Rest of the season....Advantage Patriots?

[Boston Boxer]

Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens (L)
- we struggle with mobile QBs
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles (W)
- coming off a bye week, we will win a tough one. Eagles are alway a tough game
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys (W)
- we will struggle against the run, but we dont lose at home
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans (L)
- Texans will find a way to win this one
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs (L)
- Mahomes will be healthy by then...but again, we dont lose at home

 

[SBLIII]

Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens (L)
- we struggle with mobile QBs
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles (W)
- coming off a bye week, we will win a tough one. Eagles are alway a tough game
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys (W)
- we will struggle against the run, but we dont lose at home
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans (L)
- Texans will find a way to win this one
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs (L)
- Mahomes will be healthy by then...but again, we dont lose at home

3 losses during that 5 game stretch? That would be a slight disappointment.

 

[shmessy]

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

I take any of those 75% and under games as worst case situation losses. So low/worst case scenario? I'd say 12-4.

Most probable? 13-3 or 14-2

I agree with the 1/6 chance at this point of a perfect regualr season. Sounds about right, imho.

.

 

[wizwor]

You know they're on bye right now? They'll be hosting us, coming off bye. It's their superbowl because it's their chance to secure a first round bye. They don't play KC.

Which is exactly what Bill is telling the team right now. They will be ready. Count on it!

 

[dannydyn]

Like everyone else, I don't know what the outcome of any of the remaining games will be, but I’ll take a stab at ranking the remaining schedule in order of difficulty from hardest to easiest:


1. @ Ravens - This is the toughest game on the schedule IMO. On the road, LJ is playing lights out, hard to defend against, and they have a good defense.

2. @ Texans – Watson too, is playing good right now, and they usually give us a good fight. The fact this game is on the road, doesn’t make it any easier.

3. Vs. Chiefs – Putting this game at #3 under the assumption Mahomes is back. He never makes things easy, but their defense is average at best, we’re at home, and Reid is a goddamn ******.

4. Vs. Bills – Divisional game, and they look pretty good this year, great defense, but I don’t see us losing that one at home. Josh Allen will choke this game away.

5. @ Philly – this is the last road game I consider somewhat challenging. Eagles are running hot/cold and are tough to gauge, but right now they are trending downwards.

6. Vs. Cowboys – Like the Eagles, tough to judge the Cowboys. They killed the Eagles but also lost to the Jets. We’re at home, I think we cruise here to a W comfortably.

7. Vs. Browns – They have a couple of great receivers but the supporting cast is a joke. I foresee Mayfield and his absurdly high INT-TD ratio playing a factor here. He’ll be seeing ghosts.

8. @ Cinci – you can argue they should be the easiest match left here, but Dolphins are rivals, and this game will be on the road, so I’m putting this game second to last in terms of chance to lose.

9. Vs. Dolphins – Not much to say here. We should be able to kill them at home and wrap (hopefully) HFA throughout.


Go Pats

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

I look at it this way. Of the remaining teams we play, only 5 teams are going to start QB's with more than 3 years of NFL experience- Eagles-Wentz, Bengals- the Red Rifle, and LOLphins-Fitzmagic, Dallas-Dak Prescot, Texans-Watson.

This Pats defense should be able to dominate the inexperienced QB's (including a home game against a hobbled Maholmes).

Bengals and LOLphins are in tank mode.

Eagles defense is atrocious.

Dallas is poorly coached.

I'm pretty confident in our ability to win any/all of the remaining games absent significant injury.

 

[borg]

Get to 15-0
Let Old Coot Shula mouth off and embarrass himself as he belittles BB and NE.
BB remains quiet, never uttering the the man’s name once as if he doesn’t exist.
Smash the fish in epic fashion..... 57-0.
Win 3 more
Wave bye bye to Donny’s most cherished possession

 

[shmessy]

Get to 15-0
Let Old Coot Shula mouth off and embarrass himself as he belittles BB and NE.
BB remains quiet, never uttering the the man’s name once as if he doesn’t exist.
Smash the fish in epic fashion..... 57-0.
Win 3 more
Wave bye bye to Donny’s most cherished possession

I just hope he's not too far gone (like Steinbrenner was in 2004) to understand what he loses at that time........

.

 

[Haterproof]

Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens (L)
- we struggle with mobile QBs
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles (W)
- coming off a bye week, we will win a tough one. Eagles are alway a tough game
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys (W)
- we will struggle against the run, but we dont lose at home
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans (L)
- Texans will find a way to win this one
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs (L)
- Mahomes will be healthy by then...but again, we dont lose at home

This isn't one of those Pats defenses that struggled to defend mobile QBs in years past! I believe Bill's game plan will be to make Lamar beat us with his arm!

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

I look at it this way. Of the remaining teams we play, only 5 teams are going to start QB's with more than 3 years of NFL experience- Eagles-Wentz, Bengals- the Red Rifle, and LOLphins-Fitzmagic, Dallas-Dak Prescot, Texans-Watson.

This Pats defense should be able to dominate the inexperienced QB's (including a home game against a hobbled Maholmes).

Bengals and LOLphins are in tank mode.

Eagles defense is atrocious.

Dallas is poorly coached.

I'm pretty confident in our ability to win any/all of the remaining games absent significant injury.

@Houston is the game that worries me the most.

@Ravens will be competitive as they're coming off a bye but I just don't see a 2nd year QB as much of a match against this defense.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

I think we are looking good.

Reason.....I use to think of wins or losses strictly with Offense as the deciding factor.
Now we have a kick butt DEFENSE. As long as Brady and the O can put up 20 on these teams we WIN

 

[Vindicate]

So, with discussion regarding the defense mostly pointing out how outright dominate they are, does anyone have an idea where the weakest link is?

By no means do I think any one unit of the defense is bad, or even average, but there's always a weakest link - even if the unit is above average.

I'm asking to then pose the question - which team is best poised to take advantage?

With our offense being pretty rough, I figure that's the best way to win. Focus on stifling Brady outright. By the way, you're in REALLY good shape when the main weakness of the team is a Brady led offense lol.

 

[Boston Boxer]

3 losses during that 5 game stretch? That would be a slight disappointment.

there is always that moment in the season where they slip up and the media falls all over themselves saying we are done and i told you so. then we never lose again and go rolling through the playoffs.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

OK, two can play this game...

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 5% Loss chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 40% Loss chance
BYE WEEK my estimate: 0% Loss chance
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 25% Loss chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 10% Loss chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 35% Loss chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 25% Loss chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 1% Loss chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 10% Loss chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 1% Loss chance

odds of Loss from here:

0.5 x 0.4 x o.0 x 0.25 x 0.1 x 0.35 x 0.25 x 0.01 x 0.1 x0.01 = 0 !!

= 0% chance of Losing! We're going 16-0 !!!!

Q.E.D.

(Palm Beach, Miguel & Quantum, check my math)

 

[SBLIII]

The odds are a bit optimistic

I would put it at

vs Browns 85%
vs Ravens 65%
vs Eagles 70%
vs Cowboys 80%
vs Texans 60%
vs Chiefs 70%
vs Bengals 90%
vs Bills 80%
vs Dolphins 99%

 

[supafly]

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

Not doubting your math of course, but they showed much lower odds during the game, which were approx. 5 percent. It would be very difficult, and I don’t expect it. The only way it would actually bother me is if they started 12-0 or 13-0, only to stumble in the last few games against sub-par competition. Even then, we’d still have the postseason to look forward to.

 

[nabwong]

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

 

[moosekill]

Ok Ill bet. What is your charity of choice? Straight up or with the spread? Colts and Baltimore are the best teams in the AFC right now. Better lines than the Pats and coached extremely well. Winning in Baltimore is gonna be tough. I think the Pats fall short.

The Baltimore game doesn't worry me at all. The Pats wont have an issue with a running QB's. They are too disciplined, contain, push up the middle and destroy him. He isn't that good a qb.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The Baltimore game doesn't worry me at all. The Pats wont have an issue with a running QB's. They are too disciplined, contain, push up the middle and destroy him. He isn't that good a qb.

They certainly had issues with running QBs prior to 2014. Nowadays not as much. I would expect Collins to be the spy on Jackson.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The last time Cleveland won in Foxboro, BB was their coach., I give tomorrow a 100% chance of a win.