mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2024

[mgcolby]

I put this together recently and wanted to share it just for the hell of it.

Now two things:
1. This is a brand new model without any real testing.
2. This is based on the last four weeks, same as my predictions.
3. I tried several different formulas but none of them moved the needle in terms of overall rankings. I did come up with one formula that had two teams swap positions with each other, I think one went from 8th to 9th and vice versa.
4. I'm not sure it's ready for prime time but oh well.
5. It is a tool! Use it as such! It could turn out awful, but...it's still better than your beer gut feelings and gives you real tangibles to help you evaluate your bets.
6. Did I mention its free? (thanks for not *****ing about how bad my crystal ball was the first three weeks, I do really appreciate it)!
7. I would truly like honest constructive feedback and/or ideas on how to make this better based on you're own personal use.
8. Last week the higher ranking teams won 11 out of 15 games against lower ranking teams. I would like to note that one of the four losses was Indianapolis to Minnessota where both teams were seperated by one tenth of a point in their ER.


Here is Week 10's (second week's) version of the ER Rankings:

 

[mgcolby]

Week 10 Results

Overall, not a bad week. The original pushing to make a comeback while all three came into the homestretch on Sunday night looking good only to have Detroit and Los Angeles screw it up. The new Models pushed at 7-7 while the Original went 9-5. That is only the second winning week of the season while the new models three-week winning streak came to end, it did so with a 500 weekend. Both Models are still above 50%. While all three models struggled with the Over-Under, the new models remain at or above 50% while the original dipped to 48%.



Original



Model 1



Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

Week 11 Predictions

TNF
WAS/PHI: Another great matchup on Thursday night. Number one this week in the ER Rankings hosts number five, but more importantly first place in the NFC East is on the line while both teams try to keep pace with Detroit for the first seed overall in the NFC. A lot of pre-Thanksgiving jockeying (....turkying??) involved in this one.

The Commanders head into Washington scoring the 3rd most points in the league per game. While the Eagles defense respectively holds its opponents to 17.9 ppg good enough for 6th in the NFL. Meanwhile Washington bolsters the 12th best defense in the league allowing 21.7 ppg. However, that narrative changes quite significantly over the past four games. Washington's offense is scoring right around their season average (29 ppg) at 28 ppg and the defense has been outperforming their season average of 21.7 ppg only allowing 18 ppg over their last four.

So why the significant win prediction you ask?

Simple Philadelphia has been nothing short of superb over its last four games since getting the band back together. Scoring at a clip of 31.8 ppg and allowing just 12.3 ppg on defense. But hey they were beating up the sisters of the poor you say...well two things, first they can only play who's put in front of them and two Washington hasn't exactly been playing murderer's row. Both teams have faced mostly sub-par talent in their last four games both with one game against a playoff caliber team Washington has Pittsburgh and Philly has Cincy.

Philly is a team that fought through a stretch of games with significant injuries to key guys and has gotten healthy, but more importantly appear to have had a few sessions with a shrink and managed to get themselves mentally right. The picker has Philly pulling off a big win here and I can't really disagree with this. I'm breaking out the chalk for this one.

Head Scratchers: ?

PIT/BAL: Pittsburgh a TD plus better than Baltimore?
Lets dive into why. While the Ravens offense has been a scoring machine, best in the league actually, the defense has left a lot to be desired. Like 25th in the league a lot. The passing defense is downright indefensible, literally last in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 294.9, nearly 300 yards passing allowed, per game! There are five defenses in the league that don't allow 300 yards total per game. Yeah, but they lead a lot, and teams have to throw on them to try and stay in the game etc...yeah, there is some truth to that.

Teams do throw on them at a high rate, actually more than any other team in the league at a 66.5% clip. But sorry folks, its not to keep up, its cause they just downright suck at pass defense. Nearly at the bottom of all passing categories in the league 6.9 Yard Per Pass (28th) and 22 TD's (32). The only defensive passing stat they come close to hitting the top half of the league in is completion percentage at 17th with a rate of 65.6%. To be fair, they do have the best run defense in the league allowing 3.4 ypc and just 73 yards per game. Not so surprising they also get run on the least.

The Ravens offense on the other hand, as I'm sure everyone is aware, is off the charts across the board. YPG, PPG, number three passing offense, number one rushing offense. They score! The Ravens are by far the most lopsided team in the NFL.

Pittsburgh on the other hand is a middling offense that can put up enough points each week to stay in the game. Their defense is solid, but maybe not as good as they appear at first glance. They are 4th in run defense, but a subpar 19th in passing defense. They don't seem to excel at anything numbers wise on either side of the ball, but they win. I'd be remised not to mention the Steelers special teams here.

So why the 7-point prediction for Pittsburgh? Well over the past four games Pittsburgh has averaged 30.8 ppg on offense and allowed just 18.3 ppg on defense. In that same span, Baltimore has scored an average of 35.3 ppg and allowed 26. They also allowed an average of 417.8 yards of offense to their opponents during this time. The defense has been well below its season average for the Ravens, while the Steelers offense has been well above its season average, with Pittsburgh's defense shooting par. I would lay off this game, but tough to lay off Pittsburgh getting points at home in an NFC North battle.

LAR/NE: Normally I leave this as its own category, however I was a bit shocked at this prediction. But then again I looked at the numbers. Even with their guys back the Rams are only averaging 22.8 ppg on offense and just a shy under 20 points per game with 19.5. While NE is both scoring and allowing 19.3 ppg. I could continue on through the numbers, but they are nearly identical across the board over the last four games. The difference here is New England at home. Otherwise, the final score is slightly opposite. But it does not change the pick of the NE plus 5.5. I'm gonna drink the kool-aid here and think NE can keep it close and roll with the points. Also mark me down as a fan of the under as well.

ATL/DEN: This one simply comes down to how each team has played over the last four weeks. Atlanta has struggled a bit, two wins sandwiched in between, in my opinion, two bad losses. A blowout loss to Seattle at home then two wins against a depleted Tampa team and well...the Cowboys, closed out by a loss to the Saints. The offense is slugging along scoring just 22. 3ppg while giving up 25.3 ppg. Facing a Denver team on the road, with a slight chance for precipitation (long term forecast) doesn't seem congruent to an increase in offensive production.

Now Denver's defense is good, we are aware. But again, much like the Steelers that defense has had the benefit of playing some poor offenses. I think that has aided them in many ways and obviously holding down the Chiefs this past Sunday is a feather in their cap. It has also made some folks possibly over value the Broncos defense a bit. Good offenses can put up points on them. The Ravens just dropped 41, however they are hindered by a bottom ten offense. But that bottom ten offense has kept pace with Atlanta's over the four-game snapshot averaging 21.3 ppg to Atlanta's 25.3 ppg.

Once you really get into the meat of how both teams have been playing over the course of this past month, you can see how the crystal ball came up with this one.

Game of the Week:
KC/BUF: Number 1 seed decided on Sunday? It could definitely have a say. Buffalo is a well-balanced team, number two in this week's ER Power Rankings. Humming on offense to a tune of 31.3 ppg on offense while holding opponents to 16.8 ppg which is good enough for 4th over the past four weeks.

KC has been almost equally as impressive on the defensive side of the ball allowing 19 ppg and scoring a respectable 25.5 ppg but still a full TD less than Buffalo over the same span.

Both teams are playing outstanding coming into this game, Buffalo winners of their last five as well as undefeated at home, with KC coming into Buffalo undefeated. Can Buffalo find a way to somehow manage to have one more point than KC does when the clock ticks zero? Something has got to give. Sounds like rain in the forecast in Buffalo on Sunday. I'll take the rain on KC's parade and Buffalo here on the Money line.

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the WEEK!
Record: 1-1




Alright, ya feckin’ eejits, no point in dressin’ this one up with flowers. I’ll start off with a big ol’ feck you - I didn’t hear a peep from ye bastards last week when you were all smug at the end of the rainbow, collectin’ your winnings, were ya?

And a particularly special feck you goes out to Yoo - ya stiff-necked gobshite! One job, Yoo, just one bleedin’ job!

Now, I know I let ye down. Beneath this rugged, devilishly handsome exterior lies a bit of a heart, believe it or not. So, I’ll dig down deep into me ancient scrolls of NFL wisdom and see if I can pull a unicorn outta me arse for ye this week.

Lay the chalk here lads, seems like it’s been chalk after chalk round these parts, but that’s just the way it’s been, ain’t it?

Houston -7.5

And "D'em" Girls? Absolutely brutal.

Ah, but because I’m feelin’ a touch generous, here’s another one for ya. Now, don’t call this official....just think of it as a wee olive branch.

CLE-NO Under 44.5

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​

 

[mgcolby]

Week 11 Efficiency Rankings

Alright, so far so good two weeks into this whole power ranking venture. The higher ranking teams finished 10-4 this week. Following up on an 11-4 the week before. How's that for efficient?

​

 

[mgcolby]

Week 11 Results

Another mixed week. The orginal pulling itself up by the bootstraps and scraping out a winning week, its first back to back winning weeks on the season and its third overall.

The new models struggled a bit this week having their first losing week ATS in five weeks. Although Model 2 did eek out a winning week on the Over Under.

Some notes the original is slowly climbing its way up towards 50% ATS and is ever so slightly below 50% on the over unders. It has three winning weeks ATS and four losing weeks.

The new Models are both hovering around 50% with model 2 one game better and sitting at 51% ATS. The new Models both have three winning weeks, three losing weeks and one push week.

Looking at this week there are only three games the models disagree on and for just the second time this season Model 1 and Model 2 are on opposite sides of a game.



Original

Model 1

Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Predications

TNF: Thursday night's AFC North showdown (maybe ****down is more like it) the Steelers head into Cleveland. Pittsburgh, riding a five-game winning streak, is favored by 4.5 points, with an over/under set at 35.5. The Steelers' offense has been efficient, averaging 27.25 points per game (ppg) and 362.5 yards per game (ypg), ranking 8th in points per game. Their defense has been stout, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 322 ypg, placing them 7th in points allowed. Notably, Pittsburgh's defense excels in the red zone, permitting touchdowns on only 48.3% of opponents' trips.

In contrast, the Browns have struggled, losing seven of their last eight games. Their offense averages 16.75 ppg and 368 ypg, ranking 26th in points per game. Defensively, Cleveland allows 25.9 ppg and 356.25 ypg, ranking 25th in points allowed. For a defense that is considered "Good" by many pundits they're terrible in the red zone, allowing touchdowns 63.3% of the time, not good.

A 45% chance of rain and temperatures around 45°F are in the forecast at kickoff. Given Pittsburgh's balanced attack and Cleveland's defensive and offenseive woes, the Steelers area solid play here. Give me Pittsburgh covering the spread. The over/under of 35.5 suggests a low-scoring affair, but considering both teams' recent performances, I'd give the over a ponder.


New England: The Patriots head down to sunny Miami, where the Dolphins are laying 7.5 points with a total set at 46. On paper, New England’s defense deserves a little respect, allowing just 18.3 ppg while keeping things tight in the red zone (57.9% opponent success rate). The offense? Well, not so much. At 21.3 ppg, they’re consistent but far from explosive. If this team could find the end zone in the red zone (46.9% success), we might be talking about them more as a spoiler and less as a speed bump.

Miami comes in looking flashier, averaging 25.7 ppg with a solid offensive red zone rate of 55.2%. But their defense has been a bit of a liability, giving up 23 ppg and showing cracks against more disciplined offenses. Hard Rock Stadium hasn’t been the fortress they’d hoped for, with a 2-3 record at home. Still, with the weather hovering around a balmy 79°F, conditions are prime for Tua and Tyreek to make plays. Can the Dolphins finally put it all together in a game they should control?

If you’re feeling bold, sprinkle on the under - it’s tight, but the Pats’ red zone woes and Miami’s inconsistencies could keep this lower scoring than expected.

Head Scratchers:
Dallas, well we all know the answer to this one. This might be the last week they look competitive on paper. We'll see, I haven't looked ahead at their schedule. Maybe when they play the Gints.

KC/Car: Take Carolina and the points? Ah, can't get down with the picker on this one. The Chiefs roll into Charlotte as 11-point favorites over the struggling Panthers. Kansas City has been steady over the past month, allowing just 284.5 yards per game (ypg) while averaging 319.25 ypg on offense. Their defense has been particularly effective against the run, holding opponents to just 88 rushing yards per game, good for a top-10 ranking. On the offensive side, the Chiefs' ability to stretch the field has kept them competitive, averaging 5.2 yards per play (YPP).

Carolina, meanwhile, is terrible, in other news the sky is blue. Over the last month, the Panthers' offense has been anemic, producing just 254 ypg, the worst in the league during this span. Their defense has been equally ineffective, surrendering 397.5 ypg. To make matters worse, Carolina’s turnover differential is among the league’s worst, often putting their already shaky defense in bad spots.

It’s hard to see the Chiefs failing to cover the spread here.

Game of the Week: The Harbaugh Bowl: Baltimore visiting LA, with Baltimore favored by 3.5 points and an over/under set at 50.5. Over the past month, the Ravens have been firing offensively, averaging 29 points per game (ppg) while racking up 375.25 yards per game (ypg). However, their porous defense keeps leaking, surrendering 22.75 ppg and 373.25 ypg, leaving them vulnerable against high-powered (um) offenses.

The Chargers have been just as potent offensively, putting up 28.5 ppg on 366 ypg. Where they’ve truly shined is on defense, allowing only 15.5 ppg over the last four games. This defensive resurgence, paired with explosive offensive production especially led by my man Herbert, makes the Chargers a dangerous dog, especially at home.

Baltimore’s defensive woes versus the Chargers’ balanced attack should tilt this game in favor of the home team. Keep an eye on the over - it’s a high number, but both offenses are more than capable of clearing it. Rolling with the dog and may consider the over on this one. I wouldn't be afraid to take the moneyline on this one as well. I do have to note this is only the second time this season the new models disagreed on a game. Model 1 has the Ravens covering by a about a point. They both have Baltimore winning. But I have to say I'm with the OG on this one, I like the Chargers outright.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings



What a feckin’ week, lads. I mean, me emotions have been all over the place cheerin’ on me boys. First off, I’m delighted that this sheisty eejit MGCOLBY finally decided to give me some credit for me efficiency rankings. ‘Bout time, too. I mean, his original prediction model’s been about as accurate as Helen Keller judgin’ a longest shlong contest.

But I digress. 12-2 this week, 33-10 overall. Not too shabby, eh? I might just be onto somethin’ here. Not bad for a ****-kickin’ leprechaun from across the pond meddlin’ in your sport. Sláinte!

​

Ah, this week’s biggest Ladder Langer? That’d be the Texans. Fair play to them for beatin’ up on poor ol’ Jerrah’s sorry lot—quite the boost there. New Orleans takes the second spot, though I’ve a bone to pick with them, but I’ll save that rant for later. Sure, it always pays to hammer the downtrodden. And roundin’ out the top three are the Dolphins, flyin’ high like the cheeky feckers they are.

Now for the Plungers—no one made a louder splash hittin’ the pool than Jacksonville. Sure, some of it’s down to playin’ the best team in the NFL, but let’s be honest, most of it’s because they’ve Mac Jones at QB. The man’s a bettor’s pot of gold—pure joy to bet against. Sadly, it sounds like Lawrence’ll be back after their bye. Ah, it was good while it lasted.

Washington made a sizable splash too, didn’t they? The young lads there learned the hard way that bein’ competitive for three quarters doesn’t mean a damn thing. And the Packers? Jaysus, they nearly packed it in down in Chicago. Lucky for them, they managed to pull the tip out just in time. Feckin’ close one, that!

​

How about them Lions, eh? An ER ranking of 3.5 - by far the best we’ve seen since the whole thing kicked off. Not too shabby at all. Enjoy it, lads!

​

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 2-1​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Olive Branches: 0-1 ****stains



Ah, before I start crowin’ about the brilliance of me Shamlock of the Week, I’ve got to vent about that feckin’ disaster of a bad beat down in New Orleans. Jaysus, lads, I’ve taken some rough ones in me day - bad beats, I mean, not the other sort (though I did visit New Orleans once, but that’s a story for another time).

Anyway, bein’ down by double digits and scorin’ a garbage-time touchdown for a backdoor cover—that’s ****ty enough when you’re on the wrong side, but at least it’s understandable. But feck me sideways—having the under and seein’ the team with the lead run an end-around for 75 feckin’ yards, with Taysom bleedin’ Hill, just tryin’ to run out the clock, only to score? That’s pure torture. Lads, we didn’t just lose that bet—we got a John Holmes-level screwin’, without so much as a drop of lube.

Right, off me soapbox! How ’bout them Cowgirls, eh? Woohoo—or is it Yeehaw? Feck, I don’t need to know what your wives sound like, lads. Keep that noise in the bedroom, ya perverted bastards.

I told ya Jerrah’s boys were gonna get ploughed, didn’t I? Hope you’re enjoyin’ the winnings - don’t blow it all in one spot, mind. Then again, who am I kiddin’? You lot probably threw it all on last night’s Central Michigan vs Western Michigan game and took the over 54.5, didn’t ya? Ah well, keep chancin’ your arm, boys. Sláinte!

Right, lads, let’s get on with it then. This week’s Shamlock pick is Arizona +1. Or if ye fancy, take the moneyline.

Either way, the Cardinals’ll be enjoyin’ their trip to that dreary hole called Seattle. Jaysus, with weather like that, they may as well head to feckin’ England’!

Let’s see if the luck holds, eh? Sláinte!

Arizona +1

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Results

Another bad week for the picker. Across the models. It did have a couple nice calls, Carolina and Dallas. But that was about it. Model 1 did tie model two now. But all three pickers are now under 50%. Lots of Red on the board this week. Peaking ahead to next week, I agree with about 8 of its picks. So we'll see.

On to week 13....




Original


Model 1


Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

Week 12 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings

​

Ah, lads, what a ****e week that was all around. The power rankings had their worst showin’ yet, goin’ 7-6. Still a winner pickin’ games straight up, mind ya, but Jaysus, that was a struggle. A couple o’ games don’t go its way, and suddenly it’s straight to feckin’ Loserville.
The Chiefs? Queefin’ all over themselves down in Cackalacky. And those damn Nordics? Feckin’ around with the Cubs! Sure, those little bastards can get feisty if you don’t let ‘em know who’s in charge right away. That one was closer than it should’ve been.

And how ‘bout them Big Cats from Detroit? The efficiency just keeps improvin’ every bleedin’ week. Then there’s the Birds in Philly, runnin’ amok all over the field—who even needs to fly? Meanwhile, up in Buffalo, the Bison are just starin’ down the snow, darin’ lads to step foot on their turf.

And then... then ya’ve got the Cowgirls out searchin’ for their Cowboys, while the midgets are huntin’ for their lost Giants, who—by the way—ran into some Cubs out lookin’ for their Mama Bears. Pathetic, the lot of them. Feckin’ hopeless!

​

Biggest Ladder Langers for Week 13
Ah, top o’ the Ladder Langers this week are the Packers, jumpin’ 12 spots! Biggest langers of the week, no doubt. Sure, playin’ a 49ers team low-crawlin’ out of the infirmary’ll do that for ya. But they’ve a big one this day of thanks and givin’ in frigid Lambeau—will the Tuna freeze up?

Next, the Panthers of Carolina leap 11 spots to number 20. That Bryce Young, he’s finally playin’ like he’s got a career to save. Over the last four weeks, he’s throwin’ 61.6%, 5 TDs to 3 INTs. Not bad for the lad, but let’s be honest, their ladder’s still a long one—and that’s not exactly a compliment.

And then we’ve the salty Pirates of Tampa’s Bay, climbin’ 10 spots. Mikey’s back, just in the nick of time, and it shows. Sure, everyone loves a good cutlet, don’t they?

Now for the Plungers:
The Sheep of LA—feck me, lads, that was a proper shearin’. I reckon Mr. Barkley’s still chasin’ them around with the clippers. It was a massacre in the City of Angels. Bad day to be a Lamb, indeed.

Next, the Steelers, droppin’ 9 spots this week. Talk about a mistake on the lake! Those lads dropped their pants while the Dawgs savored a Winston. Embarrassin’, it was.

And finally, the Patsies are back, lads. Sure, they’d been away for a while, but now? They’re nothin’ more than a big ol’ ****e sandwich—overloaded with Mayo, no less. Jaysus, it’s grim for them. Maye Day…Maye Day!

Sláinte, and here’s to Week 13 bringin’ more madness!

​

 

[mgcolby]

Week 13 Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving Everybody. Hope your Day is filled with Joy with your Family enjoying Food, Football and Beer (Spirits or your choice of beverages)!

Best day of the year!

Turkey Day Football:

Chi/Det: The Detroit Lions, riding a nine-game winning streak and boasting a 10-1 record, host the struggling Chicago Bears (4-7) this Sunday. Detroit's offense has been explosive, averaging 31.5 points per game (ppg) and 410.25 yards per game (ypg) over the past month. Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing just 12.25 ppg and 274.25 ypg in the same span. In contrast, Chicago's offense has faltered, managing only 14.5 ppg and 293 ypg, while their defense has surrendered 24.5 ppg and 374 ypg.

A key factor in this matchup is Detroit's efficiency on third downs, converting 48% of their attempts, compared to Chicago's 35%. Additionally, the Lions have a turnover differential of +8, highlighting their ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes, whereas the Bears sit at -5.

Given these disparities, Detroit is well-positioned to cover the 10.5-point spread. The over/under of 48.5 points seems attainable, considering the Lions' scoring prowess. Shamlock's Efficiency Ratings have Detroit at 1st and Chicago at 30th. Even the leprechaun would agree this matchup heavily favors the home team.

NY/Dal: The New York Giants (2-9) are set to face the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) on Thanksgiving Day, with Dallas favored by 2.5 points and an over/under of 39. Over the past month, the Giants have struggled offensively, averaging just 16 points per game (ppg) and 326.75 yards per game (ypg). Their defense hasn't fared much better, allowing 25.75 ppg and 385 ypg. The Cowboys, while slightly better on offense with 17.75 ppg and 311 ypg, have been porous defensively, surrendering 30.25 ppg and 365.25 ypg.

A significant factor in this matchup is the uncertainty surrounding Giants' quarterback Tommy DeVito, who is dealing with forearm soreness and is not "100 percent" to play.

This could further hamper an already struggling offense. On the other side, the Cowboys are obviously without Dak, leaving Cooper Rush to lead the offense.

Given the offensive struggles and key injuries on both sides, this game could be a low-scoring affair. The over/under of 39 points seems optimistic, and taking the under might be the prudent play here. A terrible matchup between two awful teams that might turn out to be competitive due to sheer ineptness. Got to roll with the Boys here and would lean under.

Mia/GB: The Miami Dolphins, riding a three-game winning streak, are set to face the Green Bay Packers as the premier game on Turkey Day. With the Dolphins' recent success, they are 5-6 on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in. The Packers, standing at 8-3 and third in the NFC North, hold the second wild card spot in the NFC.

In terms of team performance, the Dolphins have averaged 334.25 yards and 29.5 points per game over the past month, while allowing 312.25 yards and 19.75 points per game. The Packers have averaged 381 yards and 25.5 points per game, allowing 320.75 yards and 20 points per game in the same period. Notably, the Packers' defense has been effective, ranking 13th in yards per play allowed (5.3), which could challenge the Dolphins' offense.

Weather conditions at Lambeau Field on game day are expected to be brisk and chilly with considerable cloudiness, a high of 31 and a low of 18. This makes me question the Dolphins ability to be competitive. Its not quite KC last January but its not South Beach either. But the Fins need this one and getting 3.5 points from a lesser team, IMO is tough to lay off. Unless of course that under 32 degrees scares you off. Which is understandable.

New England: Blah. A **** game between two **** teams. Don't feel like writing about it.

Head Scratchers: Based on how the teams have played in the games that would normally stand out i.e. LV at KC, Sea at NY etc... you can see why the picker is going the way it is. THe Chiefs let everyone hang around as an example. It doesn't know Minshew is probably out for Vegas etc...

Game of the Week: Well this one is a no brainer. Philly heads to Baltimore. This should be awesome. Hell we might see 500 yards of rushing offense between the teams. Quick someone call Sammy Baugh he'd love this one.

Over the past month, the Eagles have averaged 31.25 points per game while allowing just 16.75 points, churning out a robust offense and a stingy defense. In contrast, the Ravens have scored an average of 30.5 points per game and conceded 21.25 points, indicating a potent offense but a slightly more vulnerable defense.

A key factor in this game will be the Eagles' ability to exploit the Ravens' defensive weaknesses. The Eagles have been effective in generating yards per play, averaging 5.9, compared to the Ravens' 5.5 over the past four games. Additionally, the Eagles' defense has been more efficient, allowing only 4.7 yards per play, whereas the Ravens have allowed 5.5 yards per play. This suggests the Eagles may have an edge in both offensive production and defensive resilience.

In terms of efficiency, the Eagles' offense has been more productive, requiring fewer yards per point scored (13.3) compared to the Ravens' 22.0. Defensively, the Eagles also hold an advantage, with 16.9 yards allowed per point against, while the Ravens allow 13.3. These statistics indicate that the Eagles are more efficient on both sides of the ball (no surprise), which could be a decisive factor in the outcome of this game. I like the Eagles and the points here with the Ravens coming off a tough physical battle with the Chargers and all the hype surrounding the Harbough Bowl.

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 2-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona - +1 Boo Murray
Olive Branches: 0-1 ****stains


Pure ****e day for the red birds, wasn’t it? Murray out there all confused, throwin’ a touchdown to the wrong feckin’ bird! And that oul’ **** kicker the Patriots banished to the desert flyin’ the ball to the right. Someone should’ve told the lads from Arizona that the bye week was over!

Sittin’ at 500% is no place to be, my friends. Though, I suppose it’s better than bein’ under it. Still, I’ll do better for ya, lads, I promise.

Right, let’s see if we can cash another ticket and refill those pots o’ gold. I tell ya, it’s been a tricky week, tryin’ to land on me Shamlock. After plenty of pontificatin’ and diggin’ through the stats, here it is:

Shamlock of the Week:

Pittsburgh +3
Another wee olive branch: Buccaneers -6

Let’s get it, lads! Sláinte!

 

[mgcolby]

Week 13 Predictions

Well it was a nice turkey day weekend for the picker. Had some nice calls Las Vegas, Arizona, Philly and probably not how it drew it up but Denver.

Either way 11-5 ATS is nothing to sneeze at across the board. For the original model it has now had winning weeks 3 out of the last 4 and 4 out of the last 6. Going 47-41, After starting off with three straight not only losing weeks but abysmal weeks and a record of 11-32.

As for the new models they get off the schneid with a winning week. They have faired better overall than the orginal even with their recent two week swoon. They are 4-2-1 in the past seven weeks after starting off with two losing weeks. Both are back over 50% ATS. Going 58-45 since the picker's week 3 (season week 7). That's 56%, can't be upset with that.

The biggest issue so far this season is the losing weeks are not 7-8 they are awful mostly 4-10 is with one 2-12 week. But that level of disparity is hard to overcome. Hopefully they continue a good run to finish up the rest of the season.

I also hope some of you on here find this useful. As always feedback and constructive criticism is welcome.

One note: The O/U for Model 2 is 49% and should be color coded red. But the conditional formatting formula in excel has an issue and I haven't looked at it yet.


Original


Model 1


Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

Week 14 Shamlock's Efficiency Rankings

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Not a bad week at all, if I do say so meself. And sure, who could argue with the number 69, lads? Well, unless we’re talkin’ about that one time when things got a wee bit fishy—ya know what I mean.

Four straight winning weeks for me power rankings, and I’d call that not too shabby, wouldn’t you? Over 71% of the time, the higher-ranked team put the lower one in its place. The proof’s in the puddin’, lads—this thing’s workin’ like a charm! Sláinte!

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To the Ladder Langers and Plungers for Week 14
First up, the Stallions of Denver and those made-up Birds of Seattle, both leapin’ 7 spots this week. Denver shot up by Donkey-punchin’ the ****e outta that Brownie—poor fellas probably still stuck to the Mile High turf. The Stallions? Sure, they’re likely still cleanin’ up the mess.

Then there’s the fairytale Birds of Seattle, carpet-bombin’ those model airplanes in Jersey. Or was it them goddamn pigeons? Feck knows. Either way, Johnson’s still thinkin’ that model glue doubles as lube, and sadly for his fans, they’re stuck with Johnson’s johnson firmly lodged where it shouldn’t be.

The Cubs? A sneaky 4-spot climb, even after losin’ to those cats in Detroit. Sure, it’s all based on numbers, but between us, I might’ve sprinkled a bit o’ leprechaun dust on ‘em for finally sackin’ that eejit who thought he was a coach. Good riddance!


Now, to the Plungers:
First, the purple birds of Baltimore, takin’ a 12-spot nosedive after those badass birds from Philly swooped in and showed ‘em what real wings look like. Not to mention, the Baltimore lads Tucked it like Buffalo Bill—proper embarrassing.

Next, them gold diggers out in the City of Freaks. Frozen out harder in Buffalo than Ron Jeremy at the Rainbow.

And finally, the mighty mites from Nashville. Marched into DC lookin’ for a scrap, only to get scalped by a team with no feckin’ name. Jaysus, lads, what a mess of a week for some of these lot.

Sláinte, and here’s to Week 14 givin’ us even more chaos!

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[mgcolby]

Week 14 Predictions

Alright week 14 already. Its like the season is flying by. Anyway, lets jump right in.


TNF: GB/Det:
The Detroit Lions (11-1) host the Green Bay Packers (9-3) this Thursday night in a pivotal NFC North showdown. The Lions' offense has been firing on all cylinders over the past month, averaging 31.25 points per game and amassing 446.25 yards per game. Quarterback Jared Goff leads a unit that ranks first in the league in total offense. However, Detroit's defense has been hit hard by injuries, with key players like defensive end Aidan Hutchinson sidelined due to a broken tibia and fibula, and linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez out for the season with a torn ACL.

Green Bay enters the game with a balanced attack, averaging 25.5 points per game and allowing just 17.5 points per game over the past month. Their defense has been particularly stout against the run, which could challenge Detroit's top-ranked rushing offense. The Packers' offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love, has been efficient, with Love completing 21 of 28 passes for 278 yards in their recent win against the Dolphins.

Despite the Lions' impressive offensive numbers, the multitude of injuries on defense raises concerns. With Hutchinson's absence impacting the pass rush and the D Line basically decimated (Alim McNeil is the only Dlineman playing Thursday that was on the Roster week 1), along with multiple linebackers on injured reserve….Detroit's defense may struggle to contain Green Bay's balanced offense. While the Lions are favored, the Packers' momentum and Detroit's defensive woes could make this matchup closer than anticipated. I am a huge fan of the Lions this season. But this divisional game is a tough spot for them, short week, a ton of injuries on defense etc...The only thing really giving them hope to cover here is they are home and their offense is capable of putting up 40+. Thinking I may disagree with the picker here and take the over.

Head Scratchers:

CAR/PHI:
The Eagles host the Panthers in a matchup where Philly is laying 12.5 points, and it’s not hard to see why. Over the past month, the Eagles have been dominant on both sides of the ball, averaging 30.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 15.75. Their defense has been especially suffocating, giving up only 268 yards per game (ypg) and holding opponents to a mere 4.8 yards per play. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and company continue to churn out nearly 380 ypg, showcasing a balanced attack that few teams have been able to slow down.

Carolina, on the other hand, has been competitive but inconsistent. Over the last month, they’ve averaged 23.25 ppg, but their defense has been a liability, surrendering a hefty 401.25 ypg and 23.75 ppg. The Panthers’ 5.8 yards per play allowed highlights a unit that struggles to limit big plays, something that could be disastrous against an Eagles offense that thrives in those situations. If there’s a bright spot for Carolina, it’s that they’ve found a rhythm offensively, even if it hasn’t translated into wins.

Philadelphia’s defense has been dealing with some injuries, but the return of key players like DeVonta Smith and Darius Slay could make an already lopsided matchup even tougher for Carolina. The 12.5-point spread is steep, but considering the Eagles’ dominance and the Panthers’ defensive issues, it’s tough to argue against it. As for Shamlock’s Efficiency Rankings—Philly at 2 and Carolina at 19—the leprechaun might finally be onto something here. I want to disagree with the picker here and take the Eagles -12.5. The thing that prevents me is they are coming off a cross country game out in LA and a hard fought physical battle against Baltimore. Also the Panthers have nothing to lose here. I am amazed that all three models are rolling with the dog here. I think I will lay off this one.

NYG/NO:
The Giants return home to host the Saints in a matchup where New Orleans is laying 5.5 points. Over the past month, the Saints have averaged 22.75 points per game (ppg) while surrendering just 18.75, thanks in large part to a bend-but-don’t-break defense that’s been solid in critical moments. Offensively, they’ve been moving the ball effectively, averaging 398 yards per game (ypg), though their 17.5 yards per point efficiency suggests they’re leaving points on the field. Defensively, they’ve been solid, particularly in the red zone, holding opponents to a 51.4% touchdown rate.

The Giants, meanwhile, continue to struggle offensively, managing only 16.5 ppg and 290 ypg over the last month. On defense, things haven’t been much better—they’ve allowed 26 ppg and 358 ypg, with a concerning inability to stop opponents on third down. Their 42.4% red zone conversion rate on offense adds to their woes, making it difficult to keep up with even middling offenses like New Orleans.

The Saints’ road inconsistencies add some intrigue here, but the Giants’ inability to execute on offense makes them tough to back. The 5.5-point spread feels manageable for New Orleans, who should control the pace with their efficient offense and reliable defense. The wild card here is the loss of Hill. He does so much for that offense, especially from an opponent game planning perspective that I really don't know to what level that will deal a blow to New Orleans. The total of 40.5 points looks conservative, but given the Giants’ offensive struggles, a low-scoring affair seems likely.

CHI/SF:
The Bears head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in a matchup of two struggling teams, with the Niners laying 4.5 points. Over the past month, neither team has been lighting up the scoreboard. Chicago has averaged 17.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing 23 ppg, and their offense has been a slog, putting up just 308 yards per game (ypg). On the flip side, the 49ers are scoring a measly 15 ppg but giving up a whopping 28.25 ppg during the same stretch. Talk about an unstoppable force meeting a very movable object.

San Francisco’s defense has been unusually leaky, surrendering 387.75 ypg over the last month, but their offense hasn’t done them any favors. Averaging just 6.2 yards per play (YPP) and converting only 48.9% of their red zone opportunities, they’ve struggled to capitalize when it counts. The Bears, meanwhile, have been equally ineffective in the red zone, with a 66.7% conversion rate that looks better on paper but hasn’t translated into wins.

The 44-point total feels about right, as both teams have shown they can grind out points without much flash. The spread, however, might be too generous to the 49ers, given their recent defensive struggles. Shamlock might have the Bears ranked 26th and the Niners 28th, but let’s be honest—the Irishman probably took the week off for this one. This feels like a coin flip, with both teams trying to find any semblance of momentum. Take the points if you must, but I would tread lightly.

Game of the Week:
LAC/KC:
The Chargers head to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in what feels like the game of the week. Both teams have been steady over the past month, but Kansas City holds the edge as the home team, averaging 21.5 points per game (ppg) while allowing just 22. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been the more explosive team offensively, putting up 25.25 ppg but conceding 21.75. With two evenly matched offenses (5.3 YPP for the Chargers vs. 5.2 for the Chiefs), this one could come down to who makes the fewest mistakes.

Kansas City’s defense has been slightly better at limiting yardage, allowing 348.5 yards per game (ypg) compared to the Chargers’ 370 ypg. However, the Chiefs’ 52.1% red zone efficiency on offense has left points on the board, a stat that could be exploited by a Chargers team that has converted 53.3% of their trips inside the 20. Defensively, the Chiefs have shown cracks in critical situations, allowing a 51.3% red zone success rate.

The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites, but the Chargers’ offensive firepower makes this spread tricky. The over/under of 43 feels low given the combined scoring potential and defensive inconsistencies on both sides. Shamlock might have the Chiefs at 14 and the Chargers at 12, but with these margins, it’s anyone’s game. A tight, middle-scoring clash seems inevitable in Arrowhead. I like the Chargers with the points, and I like them to pull off the upset in KC too.

MNF:
Monday Night Football heads to AT&T Stadium as the Cowboys host the Bengals in what is most likely to be a high-scoring affair. Over the past month, Cincinnati’s offense has been electric, averaging 35 points per game (ppg) and a whopping 417.5 yards per game (ypg). Joe Burrow has been dealing, the Bengals are converting 71.1% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. However, the Bengals’ defense has been a mess, allowing 34.25 ppg and 390.25 ypg. It’s been a shootout every week for Cincinnati, and they’re 50/50 on whether that formula works.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been struggling offensively, putting up just 19.25 ppg on 295.75 ypg over the last month. The Cowboys’ defense has been equally uninspiring, allowing 28.5 ppg. That kind of production doesn’t bode well against the Bengals’ juggernaut attack. Their 43.8% red zone success rate on offense and an abysmal 76.9% touchdown rate allowed on defense in the red zone highlight just how tough things have been for Dallas in critical moments.

With Cincinnati favored by 5.5, it’s hard to trust a Dallas team that hasn’t shown it can keep up offensively or defensively. The 50-point total feels attainable given both defenses’ struggles and Cincinnati’s firepower. I think I will have to roll out the chalk for this one.

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock of Week 14

Shamlock Presents: Shamlock's Pick of the Week!​

Record: 3-2​

Week 9: Detroit -7.5 Cheers
Week 10: Atlanta -3.5 Boo Yoo
Week 11: Houston -7.5 Cheers
Week 12: Arizona - +1 Boo Murray
Week 13: Pittsburgh - +3 Lord Mercy Bless them Pick Sixes
Olive Branches: 0-1 ****stains
Olive Branches: 0-2 Pirates who can't score from the 1 yard line!

Yes, lads, isn’t it a fine sight when the tickets are cashin’ and the pot o' gold's lookin’ healthier than a leprechaun with a fresh pint! Big thanks to the boys from the Iron City—or maybe we should be thankin’ the gambling gods for blessin’ us with Jameis Winston and his divine gift of pick sixes. Here’s hopin’ the good Lord takes his time deliverin’ him from those pick sixes—We love the feckers!

Now, onto this week’s Shamlock! Down in Miami, the fish’ll be swimmin’ freely, and not a Dolphin’ll get tangled in the tuna net, so they won’t. As for those model airplanes? I reckon they’ll crash and burn a few times before findin’ the end zone. Points will be flyin’, lads, and that’s where the magic is this week.

NY Jets @ Miami Over 45

Let’s keep the winnings rollin’, lads. Sláinte!

If you’re not followin’ me on that X thing (Shamlock), you’re proper missin’ out on these wee nuggets o’ gold (or possibly fool's gold), so ya are!

"Talkin' ****e with Shamlock: Ah, plenty o’ cats at the vet in Detroit this week, especially them big feckers on defense. The Cheeseheads are headin’ to the Motor City, lookin’ to put the kitties to sleep, so they are. But I don’t reckon there’ll be any tailpipe Packin’ from them Green Bay lads. One thing’s for sure, though—the poor scoreboard fella’ll have a sore wrist when this one’s all said and done!

 

[mgcolby]

Week 14 Results

A good week ATS and Straight up by the new models. The OG had a push. And then a kick to the berries by a mule. That one is rough. I will be honest I am not a big over under player typically. So I tend to not follow that as much as I imagine others do. The new models didn't fair much better on the over unders but it was better than the original. But they did have another winning week. For those counting that is back-to-back winning weeks for the new models and they are 5-4-1 ATS on the season thus far, going 5-2-1 over the past 8 weeks. They are 66-49-1 during that stretch or 57%.

My season goal for the new models is to finish the regular season at a minimum of 55%. 56+ would be outstanding, but 55% is the goal heading into the playoffs. I am putting together a weekly tracker to count how many wins it needs to reach between 50 and 60%. Its a damn shame its losing weeks were so lopsided and not the 6-8, 7-9 variety. They were all 4 and 5 win weeks which really stings. But hopefully it continues its winning ways down the stretch. Just for the record I am shooting for the OG to finish at 50%, so it can go out with its golden watch and its head held up high.

In addition, I will be rolling out its record based on the predicted spread differential. Have to go back through the weekly workbooks and see where the two mismatches are. I should have that figured out sometime tomorrow.



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Model 1


Model 2

 

[mgcolby]

As promised the spread differential record. I believe it is self-explanatory, let me know if you have any questions.

From here on out I will add it to the weekly predictions post for easier use with the picker models. For now, posting it here so you can check it out. Not sure if it's really useful or not. I kept up with it for a long time and this year just let it go to the wayside in the new workbook not fixing broken formula links.

Was hoping to have a new feature to test out before the season ends. Not sure I will get it done in time. Seemed a bit easier than it has turned out to be. But will keep plugging away at it and at a minimum hope to run it against this years data and to see its accuracy then add it as a new "confidence" feature next year along with the predictions.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 15 Predictions
Another week is upon us. Hoping for another winning week. I want to make one note but I am rolling my write ups over to Model 2. I know I said I would use the original picker for the whole season. But I think enough data is in thus far and also this week they only differ on three games. With that said I got a little crazy with the cheese whiz this week with 11 write ups. Probably should of just did the rest of the games. Maybe I will before Sunday.

Note: I learned there is a 15,000-character limit on the posts. So, I am splitting this one up into two.

TNF: Rams @ 49ers
The Rams visit San Francisco in a divisional matchup that promises fireworks. Both teams have shown their share of flaws over the past month, but it’s the Rams who’ve been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging 28.25 points per game (ppg) on 367.75 yards per game (ypg). The problem? Their defense has been a turnstile, allowing 28.75 ppg and an eye-popping 408.75 ypg. It’s a feast-or-famine setup that seems tailor-made for chaos.

The 49ers, by contrast, have leaned heavily on their defense, allowing just 287 ypg, the fourth-best mark in the league over the last month. Recently however, their offense has been pedestrian up until last week. Scoring only 18.75 ppg, including last week's game and struggling in the red zone with a 52.9% touchdown rate. Their 6.3 yards per play (YPP) on offense shows they can move the ball, but finishing drives has been a glaring issue. Against a Rams defense that’s allowing nearly 29 ppg, they could keep the offensive wagon rolling steady.

The spread sits at 3.5, with San Francisco as the favorite, but the Rams’ offensive firepower makes this game tough to call. The 47-point total feels attainable given the Rams’ defensive struggles and the Niners’ efficiency on a per-play basis. I like the Rams here and the over. This should be a fun one.

Patriots @ Cardinals:
The Patriots head to the desert to face the Cardinals in a matchup where Arizona is laying 6.5 points. Over the past month, the Patriots have shown flashes offensively, averaging 350.25 yards per game (ypg), but the production hasn’t translated into points, sitting at just 20 per game. Their red zone offense has been particularly ineffective, converting only 44.7% of trips into touchdowns. Defensively, they’ve held their own, allowing 22.5 points per game (ppg) and just 292.5 ypg, but it hasn’t been enough to compensate for their lackluster scoring.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are putting up 19.25 ppg while allowing 18.75 over the same stretch. Their 5.9 yards per play (YPP) on offense indicates an ability to move the ball, but red zone efficiency at 51.2% leaves plenty to be desired. Arizona’s defense has been slightly better in key situations, holding opponents to 47.8% success in the red zone, which could be the difference against a Patriots offense that already struggles to finish drives.

The over/under at 44.5 feels spot on, as neither team has shown the firepower to consistently light up the scoreboard. With a spread of 6.5, the Patriots seem like a live dog, particularly if their defense can frustrate Arizona in the red zone. Shamlock might have Arizona ranked 15th and New England 20th, but let’s be honest, the leprechaun isn’t betting his pot of gold on either of these teams. This one feels like a grind. With the picker here, I'd take the points and the under.

Head Scratchers:
Ravens @ Giants
The Ravens travel to the Meadowlands as 15-point favorites against the struggling Giants, and let’s just say, the numbers don’t make a strong case for New York pulling off an upset. Over the past month, Baltimore’s offense has been humming along, averaging 25 points per game (ppg) and a robust 369.75 yards per game (ypg). Meanwhile, their defense has shown some cracks, allowing 24.75 ppg, but their ability to generate 6.8 yards per play (YPP) offensively keeps them ahead of most opponents.

The Giants, on the other hand, are limping into this matchup, averaging just 13.75 ppg and 289.75 ypg over the last month. With a dismal 41.7% red zone conversion rate, they’ve struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Their defense has been slightly better, holding teams to 22.75 ppg, but with an offense this anemic, even a decent defensive effort feels like a drop in the bucket against a team like Baltimore.

The 44.5-point total feels about right, as this game could easily devolve into a Baltimore-dominated affair. The Ravens’ offensive efficiency and the Giants’ inability to put points on the board make the 15-point spread look attainable for Baltimore. I think Baltimore covers, and the under might be worth a look. But overall, this is a bit to rich for me. I'm a no play on this one .

SNF:
The Packers travel to Seattle for what promises to be a close contest, with Green Bay favored by 3.5. Over the past month, Green Bay’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 29.75 points per game (ppg) on 344.25 yards per game (ypg). They’ve also been efficient in the red zone, converting 57.4% of opportunities into touchdowns. However, their defense has been suspect, allowing 349.5 ypg and showing vulnerability against the run.

Seattle’s recent performances paint a different picture. The Seahawks have averaged 23 ppg on 310.5 ypg over the last month, with their defense standing out, giving up just 15.5 ppg and holding opponents to a mere 5.4 yards per play (YPP). Seattle’s red zone defense has been particularly effective, allowing touchdowns on only 52.2% of trips, which could be key in limiting Green Bay’s high-powered attack.

The over/under sits at 47, and with both offenses capable of putting up points, the over could hit here. Seattle’s defensive edge and home-field advantage make the +3.5 spread intriguing, especially if they can pressure Jordan Love and force mistakes. I think this one will be razor-close. Feels like a last-second field goal could decide this one. I have not had much confidence in Seattle the past several weeks and they keep proving me wrong. I know Green Bay is playing excellent football, but with Seattle keeping things close its hard not to take the points here.

Game of the Week:
Bills @ Lions:
The Lions host the Bills in what could be a Super Bowl preview and the game of the week. Over the past month, Detroit has been lighting it up offensively, averaging 457.75 yards per game (ypg) and 33.25 points per game, both of which lead the league. Their defense has also been solid, allowing just 15.75 ppg and 259.25 ypg. Add to that a league-best 47.2% defensive red zone success rate, and it’s clear why Detroit is slightly favored in this showdown.

Buffalo, however, isn’t far behind. The Bills are averaging 34.25 ppg and 399.5 ypg over the past month, fueled by Josh Allen and a strong ground game that ranks fifth in the league. But their defense has been a bit shakier, allowing 23.75 ppg and 329 ypg in that span. One area to watch is the Bills' struggles in the red zone on defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns 54.2% of the time, which could be a problem against a Lions offense converting 67.3% of its red zone trips.

The 1.5-point spread in Detroit’s favor reflects just how tight this matchup is, and the over/under of 51.5 feels like a lock given these two high-powered offenses. Two efficient offenses, questionable defenses in key spots (especially the injury front for the Lions) and a Detroit team finally living up to its hype. This should be a barnburner, and the Lions’ home-field advantage might be just enough to secure the win. Lean Detroit on the Moneyline and the over here.

MNF: Another two-fer. Stupid contract the NFL signed. Maybe I'm in the minority but I am not a fan of the two Monday night games. Opening week was fine when they had an early (East coast game) and late (West coast game) but two essentially at the same time is not all that appealing to me. Anyway off my soap box. Not to mention two less than inspiring games on the docket. May get some brownie points here with the Mrs and find a hallmark movie, probably more digestible than these two duds.

Bears @ Vikings:
The Bears travel to Minnesota in what looks like a lopsided divisional clash. Over the past month, the Vikings have been rolling offensively, averaging 29.5 points per game (ppg) and 369 yards per game (ypg). While their defense has given up 398.5 ypg, they’ve held opponents to just 20.75 ppg, thanks to timely stops and a decent red zone success rate, allowing touchdowns on 54.1% of opponent trips. This is a team finding ways to win despite giving up chunks of yardage.

Chicago, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. Over the last month, the Bears have managed just 19.75 ppg while giving up a staggering 27.75 ppg and 418.75 ypg. Their defense has been porous, especially against the pass, allowing 5.9 yards per play (YPP). Offensively, their red zone efficiency of 69% looks decent on paper but hasn’t been enough to compensate for their defensive struggles. To make matters worse, Caleb Williams has taken a league-high 25 sacks over the past month, and with Minnesota’s pass rush heating up, it could be a long day for the Bears’ offense.

With the Vikings favored by 5.5, it’s hard to see Chicago covering unless their defense suddenly finds its footing. The total of 42.5 feels reachable with Minnesota’s offensive output and Chicago’s defensive woes. Shamlock’s likely betting his pot of gold on the Vikings here, and honestly, who could blame him? This one feels like a blowout waiting to happen.

Falcons @ Raiders:
The Falcons head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders in a matchup that only has draft positioning at stake. Atlanta has struggled mightily over the past month, averaging just 14.25 points per game (ppg) despite putting up 385 yards per game (ypg). Their inefficiency is glaring, with a league-worst 27.0 yards per point (YPPt), a stat that highlights their inability to finish drives. Defensively, it doesn’t get much better—they’re allowing 29.25 ppg and a brutal 61.9% red zone success rate to opponents.

The Raiders haven’t been much better, managing only 17 ppg on 354.25 ypg over the same span. Their offense is stagnant, with a 45.7% red zone conversion rate that ranks near the bottom of the league. Defensively, Las Vegas has given up 27.5 ppg and 356.75 ypg, and much like Atlanta, they’ve been exposed in the red zone, allowing a 62% success rate. While both teams are defensively porous, the Raiders’ slight edge in limiting big plays could prove pivotal.

The 44-point total feels a bit generous considering both teams’ scoring woes. With the Raiders as 4.5-point underdogs, this game could easily come down to a field goal, making the spread worth a second look. If anything, this matchup feels like a test of which team can make fewer mistakes. Lean Raiders, but don’t expect fireworks.

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Combo View

 

[mgcolby]

Bonus Write Ups:
Can't really find another head scratcher so I guess I'll give a couple of bonus writeup on some other good games. And because of the character limit putting these in a separate post.

Dolphins @ Texans:
The Miami Dolphins head to Houston to face the Texans in a matchup with significant playoff implications. Miami, riding a four-game winning streak, has averaged 29.25 points per game over the past month, while their defense has allowed 22.5 points per game. Houston, leading the AFC South, has averaged 26.75 points offensively and conceded 22 points per game in the same span. Notably, Miami's red zone efficiency stands at 58.5%, compared to Houston's 53.3%.

Defensively, the Texans have been formidable, ranking second in the league with a 43.8% pressure rate. This could spell trouble for Miami's offensive line, especially with left tackle Terron Armstead dealing with a knee injury that may sideline him. Rookie Patrick Paul is expected to step in, but his inexperience could be a vulnerability against Houston's pass rush.

Historically, the Texans have held the upper hand in this series, winning eight of their eleven matchups. However, recent trends suggest a shift, as Miami has taken three of the last four meetings. With both teams eyeing playoff positioning, this game feels like a pivotal test. Miami’s dynamic offense will look to maintain its high-scoring ways, but Houston’s relentless pass rush could be the equalizer. Expect a tightly contested game where every possession will matter. Probably a rare over bet for me on Draft Kings. Either way should be an excellent game.

Browns @ Chiefs:
The Chiefs host the Browns in a matchup with playoff implications for both teams. Kansas City has been steady if unspectacular over the past month, averaging 22.25 points per game (ppg) while allowing 22.75. The Chiefs’ offense has been efficient on a per-play basis (5.1 YPP) but struggles in the red zone, converting just 51% of trips into touchdowns. On the other hand, Cleveland’s defense has been porous, surrendering 30.5 ppg and 377 yards per game (ypg) over the same span, suggesting the Chiefs might find some breathing room offensively.

Cleveland’s offense, meanwhile, has been racking up yards (399.75 ypg) but failing to translate that into consistent scoring, averaging just 21 ppg. Their 4.7 YPP (yards per point) highlights inefficiency, particularly compared to Kansas City’s defensive mark of 5.3 YPP (yards per point) allowed. The Browns have also been a disaster in the red zone defensively, allowing opponents to convert 60% of opportunities, which could tilt the game further in Kansas City’s favor.

The spread sits at -6.5 for Kansas City, and it’s hard to see Cleveland covering given their defensive struggles. However, the Chiefs just can't seem to put anyone away regardless of their opponent's quality level. The over/under of 44.5 feels attainable if the Browns can maintain their yardage production, but turnovers have been an issue, with Cleveland tied for the fourth-most giveaways in the league. I would play the percentages here and throw a buck or two on the dawg here.

Steelers @ Eagles:
The Steelers head to Philly for a Keystone State showdown as 5.5-point underdogs in what could be a closer game than the spread suggests. Over the past month, Pittsburgh has averaged 27 points per game (ppg) and 364.5 yards per game (ypg), showing life offensively after a sluggish start to the season. Their defense, while not elite, has held opponents to 23 ppg and 327 ypg. One glaring weakness is their red zone struggles on offense, converting only 45.7% of trips into touchdowns—something they can’t afford against the Eagles.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, averaging 27.25 ppg while allowing just 18.25, all while holding opponents to 307 ypg over the last month. The Eagles’ efficiency shines, with a 59.2% red zone touchdown rate on offense and just 48.7% allowed on defense. They’re also winning the battle in the trenches, allowing just 4.7 yards per play (YPP) compared to the Steelers’ 5.3, and their ground game ranks fourth in rushing yards per game, a potential issue for Pittsburgh’s inconsistent run defense.

The over/under at 45.5 feels attainable with both teams showing offensive sparks recently. While Philly’s the clear favorite, Pittsburgh’s improved offense and knack for keeping games close could make the 5.5-point spread interesting. The Picker likes the Eagles for the win, but I think the Steelers make it uncomfortable. Expect Philly to pull it out, but this could be tighter than expected.

Buccaneers @ Chargers:
The Buccaneers head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 3.5-point underdogs in a matchup that’s closer than it might seem at first glance. Over the past month, Tampa Bay’s offense has been humming, averaging 26 points per game (ppg) on 382.75 yards per game (ypg). Their efficiency in the red zone has been stellar, converting 68.6% of trips into touchdowns. Meanwhile, their defense has been lights out, allowing just 16.5 ppg and holding opponents to 5.6 yards per play (YPP).

The Chargers, on the other hand, have struggled with consistency. Their offense has managed 22.75 ppg and 298.75 ypg, but a red zone conversion rate of 54.5% highlights missed opportunities. Defensively, the Chargers have been vulnerable, giving up 372.25 ypg and allowing opponents to score on 41.9% of red zone trips. While their 5.2 YPP allowed is respectable, it’s been big plays at critical moments that have kept them on the wrong side of close games.

The over/under of 46.5 feels doable here, but the real value lies in Tampa Bay’s ability to cover the spread—or even win outright. With the Bucs’ recent dominance on both sides of the ball, this feels like a game where the Chargers’ defensive issues could be exposed. Shamlock’s likely grumbling about the Chargers’ inefficiency while giving a sly nod to Tampa’s potential for an upset. I like Tampa here a lot.