TNF: Chiefs LOSE LOL

[Ring 6]

Just calculated the win totals for the teams each have beaten. My #’s may be off since i had 2 toddlers screaming in my ear, but we are ahead at the moment if i counted right. Not sure if espn’s calculator is so advanced to get up to date SOV through week 17 assuming the scenarios discussed for these 3 to get to 12-4 with sd winning the west + the expected victories in the other games... maybe it is and the texans/chargers’ defeated opponents are favored to win that much more than ours over the last 3 weeks? Not motivated nearly enough to do THAT calculation now.

Chargers 59 w (Including Thursday, will go up depending on the teams they beat that win tomorrow/today).
Texans 61 w (65 if they win today, Plus the teams they beat that win tomorrow/today )
Patriots 62 w (69 if we win tomorrow, plus the teams we beat that win tomorrow/today )

One thing i do know is we should include packers, vikings, bears in our teams of interest to root for since those are most exclusive to our wins.

I came up with 63 wins and 2 ties for the patriots 9 beaten opponents and 60 for the chargers 11.
This means it’s almost impossible for the patriots to end up losing this tiebreaker as a tie will require the patriots winning 3 more and the chargers only winning one more.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I came up with 63 wins and 2 ties for the patriots 9 beaten opponents and 60 for the chargers 11.
This means it’s almost impossible for the patriots to end up losing this tiebreaker as a tie will require the patriots winning 3 more and the chargers only winning one more.

The numbers can still vary quite a bit though. Say all the chargers beaten opponents do considerably better in their last 3 games than all of our beaten opponents. chargers sov will continue to climb in addition to their one more win while ours may not climb as much. It’s probably not all that likely, but it’s possible. Knowing what the sov values will be at the conclusion of the week 17 is something we can’t really predict right now since it depends on how ALL the beaten teams do over the next 3 weeks as well.

The main thing I’m wondering is does this playoff calculator have the necessary programming to calculate what each teams sov will be at the conclusion of week 17 based on the results we put in and somehow la/Houston do sneak ahead on sov or if the machine is just full of it.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

There’s no reason for it not to have the programming. The necessary programming isn’t very hard. You’re just adding up the records of the teams you beat and the teams you played and then doing that for each team.

It’s absolutely a huge pain in the butt to do manually. But it’s trivial to program.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

There’s no reason for it not to have the programming. The necessary programming isn’t very hard. You’re just adding up the records of the teams you beat and the teams you played and then doing that for each team.

It’s absolutely a huge pain in the butt to do manually. But it’s trivial to program.

I agree, its just hard to see sd passing us up in sov by then so i felt a little iffy on that. Perhaps they could if their beaten opponents have that many more favorable matchups left.

 

[Ring 6]

The numbers can still vary quite a bit though. Say all the chargers beaten opponents do considerably better in their last 3 games than all of our beaten opponents. chargers sov will continue to climb in addition to their one more win while ours may not climb as much. It’s probably not all that likely, but it’s possible. Knowing what the sov values will be at the conclusion of the week 17 is something we can’t really predict right now since it depends on how ALL the beaten teams do over the next 3 weeks as well.

The main thing I’m wondering is does this playoff calculator have the necessary programming to calculate what each teams sov will be at the conclusion of week 17 based on the results we put in and somehow la/Houston do sneak ahead on sov or if the machine is just full of it.

Sure but the lead is commanding when you consider that the tie assumes we add wins vs Pitt jets and bills moving our number to 78 and they beat only the raiders (if their loss needed to create a tie is to the raiders they lose the tiebreaker to kc) bringing them to 63.

IF all of each teams 12 opponents beaten had 3 games left (which is not the case but I’m not going to bother to count them up) that would be 36 remaining games where they would have to make up 16 wins (because our opp have more ties) meaning something like:
Their opponents (approx 63-81 so far) would have to go 30-6 while our opponents (78-66 so far) would have to go 14-22.

So not very likely, or as I said earlier, we gave a commanding lead in that tiebreaker.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Sure but the lead is commanding when you consider that the tie assumes we add wins vs Pitt jets and bills moving our number to 78 and they beat only the raiders (if their loss needed to create a tie is to the raiders they lose the tiebreaker to kc) bringing them to 63.

IF all of each teams 12 opponents beaten had 3 games left (which is not the case but I’m not going to bother to count them up) that would be 36 remaining games where they would have to make up 16 wins (because our opp have more ties) meaning something like:
Their opponents (approx 63-81 so far) would have to go 30-6 while our opponents (78-66 so far) would have to go 14-22.

So not very likely, or as I said earlier, we gave a commanding lead in that tiebreaker.

Right, its not very likely and that playoff machine is mostly predicting games based on who has the higher win % other than the couple games we alter to get all 3 teams to 12-4, so I doubt it could realistically calculate us at a lower sov than sd. So im interested to see how they calculate us at 3 , unless we are interpreting the tiebreakers before sov incorrectly. Or its flat out wrong

 

[Ring 6]

Right, its not very likely and that playoff machine is mostly predicting games based on who has the higher win % other than the couple games we alter to get all 3 teams to 12-4, so I doubt it could realistically calculate us at a lower sov than sd. So im interested to see how they calculate us at 3 , unless we are interpreting the tiebreakers before sov incorrectly. Or its flat out wrong

Because they are giving LA the tiebreaker based upon win % in common games.
That’s it because they have played more of the common games. We have the same number of losses. Our being in a 12-4 tie requires us to win out which would make that tiebreaker equal.

Epsn isn’t saying LA wins the strength of victory, they are saying it never gets to that because LA is winning the common opponents but ignores that it has to be a push for there to be a tie.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Because they are giving LA the tiebreaker based upon win % in common games.
That’s it because they have played more of the common games. We have the same number of losses. Our being in a 12-4 tie requires us to win out which would make that tiebreaker equal.

Epsn isn’t saying LA wins the strength of victory, they are saying it never gets to that because LA is winning the common opponents but ignores that it has to be a push for there to be a tie.

I would think they’d calculate these tiebreakers based off the conclusion of week 17 given the entered results, where common games would be tied? If not and they are giving it to sd based off common games then yea its not an accurate predictor at all.