Bill Barnwell's five things the Patriots need to do to improve

[maineman209]

It also might have something to do with Chandler's decision to float right into the Foxborough police station. Bill wasn't going to break even a piggy bank for him at that point forward.

Hmmm .... I've floated through a couple cop shops in my day, and nobody has ever broken the bank for me.

You might be on to something there.

 

[sean10mm]

4 out of the 5 things should be "upgrade the front 7," with 1 "keep a good OL in front of Brady" to round it out.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Of the 3 players mentioned, I feel extending Cooks is most beneficial right now. We want to lock him up before his value skyrockets too much. And doing his extension properly will lower his cap hit for next year as well. A WR corps that features healthy Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, and Gronk will be as much firepower as Brady needs to have another MVP caliber offensive season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

So cut a bunch of guys who made too much last year then throw all that money at long term extensions for a bunch of guys who aren't even entering free agency. This kind of cap strategy is what lands teams in cap hell, and the Pats' refusal to operate in this way is a huge part of why they've been Super Bowl contenders for the better part of two straight decades.

That said, I don't really disagree with most of this, at least in the broad strokes of it. Picking up Brown's option is basically a no-brainer considering what else the Pats have as alternatives. I agree that signing him to a long-term deal is pretty much a coin flip at this point; he's an asset, and worth keeping around long term at the right price, but he's not the kind of instrumental guy that you make your top priority or place much of a premium on. Extending Mason and Flowers is ideal: both are young, key players who are very good at what they do, have flown under the radar a bit so far, and might be signable at a reasonable price. I dunno if it's realistic to extend everyone this offseason, but Mason and Flowers are exactly the kind of guys you want to keep around long term even if you have to pay a bit more than you'd ideally like to pay.

But I'm really not sure re: Cooks. He's a very good WR, but I wouldn't give him top-10 receiver money; that kind of cash is better spent elsewhere IMO. He's not a guy who dramatically changes the complexion of the game just by being on the field, in the way that the absolute top tier guys do, and as a general rule I hate the idea of paying top tier money for guys who don't meet that standard. Then again, I probably wouldn't have traded a first rounder for Cooks in the first place, so I think it's pretty clear my understanding of his value is not in line with Belichick's.

 

[maineman209]

So cut a bunch of guys who made too much last year then throw all that money at long term extensions for a bunch of guys who aren't even entering free agency. This kind of cap strategy is what lands teams in cap hell, and the Pats' refusal to operate in this way is a huge part of why they've been Super Bowl contenders for the better part of two straight decades.

That said, I don't really disagree with most of this, at least in the broad strokes of it. Picking up Brown's option is basically a no-brainer considering what else the Pats have as alternatives. I agree that signing him to a long-term deal is pretty much a coin flip at this point; he's an asset, and worth keeping around long term at the right price, but he's not the kind of instrumental guy that you make your top priority or place much of a premium on. Extending Mason and Flowers is ideal: both are young, key players who are very good at what they do, have flown under the radar a bit so far, and might be signable at a reasonable price. I dunno if it's realistic to extend everyone this offseason, but Mason and Flowers are exactly the kind of guys you want to keep around long term even if you have to pay a bit more than you'd ideally like to pay.

But I'm really not sure re: Cooks. He's a very good WR, but I wouldn't give him top-10 receiver money; that kind of cash is better spent elsewhere IMO. He's not a guy who dramatically changes the complexion of the game just by being on the field, in the way that the absolute top tier guys do, and as a general rule I hate the idea of paying top tier money for guys who don't meet that standard. Then again, I probably wouldn't have traded a first rounder for Cooks in the first place, so I think it's pretty clear my understanding of his value is not in line with Belichick's.

Top-10 WR money for 2018 is currently runs from $12.7M up to $17.7M. For 2019, it's $13.2 to $18.9M.

That's so far. With the way things have gone with Alshon Jeffrey and Davante Adams already (neither even close to Cooks' production over the past four seasons), and with a couple-three high-end UFA WR contracts, and long term extensions for a couple-three more, including Mike Evans and OBJ, the bottom of the Top-10 range is very likely to jump up to ~$15M.

All of those new, higher-priced contracts are going to WRs between the ages of 25-27. In that group, Cooks has the fifth-highest total production over the past four seasons. The Pats may not pay Cooks in that $15M+ (AAV) range, but someone else in the market is very likely to.

Not that they should, but if the Pats were to get him to sign a 5-year extension now, they might get him on an AAV that would be Top-10 ... for 2018 (as it stands). However, that might be out of the Top-15 by 2019 and out of the Top-20 by 2020 - and looking like they stole him.