Office pool picker

[mgcolby]

Mods if this needs to be moved I understand. I have a tool I use to help me with my "office pool" picks. Its based solely on numbers, it does not account for injuries, weather, suspensions etc... it is meant to be a tool in the arsenal not an end all be all. However, keeping track of how it does will be interesting. I have had it for several years but some weeks I get lazy about keeping up with it. Having a thread should motivate me to keep it updated throughout the season.

I figured if it could possibly help others out then why not post and if folks want to compete against it that might be fun as well. We can keep the thread running through the season. Unlike Alamo, I am far to lazy to keep track of everyone's picks. You will have to keep track of your own picks on the honor system.

Use at your own risk! If you lose your office pool don't blame me....

Because of the two teams that had bye's last week not all teams have four games, so it probably would have been best to wait until next week, but I got the itch to break it out last week and figured I will start posting it this week..

Columns:
Predicted score: What the numbers predict the two teams will do against each other.
Predicted spread: Difference between the scores. High minus low and low minus high.
Live Spread: Opening line listed on ESPN on Monday/Tuesday.
Spread Dif: Difference between live spread and predicted spread. I only list the predicted play.

 

[supafly]

Thanks for posting, much appreciated.

This actually helped me last week with the PIT/MIN game, as I incorrectly assumed that PIT would perform better with their backs against the wall vs a rather lousy QB. As we know the QB's changed at the end of the week, so that factor along with your predictor helped save me anywhere from 100-150 bucks

 

[mgcolby]

Thanks for posting, much appreciated.

This actually helped me last week with the PIT/MIN game, as I incorrectly assumed that PIT would perform better with their backs against the wall vs a rather lousy QB. As we know the QB's changed at the end of the week, so that factor along with your predictor helped save me anywhere from 100-150 bucks

Glad it was able to help. I've thought about posting it for a few years now, but I've tweeked it several times and feel its about as good as I can get it. it was 7-7-1 ATS spread last week. The interesting part for me is how close its predicted spread is to the actual spread later in the season when the teams are playing more consistant football.

 

[mgcolby]

Here are the results of week 5.

ATS - 7 - 7
SU - 9 - 5

Not great but not terrible.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6 calculations. First week where every team has played four games (formula is based on last four games played).

 

[jmt57]

Here are the results of week 5.

ATS - 7 - 7
SU - 9 - 5

Not great but not terrible.

Last week wasn't easy to predict.

- All the unbeaten teams were on the road
- Good teams were playing other good teams (Seattle-Indy; Pats-Bengals; Saints-Bears; Lions-Packers)
- Bad teams were playing other bad teams (Jaguars-Rams; Eagles-Giants)
- Most of the bad teams you would normally pick against were not playing (the teams with a bye had a combined 2-14 record)

 

[mgcolby]

All very good points that I did not consider. Thanks...I'm hoping it goes above 55% ATS for the season.

 

[mgcolby]

An damn good week by the calculator as it has its first winning week of the season going:

10-4-1 ATS
10-5 SU

Season record:

17-11-1 ATS
19-10 SU

 

[mgcolby]

And now week 7's predictions.

Some notes the Bears/Skins game is a pick em hence the zero.

Now for some feedback. I'm thinking about not counting the W's/L's for games where the differance between the spread is less than a point or half point? Just count them as a push to account for the game. What do you guys think?

 

[jmt57]

And now week 7's predictions.

Some notes the Bears/Skins game is a pick em hence the zero.

Now for some feedback. I'm thinking about not counting the W's/L's for games where the difference between the spread is less than a point or half point? Just count them as a push to account for the game. What do you guys think?

Great point; all upsets are not equal.

In my mind I would go further than that. Consider this: is a 2½ or 3-point underdog winning really worthy of being called an 'upset'?

I guess it all depends on how far you wish to go with it; two tiers? Three? For example:

½ - 2½ points - No designation
3 to 6½ points - Mild Upset
7 to 9½ points - Upset
10 or more points - Major Upset

You could move those 'lines in the sand' as you wish, or have fewer tiers as you see fit. Regardless, a single-point point favorite losing is not the same as a double-digit underdog getting a victory.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 7 results and like any good "office pool" picker the calculator was bitten by some unlucky breaks. KC failing to score on the goal line at the end of the game, and then choosing not to score by taking a knee after a fumble recovery on the goal line. Cleveland scoring to get within 11 only to give up a quick TD in return to GB and then Weeden throwing a bad ball to Greg Little on 4th and Goal that would have put them back within 11.

So those two games made what would have been another great week into an OK week.

Anyway thems the breaks as they say.

In Week 7 the calculator went:
8-7 ATS
8-7 SU

On the season it is now:
25-18-1 ATS
27-17 SU

Here are the results

 

[mgcolby]

For those of you that are following this thread, sorry for getting this up so late. Was out of town the last two days.

Here are Week 8's predictions.

 

[jmt57]

Week 7 results and like any good "office pool" picker the calculator was bitten by some unlucky breaks. KC failing to score on the goal line at the end of the game, and then choosing not to score by taking a knee after a fumble recovery on the goal line. Cleveland scoring to get within 11 only to give up a quick TD in return to GB and then Weeden throwing a bad ball to Greg Little on 4th and Goal that would have put them back within 11.

So those two games made what would have been another great week into an OK week.

Anyway thems the breaks as they say.

In Week 7 the calculator went:
8-7 ATS
8-7 SU

On the season it is now:
25-18-1 ATS
27-17 SU

Here are the results

Yeah, I went from having a very good week to having a barely plus week thanks to that Chiefs game. Between the way the Chiefs defense had been playing, the game being in Arrowhead, the KC defense able to force turnovers while Houston's offense was giving it away, and the Texans starting their third string QB, I thought that the line (5½ when I got in, later went up to around 8 if I recall correctly) was very much in KC's favor.

I'm sitting there hoping for a pick six or strip sack with Houston in desperation mode, and it happens ... and the defender lands about a foot short of the goal line. Uggh. Andy Reid did the right thing by taking a knee rather than punching it in though, because a TD and 2-point conversion could have forced OT; that can't happen if they run the clock out.


Another last second game was Chicago at Washington. The last minute score by Helu changed the winner on the books as well as on the scoreboard. Same deal with the Steelers-Ravens, with Pittsburgh winning on both the scoreboard as well as covering with a FG as time expired.


The one game that really surprised me was Dallas-Philadelphia. Both teams had good offenses and bad defenses; I figured that one would go over and instead there was over a dozen punts and almost as many three and outs, with only 20 total points scored.


Thanks much for posting these each week.

 

[mgcolby]

For those of you that are following this thread, sorry for getting this up so late. Was out of town the last two days.

Here are Week 8's predictions.

Saved the file incorrectly. Here is the real week 8 predictions.

 

[jmt57]

Saved the file incorrectly. Here is the real week 8 predictions.

A couple of those that stand out, as being a bit (or a lot) of a surprise to me:

Saints -4.58 vs Bills. I would have expected that to be closer to the actual line of Saints -13.

Jets -0.35 at Bengals. Jets favored on the road at Cincy? I can see it being less than the actual line of 7, but that just seems off.

Broncos -4.25 vs Redskins. Looking at Washington's I would have expected this to be much more. Again, can understand it being less than the posted line of 14, but this seems to be too close.

Seahawks -1.14 at Rams. St. Louis hasn't looked very good on defense, doesn't have much of a running game, and now they lost their starting QB. Same idea here, I can see it not being as much as Seattle -12, but not this low.


I'll be curious to see how the actual results on these four games pan out in comparison to the nine other games. The Thursday night contest certainly leaned in the correct direction.

 

[mgcolby]

It produces some head scratchers some times. And as you would expect the results vary. Remember it only uses the last four games played. And where the Broncos have given up a lot of points and the Skins coming off a 45 point outing probably skewed it a bit.

Don't have a good explanation for it, its how the numbers crunch out. I like this calculator because I get close to the same emotional investment in the games without the financial risk, by rooting for it to be right.

 

[supafly]

I'm sitting there hoping for a pick six or strip sack with Houston in desperation mode, and it happens ... and the defender lands about a foot short of the goal line. Uggh. Andy Reid did the right thing by taking a knee rather than punching it in though, because a TD and 2-point conversion could have forced OT; that can't happen if they run the clock out.

How many times have we all dealt with that, jmt? LOL

So many times....

The only thing that makes up for that is the old "backdoor cover" at the last possible minute when things look to be at their bleakest. Of course that would be the opposite end of the emotional spectrum.

 

[mgcolby]

How many times have we all dealt with that, jmt? LOL

So many times....

The only thing that makes up for that is the old "backdoor cover" at the last possible minute when things look to be at their bleakest. Of course that would be the opposite end of the emotional spectrum.

That seems to happen far less than a garbage time TD costing me the game. I would almost say at a 4-1 rate, personally.

 

[mgcolby]

Well the calculator played much like the R-Words did. Started off great and then the wheels fell off. It went big with bold predictions and it went home this week. Had its first losing week!

This week:
6-7 ATS
8-5 SU

For the season:
31-25-1 ATS
35-22

 

[mgcolby]

And now for week 9's predictions on time this week.