Obligatory Playoff Picture Thread: Week 16

[jmt57]

Playoff Scenarios entering Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season.

I'm not going to list them all, excluding seven-scenario situations, multiple tie games, etc.
For simplicity ties are not factored in.
Primary focus is on outcomes of only week 16 games.

AFC​

11-3 Kansas City Chiefs
at 8-6 Seahawks
vs 3-11 Raiders
- Have already clinched a playoff spot, at least #5 seed
- Clinch #1 Seed with:
(a) Win at Seahawks, AND (b) Chargers loss to Ravens, AND (c) Texans loss to Eagles
- Clinch #1 Seed with:
Literally 24 other scenarios, all involving eight week 16 games.
- Clinch at least #2 Seed with:
(a) Win at Seahawks, AND (b) Chargers lose to Ravens

10-4 Houston Texans
at 7-7 Eagles
vs 4-10 Jaguars
- Clinch AFCS and at least #2 Seed (bye) with:
(a) Win at Eagles, AND (b) Patriots loss to Bills
Houston controls their own destiny; two wins and they have a bye at minimum.
- Clinch AFCS and at least #3 Seed with a win.
Eight other scenarios involving 4 to 8 game outcomes also give Houston the #3 seed.
- Clinch AFCS and at least #4 Seed with:
(a) Colts loss, AND (b) Titans loss
- Clinch playoff spot (at least #6 seed) with:
(1) Steelers lose to Saints, OR
(2) Chargers beat Ravens, OR
(3) any one of 23 other scenarios, involving four to six games.
- Eliminated from #1 Seed with
(1) loss to Eagles, AND Chargers win; OR
(2) loss to Eagles, AND Chiefs win

9-5 New England Patriots
vs 5-9 Bills
vs 4-10 Jets
- Clinch AFCE and at least #3 seed with:
(a) win vs Bills, AND (b) Steelers lose to Saints, AND (c) Chargers beat Ravens
- Clinch AFCE and at least #4 seed with:
(a) win (this week or next), OR (b) Dolphins lose (this week or next)
- Eliminated from #1 Seed with
(1) loss to Bills, OR
(2) Texans win, OR
(3) Chargers win, OR
(4) Chiefs win
- Eliminated from #2 Seed with
(a) Patriots lose to Bills, AND (b) Texans win

8-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
at 12-2 Saints
vs 6-8 Bengals
- Clinch AFCN and at least #4 Seed with:
(a) win at Saints, AND (b) Ravens lose to Chargers
- Clinch playoff spot, at least #6 seed with:
(a) win at Saints, AND (b) Colts lose, AND (c) Titans lose
- Eliminated from #2 seed with:
(a) loss to Saints, AND (b) Texans win
- Eliminated from #3 seed with:
(a) loss to Saints, AND (b) Patriots win

11-3 Los Angeles Chargers
vs 8-6 Ravens
at 6-8 Broncos
The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will be no worse than the #5 seed. They can win the AFCW and get a first round bye, but have no clinching scenarios this week. LAC could be a #1, #2 or #5 seed only; there are no scenarios for the Chargers to be #3, #4 or #6.
- Eliminated from AFCW title and locked into #5 seed with:
(a) loss to Ravens, AND (b) Chiefs win

8-6 Baltimore Ravens
at 11-3 Chargers
vs 6-7-1 Browns
- Baltimore can finish #2, #3, #4, #6, or miss the playoffs.
- There are no scenarios where the Ravens clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #2 Seed with:
(1) loss to Chargers, OR
(2) Texans win, OR
(3) any one of 23 other scenarios involving eight different week 16 game outcomes.
- Eliminated from #3 seed with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Patriots beat Bills
- Eliminated from AFCN title and #4 seed with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints, AND (c) Titans beat Washington

8-6 Indianapolis Colts
vs 5-9 Giants
at 8-6 Titans
- The Colts have very minor chances of winning the AFCN and being the #2, #3 or #4 seed. They could be the #6 seed, or more likely miss the playoffs entirely.
- Indy cannot clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #2 seed with a Patriots win vs Buffalo.
- Eliminated from AFCS title and #4 seed with:
(a) loss to Giants, AND (b) Texans beat Eagles.
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
loss to Giants, and
Steelers beats Saints, and
Ravens beat Chargers, and
Texans lose to Eagles, and
Dolphins beat Jaguars, and
Browns lose to Bengals, and
Cowboys lose to Buccaneers, and
Raiders lose to Broncos, and
Panthers loses to Falcons, and
Patriots beats or tie Bills

8-6 Tennessee Titans
vs 7-7 Redskins
vs 8-6 Colts
- Similar to Indy, the Titans have a very minor chance of winning the AFCN an being the #2, #3 or 34 seed - and about a 50-50 chance of either being the #6 or missing the postseason.
- The Titans cannot clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #4 seed with either
(a) loss to Washington, OR (b) Houston beats Philly.
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Washington, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints, AND (c) Ravens beat Chargers.

7-7 Miami Dolphins
vs 4-10 Jaguars
at 5-9 Bills
With two wins and two Patriot losses, Miami still could conceivably win the AFC East.
- Eliminated from #3 seed with a Pittsburgh win at New Orleans.
- Eliminated from AFCE title and #4 seed with either
(a) tie with Jaguars, or (b) Patriots beat or tie Bills
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Jaguars, OR
(b) Patriots beat Bills, AND Colts beat Giants, AND Titans beat Washington
(c) four other multi-game scenarios, all involving at least one tie

6-7-1 Browns
vs 6-8 Bengals
at 8-6 Ravens
- Eliminated from playoffs with
(a) loss or tie to Bengals, OR
(b) Ravens beat Chargers, OR
(c) Titans beat or tie Washington, OR
(d) Colts beat or tie Giants
- The Browns cannot win the AFC North but they do have a highly improbable chance to make the playoffs. Cleveland could have been eliminated back in week 14, but the Steelers kept their hopes alive by losing to Oakland. Pittsburgh did however eliminate them from the AFC North title by winning last week.
- Cleveland can make the playoffs by
(a) winning both remaining games, and
(b) Baltimore loses to the Chargers (and the Browns, of course), and
(c) Miami loses at least once, to either Jacksonville or Buffalo (or both), and
(d) the Colts (vs Giants) and Titans (vs Redskins) both lose in week 16, setting up
(e) the Colts-Titans week 17 game ending in a tie

Highly improbable, but it would be funny if that happened.

With victories in each of their final two games, Cleveland could have their first winning season in 11 years - when Romeo Crennel's squad went 10-6. If they split their final two games the Browns would finish with seven wins - the most since 2014, when Brian Hoyer was the starting QB over rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer threw for 3,326 yards that season, with four 4th quarter comebacks and four game winning drives.

In the would'a could'a should'a department, consider this: In overtime the Browns lost two games and tied another this year, and inexplicably began the season with Tyrod Taylor at QB over Baker Mayfield. Add in a last second 3-point loss after their kicker missed two makeable field goals, and the Browns could have conceivably had 8, 9 or even 10 wins right now.

 

[jmt57]

NFC​

12-2 New Orleans Saints
vs 8-5-1 Steelers
vs 6-8 Panthers
- Have clinched NFC South; can finish no worse than #3 seed.
- Clinch #1 seed with win vs Steelers
- Clinch #1 seed with (a) Rams loss to Arizona, AND (b) Bears loss to SF
- Clinch #2 seed with (a) Rams loss to Arizona, OR (b) Bears loss to SF

11-3 Los Angeles Rams
at 3-11 Cardinals
vs 4-10 Forty Niners
- Have clinched NFC West; can finish no worse than #3 seed.
- Clinch bye and at least #2 seed with (a) win vs Ariz, AND (b) Bears loss to SF
- Eliminated from #1 seed with (a) loss to Arizona, OR (b) Saints beat Steelers

10-4 Chicago Bears
at 4-10 Forty Niners
at 7-6-1 Vikings
- Have clinched NFC North; could Be #1, #2, #3 or 34 seed.
- Clinch at least #3 seed with (a) win vs SF, AND (b) Cowboys loss to Bucs
- Eliminated from #1 seed with (a) loss to SF, AND (b) Saints beat Steelers
- Eliminated from #2 seed with (a) loss to SF, AND (b) Rams beat Arizona

8-6 Dallas Cowboys
vs 5-9 Buccaneers
at 5-9 Giants
- Can finish in any slot from #3 to #6, or could miss playoffs.
- Clinch NFC East and at least #4 seed with either:
(a) win vs Tampa Bay, OR
(b) Eagles loss to Texans, AND Redskins loss to Titans
- Eliminated from #3 seed with either:
(a) loss to Bucs, OR (b) Bears beat SF

8-6 Seattle Seahawks
vs 11-3 Chiefs
vs 3-11 Cardinals
- Seattle can only either be a wild card team, or miss the postseason.
- Clinch the #5 seed with
(a) win vs Chiefs, AND (b) Redskins loss to Titans, AND (c) Vikings loss to Lions
- Clinch the #6 seed with (a) win vs Chiefs, AND (b) Redskins loss
- Clinch the #6 seed with (a) win vs Chiefs, AND (b) Vikings loss
- There are also 24 other scenarios involving up to seven games where Seattle can clinch the #5 seed this week, and 23 other multi-game scenarios where the Seahawks can clinch a playoff spot with at least the #6 seed.

7-6-1 Minnesota Vikings
at 5-9 Lions
vs 10-4 Bears
- Minnesota can be a #5 seed, #6 seed, or miss the postseason.
- Clinch a playoff spot and at least the #6 seed with
(a) win vs Lions, AND (b) Redskins loss to Titans, AND Eagles loss to Texans
- Eliminated from #5 seed with
(a) loss to Lions, AND (b) Seahawks beat Chiefs
- 24 other multi game scenarios that all begin with a Vikings-Lions tie would also eliminate Minnesota from the #5 seed.

7-7 Philadelphia Eagles
vs 10-4 Texans
at 7-7 Redskins
- Philadelphia can be a #4 seed, #5, #6, or could miss the postseason.
- No clinching scenarios for the Eagles in week 16.
- Eliminated from #5 seed with loss to Texans
- Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) Seattle win vs KC, AND (b) Cowboys win vs TB
- Eliminated from playoffs with (a) loss to Texans, AND (b) Vikings beat Det
- Many other elimination scenarios also, all based on either an Eagles tie or Viking tie

7-7 Washington Redskins
at 8-6 Titans
vs 7-7 Eagles
- Can finish no higher than #4 seed.
- Cannot clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from NFC East title and #4 seed with either (a) loss OR (b) Cowboys win
- Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) loss to Titans, AND (b) Vikings beat Lions
- Eliminated from #5 seed with (a) loss to Titans, AND (b) Seahawks beat Chiefs
- Eliminated from #5 seed in several other scenarios involving six games, even if Washington does win.
- Eliminated from playoffs with (a) loss to Titans, AND (b) Eagles beat Texans
- Eliminated from playoffs with (a) loss to Titans, AND (b) Vikings beat Lions, AND (c) Seahawks beat Chiefs

6-8 Carolina Panthers
vs 5-9 Falcons
at 12-2 Saints
- Can finish no better than #6 seed.
- Eliminated with either
(a) loss, OR
(b) Vikings win, OR
(c) Redskins beat Titans, AND Eagles beat Texans, AND Cowboys beat Bucs
- Most feasible scenario for Carolina to make the playoffs:
(a) Panthers win both of their games
(b) Vikings lose twice
(c) Eagles lose to Texans, then beat Washington

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Slight correction on NE: NE wins AFCE (and thus at least the #4 seed) with either a NE or a MIA loss. No need for both to happen. (And in fact ANY Pats win in the last two games or ANY Miami loss in the last two games gives NE the AFCE.)

 

[Ring 6]

Can you clarify:

Patriots eliminated from 1 seed if Texans win.

Aren’t the patriots the 1 if they, kc and Houston all finish at 11-5?
A Houston win wouldn’t seem to eliminate them.

 

[jmt57]

Slight correction on NE: NE wins AFCE (and thus at least the #4 seed) with either a NE or a MIA loss. No need for both to happen. (And in fact ANY Pats win in the last two games or ANY Miami loss in the last two games gives NE the AFCE.)

Excellent catch, I edited the original post with the corrected information.

Can you clarify:

Patriots eliminated from 1 seed if Texans win.

Aren’t the patriots the 1 if they, kc and Houston all finish at 11-5?
A Houston win wouldn’t seem to eliminate them.

Good question.
I am on my way out the door, I'll check on that later.
You may very well be correct (and the site I used could be incorrect).

Edit: You are correct. First tiebreaker is head to head, so in that scenario the Patriots would be #1, based on head to head (victories over both the Texans and Chiefs). However, the Chargers also now have 11 wins, so I'm not yet sure how that figures in to the equation.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Excellent catch, I edited the original post with the corrected information.


Good question.
I am on my way out the door, I'll check on that later.
You may very well be correct (and the site I used could be incorrect).

I am correct

NE is 9-5. MIA is 7-7. Best MIA can do is 9-7. With any NE win NE will have 10 wins, which MIA cannot match. Worst NE can do is 9-7. With any MIA loss MIA will have 8 losses, which NE cannot fall to.

Thus any NE win or any MIA loss gives NE the division.

 

[BlueThunder]

JUSTWIN

 

[fxmallon]

"Obligatory" is right. Right about now we are probably all sick of false fantasizing over the playoff picture. Surfeited is another good word for it. When we're 11-5 that might be a good moment to rejoin the playoff picture fun. Because you can only take so much of this reliance on other teams to lose.

 

[Soliel]

I’m almost terrified to think about this, I’m no fair weather guy and NO I do not only like this team for winning. I hate losing. Done enough of that in the two decades before

 

[jmt57]

Can you clarify:

Patriots eliminated from 1 seed if Texans win.

Aren’t the patriots the 1 if they, kc and Houston all finish at 11-5?
A Houston win wouldn’t seem to eliminate them.

I used the espn playoff machine, and it shows the following if the Texans, Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots all finish 11-5:
1. Patriots
2. Chiefs
3. Texans
4. Steelers or Ravens
5. Chargers
6. Colts/Titans/Ravens/Steelers/Dolphins/Browns

 

[JetFan79]

If Miami and Buffalo win this week, next week is gonna be fun.

Pats would be playing the Jets to get into the playoffs. Jets could knock them out.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If Miami and Buffalo win this week, next week is gonna be fun.

Pats would be playing the Jets to get into the playoffs. Jets could knock them out.

Right after a space alien supermodel takes me to the mother ship to have her way with me

 

[Brewskies]

JUSTWIN

I agree by winning both games (it is what it is) will eliminate my need to understand the various situations.

Pats Just Win Both

Go Pats

 

[maineman209]

"Obligatory" is right. Right about now we are probably all sick of false fantasizing over the playoff picture. Surfeited is another good word for it. When we're 11-5 that might be a good moment to rejoin the playoff picture fun. Because you can only take so much of this reliance on other teams to lose.

One more W and the Pats win the AFCE and a playoff spot. The only question then is seeding (and a BYE). Root for Philly to beat the Texans.

 

[Tunescribe]

If Miami and Buffalo win this week, next week is gonna be fun.

Pats would be playing the Jets to get into the playoffs. Jets could knock them out.

 

[1960Pats]

Playoff Scenarios entering Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season.

I'm not going to list them all, excluding seven-scenario situations, multiple tie games, etc.
For simplicity ties are not factored in.
Primary focus is on outcomes of only week 16 games.

AFC​

11-3 Kansas City Chiefs
at 8-6 Seahawks
vs 3-11 Raiders
- Have already clinched a playoff spot, at least #5 seed
- Clinch #1 Seed with:
(a) Win at Seahawks, AND (b) Chargers loss to Ravens, AND (c) Texans loss to Eagles
- Clinch #1 Seed with:
Literally 24 other scenarios, all involving eight week 16 games.
- Clinch at least #2 Seed with:
(a) Win at Seahawks, AND (b) Chargers lose to Ravens

10-4 Houston Texans
at 7-7 Eagles
vs 4-10 Jaguars
- Clinch AFCS and at least #2 Seed (bye) with:
(a) Win at Eagles, AND (b) Patriots loss to Bills
Houston controls their own destiny; two wins and they have a bye at minimum.
- Clinch AFCS and at least #3 Seed with a win.
Eight other scenarios involving 4 to 8 game outcomes also give Houston the #3 seed.
- Clinch AFCS and at least #4 Seed with:
(a) Colts loss, AND (b) Titans loss
- Clinch playoff spot (at least #6 seed) with:
(1) Steelers lose to Saints, OR
(2) Chargers beat Ravens, OR
(3) any one of 23 other scenarios, involving four to six games.
- Eliminated from #1 Seed with
(1) loss to Eagles, AND Chargers win; OR
(2) loss to Eagles, AND Chiefs win

9-5 New England Patriots
vs 5-9 Bills
vs 4-10 Jets
- Clinch AFCE and at least #3 seed with:
(a) win vs Bills, AND (b) Steelers lose to Saints, AND (c) Chargers beat Ravens
- Clinch AFCE and at least #4 seed with:
(a) win (this week or next), OR (b) Dolphins lose (this week or next)
- Eliminated from #1 Seed with
(1) loss to Bills, OR
(2) Texans win, OR
(3) Chargers win, OR
(4) Chiefs win
- Eliminated from #2 Seed with
(a) Patriots lose to Bills, AND (b) Texans win

8-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers
at 12-2 Saints
vs 6-8 Bengals
- Clinch AFCN and at least #4 Seed with:
(a) win at Saints, AND (b) Ravens lose to Chargers
- Clinch playoff spot, at least #6 seed with:
(a) win at Saints, AND (b) Colts lose, AND (c) Titans lose
- Eliminated from #2 seed with:
(a) loss to Saints, AND (b) Texans win
- Eliminated from #3 seed with:
(a) loss to Saints, AND (b) Patriots win

11-3 Los Angeles Chargers
vs 8-6 Ravens
at 6-8 Broncos
The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will be no worse than the #5 seed. They can win the AFCW and get a first round bye, but have no clinching scenarios this week. LAC could be a #1, #2 or #5 seed only; there are no scenarios for the Chargers to be #3, #4 or #6.
- Eliminated from AFCW title and locked into #5 seed with:
(a) loss to Ravens, AND (b) Chiefs win

8-6 Baltimore Ravens
at 11-3 Chargers
vs 6-7-1 Browns
- Baltimore can finish #2, #3, #4, #6, or miss the playoffs.
- There are no scenarios where the Ravens clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #2 Seed with:
(1) loss to Chargers, OR
(2) Texans win, OR
(3) any one of 23 other scenarios involving eight different week 16 game outcomes.
- Eliminated from #3 seed with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Patriots beat Bills
- Eliminated from AFCN title and #4 seed with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Chargers, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints, AND (c) Titans beat Washington

8-6 Indianapolis Colts
vs 5-9 Giants
at 8-6 Titans
- The Colts have very minor chances of winning the AFCN and being the #2, #3 or #4 seed. They could be the #6 seed, or more likely miss the playoffs entirely.
- Indy cannot clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #2 seed with a Patriots win vs Buffalo.
- Eliminated from AFCS title and #4 seed with:
(a) loss to Giants, AND (b) Texans beat Eagles.
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
loss to Giants, and
Steelers beats Saints, and
Ravens beat Chargers, and
Texans lose to Eagles, and
Dolphins beat Jaguars, and
Browns lose to Bengals, and
Cowboys lose to Buccaneers, and
Raiders lose to Broncos, and
Panthers loses to Falcons, and
Patriots beats or tie Bills

8-6 Tennessee Titans
vs 7-7 Redskins
vs 8-6 Colts
- Similar to Indy, the Titans have a very minor chance of winning the AFCN an being the #2, #3 or 34 seed - and about a 50-50 chance of either being the #6 or missing the postseason.
- The Titans cannot clinch anything in week 16.
- Eliminated from #4 seed with either
(a) loss to Washington, OR (b) Houston beats Philly.
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Washington, AND (b) Steelers beat Saints, AND (c) Ravens beat Chargers.

7-7 Miami Dolphins
vs 4-10 Jaguars
at 5-9 Bills
With two wins and two Patriot losses, Miami still could conceivably win the AFC East.
- Eliminated from #3 seed with a Pittsburgh win at New Orleans.
- Eliminated from AFCE title and #4 seed with either
(a) tie with Jaguars, or (b) Patriots beat or tie Bills
- Eliminated from playoffs with:
(a) loss to Jaguars, OR
(b) Patriots beat Bills, AND Colts beat Giants, AND Titans beat Washington
(c) four other multi-game scenarios, all involving at least one tie

6-7-1 Browns
vs 6-8 Bengals
at 8-6 Ravens
- Eliminated from playoffs with
(a) loss or tie to Bengals, OR
(b) Ravens beat Chargers, OR
(c) Titans beat or tie Washington, OR
(d) Colts beat or tie Giants
- The Browns cannot win the AFC North but they do have a highly improbable chance to make the playoffs. Cleveland could have been eliminated back in week 14, but the Steelers kept their hopes alive by losing to Oakland. Pittsburgh did however eliminate them from the AFC North title by winning last week.
- Cleveland can make the playoffs by
(a) winning both remaining games, and
(b) Baltimore loses to the Bears (and the Browns, of course), and
(c) Miami loses at least once, to either Jacksonville or Buffalo (or both), and
(d) the Colts (vs Giants) and Titans (vs Redskins) both lose in week 16, setting up
(e) the Colts-Titans week 17 game ending in a tie

Highly improbable, but it would be funny if that happened.

With victories in each of their final two games, Cleveland could have their first winning season in 11 years - when Romeo Crennel's squad went 10-6. If they split their final two games the Browns would finish with seven wins - the most since 2014, when Brian Hoyer was the starting QB over rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer threw for 3,326 yards that season, with four 4th quarter comebacks and four game winning drives.

In the would'a could'a should'a department, consider this: In overtime the Browns lost two games and tied another this year, and inexplicably began the season with Tyrod Taylor at QB over Baker Mayfield. Add in a last second 3-point loss when their kicker missed two makeable field goals, and the Browns could have conceivably had 8, 9 or even 10 wins right now.

All NE eyes will be on the Houston at Philly game. If the Texans win they'll clinch #2 because they won't be losing vs the Jags the last week.

I think that one or both of KC and LAC will win out but KC has a slightly higher chance of losing on the road to Seattle than the Bolts do at home to the Ratbirds. Neither will lose the last week.

I think that both Pitt and the Ratbirds will split their last two games and the Ratbirds will be knocked out.

The Titans and Indiots will both win this week (Giants and Skins) and will play for the 6th playoff spot in Tennessee the last week.

The last week's games are subject to change if teams have already clinched or been eliminated.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

 

[jmt57]

An update after Saturday's games:

- The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West and #2 seed with a win at Seattle. KC can also clinch the #1 seed with a win today, plus a Texans loss to Philly.
- The AFC North title will not be decided until next week.
- The Browns were eliminated.
- Miami is eliminated with either a loss, or if both the Patriots and Colts win.
- Seattle clinches a wild card spot with a win; they can also clinch the #5 seed with a win plus a Vikings loss at Detroit.
- Washington has been eliminated from the NFC East title. They will be eliminated from the playoffs altogether if the Eagles win, or if both the Vikings and Seahawks win.

 

[Triumph]

KC is 2 - 3 in night games this season.