This is why the Patriots won't trade Jimmy G in 2017

[stinkypete]

I do not think that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the QB of the future for the Patriots, nor will Jacoby Brissett. The QB of the future is not on this team, and is probably not in the NFL yet.

Tom Brady wants to play for 5 more years. Many argue that this is not possible, that father time will step in and that there will be a steep drop in production. To this, I ask why? People will argue the precedent set by Warren Moon, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Brady it not a logical successor to this precedent. Moon was a scrambler, and scrambling QBs take more and harder hits than pocket passers. Favre was questionable with injury nearly every week from 2002 until his retirement. Manning sustained two injuries that severely compromised him physically. Brady, at age 39, is at peak health.

What physical skill is going to erode from Brady's arsenal? It's certainly not his blazing speed. He's never had a rocket arm. Brady's best attributes are in his mind, not his body. When that arm strength erodes, he will still be able to game manage his way into the playoffs. The current offense is set up to support and mask a potentially declining QB. Brady is here to stay.

In light of this, the logical argument is that the Patriots should trade Garoppolo because there is no way you can pay 2 QBs franchise money. This is true. But, if you are going to move a franchise QB, you better get enough capitol to draft a franchise QB in return. Cleveland's 12th pick is not going to get the job done, and no number of 2nd rounders is going to change that. This year's 12th pick is a draft value black hole. Nobody is going to give up a 2018 1st to move up to take Mitchel Trubisky, and the players that will be available at #12 (Watson, Ramzyk, McCaffrey) are late 1st round types. Belichick has no interest in a 2017 pick unless it is pick #1.

Now, in 2018, things may change. The market will be there, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Arizona and the NY Giants will all be looking for future starters. Houston, San Fran, Cleveland and the Jets may still be looking for their franchise QB. A trade for a 1st round pick in 2018 is not guaranteed to produce higher value than it does in 2017, but it is likely to. Belichick will be smart to keep Garoppolo around as the league's best backup in 2017, franchise him, then trade him for a package of picks in 2018. Those picks will be packaged to draft the future.

 

[farn]

Nobody knows. I'm in the "trade him while he's hot" camp. I'm happy w #12. It's an awesome pick. High enough to net you a good player, enticing enough to trade down if you prefer.

The counter to your argument is : BB loves him some draft picks and not picking before the 3rd round is something he's never faced. Something's up.

Again - back to thesis statement - nobody knows. How do you know BB isn't interested in anything but #1 ?

 

[BelichickFan]

I think they're franchising him next season so they'll have him through Brady age 41. Who knows what will have happened after two seasons. Brady could actually decline. He could retire. He could sustain a bad injury.

Franchise is expensive ? Yep. But if the decision point is now to either trade him or keep him and Franchise him that's really like a 2 year, $26M contract (about $1M this year, $25M next year).

$13M a year. Expensive for a backup QB but doable. It fixes the single point failure this year if Brady gets hurt and provides protection for two years. In fact, although Brady has had just the one injury you may be able to make the claim that JG has a better chance of helping us win the SB this year than the #12 pick. Injuries happen and Brady could easily (sorry) take the wrong hit again and tear his ACL. The probability of that could well be the same or higher as a rookie having a significant impact.

Personally I would trade him, draft another QB in round 3 or so, let the draftee and Brissett compete for the backup job, maybe we get lucky with one. But I can absolutely see keeping JG for about 2/$26M and seeing where we are after Brady plays QB at age 40 & 41.

One other thing, that gets us through the 2018 season but we would still control things heading into 2019. We could Franchise him a second time, solely to control and trade him. Or even to keep him in Brady surprises and announces 2019 will be his last year.

 

[signbabybrady]

If you want a shot at a top ten pick in 2018 your best chance is to trade him to a crappy team now for next year's one.

If you wait til next year and there are better QBs in the Top ten why would a team trade that to you for Jimmy?

 

[Ring 6]

I do not think that Jimmy Garoppolo will be the QB of the future for the Patriots, nor will Jacoby Brissett. The QB of the future is not on this team, and is probably not in the NFL yet.

Tom Brady wants to play for 5 more years. Many argue that this is not possible, that father time will step in and that there will be a steep drop in production. To this, I ask why? People will argue the precedent set by Warren Moon, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Brady it not a logical successor to this precedent. Moon was a scrambler, and scrambling QBs take more and harder hits than pocket passers. Favre was questionable with injury nearly every week from 2002 until his retirement. Manning sustained two injuries that severely compromised him physically. Brady, at age 39, is at peak health.

What physical skill is going to erode from Brady's arsenal? It's certainly not his blazing speed. He's never had a rocket arm. Brady's best attributes are in his mind, not his body. When that arm strength erodes, he will still be able to game manage his way into the playoffs. The current offense is set up to support and mask a potentially declining QB. Brady is here to stay.

In light of this, the logical argument is that the Patriots should trade Garoppolo because there is no way you can pay 2 QBs franchise money. This is true. But, if you are going to move a franchise QB, you better get enough capitol to draft a franchise QB in return. Cleveland's 12th pick is not going to get the job done, and no number of 2nd rounders is going to change that. This year's 12th pick is a draft value black hole. Nobody is going to give up a 2018 1st to move up to take Mitchel Trubisky, and the players that will be available at #12 (Watson, Ramzyk, McCaffrey) are late 1st round types. Belichick has no interest in a 2017 pick unless it is pick #1.

Now, in 2018, things may change. The market will be there, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Arizona and the NY Giants will all be looking for future starters. Houston, San Fran, Cleveland and the Jets may still be looking for their franchise QB. A trade for a 1st round pick in 2018 is not guaranteed to produce higher value than it does in 2017, but it is likely to. Belichick will be smart to keep Garoppolo around as the league's best backup in 2017, franchise him, then trade him for a package of picks in 2018. Those picks will be packaged to draft the future.

I see no possible way that you could get more for garapollo next year than his year. The patriots will be over a barrel. They can't keep a backup at 24 million. I don't think any team in their right mind would trade for him without an agreement for a long term deal in place. But why would Jimmy agree to that? He can refuse and end up a free agent where he can write his own deal. Not to mention if I'm jimmy I do not want my new team to give up a ton to get me when I can just play hardball, get released and let my future team keep its picks.

We may literally get nothing at all for him if we do not trade him this year.

As to the other side if your argument it's silly to say you won't trade a player because you think other teams should be willing to offer more. The market is what it is. The decision isn't what is offered vs what you hoped for. It's what is offered vs one year of service as a backup QB and potentially getting nothing at all.

 

[Ring 6]

If you want a shot at a top ten pick in 2018 your best chance is to trade him to a crappy team now for next year's one.

If you wait til next year and there are better QBs in the Top ten why would a team trade that to you for Jimmy?

And he may be untradable in 2018

 

[BelichickFan]

If you want a shot at a top ten pick in 2018 your best chance is to trade him to a crappy team now for next year's one.

If you wait til next year and there are better QBs in the Top ten why would a team trade that to you for Jimmy?

If it were about maximizing his trade value we'd be trading him this year. I don't think it is, I think it's about keeping JG as long as possible because we have a 40 year old QB and who knows what happens from here. Unless someone blows us away, of course.

 

[Ring 6]

I think they're franchising him next season so they'll have him through Brady age 41. Who knows what will have happened after two seasons. Brady could actually decline. He could retire. He could sustain a bad injury.

Franchise is expensive ? Yep. But if the decision point is now to either trade him or keep him and Franchise him that's really like a 2 year, $26M contract (about $1M this year, $25M next year).

$13M a year. Expensive for a backup QB but doable. It fixes the single point failure this year if Brady gets hurt and provides protection for two years. In fact, although Brady has had just the one injury you may be able to make the claim that JG has a better chance of helping us win the SB this year than the #12 pick. Injuries happen and Brady could easily (sorry) take the wrong hit again and tear his ACL. The probability of that could well be the same or higher as a rookie having a significant impact.

Personally I would trade him, draft another QB in round 3 or so, let the draftee and Brissett compete for the backup job, maybe we get lucky with one. But I can absolutely see keeping JG for about 2/$26M and seeing where we are after Brady plays QB at age 40 & 41.

One other thing, that gets us through the 2018 season but we would still control things heading into 2019. We could Franchise him a second time, solely to control and trade him. Or even to keep him in Brady surprises and announces 2019 will be his last year.

You are making a big leap that jimmy g could step in and win the SB. He would not have last year.
We need to improve the team around Brady not spend 15% of the cap in a guy who won't play.
Why would he sign the tag any way.
I'm sure he would force a trade in that case and we would get much less than what we could get today.

 

[BelichickFan]

You are making a big leap that jimmy g could step in and dim the SB.

He's got a better chance than probably any other backup in the league. I do think we could win it with him, way more likely than with Brissett.

 

[Uptown]

Sam Darnold

 

[Ring 6]

He's got a better chance than probably any other backup in the league. I do think we could win it with him, way more likely than with Brissett.

So you are saying he is the best backup in the NFL. that is a very long way from capable of winning a super bowl.

 

[aluminum seats]

It's about time we had a thread on this.

 

[BelichickFan]

You are making a big leap that jimmy g could step in and win the SB. He would not have last year.
We need to improve the team around Brady not spend 15% of the cap in a guy who won't play.
Why would he sign the tag any way.
I'm sure he would force a trade in that case and we would get much less than what we could get today.

LMAO, why would he sign? $25M reasons. Sure he'd prefer to get it and play but he's taking the $25M.

And, yes, I do think JG could win a Super Bowl with Gronk, Cooks and Edelman.

 

[ivanvamp]

If you want a shot at a top ten pick in 2018 your best chance is to trade him to a crappy team now for next year's one.

If you wait til next year and there are better QBs in the Top ten why would a team trade that to you for Jimmy?

I think this is not a bad idea. Trade him for a 2nd now and a 1st next year. Something like that. Cleveland would still suck and their 1st rounder next year will still be really good. Add in the 2nd rounder now and the Pats could make some hay.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Is this thread going to be any different or offer any new insights from these other ones?

The Patriots Should Not Trade Jimmy Garoppolo This Offseason

Here's the most compelling reason NOT to trade Jimmy G. for high picks

Would you trade Jimmy G, and Gronk.. for entire Bowns draft?

Poll: Let's say the trade for Jimmy is simple:

To replenish draft picks: trade Jimmy and/or Butler?

Pats not trading Garoppolo - Schefter

Garoppolo Trade Talks to Heat Up This Week

Some new insight to JG trade by LaCanfora

Hypothetical trade

At this point, there are reasons to keep him, and reasons to trade him, and we've exhausted all of the options.

Some people want to keep Jimmy no matter what. Some people want to trade Jimmy no matter what. Some people are in between. Nobody knows what the right thing to do is. But it's also clear from reading most of these threads, nobody is going to change their mind either.

I'm in the Keep Jimmy camp, and I want to ****ing trade him just to end the million new threads on this same subject. That's the most compelling argument for trading Jimmy at this point, to end this ****ing madness.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If you take Schefter's report at face value, it explains everything, and it is as follows: The Patriots see the 2017 season as a critical stage of evaluation for Brady and Garopollo. Brady does not have a historic precedent. And beyond that, Garopollo is more valuable as an insurance policy (this season, or beyond that if necessary) should Brady decline or suffer an injury. The QB position is so important that they would like to hold course on this, although they would trade Garopollo in 2017 if someone blew them away with a huge offer.

You better believe they will be taking this time to hire every aging/nutrition expert in the world who can help them. They will be closely monitoring Garoppollo's leadership skills and durability.

I'm sure they are leaning in some direction, but they want this extra year to make a big decision that will determine the franchise's success for multiple years after 2017. It makes sense.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

If you take Schefter's report at face value, it explain everything, and it is as follows: The Patriots see the 2017 season as a critical stage of evaluation for Brady and Garopollo. Brady does not have a historic precedent. And beyond that, Garopollo is more valuable as an insurance policy (this season, or beyond that if necessary) should Brady decline or suffer an injury. The QB position is so important that they would like to hold course on this, although they would trade Garopollo in 2017 if someone blew them away with a huge offer.

You better believe they will be taking this time to hire every aging/nutrition expert in the world who can help them. They will be closely monitoring Garoppollo's leadership skills and durability.

I'm sure they are leaning in some direction, but they want this extra year to make a big decision that will determine the franchise's success for multiple years after 2017. It makes sense.

I think you may have forgotten watching Brisset to see if there is a Second year uptick. Can Brisset put it together? The Patriots gave Brisset a lot of attention in 2016, so I think they want 1 more year to watch all three, Brady at 40, Jimmy G, and Brisset.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think they're franchising him next season so they'll have him through Brady age 41. Who knows what will have happened after two seasons. Brady could actually decline. He could retire. He could sustain a bad injury.

The bottom line is this.

Plan A- In 2017, if TB12 goes on IR, Jimmy still gives this team a legitimate and realistic shot to compete for a SB.

Plan B- If Jimmy is gone, in 2017 if TB12 goes on IR the team does not have a less-than legitimate shot competing for a SB.

Trading Jimmy G for a bevy of picks for Plan B increases risk.

Keeping Jimmy G in 2017 is the safe play.

 

[Tony2046]

He's got a better chance than probably any other backup in the league. I do think we could win it with him, way more likely than with Brissett.

Then why keep Brissette on the roster last year? I think it's because they anticipated the possibility of trading JG and wanted Brissett to get an accelerated learning curve or at least evaluate his potential to decide whether or not to trade JG. They're thinking about trading him and I think they do.

 

[Tony2046]

The bottom line is this.

Plan A- In 2017, if TB12 goes on IR, Jimmy still gives this team a legitimate and realistic shot to compete for a SB.

Plan B- If Jimmy is gone, in 2017 if TB12 goes on IR the team does not have a less-than legitimate shot competing for a SB.

Trading Jimmy G for a bevy of picks for Plan B increases risk.

Keeping Jimmy G in 2017 is the safe play.

That ignores any growth in Brissett's play and what the team does with the added picks.