and deflat) but Wells mentions them 23 times! He also mixes the sequence of the texts to make them appear more consistent when in fact they are 5 months apart from the first and second and 6 weeks between second and third texts. Some long running, nefarious conspiracy.

The first one is in May 2014 during the offseason. There was zero talk of footballs.
The second is in reference to TB being so pissed off that the balls were inflated to 16 psi during the Oct 17, 2015 Jets game.
The third ("deflat and give someone that jkt") that has been synchronized to the exact time when Jastremski is shown on the Pats sidelines during the Nov 30, 2015 GB game walking around with a jacket (jkt) looking to give it to someone.

That's like connecting 3 random dots on a page and coming up with the Mona Lisa.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

The text messages are such a red herring and yet that seems to be the smoking guns to most idiots. There are 3 texts that have some version of the word deflate (deflator, deflating and deflat) but Wells mentions them 23 times! He also mixes the sequence of the texts to make them appear more consistent when in fact they are 5 months apart from the first and second and 6 weeks between second and third texts. Some long running, nefarious conspiracy.

The first one is in May 2014 during the offseason. There was zero talk of footballs.
The second is in reference to TB being so pissed off that the balls were inflated to 16 psi during the Oct 17, 2015 Jets game.
The third ("deflat and give someone that jkt") that has been synchronized to the exact time when Jastremski is shown on the Pats sidelines during the Nov 30, 2015 GB game walking around with a jacket (jkt) looking to give it to someone.

That's like connecting 3 random dots on a page and coming up with the Mona Lisa.

Thanks, that's more or less what I thought, but the sheoples obviously have been drinking the mass-media generated haterade.

Then there's the going to ESPN one, that's their smoking gun...out of context of course.

 

[RayClay]

This is where Kraft needs to step up and demand his apology and end this fiasco OR sue the league for defamation! If the Pats can show via science that their was no deflation and the league's malice towards the Pats they could win. But even the very threat of such a lawsuit should make Goodell back down, because if he and the league lost it, then he would surely be toast!!

Or they lose a lawsuit because, under the powers they gave the commissioner, they have no case, and the whining loser owners coalesce around goodell and against the patriots, because what else are they going to do, try to beat the patriots fair and square.

I find Kraft's apologizing for Goodell's behavior in the Rice case and elsewhere embarrassing in hindsight, but i think it's because he enjoyed being "assistant commissioner" and thought he could control Goodell.

Now that goodell's screwed him publicly, I still think he's going to get goodell if he can, but it won't be by begging him to lift the punishment, then losing a lawsuit where he has no case.

The player's union and Brady have tons of leverage and Kraft, as a team owner has little, and that would be as an owner finding his opportunity to turn other owners against goodell at the right moment.

Sue for defamation of character because the commissioner applied the unlimited power I gave him? Not much chance of winning that argument. I can't sue for defamation of character because I don't think I was speeding, but got a publicly recorded ticket.

I may be wrong about Kraft wanting to get goodell, but at least it's based on a process that could possibly occur, that is voting him out.