Rest of the season....Advantage Patriots?

[mgteich]

I believe that this is correct statistical approach.

Where I disagree a bit is with the estimates with regard to DAL, HOU and KC. I think that they are all high, by about 10% each.

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance

odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99

= 17% change of going 16-0

So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.

 

[The Scrizz]

I'm an any given Sunday kind of guy (ie a pessimist I guess). But none of these teams particularly scare me. They all have exploitable weaknesses same as the Pats. Thing is Pats do a magnificent job of attacking weakness on other teams and minimizing their own with scheming. It's called coaching.

 

[Doctor DDS]

Pats have won 20 straight home games (including playoffs - last loss was to the Panthers early 2017) and as the weather turns bad that should help the defense even more. I think the Eagles/Ravens will be the biggest tests remaining. Am guessing 14-2 but would not be surprised if they won more.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Here is what Vegas thinks:

Odds: Yes +350 | No -600

The top NFL player props for Week 8 and beyond

In probability term, that's midpoint between 22% and 14%, or 18% if I've done all the math right.

So pretty consistent with the view here.

 

[mgteich]

You have calculated the probability of losing all our games, which in indeed very, very close to zero, zero if if each is rounded to the nearest whole percentage.

OK, two can play this game...

Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 5% Loss chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 40% Loss chance
BYE WEEK my estimate: 0% Loss chance
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 25% Loss chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 10% Loss chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 35% Loss chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 25% Loss chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 1% Loss chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 10% Loss chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 1% Loss chance

odds of Loss from here:

0.5 x 0.4 x o.0 x 0.25 x 0.1 x 0.35 x 0.25 x 0.01 x 0.1 x0.01 = 0 !!

= 0% chance of Losing! We're going 16-0 !!!!

Q.E.D.

(Palm Beach, Miguel & Quantum, check my math)

 

[mgteich]

The last time Cleveland won in Foxboro, BB was their coach., I give tomorrow a 100% chance of a win.

I agree.

The last time an AFC team beat Brady and Edelman at home was NEVER.

 

[mgteich]

You state your error in the last sentence.

However, I also think that we are likely to win.

The Baltimore game doesn't worry me at all. The Pats wont have an issue with a running QB's. They are too disciplined, contain, push up the middle and destroy him. He isn't that good a qb.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

I don't see a single loss on the remaining schedule.

Meh. I can see us squandering two since we typically go 14-2 in great years. If I had to guess, we probably drop a close game to the Ravens and Texans on the road. If we can go 15-1 I'll be impressed and 16-0 would be phenomenal.

We haven't faced a top 10 team yet, barring the Bills continuing to pile up wins, so let's not count our chickens until we face a game or two from the tough stretch and continue to win.

 

[mgteich]

I agree

Your odds compute to 9%. However, I believe that you great overrate Cincy. I have that game at 99%, going me 10%.

So, You are saying that we have 1 chance in 11 of being undefeated in the regular season; I have it at 1 chance in 10; the most has it as one chance in 6.

The odds are a bit optimistic

I would put it at

vs Browns 85%
vs Ravens 65%
vs Eagles 70%
vs Cowboys 80%
vs Texans 60%
vs Chiefs 70%
vs Bengals 90%
vs Bills 80%
vs Dolphins 99%

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Given that the Patriots are 41-0 at home with Brady and Edelman I think you are underestimating their chances of beating the Browns and Dolphins

Do you think Bill might let a game slide -- even at home -- if we're sitting at 12-0 or 13-0 with a three game cushion for the #1 seed? The pursuit of perfection in 2007 became a distraction down the stretch, so I wonder if he would rest guys and get a look at different personnel groupings even if that meant blowing one game. I'd feel more confident at 15-1 heading into the postseason with at least an ounce of humility than being 16-0 feeling we're unstoppable. I wonder if Bill feels the same or wants to win every game even if that can actually hurt the mindset of the team.

Beyond the 18-0 Patriot collapse against the Giants, just look at other sports with juggernauts coming up an inch short in the postseason. For example, the Warriors were 73-9 and managed to lose in the championship to the Cavs in seven. Maybe there's something to the idea of having a little taste of defeat when it comes to winning championships.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that BB would rest anyone if we were 15-0. This would be an opportunity for a season to be perfect, and for a team to be considered the best ever should they continue and win the SB.

Do you think Bill might let a game slide -- even at home -- if we're sitting at 12-0 or 13-0 with a three game cushion for the #1 seed? The pursuit of perfection in 2007 became a distraction down the stretch, so I wonder if he would rest guys and get a look at different personnel groupings even if that meant blowing one game. I'd feel more confident at 15-1 heading into the postseason with at least an ounce of humility than being 16-0 feeling we're unstoppable. I wonder if Bill feels the same or wants to win every game even if that can actually hurt the mindset of the team.

Beyond the 18-0 Patriot collapse against the Giants, just look at other sports with juggernauts coming up an inch short in the postseason. For example, the Warriors were 73-9 and managed to lose in the championship to the Cavs in seven. Maybe there's something to the idea of having a little taste of defeat when it comes to winning championships.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

I agree

Your odds compute to 9%. However, I believe that you great overrate Cincy. I have that game at 99%, going me 10%.

So, You are saying that we have 1 chance in 11 of being undefeated in the regular season; I have it at 1 chance in 10; the most has it as one chance in 6.

These odds seem too generous for the Patriots. I like the 14-2 elo rating on 2019 NFL Predictions since we've still got some tough games ahead. Plus all teams lay the proverbial egg once or a few times a season. Unless the lone egg was the Buffalo game, then we've still got a game or two where we lose our focus and don't have things bounce right.

 

[mgteich]

???

You can do the arithmetic, but I believe that the stated odds favor losing 2 games, just as you suggest.

These odds seem too generous for the Patriots. I like the 14-2 elo rating on 2019 NFL Predictions since we've still got some tough games ahead. Plus all teams lay the proverbial egg once or a few times a season. Unless the lone egg was the Buffalo game, then we've still got a game or two where we lose our focus and don't have things bounce right.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

I don't think that BB would rest anyone if we were 15-0. This would be an opportunity for a season to be perfect, and for a team to be considered the best ever should they continue and win the SB.

Maybe he wouldn't. But going for an undefeated season is almost the definition of un-Belichick. He is about the whole season as a journey that places the team in a position to win in the postseason. Playing everyone at 14-0 or 15-0 when the #1 is sewn up would be tantamount to vanity for him. Sure, he is a historian and wants to leave the greatest legacy possible; however, pursuing perfection at the potential cost of another championship seems to be against his standard way of operating.

Case in point of going against the usual way of operating -- the 2007 season where we ran out of gas. We could have used a bit more rest heading into the postseason that year but instead chased perfection. At the time, perfection seemed more important than anything; however, at this point I suspect the glory of undefeated sounds less appealing than winning another championship.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

???

You can do the arithmetic, but I believe that the stated odds favor losing 2 games, just as you suggest.

I was replying, in general, to the idea of the Patriots being 15-1 or 16-0 from a statistical point. I didn't mean to single your post out - my bad.