Future Extension for Cooks

[supafly]

There’s really no use discussing a long term market deal until after next season, which by their usual practices for a WR, are paying handsomely for. That’s one of the reasons why they picked up the fifth year option—to give them a longer look and a better return on their investment. There’s absolutely no reason to try and make that assessment at this point in time.

He came in here during his first year and produced, even if he also showed some weaknesses. They had to adjust on the fly with the preseason losses of Edelman and Mitchell, so that’s one aspect to consider.

As of today, he’s not worth the types of deals that guys like Adams just received, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t show up as an improved receiver with some of those weaknesses shored up next season and make this discussion more worthwhile. He’s got a strong work ethic, excellent conditioning, youth, and a stronger stable of surrounding WRs who will be returning in his favor. I don’t know why people wouldn’t expect an improvement for 2018.

In the meantime, if he takes a longer term deal at around 10m per year because he wants some security now, that’s fine too. I just don’t think it will work that way. I’m guessing that he’s good with waiting another year and trying to build upon his first year Patriots campaign.

 

[maineman209]

He is going to want, and somebody will probably be dumb enough to give him DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams money. It’s not about burying him, The Pats are just not going to offer him that kind of money. They might offer him 5 year 50 million but he won’t take that.

For context ...

COOKS - age 24 - production so far ($8.46M cap hit in 2018):
... 4 seasons ... 57 games
... 3,943 yds (68 yds/game) + 27 TDs (6.8/season)
... ypc = 14.1 ... catch rate = 65.2%

Recent contract extensions reflecting 2017-2018 WR market (so far):

HOPKINS - production before signing extension at age 25
... 4 seasons ... 64 games
... 4,487 (70 yds/game) + 23 TDs (5.8/season)
... ypc = 14.2 ... catch rate = 56.5%
- Signed 5-year extension at $16.2M APY thru 2022 (age 30), with $36.5M fully guaranteed.

ADAMS - production before signing extension at age 25
... 4 seasons ... 59 games
... 2,811 yds (48 yds/game) + 26 TDs (6.5/season)
... ypc = 11.9 ... catch rate = 59.5%
- Signed 4-year extension at $14.5M APY thru 2021 (age 29), with $18.0M fully guaranteed.

JEFFREY - production before signing extension at age 27
... 6 seasons ... 79 games ... (hadn't finished 2017 yet)
... 5,338 yds (68 yds/game) + 35 TDs (5.8/season)
... ypc = 14.8 ... catch rate = 55.6%
- Signed 4-year extension at $13M APY thru 2021 (age 31), with $14.25M fully guaranteed.

BROWN - production before signing extension at age 28
... 6 seasons ... 101 games
... 8,377 yds (83 yds/game) + 50 TDs (8.3/season)
... ypc = 13.3 ... catch rate = 69%
- Signed 5-year extension at $17M APY thru 2021 (age 33), with $19.0M fully guaranteed.

Other WR contracts expiring at the end of 2018 (same as Cooks):
(with cap limit likely to increase to $188M for 2019, future WR deals are equally likely to be even larger)

- Amari Cooper (OAK) ... age 24 ... $5.7M APY, $22.6M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 21
(rookie deal - 5th-year option for 2019 at $7.2M still pending)
--- production so far:
... 3 seasons ... 46 games
... 2,903 yds (63 yds/game) + 18 TDs (6.0/season)
... ypc = 14.3 ... catch rate = 56.7%

- Mike Evans (TBY) ... age 25 ... $3.7M APY, $14.6M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 21
(rookie deal - 5th year option of $13.3M for 2018 was picked up by TBY)
--- production so far:
... 4 seasons ... 61 games
... 4,579 yds (75 yds/game) + 32 TDs (8.0/season)
... ypc = 14.8 ... catch rate = 53.4%

- CHRIS HOGAN
- Fitzgerald (ARZ) ... age 35 ... $11.0M APY, $22M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 33
- Cobb (GBY) ... age 28 ... $10.0M APY, $13M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 25
- Nelson (GBY) ... age 33 ... $9.8M APY, $11.5M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 29
- Golden Tate (DET) ... age 30 ... $6.2M APY, $10.5M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 26
- Marcus Wheaton (CHI), Jeremy Maclin (BAL), Jermaine Kearse (NYJ), Kevin White (CHI)

Some 2018 WR free agents:
- Terelle Pryor (WAS), Mike Wallace (BAL), Sammy Watkins (Rams), Eric Decker (TEN)

 

[RobertWeathers]

Cooks lacks the courage to go over middle. He prefers to play outside the numbers. Nothing wrong with that as long as you realize he is a low courage player and design plays (like we have) for him to run just part of the route tree.

Branch, on the other hand, ran the whole route tree and he and Brady saw defensive alignment exactly the same.

He doesn't have the courage....


You know this how?

 

[RobertWeathers]

There’s really no use discussing a long term market deal until after next season, which by their usual practices for a WR, are paying handsomely for. That’s one of the reasons why they picked up the fifth year option—to give them a longer look and a better return on their investment. There’s absolutely no reason to try and make that assessment at this point in time.

He came in here during his first year and produced, even if he also showed some weaknesses. They had to adjust on the fly with the preseason losses of Edelman and Mitchell, so that’s one aspect to consider.

As of today, he’s not worth the types of deals that guys like Adams just received, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t show up as an improved receiver with some of those weaknesses shored up next season and make this discussion more worthwhile. He’s got a strong work ethic, excellent conditioning, youth, and a stronger stable of surrounding WRs who will be returning in his favor. I don’t know why people wouldn’t expect an improvement for 2018.

In the meantime, if he takes a longer term deal at around 10m per year because he wants some security now, that’s fine too. I just don’t think it will work that way. I’m guessing that he’s good with waiting another year and trying to build upon his first year Patriots campaign.

That's where I am on this. I'm a fan of Cooks but to make him this highest paid WR is not something I would do at this point.

I need to see a little more production and more mastery of the position in this offense to shell out big bucks for him.

With that said if he's willing to be paid a team friendly deal that offers immediate security with incentives that get him to top 10 or top 5 that might be something to explore.

 

[maineman209]

Cooks lacks the courage to go over middle. He prefers to play outside the numbers. Nothing wrong with that as long as you realize he is a low courage player and design plays (like we have) for him to run just part of the route tree.

Branch, on the other hand, ran the whole route tree and he and Brady saw defensive alignment exactly the same.

Deion Branch - 1st season, 2002:
... 13 games, 489 yds (37.6 yds/game) +2 TDs
... 43 rec/68 tgts (63.2% catch rate) ... ypc = 11.4

Deion Branch - 2nd season, 2003:
... 15 games, 803 yds (53.5 yds/game) +3 TDs
... 57 rec/104 tgts (54.8% catch rate) ... ypc 14.1

COOKS - 1st season (NOL), 2014:
... 10 games, 550 yds (55 yds/game) + 3 TDs
... 53 rec/69 tgts (76.8% catch rate) ... ypc = 10.4

COOKS - 1st season with Brady, 2017:
... 16 games, 1082 yds (67.6 yds/game) + 7 TDs
... 65 rec/114 tgts (57% catch rate) ... ypc = 16.6

 

[RobertWeathers]

For context ...

COOKS - age 24 - production so far ($8.46M cap hit in 2018):
... 4 seasons ... 57 games
... 3,943 yds (68 yds/game) + 27 TDs (6.8/season)
... ypc = 14.1 ... catch rate = 65.2%

Recent contract extensions reflecting 2017-2018 WR market (so far):

HOPKINS - production before signing extension at age 25
... 4 seasons ... 64 games
... 4,487 (70 yds/game) + 23 TDs (5.8/season)
... ypc = 14.2 ... catch rate = 56.5%
- Signed 5-year extension at $16.2M APY thru 2022 (age 30), with $36.5M fully guaranteed.

ADAMS - production before signing extension at age 25
... 4 seasons ... 59 games
... 2,811 yds (48 yds/game) + 26 TDs (6.5/season)
... ypc = 11.9 ... catch rate = 59.5%
- Signed 4-year extension at $14.5M APY thru 2021 (age 29), with $18.0M fully guaranteed.

JEFFREY - production before signing extension at age 27
... 6 seasons ... 79 games ... (hadn't finished 2017 yet)
... 5,338 yds (68 yds/game) + 35 TDs (5.8/season)
... ypc = 14.8 ... catch rate = 55.6%
- Signed 4-year extension at $13M APY thru 2021 (age 31), with $14.25M fully guaranteed.

BROWN - production before signing extension at age 28
... 6 seasons ... 101 games
... 8,377 yds (83 yds/game) + 50 TDs (8.3/season)
... ypc = 13.3 ... catch rate = 69%
- Signed 5-year extension at $17M APY thru 2021 (age 33), with $19.0M fully guaranteed.

Other WR contracts expiring at the end of 2018 (same as Cooks):
(with cap limit likely to increase to $188M for 2019, future WR deals are equally likely to be even larger)

- Amari Cooper (OAK) ... age 24 ... $5.7M APY, $22.6M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 21
(rookie deal - 5th-year option for 2019 at $7.2M still pending)
--- production so far:
... 3 seasons ... 46 games
... 2,903 yds (63 yds/game) + 18 TDs (6.0/season)
... ypc = 14.3 ... catch rate = 56.7%

- Mike Evans (TBY) ... age 25 ... $3.7M APY, $14.6M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 21
(rookie deal - 5th year option of $13.3M for 2018 was picked up by TBY)
--- production so far:
... 4 seasons ... 61 games
... 4,579 yds (75 yds/game) + 32 TDs (8.0/season)
... ypc = 14.8 ... catch rate = 53.4%

- CHRIS HOGAN
- Fitzgerald (ARZ) ... age 35 ... $11.0M APY, $22M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 33
- Cobb (GBY) ... age 28 ... $10.0M APY, $13M fully guaranteed - signed 2015 at age 25
- Nelson (GBY) ... age 33 ... $9.8M APY, $11.5M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 29
- Golden Tate (DET) ... age 30 ... $6.2M APY, $10.5M fully guaranteed - signed 2014 at age 26
- Marcus Wheaton (CHI), Jeremy Maclin (BAL), Jermaine Kearse (NYJ), Kevin White (CHI)

Some 2018 WR free agents:
- Terelle Pryor (WAS), Mike Wallace (BAL), Sammy Watkins (Rams), Eric Decker (TEN)

Boy Pryor was a total washout for the Skins

 

[Ring 6]

There’s really no use discussing a long term market deal until after next season, which by their usual practices for a WR, are paying handsomely for. That’s one of the reasons why they picked up the fifth year option—to give them a longer look and a better return on their investment. There’s absolutely no reason to try and make that assessment at this point in time.

He came in here during his first year and produced, even if he also showed some weaknesses. They had to adjust on the fly with the preseason losses of Edelman and Mitchell, so that’s one aspect to consider.

As of today, he’s not worth the types of deals that guys like Adams just received, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t show up as an improved receiver with some of those weaknesses shored up next season and make this discussion more worthwhile. He’s got a strong work ethic, excellent conditioning, youth, and a stronger stable of surrounding WRs who will be returning in his favor. I don’t know why people wouldn’t expect an improvement for 2018.

In the meantime, if he takes a longer term deal at around 10m per year because he wants some security now, that’s fine too. I just don’t think it will work that way. I’m guessing that he’s good with waiting another year and trying to build upon his first year Patriots campaign.

He is better than Davante Adams.

 

[maineman209]

Boy Pryor was a total washout for the Skins

Went on IR after 9 games with an ankle injury that he'd played through since week-2 (that ultimately required surgery). Still ended up as their 6th most targeted pass-catcher on the season.

Caught 20 of 37 for 240 yds and 1 TD in those 9 games.
... 54.1% catch rate, 12.0 ypc

Definitely NOT a good deal for $6M.

OTOH, at 6044/240, and after a season in which he caught 77/140 (55%) for 1007 yds (13.1 ypc) and 4 TDs with Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and RGII throwing the ball at him, I can see why the Skins took the chance.

He's bigger than Britt and even Jake Hollister, and has a better catch rate than either. Even at age 29 and coming off ankle surgery, I could see some team snagging him for a couple mil on another 1-year prove-it, at least for an off-season look.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

He is better than Davante Adams.

The market for WRers is rediculous.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Went on IR after 9 games with an ankle injury that he'd played through since week-2 (that ultimately required surgery). Still ended up as their 6th most targeted pass-catcher on the season.

Caught 20 of 37 for 240 yds and 1 TD in those 9 games.
... 54.1% catch rate, 12.0 ypc

Definitely NOT a good deal for $6M.

OTOH, at 6044/240, and after a season in which he caught 77/140 (55%) for 1007 yds (13.1 ypc) and 4 TDs with Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and RGII throwing the ball at him, I can see why the Skins took the chance.

He's bigger than Britt and even Jake Hollister, and has a better catch rate than either. Even at age 29 and coming off ankle surgery, I could see some team snagging him for a couple mil on another 1-year prove-it, at least for an off-season look.

Pats had him here too..

 

[maineman209]

The market for WRers is rediculous.

It is what it is.

The sad fact facing the Pats is that they might be able to sign Cooks to an extension this spring for around $13M APY and $20M guaranteed. Relative to the cap, that's about what Moss got back in 2007. However, if Cooks even just matches his 2017 production in 2018, he's likely gone elsewhere for $16M+ in 2019.

While $13M seems outrageously high right now, by the end of a 5-year contract, inflation may make that look like a steal.

It all depends on what the coaches see with him that we can't.

 

[Ring 6]

Went on IR after 9 games with an ankle injury that he'd played through since week-2 (that ultimately required surgery). Still ended up as their 6th most targeted pass-catcher on the season.

Caught 20 of 37 for 240 yds and 1 TD in those 9 games.
... 54.1% catch rate, 12.0 ypc

Definitely NOT a good deal for $6M.

OTOH, at 6044/240, and after a season in which he caught 77/140 (55%) for 1007 yds (13.1 ypc) and 4 TDs with Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and RGII throwing the ball at him, I can see why the Skins took the chance.

He's bigger than Britt and even Jake Hollister, and has a better catch rate than either. Even at age 29 and coming off ankle surgery, I could see some team snagging him for a couple mil on another 1-year prove-it, at least for an off-season look.

I can think of one that would be creative with using him.

 

[maineman209]

Pats had him here too..

Yeah, I vaguely recall that the Pats had him in for a workout or something. That was during the 2015 off-season (shortly after he'd announced his switch to WR), right?

 

[PWRxWLF]

Pretty damn good production if you ask me for a guy who is option #3 when Edelman is healthy. What the organization is gonna have to figure out is exactly how much are they willing to spend for a #3 receiver. This offense as it currently stands runs through the Slot, TE, WR’s/RB’s depending on pre-snap read. I understand why he gets hate thrown his way (doesn’t high point the ball, doesn’t lay out for catches, would rather go down than take a hit and get extra yards) but the man is a threat that must always be accounted for which makes it easier for the offense to run through the Slot & TE. Pay the guy, don’t pay the guy, I’m sure it’ll be a good decision that’ll work out either way. Go into the draft/FA and get a new Slot guy, draft a Joker TE to compete with Hollister and Allen, and get some LB’s. See how Cooks does in year 2 and decide with a healthy O, and decide from there.

 

[kennyb]

I don't think he's all that special. Other teams overpay wr's for some reason, i think belichick is too smart for that.

I think part of why the pats wanted cooks so badly is they saw how he abused butler in scrimmages. But that's more a reflection on butler.

Cooks isnt't good at contested catches downfield for one thing. I'm a fan but not at 10m/year.

 

[Real World]

Maybe my expectations were too high, but I've been a little underwhelmed by Cooks. When I talk to other Patriots fans about Cooks a lot of them feel the same way. That while he's a really good WR, we sort of expected more, or maybe, thought he was a more dynamic player. I hope he sticks around long term, but I wouldn't break the bank for him. As someone said earlier, the Patriots run through the slot/TE. If the price isn't crippling then extend. If it is and the team moves on, I'll be ok with their decision. While he certainly hasn't looked it so far, I do wonder if Dorsett could be a Cooks type of player with a full offseason under his belt. Probably not, but who knows. He's got the physical tools to be, but that matters little if you don't understand the offense all that well.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

I don't think he's all that special. Other teams overpay wr's for some reason, i think belichick is too smart for that.

I think part of why the pats wanted cooks so badly is they saw how he abused butler in scrimmages. But that's more a reflection on butler.

Cooks isnt't good at contested catches downfield for one thing. I'm a fan but not at 10m/year.

The reality is that he'll probably get a lot more than $10Mil/year on the open market - its just crazy

 

[PP2]

I think he meant cooks doesnt extend his arms enough

Cooks lacks the courage to go over middle. He prefers to play outside the numbers.

These statements are patently false.

Please post any clips that shows Cooks doing either- I'm waiting.

 

[captain stone]

Cooks was practically invisible last week, and is almost guaranteed to be invisible this week too. He fears contact, as clearly demonstrated by his complete unwillingness to compete for contested catches, and he finds cold weather too uncomfortable for his sensibilities. His only redeeming value will be that of a glorified decoy to hopefully draw double-coverage, though I suspect that will not last very long when the opponent discovers that he doesn't deserve even quality single coverage.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

You saying someone" is dumb enough " shows your bias against Cooks.

I am looking at the value he is likely to earn when he hits free agency relative to his productivity and contributions as a Patriot (which is good, but not Gronk-like). Its not that I'm biased as you say, just being realistic.

Let's not pretend that WR'ers inferior to Cooks are making insane money (See Devante Adams) and be afraid to call them out as being "dumb", or worse.