Pats @ Texans, all-22 rewatch thread

[TomPatriot]

Harry had already lost one fight for the ball, on a throw where he had all the advantages. Why would anyone expect Brady to throw him a 50/50 ball after that?

Because Harry runs some types of routes better than others. He’s better at fighting for the ball on a fade than a dig.

 

[Deus Irae]

Because Harry runs some types of routes better than others. He’s better at fighting for the ball on a fade than a dig.

It would have been beyond stupid to deliberately draw up a play designed to throw him a 50/50 ball after that pick. Harry's specialty is supposed to be his physicality, yet he got out-muscled on a routine pass.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Sorry this doesn't make sense. Another step upfield would have messed up the timing worse since this is essentially a 3 step route.

Watch the clip. Release, which isn't bad ... Right, left, right (plant)

3rd step is his plant which he's supposed to explode off to create contact. Poor plant & awful job using his body.

Agreed. He needed to flatten that route at the cut and leave Roby on his back, so he had leverage to make the catch. The first down marker was another stride upfield, but he wasn't supposed to get there until after the catch

 

[TomPatriot]

It would have been beyond stupid to deliberately draw up a play designed to throw him a 50/50 ball after that pick. Harry's specialty is supposed to be his physicality, yet he got out-muscled on a routine pass.

It might be exactly the time to do that, right after he gets chewed out for not fighting for the ball. I would think as dedicated a player as Harry seems to be would not want to be outmuscled twice.

He caught a back shoulder pass for a TD against the Cowboys. That was a physical play.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Agreed. He needed to flatten that route at the cut and leave Roby on his back, so he had leverage to make the catch. The first down marker was another stride upfield, but he wasn't supposed to get there until after the catch

Brady used Edleman as an indicator but that also cleared out the underneath since the LB was watching 11. Meyers cleared out some space on his route.

Harry would have had a decent amount of green in front of him if he made that play.

 

[Deus Irae]

It might be exactly the time to do that, right after he gets chewed out for not fighting for the ball. I would think as dedicated a player as Harry seems to be would not want to be outmuscled twice.

He caught a back shoulder pass for a TD against the Cowboys. That was a physical play.

If he were a veteran who'd just screwed up, sure. But he's a rookie with just a couple of games under his belt. You let him figure it out on the practice field, with the coaching staff going over it with him. You don't do it as part of giving up another INT during the same game.

And, if they had thrown to him again, and he had blown another play, the same people crying about him not getting another opportunity would be calling for heads to roll because they threw the ball to a rookie who'd already screwed up and allowed an interception.

 

[TomPatriot]

If he were a veteran who'd just screwed up, sure. But he's a rookie with just a couple of games under his belt. You let him figure it out on the practice field, with the coaching staff going over it with him. You don't do it as part of giving up another INT during the same game.

They don’t have that luxury for reasons you’ve highlighted on this site. Besides, practice isn’t like playing in a game. He’s playing in his third game, learning on the fly and that results in mistakes. So what? I think that’s how rookies learn.

You’re also assuming he would react the same way on a different play where he ran another route. I don’t think that’s necessarily a good assumption.

 

[Deus Irae]

They don’t have that luxury for reasons you’ve highlighted on this site. Besides, practice isn’t like playing in a game. He’s playing in his third game, learning on the fly and that results in mistakes. So what? I think that’s how rookies learn.

You’re also assuming he would react the same way on a different play where he ran another route. I don’t think that’s necessarily a good assumption.

They don't have the luxury of throwing more balls to get picked off. This isn't a 1-10 team playing out the string.


And, I'm just going to assume that you're trolling with the whole "So what about the mistakes" and "You're assuming is bad, my assuming is awesome" things, because that's really a best case scenario there, particularly since you're assuming that I'm assuming something I'm not.

 

[SVN]

Is harry always on the left side of the offense or is he being moved around ?

 

[TomPatriot]

They don't have the luxury of throwing more balls to get picked off. This isn't a 1-10 team playing out the string.


And, I'm just going to assume that you're trolling with the whole "So what about the mistakes" and "You're assuming is bad, my assuming is awesome" things, because that's really a best case scenario there, particularly since you're assuming that I'm assuming something I'm not.

I’m trying to participate in a discussion about how N’Keal Harry should have been utilized after the pick in the Texans’ game. I’m not “trolling.” I just think PP2 was right.

But since Brady didn’t throw a 50/50 jump ball to Harry, and JM didn’t dial up that play, you have far better football minds than mine on your side.

 

[Kontradiction]

Harry had already lost one fight for the ball, on a throw where he had all the advantages. Why would anyone expect Brady to throw him a 50/50 ball after that?

I wanted it because, before the Texans went into a soft zone to exchange time for yards, there was literally nothing else working. Add to that the fact that they were already getting blown out on the road, why not give the kid a shot? A 9 route or deep post doesn’t require the precision on your cuts that slants and crossers do and you’re not operating in a ton of traffic. Throw it up there and see what happens. At worst, it’s intercepted when you’re already losing handily on the road and, if it’s a deep route, it’s essentially a punt. At best, he comes down with it and we’re in business. It may also give him some confidence.

 

[Deus Irae]

Add to that the fact that they were already getting blown out on the road, why not give the kid a shot?

Because he'd already been the biggest part of the problem, and he has no business being on the field at that point. This kid should be redshirting this season after his injury, but the team's done a piss poor job of handling the WR position, so he's out on the field.

It's not that he's to blame for being injured and missing so many games, but he was injured and missed a ****load of games. He's obviously not ready to be out there, and making him the starter was asinine. So you give him another week to watch and learn without killing the team. That next week, if you wish, you give him another opportunity to see if anything's clicked for him. And, if he screws up like that again, you bench/freeze his ass again. The team is trying to win games, and you don't win games by playing guys who don't know what the hell they're doing, unless their talent is so exceptional that it doesn't matter.

Harry's talent is obviously not at that level of exceptional.

 

[SVN]

Interesting observation by orlovsky on meyers route running on the goal line

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think there is some aspects to be encouraged by Meyers. His metrics are pretty good for a rookie WR - 62.9% catch rate & 13.6 yards per reception. These are just plays from the first half:

1) Posters have mentioned previously but on the play that was meant to go to Harry, Meyers did separate in the middle of the field



2) An example of a negative. Posters with more knowledge could correct me. Why are two players side by side running verticals in the first quarter? Meyers should be coming in more right? He has a sizeable gain if he runs the right route



3) Edelman takes the underneath defenders. Meyers is open against zone for a sizeable gain



4) Edelman is doubled. Meyers separates from his man but Cannon ends the play



5) Edelman doubled. Meyers trips up the cornerback in man & the underneath defender is in zone. There is a first down to be had but Brady launches it to Edelman



6) Meyers beats his man. Cannon ends the play



7) Edelman doubled. Meyers beats his man but Brady is going deep to Dorsett. Dorsett runs the wrong route as this play could have been a big gain if he goes vertical



8) Meyers is open vs cover 2 zone. What looks like a bad Brady pass on the TV angle may be Meyers drifting too upfield



In just the first half Meyers showed he has potential & can separate vs man. He also showed his fair share of rookie mistakes - drifting on a potential TD in the endzone, running the wrong route, not understanding Brady's hand signal & not settling in a zone

This kid can play. Unlike Thompkins 46.4% catch rate & Dobson 51.4% there have been a decent amount of positives with the negatives. Healthy Sanu in the slot with Edelman, Meyers & Dorsett rotating on the outside (Harry redzone specific?) may be the way to salvage the offense

Love this well put together post. I’ve been banging the drum for Meyers but really couldn’t articulate it like this. I think he may be their best hope to become an effective offense, as he has the athleticism to do so, whereas I feel like other guys are just what they are which isn’t enough. Doesn’t seem like he’s completely screwing up out there but just slightly off. Really trying to work with him individually and often is probably Brady’s best hope to improve the offense. Things I’d like to see here:

Meyers given more targets (it does seem like Brady is at least looking for him more often now). He also had a very impressive YAC play, and I’d like to see a screen pass or two his way; he’s hard to tackle and is quite strong. I don’t recall them throwing more than a few screens this year. I think Meyers has a lot of talent and could be the next #1 Patriots receiver. He just seems to have an understanding of how to create space, with and without the ball, and he has great hands. He might be their best 50/50 receiver as well.

Red zone...I’m repeating the idea of @PP2 and would also like to see the pony used with Burkhead and White. The Patriots really need to use every advantage possible, and having two good dual threat backs is something that most teams do not have. I think you need to put your five best red zone players on the field...in watching the red zone offense (for example, that Dorsett play) it’s incredibly frustrating because there’s usually 1-2 targets who have absolutely no chance to win their matchups, resulting in, at best, an incredibly difficult completion. I also noticed either the safety or linebacker starting to move towards Dorsett, so

Burkhead, White, Edelman, healthy Sanu, and Meyers seem to be the best short yardage guys who have either the versatility or quickness to score, so why not go with this? Michel (unless running), LaCosse, Watson, Dorsett, and Harry (for now) are just not guys who can excel near the goal line, even if their position and/or place on the depth chart suggests they should be on the field near the goal line in passing downs. Harry did have a great TD, but he seems to be a mess right now. Brady really has nothing to work with and McDaniels needs to, at the very least, create an isolation matchup that has a chance. If that pass to Dorsett is considered “a good opportunity” the bar is really, really low. Feel like putting in your best red zone skilled players - and building from that - should be pretty obvious to an offensive coordinator, and it seems so often that, based on personnel alone, the offense is already defeated before the snap. This has frustrated me for years with McDaniels. Hope this isn’t a “hot take.”

 

[luuked]

Burkhead, White, Edelman, healthy Sanu, and Meyers seem to be the best short yardage guys who have either the versatility or quickness to score, so why not go with this? Michel (unless running), LaCosse, Watson, Dorsett, and Harry (for now) are just not guys who can excel near the goal line, even if their position and/or place on the depth chart suggests they should be on the field near the goal line in passing downs.

I don't think you will get many RZ sets without a TE on the field to help with protection. Also believe it or not LaCosse got doubled by the Texans in the redzone (can be seen on the Brady/Dorsett overthrow debacle).

The essential core from my POV needs to be Edelman, Sanu (when healthy) and White. Build mismatches around that based on location on the field and the opponent's personnel. Sometimes this will mean 2 TE, sometimes you might be able to match up Harry on a shorter CB and go for a fade or a high point catch and so on.


In terms of the Pony I like the formation but I am not sure what advantage we would gain right now from it. Teams will just play it with more DBs until the team can show that they can kill the defense's light personnel with runs out of it. But maybe you or @PP2 can elaborate a bit on what mismatches I am missing.

Also personally I hope they keep giving Harry chances but in scenarios where he can play more to his strengths. Timing and exact route running are clearly not it, yet. Right now I am honestly a bit confused about how he is being used given who he has been in college. It is almost like McDaniels is trying to fit a square into a circle. But then again they are the ones who see him in practice every day.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't think you will get many RZ sets without a TE on the field to help with protection. Also believe it or not LaCosse got doubled by the Texans in the redzone (can be seen on the Brady/Dorsett overthrow debacle).

The essential core from my POV needs to be Edelman, Sanu (when healthy) and White. Build mismatches around that based on location on the field and the opponent's personnel. Sometimes this will mean 2 TE, sometimes you might be able to match up Harry on a shorter CB and go for a fade or a high point catch.


In terms of the Pony I like the formation but I am not sure what advantage we would gain right now from it. Teams will just play it with more DBs until the team can show that they can kill the defense's light personnel with runs out of it. But maybe you or @PP2 can elaborate a bit on what mismatches I am missing.

If they load up with DBs, Brady shifts under center and Burkhead moves behind him and takes the handoff while White splits out...could also be a surprise playaction. They should be able to exploit that considering Burkhead is a power runner as well as a receiving threat...as Belichick points out he is a rare four down back. There are just a lot of different options you get having Burkhead in there...and if both White and Burkhead come out of the backfield as pass catchers, one of them is going to be singled, or else Edelman or Sanu will have a lot easier time...one could also sit back and pass block for extra protection.

With Burkhead and White each have a multitude of options, there’s a lot of shifting and motioning that can be done based on the personnel, while currently there’s virtually none of it. Last year’s offense clicked when they started shifting Develin, Gronk, and even Patterson. All three had various skills that could be adjusted pre-snap to attack different defensive looks. White and Burkhead are really the only players who can be moved around strategically right now since they have dual threat versatility.

The personnel they’re using now is not working. If they have versatility, especially options for run/pass disguises, they need to use them. Right now it’s so obvious when they’re running or passing and defenses have them figured out. And I don’t know how valuable a TE is there if he isn’t a pass catching threat or a great blocker. The defense will just put another lineman or linebacker over him...he doesn’t add anything.

 

[luuked]

If they load up with DBs, Brady shifts under center and Burkhead moves behind him and takes the handoff while White splits out...could also be a surprise playaction. They should be able to exploit that considering Burkhead is a power runner as well as a receiving threat...as Belichick points out he is a rare four down back. There are just a lot of different options you get having Burkhead in there...and if both White and Burkhead come out of the backfield as pass catchers, one of them is going to be singled, or else Edelman or Sanu will have a lot easier time...one could also sit back and pass block for extra protection.

I understand that. But given what we have seen from run blocking so far I am not sure what to expect when we run out of a light formation ourselves. That is why I wrote "until the team actually shows they can kill light personnel out of this formation..". Obviously once a team needs go a bit heavier to stop the bleeding on runs then the formation would shine because you'd be guaranteed to get a matchup on LB and potential other mismatches if you spread it out.

But so far I have not seen much success doing so without a TE or additional OL on the field. Which goes right into your point about it being predictable. It is predictable because they can't get any consistent running game going without the additional help at the LOS.

Now maybe this is something where rolling out someone with Harry's size would actually make a difference. But he is apparently not there yet. LaCosse or Watson can at least stand their ground at the LOS when blocking.

What it boils down to for me is that unless they can give teams a reason to take their running game serious, they will not gain any advantages in the passing game out of Pony.

You can have the 1v1 matchups as well on the inside by simply running Sanu, Edelman, White without a second RB on the field. Not everyone can be doubled.

 

[Kontradiction]

If he were a veteran who'd just screwed up, sure. But he's a rookie with just a couple of games under his belt. You let him figure it out on the practice field, with the coaching staff going over it with him. You don't do it as part of giving up another INT during the same game.

And, if they had thrown to him again, and he had blown another play, the same people crying about him not getting another opportunity would be calling for heads to roll because they threw the ball to a rookie who'd already screwed up and allowed an interception.

I don’t disagree that the team **** the bed at that position again this year. I’ve been hammering that nail for a while now. But they did and their options are extremely limited at the receiver position now. Hell, they’re so limited that they couldn’t even bench Harry for the rest of the game after that. He got around 10 snaps IIRC. This is where they are and they were already getting their asses kicked on the road. I don’t seem the harm in giving it a shot. Especially if you’re close to the 50 with this defense. The potential negatives don’t outweigh the potential positives enough for me to give the idea a thumbs down.

 

[PP2]

In terms of the Pony I like the formation but I am not sure what advantage we would gain right now from it. Teams will just play it with more DBs until the team can show that they can kill the defense's light personnel with runs out of it. But maybe you or @PP2 can elaborate a bit on what mismatches I am missing.

White is at the point where he is finally starting to get serious respect on 3rd downs when teams shift a legit DB to match up with him. That will most likely leave a LB on Burkhead, assuming Edelman gets doubled.

So let's say Brady has White motion and sees they are in man coverage, he can split White out wide to draw the DB out of play, then have Burkhead run the snow option, which puts him in an one on one with a LB in the flat. 9 times out of 10, that's a mismatch.

 

[luuked]

White is at the point where he is finally starting to get serious respect on 3rd downs when teams shift a legit DB to match up with him. That will most likely leave a LB on Burkhead, assuming Edelman gets doubled.

So let's say Brady has White motion and sees they are in man coverage, he can split White out wide to draw the DB out of play, then have Burkhead run the snow option, which puts him in an one on one with a LB in the flat. 9 times out of 10, that's a mismatch.

Why would you assume there would be a LB on Burkhead and not another DB ?

If the formation is 2 RBs and 3 WR as suggested above why not take the chance to play sub until the team shows you that they can actually run out of 20 ?