Texans @ Patriots, pregame analysis

[Oswlek]

We have no idea what Rivers will offer, he could be another Crable or Bequette

Shelton will improve Branch, simply can't be worse but he's coming off a fairly mediocre year so how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.

Clayborn I think is getting overrated by a lot of fans. He's useful but not a great pass rusher. Last 3 years, he has 45 games played. In one game he had 6 sacks. In the other 44 he had a total of 10.5. I think he ends up getting 4-5 sacks and a modest amount of hurries. Expecting a big pass rush presence from him is setting yourself up for disappontnent

Is the front 7 better? Can't be much worse than last year. Whether or not it's actually good remains to be seen though and plenty of reason for skepticism

All three of your examples could go wrong and the front seven would still be radically improved. It bears repeating that the DE position was only two deep last year, and one of those two was a rookie. All the other bodies (Lee, Harrison) were taken right off the scrap heap. Clayborn is somewhat overrated, but he's still a competent, edge setting DE who is a younger version of what Harrison brought. If Rivers busts, there are a few other guys who were better than Lee in camp, so you'd expect them to be better than Lee was last year.

As for Shelton, a mediocre year would be light years better than what Branch brought to the table.

Then, of course, is LB, where NE has two additional bodies who both project to be better than NE's #2 for most of last year. In other words, if HT goes down and Bentley flames out, NE is right back where they were in 2017. Perhaps even better if Van Noy's improvement is legitimate. And we can't overlook that Van Noy was injured himself at the end of 2017, and likely wasn't fully healthy at any point in the playoffs.

Improvement is all but guaranteed. And it takes far fewer assumptions to project substantial improvement than it does none.

EDIT: None of this is to suggest they'll be elite, it has more to do with how much room for growth there is over the front seven they trotted out last year.

 

[maineman209]

If Chung goes down, based on the situation I see the scenario of Grigsby and Jason combining to filling that vacancy.

I can see Grigsby eventually getting worked into a role as a second up-safety/"star". But if Chung is injured, I'd guess we'd see more of Harmon as the up-safety, since he's done it before in the big nickel, with JMac helping out deep.

I just don't see JMac playing up near the line and dealing with larger blockers, TEs and RBs. Seems to me that his strengths as a zone corner lend themselves more to keeping the play in front of him and providing double-coverage help over the top.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

All three of your examples could turn go wrong and the front seven would still be radically improved over last year. It bears repeating that the DE position was only two deep last year, and one of those two was a rookie. All the other bodies (Lee, Harrison) were taken right off the scrap heap. Clayborn is somewhat overrated, but he's still a competent, edge setting DE who is a younger version of what Harrison brought last year. If Rivers busts, there are a few other guys who were substantially better than Lee in camp, so you'd expect them to be better than Lee was last year.

As for Shelton, a mediocre year would be light years better than what Branch brought to the table.

Then, of course, is LB, where NE has two additional bodies over last year who both project to be better than NE's #2 for most of last year. In other words, if HT goes down and Bentley flames out, NE is right back where they were last year. Perhaps even better if Van Noy's improvement is legitimate. And we can't overlook that Van Noy was injured himself at the end of 2017, and likely wasn't fully healthy at any point in the playoffs.

Improvement is all but guaranteed. And it takes far fewer assumptions to project substantial improvement than it does none.

If high gets injured this LB corps will look very weak. A lot of people putting their hopes on bentley who wasn’t rated as high as other guys on the drafting board. I have said it all along that this team needs speed at LB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I can see Grigsby eventually getting worked into a role as a second up-safety/"star". But if Chung is injured, I'd guess we'd see more of Harmon as the up-safety, since he's done it before in the big nickel, with JMac helping out deep.

I just don't see JMac playing up near the line and dealing with larger blockers, TEs and RBs. Seems to me that his strengths as a zone corner lend themselves more to keeping the play in front of him and providing double-coverage help over the top.

I have great trepedation with Harmon as the up safety on a consistent basis as his value in the "GTFB" role is too high. I see the Wonder Twins playing up more than him.

As far as Jason goes, I don't disagree with your take. Because he's a bit of a bigger CB but no longer a boundary one, I think he would fair better in coverage in shorter routes and takle better than say Jordan Richards .

Either way, let's hope Chung stays on the field

 

[captain stone]

He plays elite $ for elite players he feels are worth it. Cannon, DMac, Mason, Brady, Gilmore, Mankins, VW, etc.

The difference here is he doesn't pay elite $ to everyone.

DMac is Not an elite player, and is Not worth elite money.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

He plays elite $ for elite players he feels are worth it. Cannon, DMc, Mason, Brady, Gilmore, Mankins, VW, etc

The difference here is he doesn't pay elite $ to everyone.

DMAC is 7th highest safety. Cannon is 10th highest right tackle. Mason is 11th highest guard. Brady is 16th highest. I think Gronk is the highest TE if he earns his incentives, 5th if he does not. Gilmore is the 9th highest. Clearly more than above average, but not sure these are Elite salaries.

 

[RobertWeathers]

DMac is Not an elite player, and is Not worth elite money.

We'll disagree on that point.

 

[maineman209]

I have great trepedation with Harmon as the up safety on a consistent basis as his value in the "GTFB" role is too high. I see the Wonder Twins playing up more than him.

As far as Jason goes, I don't disagree with your take. Because he's a bit of a bigger CB but no longer a boundary one, I think he would fair better in coverage in shorter routes and takle better than say Jordan Richards .

Either way, let's hope Chung stays on the field

The reason I'm thinking Harmon as an up safety is that it was his primary role in his first three seasons, while DMac was the deep man (and a great one). There was some switching off in 2015, and then more Harmon in the back and more DMac roaming in 2016. I think that was tied in with the Pats incorporating more pattern-matching in their coverage schemes.

If Chung is out, I really think Harmon moves up, JMac takes more of a deep role and DMac continues in his "roaming" role. But I'm hesitant to pigeonhole anybody, really, since the Pats coverage schemes are so fluid and varied.

And, there are some variables that could lead to more 3-CB nickel and less 3-safety nickel this season, even if everyone is healthy.

 

[RobertWeathers]

DMAC is 7th highest safety. Cannon is 10th highest right tackle. Mason is 11th highest guard. Brady is 16th highest. I think Gronk is the highest TE if he earns his incentives, 5th if he does not. Gilmore is the 9th highest. Clearly more than above average, but not sure these are Elite salaries.

We can go in a few different directions here. Time of signing. Amount of guaranteed $. What is elite from an on-the-field standpoint.

For example, at the time of his deal Cannon was the 4th highest paid RT. When Devin signed his deal he became the 2nd highest. Is that not "elite money"?

The narrative of "The Patriots do not pay big money to elite players" is ********. In fact, the team does pay elite players big money to players it feels are elite to them and what they are trying to accomplish.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

We can go in a few different directions here. Time of signing. Amount of guaranteed $. What is elite from an on-the-field standpoint.

For example, at the time of his deal Cannon was the 4th highest paid RT. When Devin signed his deal he became the 2nd highest. Is that not "elite money"?

The narrative of "The Patriots do not pay big money to elite players" is ********. In fact, the team does pay elite players big money to players it feels are elite to them and what they are trying to accomplish.

Agreed. But it still seems that the Patriots pay top dollar at positions that do not command the overall highest elite salaries.

Whether the Patriots pay "elite" salaries or not, they always spend their salary cap. The thought that the Patriots use up the whole salary cap, but somehow the salary cap is not related to cash payments, and the Patriots are cheap is what is ******** to me. I do not care about the draft picks success rate metrics, or if the Pats defensive ranking of yards allowed versus points allowed, or if someone's rookie binky is injured, but I would be concerned if the Pats did not spend to the Cap. My original comment was to observe that while spending to the Cap limit, the Pats have not paid elite money to anyone in their front seven (HT is about 10th highest so maybe that is elite?), but it appears to me that BB has chosen the pay more average to above average salaries and keep more depth. We will see if BB pays Trey Flowers or not - that will be interesting.

BTW I believe the Pats declined to pick up the 5th year first round draft pick option for Shelton, Brown and Dorsett.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agreed. But it still seems that the Patriots pay top dollar at positions that do not command the overall highest elite salaries.

I would need to think about that but if we look at the positions, their track record is mixed.

For example, for all the people *****ing how Tom is underpaid, he is #3 all-time in salary earned behind the greedy Manning boys.

You could say Cooks got elite WR money with LA but I think we would all agree paying him elite money would not have been wise.

They moved on from Chandler Jones as his guaranteed money is the same as Gilmore and Hightower combined

Whether the Patriots pay "elite" salaries or not, they always spend their salary cap. The thought that the Patriots use up the whole salary cap, but somehow the salary cap is not related to cash payments, and the Patriots are cheap is what is ******** to me. I do not care about the draft picks success rate metrics, or if the Pats defensive ranking of yards allowed versus points allowed, or if someone's rookie binky is injured, but I would be concerned if the Pats did not spend to the Cap. My original comment was to observe that while spending to the Cap limit, the Pats have not paid elite money to anyone in their front seven (HT is about 10th highest so maybe that is elite?), but it appears to me that BB has chosen the pay more average to above average salaries and keep more depth. We will see if BB pays Trey Flowers or not - that will be interesting.

I think I agree but are you saying the Pats are, or are not cheap?

Flowers will be interesting as he is not "elite" but valuable to this defense. Kinda like a Vrable-type.

BTW I believe the Pats declined to pick up the 5th year first round draft pick option for Shelton, Brown and Dorsett.

Because they want them to play hungry in 2018 and not set the market for their services as they may not be worth it. For all we know they tried to strike extensions with them and they backed off.

 

[Deus Irae]

Danny Shelton. It all begins and ends controlling the A gaps.

This defense will be better despite Malc Brown.

Shelton's been hit or miss to the point in his career, and it's been more miss than hit. Patriots fans are hoping he plays well, and I consider him the key to the run defense. But that's hope, not certainty.

The D will be better. At least the run D which was 31st and one of the worst in the NFL. I do not mean 30th or 29th, but respectable again.

You dont get Shelton for no reason. He came from the Browns 4th ranked run D in 2017.

That's the hope, not a certainty. There's a big difference between those two.

 

[Thelonious]

OK. So I'm sitting in a bar, and the Avion tequila rep is handing out free samples, so I'm not entirely responsible for what I say, but here goes:

1) McDaniels will work through the game to figure out how to move the ball with this oddball roster on offense. He figures it out, but just a leeetle bit too late to win.

2) The defense will be like the wind when you're riding a bike in central New York: a constant rubbery damper on Houston's offense, but the bend-but-don't-break thing doesn't quite work.

Houston 28-21.

 

[JMC00]

it's been more miss than hit.

not as a run defender

 

[maineman209]

Coupla interesting factoid comparisons related to Jones' cap hits:

Jones' 2018 cap hit = $15.5M.
The total 2018 cap hit for all nine players on the Pats DL is $16.8M (and that includes Grissom as a DE).

In 2017, Jones' provided the Cards with 17.0 sacks and 58 tackles *at a total cap cost of $10M.

In 2017, the combination of Guy, Brown, Flowers, Wise and Butler provided the Pats with 17.0 sacks and 212 tackles for a total cap cost of $6.53M.

In 2017, the Cards totaled 37 sacks (including Jones'17). The Pats totaled 42 sacks, plus another 11 in the playoffs.


*EDIT: Somehow, my copypasta from Notepad skipped an important part of the one factoid.

 

[AlexB]

Coupla interesting factoid comparisons related to Jones' cap hits:

Jones' 2018 cap hit = $15.5M.
The total 2018 cap hit for all nine players on the Pats DL is $16.8M (and that includes Grissom as a DE).

In 2017, Jones' provided the Cards with 17.0 sacks and 58 tackles.

In 2017, the combination of Guy, Brown, Flowers, Wise and Butler provided the Pats with 17.0 sacks and 212 tackles for a total cap cost of $6.53M.

In 2017, the Cards totaled 37 sacks (including Jones'17). The Pats totaled 42 sacks, plus another 11 in the playoffs.

We have 10 DL including Grissom. Who isn't being included?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Coupla interesting factoid comparisons related to Jones' cap hits:

Jones' 2018 cap hit = $15.5M.
The total 2018 cap hit for all nine players on the Pats DL is $16.8M (and that includes Grissom as a DE).

In 2017, Jones' provided the Cards with 17.0 sacks and 58 tackles.

In 2017, the combination of Guy, Brown, Flowers, Wise and Butler provided the Pats with 17.0 sacks and 212 tackles for a total cap cost of $6.53M.

In 2017, the Cards totaled 37 sacks (including Jones'17). The Pats totaled 42 sacks, plus another 11 in the playoffs.

Also to note the other 4 Cards on the D-line (Golden, Pierre, Peters and Nkemdiche) combined are $6.5m and had 6.5 sacks and 55 tackles last year.

Clearly the Cards put all their chips on Chandler Jones.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Deus Irae]

Coupla interesting factoid comparisons related to Jones' cap hits:

Jones' 2018 cap hit = $15.5M.
The total 2018 cap hit for all nine players on the Pats DL is $16.8M (and that includes Grissom as a DE).

In 2017, Jones' provided the Cards with 17.0 sacks and 58 tackles.

In 2017, the combination of Guy, Brown, Flowers, Wise and Butler provided the Pats with 17.0 sacks and 212 tackles for a total cap cost of $6.53M.

In 2017, the Cards totaled 37 sacks (including Jones'17). The Pats totaled 42 sacks, plus another 11 in the playoffs.

I'm not really sure that "One player was as productive as the Patriots entire DL" is where we want to take the discussion the week before the first game of the season.

 

[maineman209]

We have 10 DL including Grissom. Who isn't being included?

Correct.

I missed Davis at $480k. That would bring the Pats total up to $17.3M.