Asked about the point spread, Vince invokes "The Game That Shall Not Be Mentioned"

[supafly]

I think denver was an underdog at home last year also.

Possibly, but I was only counting the games where NE was supposed to blow them out. In other words, double digit point spreads.

The only one I'm unsure of is the '09 loss at home to BAL, but I believe they opened somewhere close to -7 or so.

 

[SVN]

I think the biggest danger for the pats is if they start worrying too much of not choking under the 16 pt spread. I think partly the 45-3 game played on them in 2010. They might have been too tight to not lose after dominating them in the regular season. if they play with their normal intensity they should be good.

 

[supafly]

How in the hell was the 2009 Ravens the underdogs in that game? Our team was all busted up by the time the playoffs came around. Just goes to show Vince is right, the experts are complete idiots! But we already knew that!

I don't make the spreads, but I'm pretty sure NE opened as a significant favorite of a touchdown or so. Hell, they hadn't lost a home playoff game to that point, had they? They were seeded higher, as well.

If you don't care for that example, there are plenty of others that make the same point. 2007 Giants, 2010 Jets, 2012 Ravens were all at -10 or more at one point.

 

[SVN]

I don't make the spreads, but I'm pretty sure NE opened as a significant favorite of a touchdown or so. Hell, they hadn't lost a home playoff game to that point, had they? They were seeded higher, as well.

If you don't care for that example, there are plenty of others that make the same point. 2007 Giants, 2010 Jets, 2012 Ravens were all at -10 or more at one point.

I am interested to see when they double digit favorites and won with and without beating the spread.

 

[supafly]

I am interested to see when they double digit favorites and won with and without beating the spread.

You mean you're interested in knowing how often NE wins straight up when favored by -10 or more? I'd have to guess that it would be a very high winning percentage of 85-90 percent, but a fairly low rate of covering (like any team).

I had a subscription to BetLabs this year, but unfortunately, it ran out and I did not renew it. If you stumble across some numbers, share them. I'll do the same. Thanks.

 

[Jackson 2]

I'm as old as dirt and I don't ever recall any playoff team being so universally dismissed as having absolutely no chance as the Texans are. Gives me the creeps...

 

[Bradyking12]

I'm as old as dirt and I don't ever recall any playoff team being so universally dismissed as having absolutely no chance as the Texans are. Gives me the creeps...

Yea but I don't see Brock or Savage turning into Joe Montana overnight

 

[SVN]

Listening to obrien in the presser he said they are going to play aggressively. Yeah its just presser talk so we can ignore it.But the big thing in the week3 game was they barely went deep and didnt take any chances. They handed off the ball on many 3rd downs. I bet they come out throwing deep to see if they can connect one. Its all about momentum and making a play to start believing in yourself.

 

[SVN]

I'm as old as dirt and I don't ever recall any playoff team being so universally dismissed as having absolutely no chance as the Texans are. Gives me the creeps...

Maybe the tebow game ?

 

[Jackson 2]

Maybe the tebow game ?

Yeah, that one crossed my mind, but this one seems more extreme to me. Anyone remember what the spread was in that one?

 

[jah]

How in the hell was the 2009 Ravens the underdogs in that game? Our team was all busted up by the time the playoffs came around. Just goes to show Vince is right, the experts are complete idiots! But we already knew that!

I think we all expected to beat them though. They were 9-7, the 6 seed, and we had already beaten them.

 

[Ring 6]

Possibly, but I was only counting the games where NE was supposed to blow them out. In other words, double digit point spreads.

The only one I'm unsure of is the '09 loss at home to BAL, but I believe they opened somewhere close to -7 or so.

I don't think they were double digit in 2012 either.

 

[deroc5050]

We've got plenty of examples of underdogs recently beating NE in the postseason.

2007 NYG
2009 BAL
2010 NYJ
2012 BAL

All of these spreads (the exception possibly occurring in '09) were hovering around double digit favorites, where the underdog beat us outright.

2009 felt wrong because we lost Wes during the last game of the year.. I believe against the Texans. I think Wes had 110 catches that season and most of the offense went through Wes.

Point spreads are based on perception not on facts. With that said I think the 16 point spread is pretty accurate this time.

 

[Ring 6]

We've got plenty of examples of underdogs recently beating NE in the postseason.

2007 NYG
2009 BAL
2010 NYJ
2012 BAL

All of these spreads (the exception possibly occurring in '09) were hovering around double digit favorites, where the underdog beat us outright.

According to this site
Archived Closing NFL Odds, NFL Lines, NFL Point Spreads. Historical Pro Football: 2006 - Current

The closing lines were
2009 3.5
2012. 7
2010. 9
2007. 12.5


So neither raven game was a huge underdog.

 

[EddardSnow67]

Listening to obrien in the presser he said they are going to play aggressively. Yeah its just presser talk so we can ignore it.But the big thing in the week3 game was they barely went deep and didnt take any chances. They handed off the ball on many 3rd downs. I bet they come out throwing deep to see if they can connect one. Its all about momentum and making a play to start believing in yourself.

They didn't go deep then and they're unlikely to go deep I'm this game. They'll take a shot or two, but the Texans were 23rd in turnover margin this year and Osweiler has horrible numbers beyond intermediate throws.

Quite frankly, I probably wouldn't take too many shots downfield if I were the Houston coaching staff, either. It's a particularly huge risk in this game, as the Patriots have shown a decent ability to take the ball away this season and have a great turnover margin.

The Texans really can't afford to make big mistakes in this game and they really can't afford to get down more than a score early, especially with the Patriots' running game and Houston's terribly inefficient passing offense.

If Houston somehow gets ahead, they could eat away at the clock, as they were second in the league in time of possession. Unfortunately for them, the Patriots were 5th in that metric and the Patriots also had the fourth ranked passing offense by yards per game and the second highest QB rating in the league.

I'm not one to dismiss an opponent, but both teams would have to have completely atypical performances from their season averages for the Texans to win. It still could happen, though, as always.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Playoff football is never a guarantee as we all have experienced first hand several times over the years.. I think the Patriots are clearly the better team, but I'll never rule out guys like Wilfork, Vrable, etc who have been there before and done it.. especially when they're basically being insulted with an historic point spread.. you back these guys into a corner where they feel insulted and disrespected, with nothing to lose....

They'll punch us in the mouth a few times, I wouldn't take them lightly..

but I don't think Clowney is going to have nearly as good a performance tho outside in mid-January.. its not a climate controlled dome with speedy astro turf, its going to be below freezing on Saturday...

I feel good about our chances, but I'll be on the edge of my seat the whole time

 

[Pats1989]

We've got plenty of examples of underdogs recently beating NE in the postseason.

2007 NYG
2009 BAL
2010 NYJ
2012 BAL

All of these spreads (the exception possibly occurring in '09) were hovering around double digit favorites, where the underdog beat us outright.

I don't think the 09 and 2012 Ravens losses could be considered "Shocking" or "Upsets". I'll give you "upset" for the others.

 

[Jackson 2]

Maybe the tebow game ?

NE was favored by 14.

 

[Bradyking12]

I don't think the 09 and 2012 Ravens losses could be considered "Shocking" or "Upsets". I'll give you "upset" for the others.

I would call '12 an upset I mean we were missing Gronk but we had Welker, Hernendez, ETC, and TB12 coming of a MVP like season, if it wasn't for some guys having the dropsies maybe we would of won, but by only scoring 13 we beat ourselves imo

 

[supafly]

I don't think they were double digit in 2012 either.

Yeah, that was the "wind game" that drove the line down from -10 all the way to -6 within the final 48-72 hrs. (Your site has it ending at -7).

If you remember correctly, NE had the ball inside of the BAL 35 a total of seven times, only to come away with 13 points.

Edit: I found a link from Vegas Insider that had it at -8 for kickoff, but I know that it was hovering a point or two higher when it originally opened since we had a thread on it here: Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds