#1 WR? Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo anyone?

[RobertWeathers]

Is Aiyuk a #1 WR?

Based on what... production?

Nobody can tell me what a #1 receiver is... so it's confusing.

I'm not sure KJ Osborn in Shanahan's system with Purdy throwing the ball doesn't put up similar numbers.

A #1 WR can dominate every week regardless of the CB or defense they are facing. They can also put up numbers with middling QBs.

Aiyuk is a helluva WR and young. Great route-runner. Is he in THAT category? Not sure.

I'd love for the Pats to get him but concerned about $ and the ROI if a guy like Brissett is throwing 120 targets his way.

 

[Wozzy]

A #1 WR can dominate every week regardless of the CB or defense they are facing. They can also put up numbers with middling QBs.

Aiyuk is a helluva WR and young. Great route-runner. Is he in THAT category? Not sure.

I'd love for the Pats to get him but concerned about $ and the ROI if a guy like Brissett is throwing 120 targets his way.

Tyreek Hill pretty much got shut down last season by a rookie CB in Gonzalez… and there’s no better weapon in the game. BB previously negated Hill and Waddle with smallish hyper fast CB’s (Jones) and DMC over the top.

There’s no weapon impossible to cover or account for. Very few guys keep DC’s up at night, “hey Gonzo/Gilmore/Revis, you go cover that guy” is often enough. If you don’t have good corners and pass rush, anyone can be a dangerous weapon.

Ayuik ran a 4.5 forty, he’s not as fast as Osborn and about as fast as young Juju. The entire skill position group at my high school ran that or better. He’s 6 feet tall... #1?

I think the mistake fans often make is assuming you acquire Ayuik for a ransom (and it will be), that you automatically get that type of production… and it doesn’t work that way.

Randy Moss couldn’t produce with a bad QB and O-Line on the Raiders… and Ayuik is no Randy Moss. He’s like that smoking hot chick in small town Idaho, in Miami she’s a solid 7 at best.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Tyreek Hill pretty much got shut down last season by a rookie CB in Gonzalez… and there’s no better weapon in the game. BB previously negated Hill and Waddle with smallish hyper fast CB’s (Jones) and DMC over the top.

There’s no weapon impossible to cover or account for. Very few guys keep DC’s up at night, “hey Gonzo/Gilmore/Revis, you go cover that guy” is often enough. If you don’t have good corners and pass rush, anyone can be a dangerous weapon.

Ayuik ran a 4.5 forty, he’s not as fast as Osborn and about as fast as young Juju. The entire skill position group at my high school ran that or better. He’s 6 feet tall... #1?

I think the mistake fans often make is assuming you acquire Ayuik for a ransom (and it will be), that you automatically get that type of production… and it doesn’t work that way.

Randy Moss couldn’t produce with a bad QB and O-Line on the Raiders… and Ayuik is no Randy Moss. He’s like that smoking hot chick in small town Idaho, in Miami she’s a solid 7 at best.

Moss had 1000yd seasons with Matt Cassell, Dante Culpepper, Kerry Collins (Raiders), Jeff George and a 36 year old Randall Cunningham. He was the definition of a true #1.

A #1 demands special attention which you just outlined. Left in standard coverage he'll make plays.

Speed is important but not that important. Running a 4.5 is fast enough if the receiver runs great routes, uses his body well and creates great separation.

 

[Sfpat]

Tyreek Hill pretty much got shut down last season by a rookie CB in Gonzalez… and there’s no better weapon in the game. BB previously negated Hill and Waddle with smallish hyper fast CB’s (Jones) and DMC over the top.

There’s no weapon impossible to cover or account for. Very few guys keep DC’s up at night, “hey Gonzo/Gilmore/Revis, you go cover that guy” is often enough. If you don’t have good corners and pass rush, anyone can be a dangerous weapon.

Ayuik ran a 4.5 forty, he’s not as fast as Osborn and about as fast as young Juju. The entire skill position group at my high school ran that or better. He’s 6 feet tall... #1?

I think the mistake fans often make is assuming you acquire Ayuik for a ransom (and it will be), that you automatically get that type of production… and it doesn’t work that way.

Randy Moss couldn’t produce with a bad QB and O-Line on the Raiders… and Ayuik is no Randy Moss. He’s like that smoking hot chick in small town Idaho, in Miami she’s a solid 7 at best.

I'm trying to remember what Jerry Rice ran. Any help (and Wozzy I agree with most of your posts)?

 

[Wozzy]

Moss had 1000yd seasons with Matt Cassell, Dante Culpepper, Kerry Collins (Raiders), Jeff George and a 36 year old Randall Cunningham. He was the definition of a true #1.

Moss had 553 receiving yards with Andrew Walters getting sacked at a league leading pace with the Raiders... which is how the Pat's acquired him for a 4th round pick. Every QB you listed above was average to good. Let's agree that there's different levels of competency for teams and QB's before we go any further.

A #1 demands special attention which you just outlined. Left in standard coverage he'll make plays.

Speed is important but not that important. Running a 4.5 is fast enough if the receiver runs great routes, uses his body well and creates great separation.

Jacksonville thought they were getting a #1 when they overpaid for Calvin Ridley, most of the weapons crowd here thought so as well... what they ended up with was a #2 who was getting outplayed by Christian Kirk last season before he got hurt.

Overvaluing other teams players or ascribing some magic power to them that doesn't exist (calling them a #1 or elite) is a great way to dig yourself into a salary cap hole and be thoroughly average because you were desperate to fill a position.

Auyik is a 6 foot guy who runs a 4.5 forty, we just signed a guy like that in Osborn... the difference is Osborn has never played in an explosive offense like Kyle Shanahans.

The Patriots need a QB, then they can start looking for a superweapon in the draft... one they can afford.

 

[Wozzy]

I'm trying to remember what Jerry Rice ran. Any help (and Wozzy I agree with most of your posts)?

They said jerry Rice ran a 4.5 at the combine and 4.4 at his pro days. He was 6'2" 200 pounds and he certainly benefitted from the greatest offensive mind in history, the guy who created the west coast offense that Reid and Shanahan and Mike McDaniels run today. He also benefitted from great player evaluation that brought Joe Montana and Steve Young to town. Let's pretend for a second that a gambler and poor decision maker like Ridley isn't working nearly as hard as Jerry Rice.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Moss had 553 receiving yards with Andrew Walters getting sacked at a league leading pace with the Raiders... which is how the Pat's acquired him for a 4th round pick. Every QB you listed above was average to good. Let's agree that there's different levels of competency for teams and QB's before we go any further.

They were all average QBs aided by a HoF WR

Jacksonville thought they were getting a #1 when they overpaid for Calvin Ridley, most of the weapons crowd here thought so as well... what they ended up with was a #2 who was getting outplayed by Christian Kirk last season before he got hurt.

#2s

Overvaluing other teams players or ascribing some magic power to them that doesn't exist (calling them a #1 or elite) is a great way to dig yourself into a salary cap hole and be thoroughly average because you were desperate to fill a position.

Auyik is a 6 foot guy who runs a 4.5 forty, we just signed a guy like that in Osborn... the difference is Osborn has never played in an explosive offense like Kyle Shanahans.

Shanny Jrs offenses are/were explosive b/c he had good QBs. Give him an ave one like JimmyG and his offense is average.

The Patriots need a QB, then they can start looking for a superweapon in the draft... one they can afford.

Need both if they want to compete. Doesn't need to be a WR...could be a TE.

 

[Wozzy]

They were all average QBs aided by a HoF WR

Matt Cassel made a pro bowl the year after he left, he was "good." Collins probably falls into that good category as well, both had solid accuracy and Collins played for 16 seasons. Cunningham, Culpepper and George all shared one thing in common, they had big arms and could throw for a lot of yards. They just weren't very accurate and threw to the other team, similar to Jameis Winston who led the NFL in passing yards in 2019.

#2s

Shanny Jrs offenses are/were explosive b/c he had good QBs. Give him an ave one like JimmyG and his offense is average.

Need both if they want to compete. Doesn't need to be a WR...could be a TE.

Bottom line... is you're comparing a 6'3" receiver who was one of the fastest track stars in the nation and whose nickname was "the freak" to a 6 foot tall guy who ran a 4.5 forty. It's an absurd comparison, and paying Aiyuk after trading a ransom for him in draft picks would be outright stupidity. If it were Randy Moss we were talking about, I might make that trade... but it's not.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Matt Cassel made a pro bowl the year after he left, he was "good." Collins probably falls into that good category as well, both had solid accuracy and Collins played for 16 seasons. Cunningham, Culpepper and George all shared one thing in common, they had big arms and could throw for a lot of yards. They just weren't very accurate at through to the other team, similar to Jameis Winston who led the NFL in passing yards in 2019.

Even average QBs can make the ProBowl. Look at Mac.

Cassell was serviceable. Surrounded by Welker, Moss, Jamaal Charles, Bowe, etc he did fine.

All the QBs mentioned had pretty much their best years passing the ball w/ Moss.

Bottom line... is you're comparing a 6'3" receiver who was one of the fastest track stars in the nation and whose nickname was "the freak" to a 6 foot tall guy who ran a 4.5 forty. It's an absurd comparison, and paying Aiyuk after trading a ransom for him in draft picks would be outright stupidity. If it were Randy Moss we were talking about, I might make that trade... but it's not.

No

Your question was is there such a thing as a #1 WR. There is. The example was Moss.

 

[Wozzy]

Even average QBs can make the ProBowl. Look at Mac.

Cassell was serviceable. Surrounded by Welker, Moss, Jamaal Charles, Bowe, etc he did fine.

Cassel was better than Mac, especially with a decent team around him which he basically only had for 2008 and one season in KC where he made the pro bowl, after that his teams were abominable. I think Cassel is similar to Brissett, nothing amazing but could move the chains, get first downs and protect the ball.

All the QBs mentioned had pretty much their best years passing the ball w/ Moss.

Agreed, in Minny they also had another All Pro in Chris Carter. These QB's problem wasn't passing for a lot of yards, passing far, or even passing for TD's... it was their propensity for throwing interceptions.

The Raiders Andrew Walter not only sucked and couldn't throw, he had the worst offensive line and led the entire NFL in sacks... he was nowhere near the caliber of player ^ any of these guys were. The year after next he was completely out of the NFL.

Moss didn't suck, he was no less elite in 2006 than he was in 2007... his situation sucked and it's a team game.

Your question was is there such a thing as a #1 WR. There is. The example was Moss.

If Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Brown or DK Metcalf are #1 WR's... then Aiyuk is nowhere near a #1 WR.

No DC is staying up late at night worried about Aiyuk, they're not crafting gameplan's around his explosiveness. He's a solid possession receiver in a great situation that makes him look better than he really is. He's a #2.

 

[PatsFan2]

Seems like Tee Higgins wouldn't mind getting traded to a Contendah!!

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm trying to remember what Jerry Rice ran. Any help (and Wozzy I agree with most of your posts)?

Google says 4.71 40 for Jerry Rice. That's slower than most runningbacks but didn't stop him from becoming an all-time great.

Anyways apparently these were unofficial times so take it with a grain of salt. I guess they didn't have electronic timing in those days so it was probably hand timed which can lead to some variance.

Source:

Brenden Rice vs. Jerry Rice Combine 40 times: How the USC WR's speed compares to NFL legend dad | Sporting News

The USC wide receiver will almost certainly clock a faster 40-yard dash time than his father, Jerry Rice, did ahead of the 1985 NFL Draft.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[VJCPatriot]

Seems like Tee Higgins wouldn't mind getting traded to a Contendah!!

We're not a contender. But we do have loads of cash we could throw at him.

I feel like Aiyuk would be better than Higgins but beggars can't be choosers and the Pats are starved for a WR1.

 

[bakes781]

Every time Deebo Samuels name comes up I get a little pissed off. He was my very last Pats draft binkie, when they passed on him I promised myself never again.

Same

 

[Ivan]

I would take Deebo over Aiyuk every time.

 

[Ivan]

Aiyuk is not a #1 receiver. #l1 WR’s are guys like Adams, Lamb, Diggs, Hill and Chase. Aiyuk is a #2.

 

[Ivan]

This draft is stacked at wr the only thing I’m trading a pick for is if the Vikings want to include Jefferson to get our number 3.

That’s insane.

 

[mgteich]

Your question was is there such a thing as a #1 WR. There is. The example was Moss.

Your example of a true #1 is one of the best in the history of the NFL. What folks seem to mean by a #1 WR is an all-pro quality receiver, just as they mean possible MVP when they mean #1 QB.

The reality is that there are very few of either around.

Sure, we would like one to have one the top 10 WR's and QB's in the league. We NEED a QB capable of leading a playoff team. And we NEED a WR that draws a double team.

IMO, we don't NEED a top receiver this year, especially since the market will be better next year. If we want a 5yr/$100M receiver, I wownt him starting in 2025, not 2024. But, as I have said, I am fine in making a trade if the right player can be found. For us, this would NOT be one the cost a high salary and a high draft choice. If a team need to dump a player to create cap room, we are a team that can afford to listen.

 

[Ivan]

Your example of a true #1 is one of the best in the history of the NFL. What folks seem to mean by a #1 WR is an all-pro quality receiver, just as they mean possible MVP when they mean #1 QB.

The reality is that there are very few of either around.

Sure, we would like one to have one the top 10 WR's and QB's in the league. We NEED a QB capable of leading a playoff team. And we NEED a WR that draws a double team.

IMO, we don't NEED a top receiver this year, especially since the market will be better next year. If we want a 5yr/$100M receiver, I wownt him starting in 2025, not 2024. But, as I have said, I am fine in making a trade if the right player can be found. For us, this would NOT be one the cost a high salary and a high draft choice. If a team need to dump a player to create cap room, we are a team that can afford to listen.

I agree with this completely. And while having a top WR is certainly fun to watch as a fan you are better off having a really balanced WR unit than you are one dominant WR, as they can be taken away by a great corner, or scheming, as Belichick did to Tyreek Hill consistently. That doesn’t mean you stop them altogether, just that you don’t let them kill you. If that team has the ability to turn elsewhere to get the job done they can still overcome it, if they don’t they are in trouble. Whereas if you have a more balanced receiving corps it makes it harder for defenses to deal with, as they have to be deep enough defensively to deal with numerous match up threats, and deeming against it is much harder. The key is always going to be the QB. Mahomes had one of the weakest, if not the weakest WR units in the playoffs, and they won their 2.nd straight Lombardi, and that was after shipping their All Pro WR Hill to Miami 2 years ago.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Every time Deebo Samuels name comes up I get a little pissed off. He was my very last Pats draft binkie, when they passed on him I promised myself never again.

Ah, yes, the Deebo disaster. The whiff that caused the departure of Brady and the eventual firing of BB. The consensus is that the Deebo disaster was the fault of BB, but now I have to wonder if Kraft was the guy who fell in love with N'Keal Harry (because of his interviewing skills?).

Yes, I also get upset every time I see Deebo (or Metcalf or A. J. Brown). It is amazing how a single horrific draft pick can ruin a franchise. This year the Patriots have an opportunity to make another disastrous, fanchise-killing draft pick or (in my opinion) trade down and restock.