Patriots / Brady Discussion

[maineman209]

The more sustained commitments to the run have been good, but the offense was clearly more lethal last year in the red zone.

Red Zone Passing:
... 2016 45/65, 20 TD, 1 INT
... 2017 56/90, 26 TD, 0 INT

Red Zone Rushing:
... 2016 = 71/176 yds, 16 TDs (Blount)
... 2017 = 76/230 yds, 16 TDs (Gillislee, Burkhead, Lewis combined)

Red Zone Scoring percentage (TD only):
... 2016 = 64%
... 2017 = 60%

 

[luuked]

But here's a thought. Both those defenses had large gaps on the defensive side, yet were remarkable in their ability to create turn overs.

Think about this for a second. In the 2011 superbowl that historically bad defense caused 4 Giant fumbles. The only one they recovered was wiped out due to a penalty. If they had recovered just one of them, there would be a 6th Lombardi at the Pats HOF today.

So the question is what were they doing so differently then that caused those TO's. OR....are turn overs simply random and are mostly just lucky bounces of the ball and deflection that for some reason wind up in your hands.

To me this is fairly easy to say. They were playing a lot more zone and a lot more aggressive which on the one hand opens you up for more big plays allowed but also increases the chance for turnovers.

I think you are looking at the turnovers from the wrong angle. We should actually be happy that we have the 2017 stats with a below average amount of turnovers because this means that the defense is not as dependent on producing and recovering them as 2010 and 2011 were.

Back then recovering them was essential to have a shot in the game. This year they are the cherry on top to the point where we can even win with negative turnover differentials.

Now I am not saying that having a lot of turnovers is a bad thing but it is something that could potentially mask flaws in your defense that only show up in games where you can't steal possessions.

 

[luuked]

Since you just joined Friday, you may not have read all the way through the several threads discussing Cooks, Dorsett and Allen and seen the scores of posts from me and from others attempting to offer a different point of view to those who have claimed that they "aren't any good" - which is certainly far from "everyone".

So, I'll expand the context for you here a bit ...

Neither Dorsett nor Cooks were particularly accomplished at intermediate-range routes when they got to the Pats. Through OTAs and Camp, it seems likely that the education/integration of Cooks in the Pats system didn't focus much on those intermediate routes since the Pats were still expecting Edelman and Mitchell to be available. By the time they were injured, it was too late to effectively change gears on that course of study for Cooks. Dorsett (like any WR the Pats might've been able to affordably acquire at the last minute) didn't even have any education in the Pats system from OTAs or Camp.

While Allen was more of an intermediate-range/outlet target in Indy, his catch rate wasn't consistently outstanding there and has been its worst with the Pats this season (10 of 22 tgts, 45.5%). However, I think that several of those incompletions have been close to completions - just a tad off on the timing or positioning or the sight-adjustment from Allen.

While it seems likely to me that both Cooks and Dorsett have at least tried to find ways to work on intermediate routes on their own time, and that Allen has likely been working on improving his route-running, actual practice during the season is all about that week's gameplan - and the gameplan is built around what McD and Brady KNOW that these players can do with consistent success. Anything else would seem foolish to me, frankly.

So, it's not that "Brady is ignoring" Allen or Dorsett (over 60% of Dorsett's 194 yards have come from 4 chunk plays - it's what he's good at), it's the gameplan that's "ignoring" them - in the sense that they're Brady's 3rd, 4th or 5th reads on nearly all plays where they're in the pass pattern. Brady just doesn't get to those later reads very often - because he's that good and the guys who are Brady's typical 1st and 2nd reads are that good.



Just because one pass to Dorsett or Allen, or one (major surprise) screen to Gillislee works that one time, does NOT mean "it's working!" in any full time sense. It doesn't mean that either Dorsett or Allen have mastered a number of different reads and routes and are being "left out" only for some arbitrary reason. It doesn't mean that the screen game is suddenly working after sucking all season (for a lot more teams than just the Pats this year, btw).

It simply means that those specific plays were executed in practice consistently enough to be used in the game.



No, I've never noticed that all the other All-Pro QBs have no issue successfully breaking in new WRs EVERY year. Because it doesn't happen. Every 3-4 years, maybe. In between those successes, though, there have been numerous failures - for all those QBs. So, "no problems"? You're dreaming.

In any case, that's an apples-to-oranges comparison since those offenses are different from Pats offense - and from each other. And the strengths and weaknesses and preferences and tendencies of those QBs and OCs are different form each other and from the Pats. Even the Saints offense, which uses similar "levels concepts" and a similarly abbreviated verbiage for play calls at the line isn't identical to the the Pats offense, and neither are their players. There's nothing whatsoever about any of this that's a "one-size-fits-all" deal.



For all the complaints about "Brady ignoring" certain pass-catchers and McD "calling too many deep throws", Brady finished with ...
- a 66.3 completion % = 3rd highest of his career, behind only 2007 (68.9%) and 2016 (67.4%)
- 4577 yards = almost 600 more than in 2014 with one less completion
- only one fewer TD passes than in 2014 (32 v. 33)
- 30 more passing yards per game than in 2014

As far as a "Plan B" goes, you've been watching it unfold all season long - with 13 wins and the #1 seed. That is the "real deal".

It's not as if everything has fallen apart without Edelman, Mitchell and Bennett (or Hogan. It seems to me that McD has been doing at least a few things right.

That was a nice "Previously on PatsFans.com"-esque summary..

 

[Mountain_Commando]

5 things that killed the 2010 Pats

1. Horrible 3rd down D. Crappy all year
2. Horrible red zone D. Crappy all year
3. Lack of an outside threat. Jets flooded the middle intermediate
4. Too dependent on forcing TOs.
5. Tom did not have a great game.

I'd add that the 2010 team relied considerably on Gronk, AHern, McCourty, and Brandon Spikes...all of whom were rookies and had 0 playoff experience.

Plus I'm convinced Brady was sick that game. He was all cloaked up like The Phantom, had a drugged-up/zoned-out look, and I still have that image of him blowing a massive snot bomb on live TV before the game start. Ugh.

 

[maineman209]

Yes, we are talking about Brady and him blaming his center for a supposed bad snap down in Atlanta, when he pulled back too quick and said "we need to work on that".

"We need to work on that" isn't "blaming the center". It's acknowledging that a botched exchange is on both of them. It's why both the QB and the center run a lap when they screw one up in practice.

I am talking about in games where the offenses disappears for long stretches.... It just happened for 6 straight games to end the season ...

Depends on what you mean by "long stretches" and which "6 straight games". Are you referring to week-16 against the Bills when they scored on 8 of their 10 drives? Perhaps week-15, when the scored on 2 of 3 in the first half, but only 3 of 5 in the second half? No? Then, probably week-12 when the got 3 TDs in 5 first half possessions to go up 21-10 and then coast in the second half with only 2 TDs in 6 possessions?

Brady has been protected by Reiss for years and years ...

Now THAT is news to me.

 

[Ian]

All true, but I also see Brady ignoring Allen and Dorsett like they have a disease and then everyone runs around claiming they aren't any good. Well, if he doesn't throw to them, how do we know?

It's stuff like that, which is what I am talking about here. Ever notice, the other All Pro QBs don't have such an issue breaking in new receivers every year? Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Stafford, Big Ben, etc...No problems.

I disagree with where you're going with this. The one thing you don't take into account when you mention Rodgers, Brees, etc. is the fact that none of those offenses require the same depth of pre-snap analysis by the wideouts that New England does, along with the fact precision and depth of the route based off of those reads are part of it as well. So if you're going to compare Brady to other quarterbacks when it comes to receiver play (and overall career succces), count the number of times they've been in the AFC/NFC Championship appearances, Super Bowl titles by comparison and realize the required level of play is higher here - hence the reason why it takes a few tries to find guys who can stick.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Brady's mistake there wasn't the throw itself imo. His mistake was hesitating giving the safety (Phillips) time to make the read and shift Welker's way. The throw had to be the more difficult one to the back shoulder where it was or Welker would have been blown up and probably lost a fumble.

Exactly, that ball goes to Welker's right shoulder and he gets destroyed.

Though he should have realized that himself and thus know the ball would be going to his other shoulder.

 

[Ian]

Hey sb1.
You might be interested to know that the “fact” you were told is indisputable is in fact 100% WRONG.

Brady int %
01-06. 2.55

07-12 1.55

It didn’t rise it was cut down by about 40%.

I didn't realize "skyrocket" was a relative term

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't realize "skyrocket" was a relative term

It’s not but it’s a relative direction.
Things that decrease generally aren’t considered skyrocketing.

 

[Ian]

It’s not but it’s a relative direction.
Things that decrease generally aren’t considered skyrocketing.

Or I usually expect a huge change from the previous total - which doesn't seem to be the case with the point in question.

 

[Ring 6]

I disagree with where you're going with this. The one thing you don't take into account when you mention Rodgers, Brees, etc. is the fact that none of those offenses require the same depth of pre-snap analysis by the wideouts that New England does, along with the fact precision and depth of the route based off of those reads are part of it as well. So if you're going to compare Brady to other quarterbacks when it comes to receiver play, count the number of times they've been in the AFC/NFC Championship appearances, Super Bowl titles by comparison and realize the required level of play is higher here - hence the reason why it takes a few tries to find guys who can stick.

We could also note how moss, Welker, Caldwell, Lloyd, Mitchell, cooks, Bennett to name a few adapted quite well to brady while none of the receivers who didn’t went on to do any better anywhere else.

 

[Ring 6]

Or I usually expect a huge change from the previous total - which doesn't seem to be the case with the point in question.

Yeah. My point was the claim was his Int rate increased dramatically when in fact in dropped almost in half.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Red Zone Passing:
... 2016 45/65, 20 TD, 1 INT
... 2017 56/90, 26 TD, 0 INT

Red Zone Rushing:
... 2016 = 71/176 yds, 16 TDs (Blount)
... 2017 = 76/230 yds, 16 TDs (Gillislee, Burkhead, Lewis combined)

Red Zone Scoring percentage (TD only):
... 2016 = 64%
... 2017 = 60%

@Chris Stevenson as @The Gr8est told me during my first week on this board, yer gonna have to step yer game up if you wanna stick around here! ;-)

 

[Ian]

And I don't mean to be sarcastic, but I'm just surprised at some of the reasoning. Brady has had his moments this season where he's struggled, but as I've mentioned, injury factored far more into that - in my opinion - than any potential drop off in skill or loss of ability. He'll get the benefit of the doubt until he's healthy and starts making bad decisions consistently and "dumb throws" begin to occur. I'm not saying he's untouchable, but it's hard to just throw some of these things out there without proper context.

I will give @Chris Stevenson credit - at least you're putting forth a reasonable effort to try and provide detailed reasons why you feel that way to make your point, even if some of us disagree. But obviously you're skating into some tough territory, so you'll need to maintain some thick skin as you continue trying to express these views.

 

[Ring 6]

And I don't mean to be sarcastic, but I'm just surprised at some of the reasoning. Brady has had his moments this season where he's struggled, but as I've mentioned, injury factored far more into that - in my opinion - than any potential drop off in skill or loss of ability. He'll get the benefit of the doubt until he's healthy and starts making bad decisions consistently and "dumb throws" begin to occur. I'm not saying he's untouchable, but it's hard to just throw some of these things out there without proper context.

I will give @Chris Stevenson credit - at least you're putting forth a reasonable effort to try and provide detailed reasons why you feel that way to make your point, even if some of us disagree. But obviously you're skating into some tough territory, so you'll need to maintain some thick skin as you continue trying to express these views.

Oh it’s not just this year, he pretty much has ripped Brady’s entire career today.

 

[Ring 6]

@Chris Stevenson as @The Gr8est told me during my first week on this board, yer gonna have to step yer game up if you wanna stick around here! ;-)

Is that who he used to be? Makes sense.

 

[Ian]

Oh it’s not just this year, he pretty much has ripped Brady’s entire career today.

I haven't reviewed that far back. Judging by your comment - I may not want to.

 

[Joker]

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

The Patriots, under BB, Kraft w/TB, has never been based on "Stats".
Jeez, I HATE stats.

The Pats don't recruit based on Draft status.

A lot of teams have one, maybe 2 big play makers.
When they are hurt, suspended...etc, They are a limping dog.

BB spreads it out.
Another teams discarded, "non essential" , good players are welcome here. Depth!!

Guys like Allen, Dorsett (and co.) do much more than catch the ball. : Block, pull coverage, decoys... Nobody has the patience and work ethic that BB does.
Everyone on the roster has a crucial purpose.

TB has/does more for this team than any other QB I've ever witnessed.
Selfless, dedicated, all in.

To compare or question what this team does, or has done, within the current FA structure, is not paying attention.

I've had several Cowpie fans tell me "Romo had a better QBR than TB, in 2014". LOL!!!
This weekend was a perfect example.
Stats...

The Pats won't win the Lombardi every year.

But it's obvious, it's working.

TB doesn't care about stats.
TB is a member of a TEAM.

The eye test. The ring is the thing!!!
...And here he is, knocking on the door AGAIN!!

But, everyone has an opinion.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I'm not convinced Brady has trouble adapting to WRs. Brady's QB career is notable for its lack of continuity outside of his control. With most other greats you name the QB you can name the receivers.

Bradshaw- Stallworth (10 years together), Swann (9 years)
Montana- Clark (8 years) and Rice (6 years)
Manning- Wayne (10 years) and Harrison (11 years)
*counting playing years, for instance Montana's time injured is not counted.

Not that they played their whole career with them but significant parts. Brady had Branch for 4 years, Welker for 5 years, Moss for two. Edelman is the longest running guy and he's only had 3 1/2 years in the starting line up.

Another difference- Swann is first rounder, Rice is a first rounder, both Harrison and Wayne are first rounders.

The Patriots have picked exactly zero first round WRs in the BB era (I think the only team not to select a 1st round WR in that time). The closest was this year with Cooks in a trade and he put up over 1000 yards.

So in the laundry list of late picks and cast-offs that have gone through Gilette is Brady worse at making them productive? I'm not sure, I know he's put together more MVP level seasons than anyone playing today with those guys.