Asked about the point spread, Vince invokes "The Game That Shall Not Be Mentioned"

[supafly]

I don't think the 09 and 2012 Ravens losses could be considered "Shocking" or "Upsets". I'll give you "upset" for the others.

When a team is favored by 9 or 10 points (2012), it's considered a fairly big upset.

 

[TomPatriot]

You could make the argument that this is the healthiest team AND the deepest offense that NE has ever had going into the postseason. And that's without Gronk.

I think that argument would be correct.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Patriots, Rams.. Super Bowl... Patriots 14 point underdogs.

 

[supafly]

According to this site
Archived Closing NFL Odds, NFL Lines, NFL Point Spreads. Historical Pro Football: 2006 - Current

The closing lines were
2009 3.5
2012. 7
2010. 9
2007. 12.5


So neither raven game was a huge underdog.

Not meaning to nitpick, but the discussion was about opening lines, hence the -16 favor vs. HOU right now. I've also provided a different link that shows the 2012 AFCCG ending at -8.

The bottom line is that all of those games were hovering around double digits at one time or another, with the possible exception of 2009, which I admitted in my original post.

 

[supafly]

2009 felt wrong because we lost Wes during the last game of the year.. I believe against the Texans. I think Wes had 110 catches that season and most of the offense went through Wes.

Point spreads are based on perception not on facts. With that said I think the 16 point spread is pretty accurate this time.

Point spreads are based on what the books think will attract equal sides from both teams.

As you mention, there is some initial perception when setting the line.

 

[Jackson 2]

Yea but I don't see Brock or Savage turning into Joe Montana overnight

They won't. But, that doesn't preclude the Patriots from giving the game away. Don't get me wrong. I don't believe that will happen. But, it's not impossible. In my opinion, the only way the Pats can possibly lose is by turning it over multiple times.

 

[Ring 6]

When a team is favored by 9 or 10 points (2012), it's considered a fairly big upset.

But those were 7 and 3.5

 

[deroc5050]

The Pats could potentially lose if they turn the ball over 3 times and give up a big special teams play. I think thats what it would take to beat the Patriots.

I just hope the team isn't going in over confident and come out flat. I think the media EVERYWHERE is basically ****ting all over the Texans. When its this over the top, the exact opposite will happen.

Count me in as one of the over confident. In fact if they some how lost the game, it would probably be the biggest disappointment and let down since the 2010 loss to the Jets. I honestly felt the Jets had no chance of winning and they did with a ****ty QB and a good defense lol.. sounds familiar.

 

[supafly]

But those were 7 and 3.5

Opening and closing lines are two very different things, though.

In 2012, the line started higher and closed at -8 (or -7 from your source). Either way, there was a thread here on it that weekend, since it was dropping so much and all of the "sharps" money was coming in on the Ravens. The wind was a big concern for many (outside of our fan base), and rightfully so.
After all, it was one of the bigger reasons why NE had the ball in what would normally be considered FG range seven times, yet only came away with 13 points.

The weather definitely contributed to the movement of the spread in the 48-72 hrs proceeding it. You witnessed something similar in the OSU/CLEM game a week or two ago. Ohio State was giving -3, and all of the sharps money came in during game day to drive it down to CLEM-1. That's a 4 point swing just in the final 24 hrs prior to kickoff. In that game there was not a weather concern, but someone had some strong feelings anyway.

 

[zoostation]

We've got plenty of examples of underdogs recently beating NE in the postseason.

2007 NYG
2009 BAL
2010 NYJ
2012 BAL

All of these spreads (the exception possibly occurring in '09) were hovering around double digit favorites, where the underdog beat us outright.

2010 hurts the most but this Patriot team is much better...on both sides of the ball

 

[supafly]

2010 hurts the most but this team is better

No doubt. I agree.

The one and only reason I posted some examples is because we see this all the time.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

That's it, Vince is barred from the Patriot hall of fame!

What do we expect Vince to say - "we don't have a chance, I'm going to just stay home and eat an entire side of beef"?
I'll say this, the disrespect for the Texans has been snowballing and now is so massive that we can expect the Texans to play by far their most fired up game of the year. That makes beating them that much more difficult (Texans' 2016 history = still not overly difficult). But it also means if they come out overheated/giving it 200% yet we still jump out to an early lead, their fire and focus will drop off into one deep chasm.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

To be fair pretty much anyone going against the Pats in the playoffs is an underdog, so unless we win it all every year we're going to have quite a few losses to underdogs. But not all underdogs are created equal. There's being a minimal underdog (maybe 3 points or so) like the AFCCG last year, and then there's being 16 point underdogs like the Texans are right now. Very different.

Kinda reflecting that spread all of those teams scared me more than this Texans team does. Not to say this isn't a losable game because it obviously is, but given the standard caveats of this being the playoffs, any given Sunday in general, etc., I think I'm about as confident as someone reasonably ever should be.

Agreed. Any game is lose-able especially in the playoffs.

I sense some people getting concerned because the chatter and the odds are so very heavily in the Patriots' favor. Understandable but, IMHO, not needed. A fair assessment of the Patriots 2016 track record and the Texans 2016 track record says the Patriots overwhelmingly should win this. Again that's not overconfidence -- though it looks like gross overconfidence -- it's a fair and very justifiable reading of the tea leaves. If this level of hubris is there for Pitt or KC it would be unwarranted. For Houston and their frequently so-so 2016 performance it isn't. For Houston to win this game they are going to have to play better than they have played all season...not mention it is in the toughest PO stadium to win in against the most PO experienced team that is ranked highly on both sides of the ball.

Look at the Texans' last 10. Their isn't a convincing performance even against opponents that the Patriots would tear a new one to:
10/24/2016 @ Denver L 27-9
10/30/2016 Detroit W 20-13
11/13/2016 @ Jacksonville W 24-21
11/21/2016 @ Oakland L 27-20
11/27/2016 San Diego L 21-13
12/04/2016 @ Green Bay L 21-13
12/11/2016 @ Indianapolis W 22-17
12/18/2016 Jacksonville W 21-20
12/24/2016 Cincinnati W 12-10
01/01/2017 @ Tennessee L 24-17

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Threads keep being shut down before I can respond.

I thought this was referring to

As for the catastrophe, this is the one from my youth:

 

[SammyBlueCat]

 

[SVN]

Yea but I don't see Brock or Savage turning into Joe Montana overnight

Me neither. But no one saw the pats win coming in 2001 either vs the rams except maybe pats fans. I guess the big difference is the belief in the players and coaches. Thats where it starts for the texans.

 

[SVN]

classic boston media
Ryan: Losing to Texans would be worse than Super Bowl XLII loss to Giants

 

[patsfan-1982]

everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth - Mike Tyson.

giants were talking how the pats don't wanna see us before they even had a playoff game and there team had not scored 20 points in like 5 games they got blown out by a hot QB. the fish were a team that did not do well vs good teams they got sent home by 3 of the biggest stars in the NFL...Seahawks just dont loss at home playoff time, Oakland had a 3rd string rookie QB and a bad game plan with 0 adjustments,

BOTTOM LINE the 4 best teams in the NFL have yet to play we will find out after this week who are contenders and who are pretenders and if the pats cant beat brock osweiler they were never a SB to start with. they wont blow them out but the pats will win by 10

 

[luuked]

Im hearing people that don't know anything about football joke about how the Texans can't possibly win. When sentiment in the stock market hits this level I start thinking about selling.

I don't know how that analogy makes even remotely sense...

 

[luuked]

everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth - Mike Tyson.

giants were talking how the pats don't wanna see us before they even had a playoff game and there team had not scored 20 points in like 5 games they got blown out by a hot QB. the fish were a team that did not do well vs good teams they got sent home by 3 of the biggest stars in the NFL...Seahawks just dont loss at home playoff time, Oakland had a 3rd string rookie QB and a bad game plan with 0 adjustments,

BOTTOM LINE the 4 best teams in the NFL have yet to play we will find out after this week who are contenders and who are pretenders and if the pats cant beat brock osweiler they were never a SB to start with. they wont blow them out but the pats will win by 10

What happened in the 2007 or 2010 or 2012 doesn't matter at all to a game played next Saturday. Those are lazy, meaningless narratives masquerading as some "insightful point" so people have things to talk about while they are waiting.

I don't need to see the Texans play to know that they are thoroughly outmatched compared to the other 3 remaining teams in an average game to the point where the spread seems pretty reasonable. Now whether we will get a game like the one everyone is expecting to see 19 out of 20 times where we easily beat them or whether the Patriots lay an egg with turnovers and lazy play and it becomes that dreaded 1 out 20 game is a different story.

Either way I like the odds to win this game and that's all you can ask for beforehand.