Brady for MVP this year or is there someone more deserving?

[TinhWoodhead]

If the Eagles lose their next three then there will be a new narrative that Wentz deserves it because "look how bad the Eagles were without him."

Not saying it's a good narrative, but guarantee you'll hear it.

D. Carr scenario last year

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Bovada Odds Today

Tom Brady -500 (83%)
Russell Wilson +750 (12%)
Drew Brees +2000 (5%)
Ben Roethlisberger +2000 (5%)
Antonio Brown +2500 (4%)
Le'Veon Bell +3300 (3%)

The probabilities add up to over 100% because that's the vig you pay to Vegas in futures betting.

Brady would have to play poorly over the last four games to not win the award. If he plays adequately, he would still be the clear frontrunner for MVP even with a loss to the Steelers, despite all the silly noise and hype tat would blow up about Roethlsiberger, who played way below standards for half the season. Even if this were to happen, the Patriots have two home games against the Bills and Jets to end the season. If the Patriots beat the Steelers , I don't think it's possible for Brady to not win the MVP award. He would really have to choke this away.

Voters are strange. I would still vote for Wentz in a split second over Roethlsiberger or Brees, especially Roethlisberger. He will finish with more TD passes and 11 wins despite only playing 13 games. He essentially ended his season after already accomplishing home field advantage, and it's still possible he will lead the entire NFL in TD passes. Things will change before now and then, but even with missing three games, I would put him in second place in the MVP voting, although Wilson may surpass him.

You add up those percentages & it is 112%.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I don’t think “should” comes into play. The preference has been to avoid giving the MVP to Brady. He wins too much objectively, why give him all the subjective stuff too?

 

[TB_Helmet]

Bovada Odds Today

Tom Brady -500 (83%)
Russell Wilson +750 (12%)
Drew Brees +2000 (5%)
Ben Roethlisberger +2000 (5%)
Antonio Brown +2500 (4%)
Le'Veon Bell +3300 (3%)

The probabilities add up to over 100% because that's the vig you pay to Vegas in futures betting.

Brady would have to play poorly over the last four games to not win the award. If he plays adequately, he would still be the clear frontrunner for MVP even with a loss to the Steelers, despite all the silly noise and hype tat would blow up about Roethlsiberger, who played way below standards for half the season. Even if this were to happen, the Patriots have two home games against the Bills and Jets to end the season. If the Patriots beat the Steelers , I don't think it's possible for Brady to not win the MVP award. He would really have to choke this away.

Voters are strange. I would still vote for Wentz in a split second over Roethlsiberger or Brees, especially Roethlisberger. He will finish with more TD passes and 11 wins despite only playing 13 games. He essentially ended his season after already accomplishing home field advantage, and it's still possible he will lead the entire NFL in TD passes. Things will change before now and then, but even with missing three games, I would put him in second place in the MVP voting, although Wilson may surpass him.

Good thing I bet on Brady for MVP at the beginning of the year when he was +400!

 

[lancerman]

I don’t think “should” comes into play. The preference has been to avoid giving the MVP to Brady. He wins too much objectively, why give him all the subjective stuff too?

I don't think the preference has been to avoid giving it Brady, I think in years where he actually should have been deserved it, other dark horse candidates had a strong year. 2016 Ryan had a historic year leading a great offense while Brady lost 25% of his season. 2015 Cam came out of nowhere and led his team to 15-1 and was dominating the league. 2014 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck and the Packers beat us in the head to head. 2013 nobody but Manning was getting it and Brady objectively had one of the worst seasons of his career. 2012 he really wasn't in the hunt. 2011 Rodgers had a monster year. 2010 he rightfully won it. 2009 it clearly was between Brees and Manning. He was out in 08. He won it like he should have in 2007. You can keep going but it's not like he's been getting screwed out of it.

He's probably going to win it this year as he is objectively the best QB on the best team. Unless he has a trash game against the Steelers in prime time, he won it.

 

[XLIX]

I don't think the preference has been to avoid giving it Brady, I think in years where he actually should have been deserved it, other dark horse candidates had a strong year. 2016 Ryan had a historic year leading a great offense while Brady lost 25% of his season. 2015 Cam came out of nowhere and led his team to 15-1 and was dominating the league. 2014 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck and the Packers beat us in the head to head. 2013 nobody but Manning was getting it and Brady objectively had one of the worst seasons of his career. 2012 he really wasn't in the hunt. 2011 Rodgers had a monster year. 2010 he rightfully won it. 2009 it clearly was between Brees and Manning. He was out in 08. He won it like he should have in 2007. You can keep going but it's not like he's been getting screwed out of it.

This is how I feel too. I really haven't seen any situations where he was legitimately screwed by the voters.

 

[yukon cornelius]

the Antonia Brown push by the media seems to be kicking in......Brady "outplays" Brown next Sunday, it's in the bag...


(yeah I know apples to oranges, but if Brown has a huge day and Steelers win, the noise will grow.....Pats win and Brady plays well, it's his.....)

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You add up those percentages & it is 112%.

That accounts for the vig. Each player would be off by a few percentage points so that the total adds up to over 100%. 12% is the Vegas take, or perhaps a little more if you consider "the field" is not an option and does have some probability, however slight.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Thing with Brady, and BB with coach of the year, is you could give it to them just about every year lol

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Ryan Clark is banging the Wilson for MVP drums today. He hates everything Patriots so I am not surprised.

Wilson has 11 interceptions
Brady has 4 interceptions

Brady’s QBR - 109.7
Wilson’s QBR - 95.5

I am taking notes on who is stupid enough to continue piping Russell Wilson for MVP. He was the MVP of one week in one game against the Eagles and that's where it ends. Yesterday, 0 points at halftime and three INTs before he got going against a defense that no longer cared. Yet still a whole bunch of people are using that as "a plus" about how great he is. 17 fourth quarter TD passes...amazing! How many in the first three quarters? Oh that's right, a pathetic, almost unimaginable 12 combined! That's a garbage time king right there. Up until yesterday, Seattle has allowed fewer points on the season than New England, but the difference is one QB is averaging 30 points per game while the other is averaging about a full TD less.

Wentz -3 games is a far better MVP candidate than Wilson.

 

[drewskie]

I don't think the preference has been to avoid giving it Brady, I think in years where he actually should have been deserved it, other dark horse candidates had a strong year. 2016 Ryan had a historic year leading a great offense while Brady lost 25% of his season. 2015 Cam came out of nowhere and led his team to 15-1 and was dominating the league. 2014 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck and the Packers beat us in the head to head. 2013 nobody but Manning was getting it and Brady objectively had one of the worst seasons of his career. 2012 he really wasn't in the hunt. 2011 Rodgers had a monster year. 2010 he rightfully won it. 2009 it clearly was between Brees and Manning. He was out in 08. He won it like he should have in 2007. You can keep going but it's not like he's been getting screwed out of it.

He's probably going to win it this year as he is objectively the best QB on the best team. Unless he has a trash game against the Steelers in prime time, he won it.

I get what you're saying. The biggest gripe I guess you could say was that Manning won it over Brees in 2009 by virtue of being 1 game better in terms of team record (and starting the season 14-0 for IND) even though Brees had the superior stats (and the Saints finished 13-3 no less).

In 2016 based on the same precedence even in spite of missing 4 games, it should have gone to Brady if the same criteria that was used in 2009 was applied last year.

Brady was also the runaway favorite in 2015 until injuries mounted up while Cam and the Panthers continued their resurgence.

I would venture to say that 2 of Manning's MVP winning seasons of 2003 and 2008 were not even among his best seasons in 2012 or 2014.

In other words, both through circumstances out of their control and also due to media preference, Manning always got the benefit of the doubt while goal posts were moved while the opposite has been applied to Brady.

 

[TB_Helmet]

I don't think the preference has been to avoid giving it Brady, I think in years where he actually should have been deserved it, other dark horse candidates had a strong year. 2016 Ryan had a historic year leading a great offense while Brady lost 25% of his season. 2015 Cam came out of nowhere and led his team to 15-1 and was dominating the league. 2014 Rodgers and Brady were neck and neck and the Packers beat us in the head to head. 2013 nobody but Manning was getting it and Brady objectively had one of the worst seasons of his career. 2012 he really wasn't in the hunt. 2011 Rodgers had a monster year. 2010 he rightfully won it. 2009 it clearly was between Brees and Manning. He was out in 08. He won it like he should have in 2007. You can keep going but it's not like he's been getting screwed out of it.

He's probably going to win it this year as he is objectively the best QB on the best team. Unless he has a trash game against the Steelers in prime time, he won it.

This is good analysis. I think the main thing people are mad about is that Pink Head won MVP a lot even when he probably didn't deserve it. It's not that he won it over Brady, it's that he won it over someone else who probably deserved it more. But that's never been the case for Brady; he's always had to be clear head and shoulders above everyone else to win the award. Whatever.

 

[fightingirish595]

D. Carr scenario last year

Eagles are a much better team in my opinion than oakland was last year

I think foles will do fine

 

[fightingirish595]

Wentz is the only guy I would have given MVP to over Brady. that injury just ended the debate. Tom Brady will be the first All pro QB and the MVP. He will be fighting fora number 1 seed, Carson wentz will not be

 

[Biffins]

You add up those percentages & it is 112%.

Maybe read the first line right after the odds!!

 

[Biffins]

I am taking notes on who is stupid enough to continue piping Russell Wilson for MVP. He was the MVP of one week in one game against the Eagles and that's where it ends. Yesterday, 0 points at halftime and three INTs before he got going against a defense that no longer cared. Yet still a whole bunch of people are using that as "a plus" about how great he is. 17 fourth quarter TD passes...amazing! How many in the first three quarters? Oh that's right, a pathetic, almost unimaginable 12 combined! That's a garbage time king right there. Up until yesterday, Seattle has allowed fewer points on the season than New England, but the difference is one QB is averaging 30 points per game while the other is averaging about a full TD less.

Wentz -3 games is a far better MVP candidate than Wilson.

These idiots for starters

https://nypost.com/2017/12/09/why-russell-wilson-should-be-nfl-mvp-and-its-not-even-close/

And these idiots

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson in MVP-caliber form

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Maybe read the first line right after the odds!!

Maybe, but thanks for pointing out what was already addressed by the original poster long before you chimed in.

Maybe you should read all the posts

 

[cupofjoe1962]

That accounts for the vig. Each player would be off by a few percentage points so that the total adds up to over 100%. 12% is the Vegas take, or perhaps a little more if you consider "the field" is not an option and does have some probability, however slight.

Thank you !

 

[upstater1]

2012 he really wasn't in the hunt.

He wasn't in the hunt in 2012, but he should have been.

He should have gotten more votes than the #2 guy Aaron Rodgers.

That was one of the finest performances in NFL history.

Brady threw for 4827 yards, 34 TDs to 8 INTs.
Rodgers threw for 4295 yards, 39 TDs to 9 INTs.

However, while New England ran the ball at a 4.2 per carry to Green Bay's 3.9, the Patriots had 26 rushing TDs. Green Bay had only 9. In fact, 4 of the rushing TDs were by Brady. I guess QBs aren't credited for all these rushing TDs (even though, with 4827 passing yards, Brady set those rushing TDs up), and that maybe used to be true until everyone credited Cam Newton's rushing TDs to his total TDs when he won it.

The important thing about this whole comparison is that the Patriots that year scored 34.8 points a game to Green Bay's 27. In fact, they were tied for the 3rd highest scoring offense of all-time!

It was almost an unacknowledged year of dominance by Brady and the Patriots, an offensive explosion. It amazes me that he got so little credit for it. Personally I think it is up there as either his 2nd or 3rd best year.

 

[IndyKen]

Tom is so deserving this year - once again. But I'm well aware of that national anti Pats bias that exists. I remember once that Ted Williams lost the AL MVP award because in the voting process one NY writer didn't rank him at all in the top 20 players. If he had of, just those few additional points would have given him the award. So I'll be on edge from here on out.