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Obligatory Week 17 Playoff Picture Thread

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by jmt57, Dec 24, 2018.

  1. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member

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    In case anybody wants to play around with different scenarios, the worldwide leader has this interactive tool: ESPN.com's 2018 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

    There is also this neat flow chart with every scenario for every team still in contention:
    2018 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: The Paths That Remain for Each Team

    Without getting into too many 6-game scenarios, ties, etc.... here we go.

    AFC

    11-4 Kansas City Chiefs (home vs 3-11 Raiders)
    Can be #1, #2, #3 or #5 seed; have clinched a playoff spot
    - #1 seed with win vs Raiders
    - #1 seed if Chargers, Texans and Patriots all lose
    - #2 seed if Chargers and Patriots both lose
    - #2 seed if Texans and Patriots both lose
    - #3 seed if Chiefs lose, and Chargers, Texans and Pats all win
    - #5 seed if KC loses and Chargers win

    11-4 Los Angeles Chargers (at 6-8 Broncos)
    Can only be either the #1 seed or the #5 seed
    - #1 seed if Chargers win and Chiefs lose
    - #5 seed in any other scenario

    10-5 New England Patriots (home vs 4-11 Jest)
    Can be #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed; have clinched AFC East
    - #1 seed with win, plus Chiefs lose, plus Chargers lose
    - #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs lose, plus Chargers win
    - #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs win, plus Chargers lose
    - #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs win, plus Chargers win
    - #2 seed if Pats tie Jets, plus Texans lose or tie Jaguars
    - #2 seed with loss, Ravens loss, Texans loss, and Titans loss
    - #3 seed with loss, Ravens loss, Texans loss, and Titans win
    - #3 seed with loss, Ravens loss, and Texans win
    - #3 seed with loss, Ravens win, Texans loss, and Colts win
    - #4 seed with loss, Ravens win, Texans loss, and Titans win
    - #4 seed with loss, Ravens win, and Texans win

    10-5 Houston Texans (home vs 5-10 Jaguars)
    Can be #1, #2, #3, #4 or #6 seed; have clinched playoff spot
    - #1 seed with win, plus Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots all lose
    - #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs and Chargers both lose, plus various specific NFC game outcomes
    - #3 seed with win, Pats win, and Chiefs win
    - #3 seed with win, Pats win, Chiefs lose, and Chargers win
    - #4 seed with loss, and Colts-Titans tie
    - #6 seed with loss (unless Colts-Titans tie)

    9-6 Baltimore Ravens (home vs 7-7-1 Browns)
    Can be #2, #3, #4, #6, or could miss playoffs
    - #2 seed with win, Texans loss, and Patriots loss
    - #3 seed with win, Texans loss, and Patriots win
    - #3 seed with win, Texans win, and Patriots loss
    - #4 seed with win, Texans win, and Patriots win
    - #4 seed with loss and Steelers loss
    - miss playoffs with loss and Steelers win

    8-6-1 Pittsburgh Steelers (home vs 6-9 Bengals)
    Can be #4 seed, #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
    - #4 seed with win, plus Ravens loss
    - #6 seed with win, plus Colts-Titans tie
    - miss playoffs with loss, or Ravens win

    9-6 Indianapolis Colts (at 9-6 Titans)
    Can be #3, #4, #6, or miss playoffs
    - #3 seed with win, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
    - #4 seed with win, Texans loss, and Ravens win
    - #6 seed with win, and Texans win
    - #6 seed with a tie, and either the Ravens or Steelers lose
    - miss playoffs with loss

    9-6 Tennessee Titans (home vs 9-6 Colts)
    Can be #2, #3, #4, #6, or miss playoffs
    - #2 seed with win, Patriots loss, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
    - #3 seed with win, Patriots loss, Texans loss, and Ravens win
    - #3 seed with win, Patriots win, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
    - #4 seed with win, Patriots win, Texans loss, and Ravens win
    - #6 seed with win, and Texans win
    - miss playoff with loss
     
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  2. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member

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    NFC

    13-2 New Orleans Saints (home vs 6-9 Panthers)
    Have clinched NFC South; can only be #1 seed

    12-3 Los Angeles Rams (home vs 4-11 Forty Niners)
    Have clinched NFC West; can be #2 or #3 seed
    - #2 seed with win
    - #2 seed if Bears lose
    - #3 seed with loss, plus Bears win

    11-4 Chicago Bears (at 8-6-1 Vikings)
    Have clinched NFC North; can be #2 or #3 seed
    - #2 seed with win, plus Rams loss
    - #3 seed with win, plus Rams win
    - #3 seed with loss

    9-6 Dallas Cowboys (at 5-10 Giants)
    Have clinched NFC East; can only be #4 seed

    9-6 Seattle Seahawks (home vs 3-12 Cardinals)
    Have clinched a wild card spot; can be either #5 or #6 seed
    - #5 seed with win
    - #5 seed with loss, plus Vikings loss
    - #6 seed with loss, plus Vikings win

    8-6-1 Minnesota Vikings (home vs 11-4 Bears)
    Can be #5 seed, #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
    - #5 seed with win, plus Seahawks loss
    - #6 seed with win, plus Seahawks win
    - #6 seed with loss, plus Eagles loss
    - miss playoffs with loss, plus Eagles win

    8-7 Philadelphia Eagles (at 7-8 Redskins)
    - Can either be #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
    - #6 seed with win, plus Vikings loss
    - miss playoffs with win, plus Vikings win
    - miss playoffs with loss
     
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  3. WHPats

    WHPats On the Game Day Roster

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    What happens if we win and so do the Chargers and Chiefs?
     
  4. QuantumMechanic

    QuantumMechanic Burn it all down! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #2.
    KC will be 1 and LAC will be 5.

    NE clinches at least the 2 with a win regardless of what anyone else does.

    The only way NE gets the 1 is to win and have KC win the AFCW at 11-5.
     
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  5. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    2 seed.

    Baltimore and Tennessee could potentially get first round byes, or miss the playoffs altogether, wow.
     
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  6. Ras-IR Dowling

    Ras-IR Dowling Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Just out of curiosity had we handled Miami would we have been the 1 with a win against the jets?
     
  7. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    If i told you the answer, youd wish I didn’t
     
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  8. Ras-IR Dowling

    Ras-IR Dowling Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Ah gotcha.
     
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  9. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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  10. bormio

    bormio In the Starting Line-Up

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    Mariota is like porcelain.
     
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  11. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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  12. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member

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    With the exception of fans in New Orleans and a handful of teams vying for the number one draft pick, many in every other NFL fan base are going through a similar 'what if / would'a could'a should'a' masochistic exercise of anguish and torment.

    Texans: 0-3 start, including home loss to Giants

    Titans: lost to Bills by 1 as time expired after being unable to score TD inside the 10
    Titans: lost to Chargers by 1 after two failed two-point conversions, rather than kick XP to go to OT

    Colts: 1-5 start included losses to Jets, Bengals, and home OT loss to Texans

    Ravens: 0-2 in OT, including loss to Browns

    Steelers: Week 1 tied Browns (w/Tyrod Taylor at QB); losses to Broncos and Raiders .... (but instead they focus on penalty vs Saints, so let them suffer).

    Chargers: home loss to Broncos

    Chiefs: their first half vs Pats cost them that game; blew a 28-14 lead at home with 4:00 left to play to lose to Chargers

    Dolphins: could be 9-6 if not for home losses to Lions (2-3 at time) and Jaguars last week (Jax had lost 9 of previous 10 games)

    Browns: wishing they had fired Hue Jackson a year ago, and let Baker Mayfield start from week 1. Also wish they started the season with a better kicker, costing them wins in three games (they could realistically be 10-5 right now, 1st place in AFC North)
     
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  13. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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  14. WHPats

    WHPats On the Game Day Roster

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    If NE and HOU both lose, what scenario would need to happen for the Patriots to slide to #3? Is there any possible way we finish lower than #3? I'd be shocked if we lost to NYJ at home, but I'm asking out of curiosity. We need to just take care of our business.
     
  15. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member

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    Two scenarios for Pats to slide to #3 if both NE and Houston lose:
    Ravens beat Browns, Colts beat Titans
    Browns beat Ravens, Titans beat Colts

    Two scenarios:
    Pats lose to Jets, Ravens beat Browns, Texans beat Jaguars,
    Pats lose to Jets, Ravens beat Browns, Texans lose to Jax, Titans beat Colts

    If the Patriots win they get a bye, regardless of what else happens.
     
  16. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    All true, but I think it's fair to say the Miami loss is uniquely painful.
     
  17. Soliel

    Soliel PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I can only say one thing with certainty. Kc are streak oriented bums
     
  18. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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  19. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the Colts are a sneaky superbowl contender
     

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