Texans @ Patriots, pregame analysis

[captain stone]

...I think the game will be highly competitive and expect the Texans to fight tooth and nail, but I’d be shocked if Houston wins by a large amount.

I'd be more shocked if the Patriots win by a large amount.

 

[goheels22002]

bigger issue will be keeping texans front 7 off of Brady

Except their CBs are a mess and Whitney Mercillous has a hamstring injury. The Texans safeties are elite.

 

[mgteich]

As an aside, I don't expect many defensive reps for Jackson and Crossen.

When we play nickel, I expect J Jones or Harmon to tbe he nickel. When we play dime, I expect both to be in. If there is an injury, I expect JMac to step in and get some reps.

The reason I'm thinking Harmon as an up safety is that it was his primary role in his first three seasons, while DMac was the deep man (and a great one). There was some switching off in 2015, and then more Harmon in the back and more DMac roaming in 2016. I think that was tied in with the Pats incorporating more pattern-matching in their coverage schemes.

If Chung is out, I really think Harmon moves up, JMac takes more of a deep role and DMac continues in his "roaming" role. But I'm hesitant to pigeonhole anybody, really, since the Pats coverage schemes are so fluid and varied.

And, there are some variables that could lead to more 3-CB nickel and less 3-safety nickel this season, even if everyone is healthy.

 

[goheels22002]

OK I will play.

Tell me about Sheltons history.

Danny Shelton was a stud pass rusher in the PAC 10, and had the misfortune to be drafted in the 1st round by the Browns. He's a DE/OLB for Bill Belichick who is the greatest LB coach in the history of the NFL. He can definitely flourish and grow into his role here.

He's faced tragedy as a young man. No reason to think he is not a mature 25-year-old ready to make a difference in New England.

Danny Shelton - Wikipedia

 

[goheels22002]

How is this team better in the secondary?

C'mon. This is a veteran secondary that has been to multiple Super Bowls. The safety group is excellent, and the CB group is top five with Gilmore, Rowe, J. McCourty and JC Jackson. It will be interesting to see is Crossen or Jonathan Jones is active against the Texans.

This is the best secondary top-to-bottom since 2014, may 2005.

 

[Uptown]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Danny Shelton was a stud pass rusher in the PAC 10, and had the misfortune to be drafted in the 1st round by the Browns. He's a DE/OLB for Bill Belichick who is the greatest LB coach in the history of the NFL. He can definitely flourish and grow into his role here.

He's faced tragedy as a young man. No reason to think he is not a mature 25-year-old ready to make a difference in New England.

Danny Shelton - Wikipedia

You forget to hit the sarcasm text, boss.

Wait you're serious??

 

[Ring 6]

The Texans safeties are elite.

Huh?

 

[Deus Irae]

C'mon. This is a veteran secondary that has been to multiple Super Bowls. The safety group is excellent, and the CB group is top five with Gilmore, Rowe, J. McCourty and JC Jackson. It will be interesting to see is Crossen or Jonathan Jones is active against the Texans.

This is the best secondary top-to-bottom since 2014, may 2005.

I'm not sure where you're getting that, but:

1. The top 3 safeties are the same, and they're all a year older (McCourty & Chung are now 31, which means they're likely on the down slope).
2. The ability of the new S4 is unknown, though it won't take much for it to be an upgrade over Richards.
3. The CB position takes a step back with Rowe replacing Butler. It might, or might not, be better at some spots below that, but Rowe got kicked upstairs, which generally weakens you at 2 slots.

Now, we can pretend that somehow automatically makes it better than last year, and we can lose our minds and pretend it makes it better than 2014. But those would both just be pretend.

 

[Joker]

so..no Cannon, Michel or Ebner? It'd be nice to be able to start a season with key players healthy, eh? James White is going to catch at least 10 swing passes. Don't like Cannon out versus THIS defense.

 

[Brick27]

so..no Cannon, Michel or Ebner? It'd be nice to be able to start a season with key players healthy, eh? James White is going to catch at least 10 swing passes. Don't like Cannon out versus THIS defense.

Last I saw they were all listed as questionable (along with Hollister). Where does it state they are definitively out for the game?

 

[goheels22002]

I'm not sure where you're getting that, but:

1. The top 3 safeties are the same, and they're all a year older (McCourty & Chung are now 31, which means they're likely on the down slope).
2. The ability of the new S4 is unknown, though it won't take much for it to be an upgrade over Richards.
3. The CB position takes a step back with Rowe replacing Butler. It might, or might not, be better at some spots below that, but Rowe got kicked upstairs, which generally weakens you at 2 slots.

Now, we can pretend that somehow automatically makes it better than last year, and we can lose our minds and pretend it makes it better than 2014. But those would both just be pretend.

You're arguing about the definition of "better." Maybe the secondary isn't better. But last year's secondary got the Patriots to the Super Bowl. I think the CBs are as good as last year. We'll see.

I think it will be interesting to see what BB does with Jason McCourty. I was surprised to see him play safety so much in pre-season. It signalled that BB felt he was a proven veteran #3 corner, and that he adds depth at safety. I was completely sold on Jackson, and think Crossen can become a top-flight CB.

 

[Joker]

Last I saw they were all listed as questionable (along with Hollister). Where does it state they are definitively out for the game?

going on past experience reading the Belichick tea leaves...questionable usually means not suiting up.I'm going to the game and would love to see Michel in action.

 

[jboston19]

so..no Cannon, Michel or Ebner? It'd be nice to be able to start a season with key players healthy, eh? James White is going to catch at least 10 swing passes. Don't like Cannon out versus THIS defense.

All four are questionable, but Cannon and ebner were full participants in practice and likely to play. We won't see Michel and Hollister to me is dubious.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

“By a large amount?”

I think the game will be highly competitive and expect the Texans to fight tooth and nail, but I’d be shocked if Houston wins by a large amount.

If the OL has some brainfarts and Brady gets stripsacked a couple of times I could see Houston winning by a large amount because I don't expect NE's offense to score much more than Houston's offense (mainly because of NE's defense) and because when you're behind by a couple of scores late in a game you have to make more chances which, if they don't pan out, will lead to more points by the opponent.

 

[Deus Irae]

You're arguing about the definition of "better." Maybe the secondary isn't better. But last year's secondary got the Patriots to the Super Bowl. I think the CBs are as good as last year. We'll see.

I think it will be interesting to see what BB does with Jason McCourty. I was surprised to see him play safety so much in pre-season. It signalled that BB felt he was a proven veteran #3 corner, and that he adds depth at safety. I was completely sold on Jackson, and think Crossen can become a top-flight CB.

TomPatriot made the initial claim (in the sense that he was the person to whom I responded regarding the secondary) about the quality of this year's defense. I'm asking simple questions, because I think people have jumped the gun.

1. How is the secondary better? Answer: It's probably not as good, though the last spot or two on the depth chart may be upgrades, and Gilmore could possibly be better in his second season in N.E.. Probably is not definitely, but the odds are that it will have regressed some
   
2. How is the linebacking better? Answer: The top 2 linebackers are the same, and the best one is coming off of yet another significant injury that caused him to miss a lot of the season. Beyond that, difference doesn't set in until LB4, unless the rookie beats out Roberts, because the top 3 LBs are still Hightower, Van Noy and Roberts. So the linebacking may, or may not, be better, and we won't know until at least a few games in
   
3. How is the D-line better? Answer: we don't know that it is, but we hope the new players end up as improvements over those who've moved on, and we figure that upgrading over 2017 Branch shouldn't take much

 

[supafly]

If the OL has some brainfarts and Brady gets stripsacked a couple of times I could see Houston winning by a large amount because I don't expect NE's offense to score much more than Houston's offense (mainly because of NE's defense) and because when you're behind by a couple of scores late in a game you have to make more chances which, if they don't pan out, will lead to more points by the opponent.

I don’t know what the poster’s definition of Houston winning “by a large amount” is, but I would be pretty surprised if the Pats lose by more than say, 10 points.

At any rate, we share the same concerns about the game and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest bit if the Texans catch us in preseason game 5 mode with a loss, but I think a lot of people would be shocked if they came here and dominated. That would apply to just about any opponent on the schedule.

 

[supafly]

Don't like Cannon out versus THIS defense.

I’m going to sacrifice a chicken in the hope that Cannon plays. Not a big fan of LaAdrian Waddle.

 

[supafly]

This is the best secondary top-to-bottom since 2014, may 2005.

I assume that you mean 2004. ‘05 was the year that Duane Starks was here.

Not exactly sure how you’re arriving at that conclusion with the swap of Butler/Rowe, but I obviously hope that you’re correct. Fingers crossed.

 

[luuked]

Potentially big if it is really true. Means we can run single high and have someone closer to the box to keep the screws on Watson if his knee allows him to be similarly mobile as in the past.