Slow Your Roll on the Patriots WRs… There's a Long Way to Go

[scott99]

Injuries, that’s the great equalizer (unfortunately). These receivers need to stay healthy, since we’ll probably get way more receptions out of our WRs & RBs than our TEs (I expect our TEs will be virtually a non factor in the passing game). I expect going big at WR is the de facto version of Gronk as a receiver, I expect Thomas to run similar routes to what Gronk ran. For years, Gronk was our BIG receiver, now the roster has 3 BIG receivers. Should be interesting.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'm very optimistic about this group, but the Pats have a couple of unusual circumstances they have to deal with.

First, of course, Gordon is more of a risk than most, as either injury or drug testing could end his career here.

Second, they have two rookies they have to put on the 53 or lose. Period. Meyers never gets to the PS, nor should he. He's ready to play in the NFL, though at what level is a big question mark (and one that another team will be happy to explore).

If I recall correctly, when the Pats re-signed Dorsett, one of the things he wanted was an assurance that he'd be a bigger player in the offense. Is that going to happen, given the sudden changes in the roster?

With all of that, I think they have to keep 6, so I'll guess it's either:

Edelman-Gordon-Dorsett-Thomas-Harry-Meyers

or

Edelman-Gordon-Thomas-Harry-Meyers-Harris with Dorsett traded.

I'm leaning toward the first scenario, but a lot could, and will, happen in the next two weeks.

 

[Brick27]

When looking at the WRs one-by-one it looks concerning. There’s the youth/uncertainty to be instant contributors (Harry and Meyers), availability due to diminished health (Thomas) or off-field concerns (Gordon).

Assuming Edelman is hopefully a sure thing, that leaves 2 spots for 6 names being discussed who you hope can be a legit #2 and #3. The odds seem pretty good that 2 out of 6 in Gordon, Harry, Meyers, Dorsett, Thomas, and Harris can fill those roles when looking at it optimistically.

Did a little exercise to see how the Pats 4th WR has done in recent years, as they aren’t typically as significant in terms of production as maybe they are on teams that rely more heavily on 3-4 WR sets. When checking past seasons for the distribution of receiving yards going back 5 years it’s typically been 2-3 WRs, 1-2 TEs and 1 RB accounting for the top 5 spots. Here’s the order for those spots, plus where the 4th WR ended up.

2018: RB, WR, TE, WR, WR...WR4 6th with 290
2017: TE, WR, WR, WR, RB...WR4 8th with 194
2016: WR, TE, WR, RB, TE...WR4 7th with 243
2015: TE, WR, WR, WR, RB...WR4 7th with 269
2014: TE, WR, WR, RB, TE...WR4 7th with 82

Obviously receiving yardage distribution is just one element to the story, and not indicative of success on the field. Also this doesn’t factor in the impact of injuries and how they skew these stats (ex. Losing your top WR/TE midway through the year). I think what this does tell us though is that the loss of Gronk/a weaker TE group means that a WR3 may need to contribute more like a WR2, WR4 more like a WR3, etc.

This could of course be partially offset by continual emphasis on the running game thus less reliance on the passing game, more involvement in the passing game from RBs not named James White, and perhaps a pleasant surprise or two along the way (Ex. Having 2 WRs blow up for 1,000+ yards each).

Anyways, sorry I’m really bored and threw all this babble at the wall..

 

[Taco]

Listen you taco eating MF'er.

I'm so sorry, I was just dying to say that. I agree with you. This is a joke. Carry on.

Haha no worries

 

[Jackson 2]

Steve is realistic. Some won't like it.

What I don't like is having " experts" like Steve, the media people on NBCSB last night and Trollin' Volin telling us amateur peons that we're overrating this group. I think some of THEM are doing it far more than many fans. Look, there's a lot unproven in that group, but lots of potential, too. We'll see. Stop insulting us.

 

[Uptown]

F*ck that! Best WR corp in the league..for our system...playing with Brady.

 

[Deus Irae]

What I don't like is having " experts" like Steve, the media people on NBCSB last night and Trollin' Volin telling us amateur peons that we're overrating this group. I think some of THEM are doing it far more than many fans. Look, there's a lot unproven in that group, but lots of potential, too. We'll see. Stop insulting us.

If "us" would stop being so deluded as to think that the Patriots never screw up and every Patriots player is awesome, it wouldn't seem so insulting when reporters point out the obvious.

 

[Clonamery]

If "us" would stop being so deluded as to think that the Patriots never screw up and every Patriots player is awesome, it wouldn't seem so insulting when reporters point out the obvious.

Steve's approach should have been first person plural, We Need to Pump the Brakes.

As far as sugar coating every player, c'mon, you were fighting with posters yesterday who basically wanted to dump Gostkowski for Carli Lloyd. It cuts both ways.

 

[sean10mm]

Fans are just irrational in general. Other sports forums can be so much worse than here, though.

This receiver group has high upside, but is also highly unproven outside of Edelman, who is comparatively old and basically never starts 16 games. You have inexperience (Harry), injury/age (DT), off-field (Gordon) all making the whole situation a little fuzzy.

 

[patfanken]

I understand what Steve was saying and he's right. Here's the distinction that needs to be applied. The fact is that there are several teams that have 1-4 or even 1-5 WR groups with more talent than the Pats have. But in what season over the last 20 years where that HASN'T been the case. OK maybe in 2007, but that's one year in 20, so you get my point.

In this WR crazed universe that we seem to be living with, you would think that we Pats fans would be immune to this mania. But we aren't it seems. The fact is they Pats have CONSTANTLY shown that you can win with "good" but not great WR's, because (1) Teams that pay huge amounts for elite WR's generally don't have enough to build the rest of the team's middle class. (2) Good DC's can limit or eliminate $15MM WR's with $6MM or less of DB's,

What I think is important is to acknowledge that the REAL reason to be excited about the current direction of the WR group thus far is that it seems (to me at least), we have what we need to be a top 5 offense again this season. The offense doesn't require elite receivers to be successfull. There is an advantage in not having one guy that the opposing DC needs to focus his pass defense on. When has any DC before or since Moss, been able to focus on just one Pats WR? So why would anyone really bother with how the Pats group measures up to any other group, or care if they are rated higher. I think we have the WR group that fits our needs right now.

Of course there are questions that will to be asked, but only can be answered as the season plays out. Questions about Gordon's reliability, Thomas' achilles, Harry and Meyers' development, Edelman's age, and Dorsett's growth in the offense. And how they all respond to the injuries that will occur within the group.

These are the questions that will be asked all through the season, and we will discuss them ad nausium here at Patsfan. BUT the fact is that none of them will be fully answered until the end of it.

 

[Jackson 2]

If "us" would stop being so deluded as to think that the Patriots never screw up and every Patriots player is awesome, it wouldn't seem so insulting when reporters point out the obvious.

I don't think as many of "we" believe the Pats never screw up as those in the media seem to think "us" do. The team makes mistakes from time to time, but I believe it's less often than most other teams, but that's just "I" ...

 

[JMC00]

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[patchick]

Maybe we can compromise on this:

The Patriots look like they may have the #1 best group of blocking WRs in the whole league.

Seriously, watch this make a difference over the course of the season.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm very optimistic about this group, but the Pats have a couple of unusual circumstances they have to deal with.

First, of course, Gordon is more of a risk than most, as either injury or drug testing could end his career here.

Second, they have two rookies they have to put on the 53 or lose. Period. Meyers never gets to the PS, nor should he. He's ready to play in the NFL, though at what level is a big question mark (and one that another team will be happy to explore).

If I recall correctly, when the Pats re-signed Dorsett, one of the things he wanted was an assurance that he'd be a bigger player in the offense. Is that going to happen, given the sudden changes in the roster?

With all of that, I think they have to keep 6, so I'll guess it's either:

Edelman-Gordon-Dorsett-Thomas-Harry-Meyers

or

Edelman-Gordon-Thomas-Harry-Meyers-Harris with Dorsett traded.

I'm leaning toward the first scenario, but a lot could, and will, happen in the next two weeks.

6 is a lot.

 

[Ring 6]

Maybe we can compromise on this:

The Patriots look like they may have the #1 best group of blocking WRs in the whole league.

Seriously, watch this make a difference over the course of the season.

They start as one of the best blocking groups because they actually are required to take blocking seriously. The talent is an added plus.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think as many of "we" believe the Pats never screw up as those in the media seem to think "us" do. The team makes mistakes from time to time, but I believe it's less often than most other teams, but that's just "I" ...

This site is a pretty good example of the "we" Koolaid crew. Hell, this WR situation is an example. A few weeks ago, it was understood that the Patriots had one of the worst WR groups in the NFL, but it might be better if things broke right. Now, we're getting absolutely insane posts like

For me, I like the WR position more than any group since 2007.

and nothing has really changed other than Gordon getting off his suspension.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Maybe we can compromise on this:

The Patriots look like they may have the #1 best group of blocking WRs in the whole league.

Seriously, watch this make a difference over the course of the season.

I was just thinking this. They won't replace Gronk in that department, but it will be interesting to see what kind of running plays the Pats run with Edelman, Thomas, Gordon, and Harry on the field. Too bad they can't put 2-3 of them in motion.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

I’m going to go on record saying that Gordon and Harry together on the outside are damm near uncoverable with their sheer strength, size, and body control. Like I actually feel bad for Smaller DBs attempting to cover them. They have no chance

Add in Edelman and their will be a lot of passes to go around and open men.

Love the versatility and size of this years WRs

 

[NG Pats Fan]

This site is a pretty good example of the "we" Koolaid crew. Hell, this WR situation is an example. A few weeks ago, it was understood that the Patriots had one of the worst WR groups in the NFL, but it might be better if things broke right. Now, we're getting absolutely insane posts like



and nothing has really changed other than Gordon getting off his suspension.

Well Josh Gordon is a complete monster and the way Harry caught that preseason pass over two men and tossed them aside like rag dolls....


Size strength aggressiveness hands body control....those two check off the boxes...