If the Pats defense can play as well as they did the past four games, I don't see the Broncos scoring a whole lot. Their season median is 17.5 points per game, and 14.5 for the past four games, including the garbage-time score against Philly after the Foles fumble. Their kicker is 13 for 18 on the season, with all five misses coming on his home field (though he's 5 for five the past two weeks on the road).
And there's a possibility that the Pats D can get a score of their own - the Broncos have turned the ball over 13 times in the past four games.
So, the Pat offense shouldn't need to score very much. Good thing, too, with Hogan almost certainly OUT. At 46.5, I'd take the under.
The Denver defense still has a lot of great individual playmakers. However, they're working for a new defensive coaching staff and HC.
The new DC, Joe Woods, was a DB coach for 13 years - 2 with Tampa, 8 with Minny, 1 with Oakland (2014) and the past two season with Denver before being promoted this year.
Vance Joseph was also a DB coach - for 11 years: 6 with SF, 3 with HOU, 2 with Cinci - before being hired as DC by the Fins just last season, and then as HC for the Broncos this season.
FWIW, the Pats had hung 31 points on Joseph's defense by the middle of the 3rd quarter in their first meeting with the Fins last season - in week-2 - with Garoppolo starting and Brissett finishing up. Then, in week-17, Brady & Co. hung another 35 on Joseph's defense.
The Broncos' run-D has been significantly worse the past four games compared to their first four, and their pass-D has given up 16 TDs.
The weather in Denver is forecast to be clear and calm with game-start temp around 40f and falling slowly.