The Biggest Reason We Are Starting A Rebuild

[Ochmed Jones]

Perhaps some qualification here might shed some light:

Easly pick #29
Brown pick #32
Jones pick #60
Rivers pick #83
Wynn pick #23
Harry pick #32
Duggar pick #37...

Notice a trend here?? The average pick for the period of time chosen is the average pick number is over 40 ( which is about as idiotic as looking at the individual players) ... but somehow BB got this team to the Super Bowl 5 times in the same period winning 3 of them.. oh the horrors at how bad he is in building a team. How could any quantify BB's success based on his draft picks..

I am the luckiest fan in the world, we have a bad season and continual whyning and finger pointing as to how terrible BB is.. there are about 25 fans of teams out there who would love to be this "bad"...

you forgot Michel!

 

[Boomer B]

If you read my post I excluded Brady, Gronk and Edelman from the comparison as they obviously need some of those high end difference makers. Of course they miss Brady as he is the GOAT - who wouldn't. I just don't think the cupboard is as bare as others think. Their OL drafting is as good as it has ever been and Thuney is probably the 2nd best lineman they have had in the dynasty. Owenu looks extremely promising and even a 6th rounder like Karras is now a starting center. There is no question they need to hit on a few difference makers but they have acquired numerous core players just like the prior teams had.

I do agree on the OL. They do know how to draft those positions.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

amen brother! Reports were that prior to the trade, jimmy was destroying our super bowl defense in practice.

then why trade him for a bowl of porridge?

 

[captain stone]

I posted this in the Asiasi to IR thread, but it bears re-posting here as an example of why we are where we are:

In order to position themselves to draft Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene & Justin Rohrwasser, Bill & Nick traded the:
100th
125th
129th
139th
& the 172nd picks of the 2020 draft
& a 2021 6th-rounder.

To paraphrase Scott Zolak: There's your GM!

 

[AlexB]

you forgot Michel!

A lot of Pats fans have blocked out the Michel pick

 

[DarrylS]

Here is the thing about draft picks, they may or may not produce a lot of impact to your team in year one or two for your team, but drafting badly will have a lasting impact years down the road. We did indeed win 3 super bowls and not a single person here is saying BB the GM is without his merits. But look at the core of the team that won those super bowls, Brady, Gronk, Edelman, Gilmore, Hightower, McCourty, etc. You will notice none of them were drafted in the last 7 years. Sure, it didn't hurt us during that time, but we are now seeing the impact it made on our team right in front of our eyes. The team is completely devoid of young talent, had to rely on paying aging veterans big money and now have cap issues. Draft picks are insanely valuable to NFL teams because it is really the only way to have not just short term but sustainable success. The argument that "hey, sure we drafted badly but it didn't impact us winning superbowls in that time frame" is like saying "hey, sure I started smoking three packs of cigarettes a day, but it didn't kill me today so it must not be a problem".

Often forgotten in all of these arguments is the fact that we won, despite a lot of hand wringing, 3 Super Bowls in 5 years during the same period..

There is not doubt that we do not have a lot of "young talent", but BB has always built teams with include that group, along with underutilized veterans and veterans he can "coach up". Some fans want to quantify it's current mediocrity by analyzing draft picks, but every team has hits and misses in the draft... this is not the exclusive venue of the New England Patriots.

Fans praise Miami, but they have had a lot of lower draft picks recently and credit Grier, who has done a good job, but he was the GM since 2016 and only recently have they turned things around. Last year he had picks 5, 18. 30, 39, 56 & 70.. but he traded away some youthful, previous draft capital Fitzpatrick & Tunsil come to mind.


This team would have probably been better, if the Pats brain trust had known about the COVID opt outs & Hernandez/Gordon arbitration, but during FA period they were up against the cap...

As a fan from the early 70's I have no issue with the downturn, expected it sooner or later, and have complete confidence that this team will be rebuilt next year... this is for lack of a better term, a "bridge year". In '21 with about 70 million in cap space, expect this team to look quite a bit different than it does this year...

 

[amfootball]

Perhaps some qualification here might shed some light:

Easly pick #29
Brown pick #32
Jones pick #60
Rivers pick #83
Wynn pick #23
Harry pick #32
Duggar pick #37...

Notice a trend here?? The average pick for the period of time chosen is the average pick number is over 40 ( which is about as idiotic as looking at the individual players) ... but somehow BB got this team to the Super Bowl 5 times in the same period winning 3 of them.. oh the horrors at how bad he is in building a team. How could any quantify BB's success based on his draft picks..

I am the luckiest fan in the world, we have a bad season and continual whyning and finger pointing as to how terrible BB is.. there are about 25 fans of teams out there who would love to be this "bad"...

Brady covered that mess. Any other GM would have been fired for those picks.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Perhaps some qualification here might shed some light:

Easly pick #29
Brown pick #32
Jones pick #60
Rivers pick #83
Wynn pick #23
Harry pick #32
Duggar pick #37...

Notice a trend here?? The average pick for the period of time chosen is the average pick number is over 40 ( which is about as idiotic as looking at the individual players) ... but somehow BB got this team to the Super Bowl 5 times in the same period winning 3 of them.. oh the horrors at how bad he is in building a team. How could any quantify BB's success based on his draft picks..

I am the luckiest fan in the world, we have a bad season and continual whyning and finger pointing as to how terrible BB is.. there are about 25 fans of teams out there who would love to be this "bad"...

We are a spoiled-rotten fan base.

 

[IllegalContact]

I love cherry-picking

The biggest reason we are beginning a rebuild is the first picks we drafted from 2014 to now.

2014 - Dominic Easley (1st round): bust
2015 - Malcom Brown (1st round): below average
2016 - Cyrus Jones (2nd round): bust
2017 - Derek Rivers (3rd round): bust
2018 - Isiah Wynn (1st round): average
2019 - N’Keal Harry (1st round): looking like a bust
2020 - Kyle Dugger (2nd round): to be determined

We completely whiffed on 5 of our 7 first picks since 2014. Those are the picks you need to pick studs. Before 2014 Belichick nailed many of those first picks including Seymour, Mankins, McCourty, Jones, Warren, Mayo, Chung, Solder, and Collins.

2013 - Aaron dobson (2nd round): bust
2012 - Tavon Wilson (2nd round): bust
2011 - Ras-I Dowling (2nd round): bust
2010 - Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round): bust
2009 - Ron Brace (2nd round): bust
2008 - Terrence Wheatley (2nd round): bust
2006 - Laurence Maroney (1st round): bust
2004 - Ben Watson (1st round): below average
2003 - Bethel Johnson (2nd round): bust
2002 - Daniel Graham (1st round) : below average
2000 - Adrian Klemm (2nd round): bust

point not made

 

[203Pat]

We are a spoiled-rotten fan base.

We are spoiled because we get crappy players drafted highly every year?

 

[Wordsmyth]

We're spoiled because we've won so much in the last 20 years.

 

[203Pat]

We're spoiled because we've won so much in the last 20 years.

So because we have won so much the last two decades we should be content to lose with a team that seemingly has no plan for the future?

 

[Wordsmyth]

Ughhhh.

Nobody said that.

Lighten up, Francis.

 

[203Pat]

Ughhhh.

Nobody said that.

Lighten up, Francis.

Your logic is poor. Don't get mad at me.

 

[slifersd]

Often forgotten in all of these arguments is the fact that we won, despite a lot of hand wringing, 3 Super Bowls in 5 years during the same period..

There is not doubt that we do not have a lot of "young talent", but BB has always built teams with include that group, along with underutilized veterans and veterans he can "coach up". Some fans want to quantify it's current mediocrity by analyzing draft picks, but every team has hits and misses in the draft... this is not the exclusive venue of the New England Patriots.

Fans praise Miami, but they have had a lot of lower draft picks recently and credit Grier, who has done a good job, but he was the GM since 2016 and only recently have they turned things around. Last year he had picks 5, 18. 30, 39, 56 & 70.. but he traded away some youthful, previous draft capital Fitzpatrick & Tunsil come to mind.


This team would have probably been better, if the Pats brain trust had known about the COVID opt outs & Hernandez/Gordon arbitration, but during FA period they were up against the cap...

As a fan from the early 70's I have no issue with the downturn, expected it sooner or later, and have complete confidence that this team will be rebuilt next year... this is for lack of a better term, a "bridge year". In '21 with about 70 million in cap space, expect this team to look quite a bit different than it does this year...

I don't think there is a single person in the Patriot fan base who is saying GM Belichick is without his merits. You are correct in that he builds his teams through all avenues. But, in the NFL, it is extremely difficult and borderline impossible to build a sustainable winner without drafting at least decently. Even our dynasty 2.0 team was largely built on the backs of Brady, Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, Gronk and other great players we drafted. Matter of fact, I can't think of any super bowl team that won the superbowl without featuring a group of high level players they drafted and retained.

No offense, but using the "every team misses on some draft picks" argument to explain our failures in the draft is just weak. We had not drafted a good WR since Edelman, which was 12 years ago; we have not drafted an adequate skills position player since...Gronk/Hernandez? Our drafts in the last 7 years has produced ZERO franchise changing talent. That is an awful record no matter how you look at it. Sure, other teams also have misses, I have no doubt about that, but name me one team that couldn't at least get a lucky good pick at WR in 12 years. I am not here to bash BB the GM, but simply pointing out that we seem to have a real problem at identifying talent in our drafting process. For example, if our scouting process simply cannot produce good WRs, then we need to either change our process or exclusively acquire WRs through trade or FA. Throwing more draft capital on a few more Harry or Dobson will just be a complete waste of time and resources.

I am not upset about the fact that this has not been a good year for us. After a 20 year run of good football, we are bound to go through a rebuilding period, it happens in every sport. I am more focused on the next step for this team. If we don't iron out the issues that we have within our organization, we are bound to repeat the same mistakes again and again. We do indeed have a path to go back to being a contender, but how quickly do you think BB can take us back to a super bowl if we spend more draft picks on Michel, Harry, Duke Dawson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Jones? I think folks are making the rebuild sound a lot easier than it is. That cap space in 21 seems appealing, but we are going to have to spend a ton of that on a new QB alone. Once we get our QB (think Jimmy G on 25M/yr), we still have to spend on getting better linebackers, receivers, and tight ends at the minimum. In all honesty, 70M might not even be enough to get us all that.

 

[203Pat]

I don't think there is a single person in the Patriot fan base who is saying GM Belichick is without his merits. You are correct in that he builds his teams through all avenues. But, in the NFL, it is extremely difficult and borderline impossible to build a sustainable winner without drafting at least decently. Even our dynasty 2.0 team was largely built on the backs of Brady, Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, Gronk and other great players we drafted. Matter of fact, I can't think of any super bowl team that won the superbowl without featuring a group of high level players they drafted and retained.

No offense, but using the "every team misses on some draft picks" argument to explain our failures in the draft is just weak. We had not drafted a good WR since Edelman, which was 12 years ago; we have not drafted an adequate skills position player since...Gronk/Hernandez? Our drafts in the last 7 years has produced ZERO franchise changing talent. That is an awful record no matter how you look at it. Sure, other teams also have misses, I have no doubt about that, but name me one team that couldn't at least get a lucky good pick at WR in 12 years. I am not here to bash BB the GM, but simply pointing out that we seem to have a real problem at identifying talent in our drafting process. For example, if our scouting process simply cannot produce good WRs, then we need to either change our process or exclusively acquire WRs through trade or FA. Throwing more draft capital on a few more Harry or Dobson will just be a complete waste of time and resources.

I am not upset about the fact that this has not been a good year for us. After a 20 year run of good football, we are bound to go through a rebuilding period, it happens in every sport. I am more focused on the next step for this team. If we don't iron out the issues that we have within our organization, we are bound to repeat the same mistakes again and again. We do indeed have a path to go back to being a contender, but how quickly do you think BB can take us back to a super bowl if we spend more draft picks on Michel, Harry, Duke Dawson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Jones? I think folks are making the rebuild sound a lot easier than it is. That cap space in 21 seems appealing, but we are going to have to spend a ton of that on a new QB alone. Once we get our QB (think Jimmy G on 25M/yr), we still have to spend on getting better linebackers, receivers, and tight ends at the minimum. In all honesty, 70M might not even be enough to get us all that.

I wish I could like this post more than once. By now everyone knows that the 2009 team had some real issues and a retooling was needed. That retooling was done primarily though some home run drafting in 2010 through 2013. Those four drafts provided franchise cornerstones like Gronk, Hightower, and McCourty and then some high end starters and role players like Chandler Jones, Logan Ryan, Jamie Collins, Nate Solder, Duron Harmon, Shane Vereen, Marcus Cannon, Aaron Hernandez, and Nate Ebner. That is a ridiculous haul through four drafts that when paired with the greatest QB of all time, allowed Bill to "rebuild" on the fly.

Bill no longer has the luxury of having a superstar franchise QB that is always willing to move money around for the team. This current rebuild will take significantly longer as the roster is in exponentially worse shape than it was in 09 and also is in desperate need at the most important position in all of sports. Had Belichick not struck out so many times in the draft in the last 6 or so years we in all likelihood, would still have Brady and Bill would be able to find that quarterback of the future knowing that Brady plans to play till 45. Why he was in such a rush to shove Tom out the door with absolutely zero backup plan is beyond me but he has no one to blame but himself.

 

[Boomer B]

I love cherry-picking


2013 - Aaron dobson (2nd round): bust
2012 - Tavon Wilson (2nd round): bust
2011 - Ras-I Dowling (2nd round): bust
2010 - Jermaine Cunningham (2nd round): bust
2009 - Ron Brace (2nd round): bust
2008 - Terrence Wheatley (2nd round): bust
2006 - Laurence Maroney (1st round): bust
2004 - Ben Watson (1st round): below average
2003 - Bethel Johnson (2nd round): bust
2002 - Daniel Graham (1st round) : below average
2000 - Adrian Klemm (2nd round): bust

point not made

You’re the one cherry picking. I did a direct comparison of our first picks made. You cherry picked players who weren’t. There’s a better chance of talent in the early rounds.

You want to look at above average players from 2014 - 2020 vs prior 7 years?

2014-2020 Above Average Standout Players via the Draft

James White
Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason
Joe Thuney

other average to above average players

Isaiah Wynn
Michael Onwenu (could become standout)
Jimmy G
Damien Harris (to early to tell)


2007 - 2014 Above Average Players via the Draft

Jerod Mayo
Matthew Slater
Julian Edelman
Patrick Chung
Sebastian Vollmer
Donte Hightower
Chandler Jones
Gronk
Aaron Hernandez
Devin McCourty
Jamie Collins
Marcus Cannon

other average to above average players
Nate Solder
Logan Ryan
Nate Ebner
Shane Vereen
Duron Harmon

Pretty clear to see that we had much better drafts prior to 2013.

 

[captain stone]

I'm not sure if IC is being facetious, because showing those other 1st- and 2nd-round picks is kinda making our argument for us...

 

[203Pat]

You’re the one cherry picking. I did a direct comparison of our first picks made. You cherry picked players who weren’t. There’s a better chance of talent in the early rounds.

You want to look at above average players from 2014 - 2020 vs prior 7 years?

2014-2020 Above Average Standout Players via the Draft

James White
Trey Flowers
Shaq Mason
Joe Thuney

other average to above average players

Isaiah Wynn
Michael Onwenu (could become standout)
Jimmy G
Damien Harris (to early to tell)


2007 - 2014 Above Average Players via the Draft

Jerod Mayo
Matthew Slater
Julian Edelman
Patrick Chung
Sebastian Vollmer
Donte Hightower
Chandler Jones
Gronk
Aaron Hernandez
Devin McCourty
Jamie Collins
Marcus Cannon

other average to above average players
Nate Solder
Logan Ryan
Nate Ebner
Shane Vereen
Duron Harmon

Pretty clear to see that we had much better drafts prior to 2013.

So in 7 years of drafts you're okay with two above average guards, a D-lineman we let walk, and a passing back?

 

[Boomer B]

So in 7 years of drafts you're okay with two above average guards, a D-lineman we let walk, and a passing back?

That was the point of the post. The past 7 years haven’t been close to good enough. The only position we draft well is OL. From the years 07-13 we hit on a lot of draft picks including upper echelon guys like Gronk, Jones, Hightower, etc..