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The massive cost of trading Garappolo

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The assumption implicit in keeping JAG as insurance against a TFB injury for 2017 is that JAG can win the SB.
The last 2 SB seasons TFB made huge comebacks against the Ravens, The Seahawks and the Falcons to win.
I say that there is not another QB in the NFL good enough to engineer those comebacks, well maybe the Ravens one, but not the others.
So the point of keeping JAG so that we win the SB if Tom is injured is not a given as the Insurance argumenters and others imply.
Keeping JAG improves our odds if an injury but good QB performance is not elite.
Most importantly, is JAG robust enough to take the sacks TFB took vs Atlanta and keep on ticking???
 
Deus, Thanks. You and I know there are none.

That's why the "OMG, NO!" line fails, Az, unless your argument is that JAG = Steve Young, or at least Jeff Hostetler and, even then, it's purely guess work.
 
The assumption implicit in keeping JAG as insurance against a TFB injury for 2017 is that JAG can win the SB.
The last 2 SB seasons TFB made huge comebacks against the Ravens, The Seahawks and the Falcons to win.
I say that there is not another QB in the NFL good enough to engineer those comebacks, well maybe the Ravens one, but not the others.
So the point of keeping JAG so that we win the SB if Tom is injured is not a given as the Insurance argumenters and others imply.

Any argument which ends in "and JAG can win you the SB" should actually be a "Trade Brady after 2017" argument. I won't buy that argument, as of now, but it would be more appropriate.
 
How are you comparing what Brissett is or isn't, and what Garropolo is or isn't?

Your insurance and longevity argument assumes a great deal, as Jimmy was knocked out of play in less than 2 games after working as a backup for how many years? Brissett, as a boot rookie, played the same number of games and stayed on the field with an injury when the Pats needed him that placed him on IR after Brady's return. If Jimmy is good for 1.5 of every 4 games, that is little insurance of anything. We have no real idea of his durability, so he is a huge question mark.

As for Brissett, some major personalities, like Parcells, think the world of his play, and Parcells for all his faults is not awful in judging talent. With an actual year with the playbook and a second preseason, are you betting against him? How long did Brady have before he stepped in as starter?

Jimmy is either fool's gold, in which case trading him is a plus for the Pats, or he is the second coming of Tom Brady, which will be realized potentially years down the road and/or by forcing Brady out in deference to this career backup. If Jimmy is as good as you believe him to be, then the Pats will have to pay him handsomely to keep him around until Brady's career expires. Absent Brady's arms and legs falling off next year, I am not sure this Armageddon scenario has legs.

The Pats have been and always will be next man up. Belichick follows a cost-benefit assessment for every paid player on the roster. If he can get a crop of future starters for a player likely walking one year later, then I see that as smart business and adios Jimmy. If there is no such opportunity, then Jimmy stays and earns a comp pick, provided the Pats don't view him as the cost-effective option before free agency.

This notion the Pats cannot live without some Jimmy seems to overlook the reality that for all but 1.5 games, they have done just that. Many of the so called heir apparents have passed into the light over the years (Cassel, Hoyer, Mallett, etc.), and the Patriots war machine has somehow thundered on in their absence. Trying to exalt JAG's departure to a calamity assumes far more than the evidence supports.
 
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Well if the Patriots think JG is the next franchise QB or has the ability too, and they trade him away for a couple draft picks. And they hold on to the 40 year old QB, this is not usually a smart decision. Of course this is the GOAT QB and maybe he will play 3-5 more years at a high level.

"IF" and thats a big IF the Patriots think JG is top shelf QB, I think they hold on to him for 2017. They don't grow on tree's.

I know he is blowing up right now, the media is all over this. Just don't be surprised if the Patriots hold on to him.

How many 40+ year old QB's have won a Super Bowl?

This isn't about the back up QB position for 2017 its about the future of the Patriots organization long term.

With all that said TB is a different and special case, and I think someone will offer the Pats an offer they can't refuse for JG.


Edit: Manning was the oldest to win a Super Bowl title at 39..and we all know that he didn't win the Super Bowl, he was carried by the Bronco's defense mainly.
 
I am talking about 2017 INJURY as in 2008. Surely you don't want to chase Lombardi #6 with only Brisett behind Brady. You migh,t but BBB would never consent to do it. He builds DEPTH on his clubs in so far as he can.

Not at all. This discusses the short term problem of losing him for the season due to injury as in 2008. It is concerned with the pursuit of Lombardi #6 in 2017 and the changes and costs you mustmake preparing for that eventuality in 2017.

I say that on a realsitic basis replacing him with a one year insurance policy costs as much or more than the illusory benefits of the draft haul of trading him.






You want to trade a way a player that may be in that class. Why would you not want to replace him with an equivalent? If you don't want to do that, than simply don't trade him. Let 2018 take care of itself.
That makes no sense. How does 2018 take care of itself? We lose the player and get nothing?

A backup QB that someone would give you a 1 for is a gift. I'll take that gift and draft a player that can be a stud.
 
How many 40+ year old QB's...

Any question of that sort has been rendered all but useless by the words "But this is Tom Brady". How many QBs have won 5 SBs? How many QBs have won 2 SBs in 3 years on two separate occasions? Etc...
 
What happens if Brady at 41, 2 years time.. just starts to slip. And then we see JG rise to a top 5 QB in the league the year after we trade him.

2 years is a long time in the NFL, I just hope Brady holds up for awhile if we trade away a potential franchise QB.

A lot of you will be killing the Pats for dealing JG away.

I would probably trade JG for a 1st and more but just sayin.. its not the easiest decision imo. Brady is going to be 40 years old this coming season.




JAcoby Brisett will be a better NFL qb than Jimmy G who will be an excellent QB.

The time to get value for Jimmy G is NOW.
 
I think it's foolish to say you'd never trade him, or you absolutely have to trade him.

If you were offered the #1 pick and another #1 next year and a few more picks, of course you'd do that. Heck, BB might trade his own son for that. At the same time, you're not going to give him up for a 7th round pick just for the sake of getting "something" for him.

So to argue we have to keep him or we have to trade him is the wrong way to look at it. It's more about assessing what the value is, what the potential price tag would be. And if we get that or more, then you do it. If you don't, you don't.

So then we're really just trying to see what it might take. He obviously has value as a backup (measured by the difference between Jimmy and Jacoby), there's a chance Brady's play drops off and he's insurance for that, he'll potentially net us a 3rd round comp pick, so you probably don't trade him for the Bears 2nd like I've heard. Why bother when you can hold him for a year and get a pick a round later a year after?

But if it's a top 5 pick, or a 1st and 4th, you really have to think about it. Especially if you have faith in Brissett.

I don't know where the line exactly is to keep him, and where the line exactly is to trade him, but those lines must exist. There are scenarios he's traded, and scenarios he stays. It would be foolish to pick one position or the other and stand by it no matter what.
 
The Massive Cost of trading Garrapolo Defense (PartIV)

I broke this treatise up inyot sections to address the Costs, short term and long term. And Long term defining the probable long term alternatively Offensively and Defensively. I now realize that there is a hidden assumption in this treatise.

I believe it very hard to find a franchise type QB/ Period And that it is extremely unlikely if you do manage to do it, that the new QBs talents will be similar to Brady's style for which the Team has been tailored and built over the years. So to optimize for a Superbowl winning team, not justa winner, it will need to be restyled, rebuilt, and or changed to take the maximum benefit of the new QBs style and abilities.

But BB may, just may, have done exactly that improbable duo. First, He has found another potential franchise QB; and second the new ones style is a near duplicate of Brady's style of play. So much so that BB himself said without an identifying uniform, they are hard to identify apart.

The Pats Defense is optimized for a team whose Offense consumes lots of the clock, allowing them to rest. It is deep to allow restful rotation and cover for injuries. It is also assumes a prolific scoring Offense that allows the Defense to be able to play conservatively, and not need or require qick game changing plays. It does not need quick three and out, as as much as that would be desired. It can afford to absorb plays by the opposition Offense, and require them to combine many successful plays in front of them, in long marches to score. The Defense would like to have superdefender DLss (expensive) but can do with many good, but not necessarily great players, and more often than not with lots of chances, they will make a play and prevent scoring. Having lots of good but not just a few very expensive DL and DEs aids Belichicks plan for good depth and rotation/ More over it provides the affordable way to do that.

If you want to see a team optimized for the deep throwing QB, look at the Giants with Eli and the Nascar DL in 2007. But it is hard tot keep the Divas happy and healthy. And at the top of their game. Such Teams win big and lose big. Some years they are Superbowl winning clubs, other years they have losing records. The Patriots Defense does not need much change except for the need for at least two very expensive Pass rushers like Chandler Jones and maybe a LB like Jamie Collins, Since you can't afford too many such players, plan on allowing the second and thirds string Lbs and secondary to walk. You would replace them annually with cheap and not very good UDFAs. Cross your fingers and hope the Superstars are injury free, too.

I don't think you would have a team that wins every year, Do You? How long would it take to assemble the rebuilt/retailored team. You only need nearly a dozen new starters, among which are 5 or 6 superstars. Half a decade? A full decade ? Never? Gee, that high draft pick for Garrapolo sure was worthwhile...





Where is this coming from? Vollmer was the RT1 at the start.

Vollmer - Mauler
Mason - Mauler

Really, the weak spot, in terms of running, is at center, and that's a case of the previous guy losing his position.

Mason, Andrews are not maulers, Mason can pull extremely well, but drive blocking is not his forte. Thuney is only an average Guard in the run game. He is a too small LOT, and excels as a pass blocking RG. Both Volmer and Solder are big blockers but Vollmer may be done. Canon is just an average RT in the run game. Jackson is the drive blocking Guard if he ever gets healthy.
 
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What's the massive cost of having Garoppolo insurance?

Brady has been the starter for 16 seasons and lost most of 2008 due to one injury, and 0.5 games in 2001 due to another injury (AFC title game).

Jimmy Garoppolo was the starter for not even 6 quarters, and missed 2.5 games with an injury.

What type of insurance policy is that for Brady? We have to waste a roster spot on a 3rd QB.



That is the exact question! \You say Brady has not been lost except for 1 out of 16 seasons. So you don' t need insurance. I am more cautious, and I'd say he is overdue for a trauma, since most QBs miss a few games a season on average.

Then you say we have FAs. When have we not had FAs? Has BB made preparations? Yes, have you seen Chandler Jones or Jamie Collins in the locker room ? Did we miss them in the Playoffs? Who or where are the unaffordable FAs? Hint there are none. The Pats have ONLY 60 million dollars available to resign them.

Every single FA can be resigned for half that CAP space. Then you say we need players to fill holes. What glaring holes are there on this Superbowl winning club? I don't see them. I see great and overflowing depth. Then you say we need the draft picks Garrapolo would bring. Why? What will you use then on?

BB will likely trade picks into next season. There are virtually no holes and there is no room for lots of newcomers.
 
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I usually agree with you Ken, but here I disagree. Brady will have to be carried out. He will never agree he can't cut it still, when he loses it. This particular question debates what to do in 2017. If he goes out for the season. Don't say it can't happen. It did happen in 2008. That is why you purchase insurance...
Well, AZ that's why we have message boards so we can disagree. The problem I see is that, while it would be a very nice LUXURY to have JG as the back up in case of any injury to Brady, it's a luxury fate has made impossible to afford.

IF, JG wasn't given the opportunity to show his skills to the rest of the league, and IF the draft class of QB's was not so bad, and IF there weren't so many teams who desperately need QB's, JG's trade value wouldn't have been high enough to make it a necessity to trade him.

But all that DID happen and the fact of the matter is, if BB is offered a top 15 pick plus extras, he would HAVE to come to the conclusion that it would be in the best interests of the team to make that trade.

That being said, I doubt BB will be banging the phones to make a deal happen, but rather will sit back wait for someone to make an offer that he just cant refuse. And if that offer isn't good enough, I think he would be comfortable keeping him another year.
 
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And let's say that the cost for re optimizing the roster more in favor of a guy like Jacoby Brissett is large, would disrupt the roster, etc, etc.

Why can't we be getting ready for that over time, as a natural part of simpyl turning the roster over year by year? you're treating the roster math as if we have to do all the things, right away. that's simply not how football works. yes we would have to restructure the offense to get the most possible out of Jacoby Brissett but i see no reason we couldn't have a bunch of years like 09-13 while BB did that.

We don't have to be at our absolute peak at all times to make noise, get to the playoffs and be in with a chance. This would be a situation where yes, some upheaval would be foreordained, but it could simply be handled by the ordinary process of attrition and replacement, and BB's ability to improvise would allow the team to be highly productive even before the process was complete.

EDIT: Oh, and we might find that some of our "not suited" guys actually turn out to be far better suited to support a running QB than we ever thought they were.
 
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How good is Jimmy G? I thought in the Arizona game, they put him in a position to not lose. Lots of short passes and he did well. Against Miami, I thought he was awesome -- quick release, accuracy, unstoppable. If that's the Jimmy G we're talking about I want to keep him as long as possible.

Then I think of the Jimmy G who is not a really big guy and who got hurt after only a game and half game. Is that what he would be? If so, we should strike while the iron is hot.

The question is what do the Patriots think of Jimmy G? And, what do they think of Brissett?
 
Bekichick said Jimmy was built and worked out like a linebacker
 
I'm sorry, Az, but your arguments continue to illustrate how confused your argument is.

None of the backup QBs were ever starters so BB did not have to reshape the team, except for Cassel.

You made the claim that JB as #2 requires a restructure of the roster to fit his skill set. Introducing prior back-up QBs with even more disparate playing styles who were equally one injury away from starting that didn't require such a dramatic response proves that claim invalid.

Starting experience may give confidence in someone's ability to be an adequate fill-in, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with the argument at hand. This once again shows that your assumptions aren't even clear in your own head.

To help you formulate a cogent argument, please allow me to ask some direct questions.

What team are you proposing JG plays for in 2019?
What team are you proposing Brady plays for in 2019?
If those teams are the same, what are the contractual terms?
Why would Jimmy choose to play for a team that he may not start for until after 30?
 
People who say to keep Garappolo don't play the scenario out properly.

Keep Him - You control him for 1 year. At end of 1 year, you either franchise him ($20MM), sign him long term (multiple years at probably $20MM each minimum) or lose him for a 3rd pick. There are no other viable options. Of course, you can extend him for a lot of money but keep him as back up but that has a lot of downside (cap, QB controversy...). So you are left with:

1. You only keep him beyond next year if a) Brady regresses and you cut him, b) Brady gets injured and is done or c) you trade Brady.
2. A reasonable analysis, based on everything we have seen from Brady, is that Brady will play for a few more years, let's say 2-4 years and be effective. So, you would basically be making the decision to keep him based on the off-chance Brady gets a long term injury (only happened once) or Brady regresses - no evidence to suggest that.

You're making a massive assumption like everyone does when it comes to compensatory picks. That the Pats won't have any offsetting signings.. And it only takes ONE signing in that upper category for the Pats to lose that pick..

Not to mention that, by franchising him, you are tying the hands of your team prior to trading him and there is no guarantee you get his worth. Especially since 2018 is expected to have a plethora of college QBs coming out..
 
The Massive Cost Offensively. (Part III)

Belichick has said without a uniform number, it is hard to distinguish between Brady and Polo He meant on style of play and on techniques. It is not difficult to see the differences between Brady and Brissetts style, though.

Constructing a Superbowl club is different than assembling a winning team. You have to optimize to take advantage of every thing your Team can do; and do it even better.

In summary, Brady's game has always been as a pocket mobile QB, whose forte is short to intermediate throws and very accurate to allow YAC. Being very accurate, he can throw a catchable ball with great velocity, to minimize interceptions and incompletions. Tied to this is the ability to read and anticipate a Defense. Brady also has the ability to release very quickly and compactly, on short drops, before being sacked.

He is not particularly a long ball thrower and his game is not as a practitioner of power running games.

That means the Team, over many drafts, is optimized to provide the best alternatives for such a talent. The Offensive line is heavily oriented to being a pass blocking line, at the sacrifice of power run blocking. The receivers are selected for their quickness, and route running to get open, and not particularly for size and deep speed. RBs who can catch and run a route, are usually preferred over power backs. None of this is absolute. Moss was a great deep reciever and still was at the tail end of his career when the Patriots acquired his services. Antowain and Le Garette are also antithetical to the norm of RBs who have succeeded here, like Kevin Faulk and now White.

That summary accurately describes Garappolo talents too. Brady has a better head from long experience reading Defenses, and Polo's release may be even superior to how great Brady's release is. That is saying something. It is Marino like.

The Talents of Brisette are not in that direction. He is a semi-accurate, long ball thrower, with mild accuracy in the short and intermediate game. His release is long, slow, and ponderous. Not that it hurts in the long deep game, but not conducive to the dink and dunk games of Brady and Garrapolo, and for which talents the receivers were acquired. I doubt you could consistently move the ball downfield as Brady does, little bits at a time and using the short accurate throw as a substitute for a running game, with a Jacoby. Brisette while talented, is just not that kind of QB.

Lets look at franchise QBs that win, but do it as Brisette type might do. Eli Manning and Ben Rothlesberger, I will use as examples. They throw long and complete deep quick strike scores. Their long game is augmented by superior RBs, and very talented deep receivers. Both types of skill players are very expensive to acquire and keep. Their Offensive lines are selected to benefit the power run, at the cost of pass blocking ability. Deep pass protection comes with the QBs deep drop and mobility and scrambling ability to buy time.

Let us suppose that the Pats acquired such a franchise type deep passing QB by trade or draft or development. You would need the following changes: Thuney, Cannon and Andrews would need replacement, possibly Mason too. They are not power run blockers to build a running game around. Goodbye to Amendola, Edelman, maybe Mitchell. Short, small, quick, marginally speedy WRs dont cut it any longer. Floyd fits, and no one else in the WRs, and his deep talent is marginal as a quick-strike weapon.

The TEs are fine. Blount stays, and so does Lewis, White's talent is wasted, so he probably goes too, and you need some more big RBs, trying to find a Laveon Bell. I am really impressed with the draft pick haul for Garrapolo that you got Now.

So to optimize the Offense for such a Super Bowl quality team, not just a plus .500 club, you would ONLY need to replace 8-9 Patriot starters!!!!

There is a Massive Cost to trading Garrapolo that you now begin to see. And we have not yet reviewed the Defense...

I have a couple major disagrements with your analysis. The first and foremost is that mason is not a road grading mauler. He got drafted from georgia, an offense that ran the ball 95% of the time and they ran behind him 80% of those. I have never been as excited about a guard as I was when they drafted shaq. Dude serves more pancakes then ihop! It's his pass blocking that was a huge question Mark and he has gotten better at it. He plays strong nasty and mauls people pulling or drive blocking.

Yes the brisket has a totally different skill set then Brady or Grop and that makes his drafting curious. However, the idea that he can't be QB2 in 2017 because of that skill set is crap, because he did it in 2016. Now granted that game against Houston was more about the running game, taking advantage of turnovers, and the defense playing lights out but Briskit played solid mistake free ball with that team tailor made for Brady. My question for any back up QB is if the starter goes down for 4 games can they at least go 2-2? I believe he can seeing as he won the one game he was healthy in. Now long term can he take over as the starter in 3 years for Brady...idk but I am cautiously optimistic to see where he will be he has all the intangibles to be a good leader and the work ethic to improve his anticipation (best way to combat long wound up release) and ability to read defenses.

Trading Grop this year does weaken the 2017 squad no question but the return is making the 2018-2021 squads better with a solid blue chip top 15 prospect. If I was the GM I would start the bidding at a top 15 pick otherwise weakening my roster is not worth it and I would happily hold on to the best back up in the league. That said there is far too much smoke for there not to be fire when it comes to desperate teams being desperate for a QB. I have full faith in Brady still being Brady for at a Minimum 2017 which means I want to make the team around him as strong as possible. I trade Grop no questions asked if the deal I think is going to come happens.
 
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