Obligatory Week 17 Playoff Picture Thread

[jmt57]

In case anybody wants to play around with different scenarios, the worldwide leader has this interactive tool: ESPN.com's 2018 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

There is also this neat flow chart with every scenario for every team still in contention:
2018 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: The Paths That Remain for Each Team

Without getting into too many 6-game scenarios, ties, etc.... here we go.

AFC​

11-4 Kansas City Chiefs (home vs 3-11 Raiders)
Can be #1, #2, #3 or #5 seed; have clinched a playoff spot
- #1 seed with win vs Raiders
- #1 seed if Chargers, Texans and Patriots all lose
- #2 seed if Chargers and Patriots both lose
- #2 seed if Texans and Patriots both lose
- #3 seed if Chiefs lose, and Chargers, Texans and Pats all win
- #5 seed if KC loses and Chargers win

11-4 Los Angeles Chargers (at 6-8 Broncos)
Can only be either the #1 seed or the #5 seed
- #1 seed if Chargers win and Chiefs lose
- #5 seed in any other scenario

10-5 New England Patriots (home vs 4-11 Jest)
Can be #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed; have clinched AFC East
- #1 seed with win, plus Chiefs lose, plus Chargers lose
- #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs lose, plus Chargers win
- #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs win, plus Chargers lose
- #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs win, plus Chargers win
- #2 seed if Pats tie Jets, plus Texans lose or tie Jaguars
- #2 seed with loss, Ravens loss, Texans loss, and Titans loss
- #3 seed with loss, Ravens loss, Texans loss, and Titans win
- #3 seed with loss, Ravens loss, and Texans win
- #3 seed with loss, Ravens win, Texans loss, and Colts win
- #4 seed with loss, Ravens win, Texans loss, and Titans win
- #4 seed with loss, Ravens win, and Texans win

10-5 Houston Texans (home vs 5-10 Jaguars)
Can be #1, #2, #3, #4 or #6 seed; have clinched playoff spot
- #1 seed with win, plus Chiefs, Chargers and Patriots all lose
- #2 seed with win, plus Chiefs and Chargers both lose, plus various specific NFC game outcomes
- #3 seed with win, Pats win, and Chiefs win
- #3 seed with win, Pats win, Chiefs lose, and Chargers win
- #4 seed with loss, and Colts-Titans tie
- #6 seed with loss (unless Colts-Titans tie)

9-6 Baltimore Ravens (home vs 7-7-1 Browns)
Can be #2, #3, #4, #6, or could miss playoffs
- #2 seed with win, Texans loss, and Patriots loss
- #3 seed with win, Texans loss, and Patriots win
- #3 seed with win, Texans win, and Patriots loss
- #4 seed with win, Texans win, and Patriots win
- #4 seed with loss and Steelers loss
- miss playoffs with loss and Steelers win

8-6-1 Pittsburgh Steelers (home vs 6-9 Bengals)
Can be #4 seed, #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
- #4 seed with win, plus Ravens loss
- #6 seed with win, plus Colts-Titans tie
- miss playoffs with loss, or Ravens win

9-6 Indianapolis Colts (at 9-6 Titans)
Can be #3, #4, #6, or miss playoffs
- #3 seed with win, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
- #4 seed with win, Texans loss, and Ravens win
- #6 seed with win, and Texans win
- #6 seed with a tie, and either the Ravens or Steelers lose
- miss playoffs with loss

9-6 Tennessee Titans (home vs 9-6 Colts)
Can be #2, #3, #4, #6, or miss playoffs
- #2 seed with win, Patriots loss, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
- #3 seed with win, Patriots loss, Texans loss, and Ravens win
- #3 seed with win, Patriots win, Texans loss, and Ravens loss
- #4 seed with win, Patriots win, Texans loss, and Ravens win
- #6 seed with win, and Texans win
- miss playoff with loss

 

[jmt57]

NFC​

13-2 New Orleans Saints (home vs 6-9 Panthers)
Have clinched NFC South; can only be #1 seed

12-3 Los Angeles Rams (home vs 4-11 Forty Niners)
Have clinched NFC West; can be #2 or #3 seed
- #2 seed with win
- #2 seed if Bears lose
- #3 seed with loss, plus Bears win

11-4 Chicago Bears (at 8-6-1 Vikings)
Have clinched NFC North; can be #2 or #3 seed
- #2 seed with win, plus Rams loss
- #3 seed with win, plus Rams win
- #3 seed with loss

9-6 Dallas Cowboys (at 5-10 Giants)
Have clinched NFC East; can only be #4 seed

9-6 Seattle Seahawks (home vs 3-12 Cardinals)
Have clinched a wild card spot; can be either #5 or #6 seed
- #5 seed with win
- #5 seed with loss, plus Vikings loss
- #6 seed with loss, plus Vikings win

8-6-1 Minnesota Vikings (home vs 11-4 Bears)
Can be #5 seed, #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
- #5 seed with win, plus Seahawks loss
- #6 seed with win, plus Seahawks win
- #6 seed with loss, plus Eagles loss
- miss playoffs with loss, plus Eagles win

8-7 Philadelphia Eagles (at 7-8 Redskins)
- Can either be #6 seed, or could miss playoffs
- #6 seed with win, plus Vikings loss
- miss playoffs with win, plus Vikings win
- miss playoffs with loss

 

[WHPats]

What happens if we win and so do the Chargers and Chiefs?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

What happens if we win and so do the Chargers and Chiefs?

#2.
KC will be 1 and LAC will be 5.

NE clinches at least the 2 with a win regardless of what anyone else does.

The only way NE gets the 1 is to win and have KC win the AFCW at 11-5.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

What happens if we win and so do the Chargers and Chiefs?

2 seed.

Baltimore and Tennessee could potentially get first round byes, or miss the playoffs altogether, wow.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Just out of curiosity had we handled Miami would we have been the 1 with a win against the jets?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Just out of curiosity had we handled Miami would we have been the 1 with a win against the jets?

If i told you the answer, youd wish I didn’t

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

If i told you the answer, youd wish I didn’t

Ah gotcha.

 

[Uptown]

 

[bormio]

Mariota is like porcelain.

 

[Uptown]

 

[jmt57]

Just out of curiosity had we handled Miami would we have been the 1 with a win against the jets?

If i told you the answer, youd wish I didn’t

Ah gotcha.

With the exception of fans in New Orleans and a handful of teams vying for the number one draft pick, many in every other NFL fan base are going through a similar 'what if / would'a could'a should'a' masochistic exercise of anguish and torment.

Texans: 0-3 start, including home loss to Giants

Titans: lost to Bills by 1 as time expired after being unable to score TD inside the 10
Titans: lost to Chargers by 1 after two failed two-point conversions, rather than kick XP to go to OT

Colts: 1-5 start included losses to Jets, Bengals, and home OT loss to Texans

Ravens: 0-2 in OT, including loss to Browns

Steelers: Week 1 tied Browns (w/Tyrod Taylor at QB); losses to Broncos and Raiders .... (but instead they focus on penalty vs Saints, so let them suffer).

Chargers: home loss to Broncos

Chiefs: their first half vs Pats cost them that game; blew a 28-14 lead at home with 4:00 left to play to lose to Chargers

Dolphins: could be 9-6 if not for home losses to Lions (2-3 at time) and Jaguars last week (Jax had lost 9 of previous 10 games)

Browns: wishing they had fired Hue Jackson a year ago, and let Baker Mayfield start from week 1. Also wish they started the season with a better kicker, costing them wins in three games (they could realistically be 10-5 right now, 1st place in AFC North)

 

[Uptown]

 

[WHPats]

If NE and HOU both lose, what scenario would need to happen for the Patriots to slide to #3? Is there any possible way we finish lower than #3? I'd be shocked if we lost to NYJ at home, but I'm asking out of curiosity. We need to just take care of our business.

 

[jmt57]

If NE and HOU both lose, what scenario would need to happen for the Patriots to slide to #3?

Two scenarios for Pats to slide to #3 if both NE and Houston lose:
Ravens beat Browns, Colts beat Titans
Browns beat Ravens, Titans beat Colts

Is there any possible way we finish lower than #3? I'd be shocked if we lost to NYJ at home, but I'm asking out of curiosity.

Two scenarios:
Pats lose to Jets, Ravens beat Browns, Texans beat Jaguars,
Pats lose to Jets, Ravens beat Browns, Texans lose to Jax, Titans beat Colts

We need to just take care of our business.

If the Patriots win they get a bye, regardless of what else happens.

 

[aluminum seats]

With the exception of fans in New Orleans and a handful of teams vying for the number one draft pick, many in every other NFL fan base are going through a similar 'what if / would'a could'a should'a' masochistic exercise of anguish and torment.

Texans: 0-3 start, including home loss to Giants

Titans: lost to Bills by 1 as time expired after being unable to score TD inside the 10
Titans: lost to Chargers by 1 after two failed two-point conversions, rather than kick XP to go to OT

Colts: 1-5 start included losses to Jets, Bengals, and home OT loss to Texans

Ravens: 0-2 in OT, including loss to Browns

Steelers: Week 1 tied Browns (w/Tyrod Taylor at QB); losses to Broncos and Raiders .... (but instead they focus on penalty vs Saints, so let them suffer).

Chargers: home loss to Broncos

Chiefs: their first half vs Pats cost them that game; blew a 28-14 lead at home with 4:00 left to play to lose to Chargers

Dolphins: could be 9-6 if not for home losses to Lions (2-3 at time) and Jaguars last week (Jax had lost 9 of previous 10 games)

Browns: wishing they had fired Hue Jackson a year ago, and let Baker Mayfield start from week 1. Also wish they started the season with a better kicker, costing them wins in three games (they could realistically be 10-5 right now, 1st place in AFC North)

All true, but I think it's fair to say the Miami loss is uniquely painful.

 

[Soliel]

I can only say one thing with certainty. Kc are streak oriented bums

 

[Uptown]

 

[fightingirish595]

I think the Colts are a sneaky superbowl contender