Office pool picker

[jmt57]

It produces some head scratchers some times. And as you would expect the results vary. Remember it only uses the last four games played. And where the Broncos have given up a lot of points and the Skins coming off a 45 point outing probably skewed it a bit.

Don't have a good explanation for it, its how the numbers crunch out. I like this calculator because I get close to the same emotional investment in the games without the financial risk, by rooting for it to be right.

Oh ye (me) of little faith, let me eat some crow for doubting that Seattle prediction.
:fish:


Denver-Washington started out making the Picker look like a genius, but Team Snyder imploded in the second half.

KC did me in once again this week, failing to cover at home in what I thought would be an easy victory vs a QB that hadn't won since 2008. :scream:

 

[mgcolby]

Oh ye (me) of little faith, let me eat some crow for doubting that Seattle prediction.
:fish:


Denver-Washington started out making the Picker look like a genius, but Team Snyder imploded in the second half.

KC did me in once again this week, failing to cover at home in what I thought would be an easy victory vs a QB that hadn't won since 2008. :scream:

Yeah, the Picker was kicking ass after the 1pm games and through the 1st half of the 4pm games and then the wheels fell off. Just like Kyle and his play calling. Kyle should have a note to self if running the ball works in the 1st half keep doing it in the 2nd half.

Hopefully it doesn't have to many more losing weeks.

 

[mgcolby]

Not a bad week for the picker it went 8-5, was a beneficiary of the Rodgers injury but it will take it feeling no guilt.

An admin note: I had incorrectly posted the picks with the Rams giving up 3 points as a 0.6 point favorite. The correct play on that was the Titans getting 3 points. Sorry for the error.

Season Records:

39-30-1 ATS
42-28 SU

 

[mgcolby]

And here are week 10's picks. I double checked them for accuracy, but if you see a mistake please point it out.

 

[jmt57]

39-30-1 against the spread is very good.


On a side note, I noticed that with the news that Aaron Rodgers is out for a few games, Vegas has adjusted the Packers game - Green Bay plummeted from being a 10-point favorite over Philadelphia at Lambeau next week, to just a 2-point favorite. Not much faith at all in Seneca Wallace after last night's performance.

 

[mgcolby]

39-30-1 against the spread is very good.


On a side note, I noticed that with the news that Aaron Rodgers is out for a few games, Vegas has adjusted the Packers game - Green Bay plummeted from being a 10-point favorite over Philadelphia at Lambeau next week, to just a 2-point favorite. Not much faith at all in Seneca Wallace after last night's performance.

Yeah, my goal is to be over 55% from week 5 on would love closer to 60% but that is probably a pipe dream. I'm thinking about possibly making it an app 0.99 a year and see if it sells, starting next season. But it has to prove itself first.

 

[mgcolby]

A really solid week for the picker ATS going 9-5. An abysmal week picking SU a lousy 6-8.

For the year:

ATS 48-35-1
SU 48-36

 

[mgcolby]

And week 11 picks.

 

[jmt57]

A really solid week for the picker ATS going 9-5. An abysmal week picking SU a lousy 6-8.

For the year:

ATS 48-35-1
SU 48-36

6-8 straight up in week 10 is totally understandable.

• - The two safest bets, home teams as double-digit favorites, both lost straight up.
  
• - Two 0-8 teams won straight up.
  
• - The mid-game curve ball thrown at us with Green Bay having to rely on a practice squad player to quarterback the team.
  
• - Underdogs won six games straight up (seven if you count the Bucs, who started the week as a 3-point dog but ended as a 1-point favorite at kickoff).

That was a tough week to prognosticate; I was about the same as you: 8-6 ATS and 7-7 SU.

 

[supafly]

Yeah, my goal is to be over 55% from week 5 on would love closer to 60% but that is probably a pipe dream. I'm thinking about possibly making it an app 0.99 a year and see if it sells, starting next season. But it has to prove itself first.

I've never used an app for this before, mgcolby. I'm assuming just like many of the services out there, that there are plethoras of apps available? Or would I be incorrect in that assumption?

I think many would be interested in purchasing an app for sure, but that's just my guess.

 

[mgcolby]

Another winning week from the picker. 3 pushes this week but overall 7-5-3 is nothing to sneeze at. It is a solid +11 units this year (juice subtracted).

Week Results:
ATS: 7-5-3
SU: 10-5

Season:
ATS: 55-40-4
SU: 58-41

 

[mgcolby]

And week 12's plays.

 

[mgcolby]

I've never used an app for this before, mgcolby. I'm assuming just like many of the services out there, that there are plethoras of apps available? Or would I be incorrect in that assumption?

I think many would be interested in purchasing an app for sure, but that's just my guess.

Honestly I have not used an app for this before either. But I have been using this calculator off and on for a few years. But clearly I should have paid more attention to it.

I honestly don't know how many apps are out there, will have to research it soon. First wanted to see how it did.

Have you been using it as a tool this season, if so has it helped you other than the first week I posted it? I really would like feedback from as many people as possible their experience with it and how they have used it.

 

[jmt57]

Honestly I have not used an app for this before either. But I have been using this calculator off and on for a few years. But clearly I should have paid more attention to it.

I honestly don't know how many apps are out there, will have to research it soon. First wanted to see how it did.

Have you been using it as a tool this season, if so has it helped you other than the first week I posted it? I really would like feedback from as many people as possible their experience with it and how they have used it.

I've been using you picks as one part of what I look at, and it helps. Sometimes I will start with your numbers and then adjust from there (for example, due to injuries, if team is coming off a big emotional game, long travel, etc.) It seems to do pretty well I would say.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 results were excellent going 10-3-1 and one of the losses I am hesitant to count as it basically called for a tie and the line was a pick. The picker had the Bears winning by 0.12 of a point. But for consistency purposes I will count it.

The picker is now nearly +18 units ($110 to win $100) on the season with the subtracted juice ($6500 winnings minus $4730 in losses +1770) that is 60% ATS spread. If you can't tell I'm a bit excited by this. Again thanks for the feedback.

One abnormality that I just noticed last night and I'm not sure how I didn't notice it sooner is that the lines at ESPN never have a hook, they are always whole numbers. Not sure if that would have made a drastic difference one way or the other. My feeling after glancing over the scores is that it wouldn't have made but for a one to two game difference in the win/loss column.

For the Week:

ATS: 10-3-1
SU: 8-7

For the season:

ATS: 65-43-5
SU: 66-48

 

[mgcolby]

A quick note/observation the picker is 3-4-1 ATS on Thursday nights. I wonder if the losing record will continue this Thursday with three games. I think the short week makes the Thursday games a crap shoot never knowing how the it will affect the two teams.

And Week 13 plays:

 

[jmt57]

A quick note/observation the picker is 3-4-1 ATS on Thursday nights. I wonder if the losing record will continue this Thursday with three games. I think the short week makes the Thursday games a crap shoot never knowing how the it will affect the two teams.

And Week 13 plays:

Thursday worked out pretty well. I'll be interested to see how the Titans-Colts, Bengals-Chargers, Bucs-Panthers and Dolphins-Jets do, as those are the ones that seem to jump out a bit in comparison to so-called conventional wisdom. Glad to see it's working so well for you this season.

 

[mgcolby]

Thursday worked out pretty well. I'll be interested to see how the Titans-Colts, Bengals-Chargers, Bucs-Panthers and Dolphins-Jets do, as those are the ones that seem to jump out a bit in comparison to so-called conventional wisdom. Glad to see it's working so well for you this season.

I don't think it could have done much better yesterday. Going 3-0 is a good start to the week and since last Thursday it is now 13-3-1 ATS spread that is a good week.

Thanks for the kind words. I hope this has helped you win a game or two this season.

The Titans are playing pretty good ball and the Colts are struggling mightily, those two blowouts in two of the past three weeks are what is affecting it. Obviously the middle game of the three was between the two teams and the Colts pulled it out with a 30-27 win.

The Bengals are helped a lot by the win over Cleveland and the small yardage that produced 41 points and the Chargers are using a lot of yards to score their 25PPG over the last four games.

The Jets offensive has been horrendous over the past four games scoring an average of 13PPG over that span. And the defense has not been much better giving up 31.2 PPG over that same span. The Dolphins are scoring 19.2 PPG and allowing 19.5 in their past four. Obviously the Jets beat NO's at home which is their only win in the past four games and Miami beat Cincy and SD. I think Miami wins but I'm not sure it will be by 8.

Again thanks for the feedback. I wish more would contribute. I see the views go up each week especially on game days. But it is what it is.

 

[jmt57]

Three out of four for the ones I pointed out that may potentially be off; that's very good.


Plus +470 (6-3) for the week in NFL games for me this week. For all games (including ones I didn't want to touch) I was 10-5 ATS which is very good, but still you are far outperforming me.

I got the Jaguars, Dolphins, Cardinals and Giants right, plus 2x on the Broncos; also had the Broncos-Chiefs right on the over.

Was on the wrong side for the Bears, Falcons-Bills under and 49ers-Rams over. Maybe I should just stay away from the point totals... :confused2:

 

[mgcolby]

Another winning week, not nearly the same as last week but 9-6-1 ATS is nothing to sneeze at.

So with that here are the updated season records:

74-49-6 ATS
77-53 SU

Week:
9-6-1 ATS
11-5 SU