Rest of the season....Advantage Patriots?

[RelocatedPatFan]

Not trying to look ahead, but taking a peak at the upcoming run, I have to wonder if this works out well for the Patriots (win or lose)

Rest of the Season:
Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins

If you had to pick the teams that have a chance against the Patriots (assuming health and players get healthy - including Mahommes), it would probably be Ravens, Chiefs, Colts and Texans.

We get to play 3 out of the 4. Would it not be to BB's advantage getting a look at a team and playing them a second time? Seems this gives us the edge.

Andy Reid, I believe, has as good or better record than BB when playing a team for a 2nd time in the same season. But, let's face it, Andy has to go all out on offense because he really has little to no defense (which might nullify any advantage he has - would be even worse for the Chiefs if they need to win more games to get a first round bye - forcing him to the playbook more)

Any given Sunday, I like the Patriots against any team, but in a re-match and with a probable lead in the conference, I think that gives BB/McD more to work with or less to show opposing teams (though we won't have any clarify before going to the Ravens. Should give the D plenty of film for a 2nd match-up -- if that happens)

 

[StairwayToSe7en]

I don't see a single loss on the remaining schedule.

 

[NashuaPats]

One game at a time. Our roster is changing and we haven’t beat anybody yet. Let’s not take our success for granted. Let’s beat the Browns...

... and trade for Howard...

 

[tasmlab]

Favored on paper in every game. Will probably lose 2-3 if I were to guess, which ends up a really good record for the season and probably first seed. Optimistic! But they'll have to play the games...

 

[mosslost]

Not trying to look ahead, but taking a peak at the upcoming run, I have to wonder if this works out well for the Patriots (win or lose)

Rest of the Season:
Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins

If you had to pick the teams that have a chance against the Patriots (assuming health and players get healthy - including Mahommes), it would probably be Ravens, Chiefs, Colts and Texans.

We get to play 3 out of the 4. Would it not be to BB's advantage getting a look at a team and playing them a second time? Seems this gives us the edge.

Andy Reid, I believe, has as good or better record than BB when playing a team for a 2nd time in the same season. But, let's face it, Andy has to go all out on offense because he really has little to no defense (which might nullify any advantage he has - would be even worse for the Chiefs if they need to win more games to get a first round bye - forcing him to the playbook more)

Any given Sunday, I like the Patriots against any team, but in a re-match and with a probable lead in the conference, I think that gives BB/McD more to work with or less to show opposing teams (though we won't have any clarify before going to the Ravens. Should give the D plenty of film for a 2nd match-up -- if that happens)

I look at it this way.

We have a two game lead on everyone except the Bills who we all expect to lose at least two more, probably more. But even assuming they go 13-3, we only need to go 6-3 with another win against them to win the division, with them going 8 and 2 which is unlikely.

For all the other 2 loss teams. They all would need to go 8 and 1, (or 9 and 1 in the case of the Colts) and beat us head to head when they have the chance, as long we manage to go 6 and 3 the rest of the way.

I don't see us going 5 and 4. So I think 6 and 3 is our floor.

I just don't think KC or Balt will go 8 and 1 including a win over us, or the Colts win out, or go 9 and 1 the rest of the way to force tie breaker scenarios with us.

If we go 6 and 3 HFA is ours. If we go 5 and 2 good night.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

 

[farn]

I look at it this way.

We have a two game lead on everyone except the Bills who we all expect to lose at least two more, probably more. But even assuming they go 13-3, we only need to go 6-3 with another win against them to win the division, with them going 8 and 2 which is unlikely.

For all the other 2 loss teams. They all would need to go 8 and 1, and beat us head to head when they have the chance, as long we manage to go 6 and 3 the rest of the way.

I don't see us going 5 and 4. So I think 6 and 3 is our floor.

I just don't think KC or Balt will go 8 and 1 including a win over us, or the Colts win out, or go 9 and 1 the rest of the way to force tie breaker scenarios with us.

If we go 6 and 3 HFA is ours. If we go 5 and 2 good night.

...or no ? (Got yer back, buddy)

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Was really talking about potential post-season competition and how much of an advantage it would be to us having played them earlier in the season (with the exception of the colts)

 

[denverpatsfan]

Not winning in Baltimore. Sorry.

 

[oldrover]

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

https://imgflip.com/gif-maker

 

[Janey]

With Brady as QB there’s always an advantage.

 

[SBLIII]

Not winning in Baltimore. Sorry.

bet against it and prove you did so.

if not shut your ass up

 

[PP2]

bet against it and prove you did so.

if not shut your ass up

You know they're on bye right now? They'll be hosting us, coming off bye. It's their superbowl because it's their chance to secure a first round bye. They don't play KC.

 

[denverpatsfan]

bet against it and prove you did so.

if not shut your ass up

Ok Ill bet. What is your charity of choice? Straight up or with the spread? Colts and Baltimore are the best teams in the AFC right now. Better lines than the Pats and coached extremely well. Winning in Baltimore is gonna be tough. I think the Pats fall short.

 

[Vindicate]

I'm getting the feeling that no one read his post.

And I definitely think it has its advantages to get a read early, but I guess the real question is which of those coaches is smart enough to throw a different look/gameplan in the playoffs?

 

[IllegalContact]

You know they're on bye right now? They'll be hosting us, coming off bye. It's their superbowl because it's their chance to secure a first round bye. They don't play KC.

they already lost to KC and they lost to the browns at home.....pretty handily

the ravens go as far as the lamar jackson schtick takes them

 

[Double TE]

Pats have played no one and Darnold sucks. Except Darnold beat the Cowboys and was AFC offensive player of the week and Dallas the next week beat Philly and handily. The NFL analysts are so freaking inconsistent in terms of their line of thinking. Pats have not been at 100% this year and are still smoking teams. Wait until Harry, Wynn and Burkhead are back and now Sanu is in the picture. Not to mention that NE did not even have Pat Chung last game and lost their #1 kicker.

 

[slam]

We get to play 3 out of the 4. Would it not be to BB's advantage getting a look at a team and playing them a second time? Seems this gives us the edge.

Seems that almost all of our playoff losses came to teams who we also played in the regular season.

2005 Broncos
2006 Colts
2007 Giants
2009 Ravens
2010 Jets
2011 Giants
2012 Ravens
2013 Broncos
2015 Broncos

2018 Eagles we didn't play in the regular season. This is the only playoff loss to a non-rematch team in the Belichick era.

Of course we've won many rematch playoff games, so I'm not saying it's a bad thing necessarily. Just not a great advantage.

 

[maust]

BB = Advantage Patriots
Other than that there's no game but the next one.

 

[Nehalem]

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

Given that the Patriots are 41-0 at home with Brady and Edelman I think you are underestimating their chances of beating the Browns and Dolphins