Predict Brady's career passing records

[sb1]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play at a high enough level what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

 

[BobDigital]

I believe in the end Brady will compete with Brees and not Manning for those bulk numbers.

Depends how long each play. As of now.

TDs: Brady 456 Brees 465
Yards: Brady 61582 Brees 66111
Completions: Brady 5244 Brees 5836
Attempts: Brady 8224 Brees 8758

Personally for my money TDs and Yards are the big ones. Completions/Attempts are not a big deal to be but it be nice I guess.

Worth noting Brady has 50 game winning drives to Brees 42. So no chance for Brees to catch him likely.

 

[sb1]

I believe in the end Brady will compete with Brees and not Manning for those bulk numbers.

Depends how long each play.

That's true, it's worth noting that Brees is in the conversation for a few of these too. Unless the Saints defense improves I think he'll be behind and throwing a lot often.

 

[Ring 6]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

He gets all of them in 3 years

 

[NormZauchin]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

I don't know if number 5 will be a lock. For Brady to engineer a game winning drive, the usual formula is for the Patriots to suck for the first three quarters. (Note that this does not necessarily apply to playoff games and the Super Bowl, where an opponent like Seattle can just outplay the Pats for three quarters.) The Patriots appear so loaded for the coming regular season, it's hard to see them down in the fourth quarter more than two or three times.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

Hmm. Here's Brady's career averages per game:

1. Pass Yards: 258.8
2. Pass Completions: 22.1
3. Pass Attempts: 34.7
4. Pass TD: 1.92

That means at his career average production he is behind the records by the following number of games:

1. Pass Yards: 40.0 games
2. Pass Completions: 47.8 games
3. Pass Attempts: 55.5 games
4. Pass TD: 43.8

So he'd have to play 3.5 seasons, at his career average performance, to own all four of those records. He can get yards and TDs within three seasons.

Of course, I expect he'll actually be battling Brees, not Favre and Manning, for those records. I won't be surprised if Brees actually ends up owning them, though that'll depend on how soon Brees has to retire.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I believe in the end Brady will compete with Brees and not Manning for those bulk numbers.

Depends how long each play. As of now.

TDs: Brady 456 Brees 465
Yards: Brady 61582 Brees 66111
Completions: Brady 5244 Brees 5836
Attempts: Brady 8224 Brees 8758

Personally for my money TDs and Yards are the big ones. Completions/Attempts are not a big deal to be but it be nice I guess.

Worth noting Brady has 50 game winning drives to Brees 42. So no chance for Brees to catch him likely.

You may also want to add the most important number, even if it isn't going to be a record.

Interceptions
Brees - 220
Brady - 152

Just to establish that outside of somewhat meaningless "bulk stats" that are sure to be broken in the next generation, these two quarterbacks are not in the same class.

 

[BobDigital]

You may also want to add the most important number, even if it isn't going to be a record.

Interceptions
Brees - 220
Brady - 152

Just to establish that outside of somewhat meaningless "bulk stats" that are sure to be broken in the next generation, these two quarterbacks are not in the same class.

Never claimed Brees was better or bulk stats make you better. Just they would be nice for a Pats QB to hold is all. If he finishes 2nd in some of them instead of first it won't change anything. Still the GOAT.

Also Brees is a great QB. He is not as good as Brady but very good. I would say he is only 1 tier down and still arguably a first ballot HOFer.

 

[bormio]

Never claimed Brees was better or bulk stats make you better. Just they would be nice for a Pats QB to hold is all. If he finishes 2nd in some of them instead of first it won't change anything. Still the GOAT.

Also Brees is a great QB. He is not as good as Brady but very good. I would say he is only 1 tier down and still arguably a first ballot HOFer.

If it is plausible that Eli gets in on the first ballot - then Brees is for sure a first ballot HOFer. Of course, I do not really see Eli as deserving.

 

[Doctor DDS]

My favorite Brady stat is wins. Needs 4 regular season wins to pass Manning & Favre and will continue to add to his record 208 total wins. Am projecting he finishes somewhere in the 240 win range with 6 rings.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

My favorite Brady stat is wins. Needs 4 regular season wins to pass Manning & Favre and will continue to add to his record 208 total wins. Am projecting he finishes somewhere in the 240 win range with 6 rings.

Which of Brady's win totals will be most unbreakable when he retires?

Regular Season - 183 (record is 186.). Next closest active player is Drew Brees at 131.

Postseason - 25 wins (2nd is Montana at 16.). Next closest active player is Ben Roethlisberger at 13.

Super Bowls - 5 wins (2nd is Montana, Bradshaw at 4.). Next closest active players are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning at 2. No other active player has won more than one.

 

[sb1]

Which of Brady's win totals will be most unbreakable when he retires?

Regular Season - 183 (record is 186.). Next closest active player is Drew Brees at 131.

Postseason - 25 wins (2nd is Montana at 16.). Next closest active player is Ben Roethlisberger at 13.

Super Bowls - 5 wins (2nd is Montana, Bradshaw at 4.). Next closest active players are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning at 2. No other active player has won more than one.

The last one. Those other guys will be lucky to win 1 more never mind 3. Rodgers might have a run in him but not 4 rings worth.

Nobody else is winning 5 at least in our lifetime.

Too much parity. And if another team gets too good for too long we all know what the league will do about that.

 

[sb1]

I don't know if number 5 will be a lock. For Brady to engineer a game winning drive, the usual formula is for the Patriots to suck for the first three quarters. (Note that this does not necessarily apply to playoff games and the Super Bowl, where an opponent like Seattle can just outplay the Pats for three quarters.) The Patriots appear so loaded for the coming regular season, it's hard to see them down in the fourth quarter more than two or three times.

True but that's 7 for the rest of his career not just next season. I can't see him not breaking it somehow unless he decides it's time after he wins another ring next season.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The last one. Those other guys will be lucky to win 1 more never mind 3. Rodgers might have a run in him but not 4 rings worth.

Nobody else is winning 5 at least in our lifetime.

Too much parity. And if another team gets too good for too long we all know what the league will do about that.

I tend to agree with you for a few reasons.

1. QBs play a longer time now than they used to, and the NFL has started talking about an 18 game schedule. If they increase the number of games and years, then inevitably a quarterback will surpass Brady. However, I don't think a QB will ever come close to the same winning percentage (.770+) over a huge number of games, and that is the more impressive stat.

2. For the postseason record, same thing as the regular season record. The NFL has talked about increasing the playoff field to 8 teams, which would likely mean no more byes. Brady has gotten a bye, what, 10 times now? More opportunities against weaker playoff teams will increase postseason wins.

3. My first two potential changes make it even more difficult to achieve #3. In an era of parity where it is so difficult to win consistently, and most Super Bowls come down to the final drive, you add in a longer schedule and an extra playoff hurdle (no longer getting a bye), and winning 5+ championships is bordering on highly improbable, if not impossible.

 

[rochrist]

Hmm. Here's Brady's career averages per game:

1. Pass Yards: 258.8
2. Pass Completions: 22.1
3. Pass Attempts: 34.7
4. Pass TD: 1.92

That means at his career average production he is behind the records by the following number of games:

1. Pass Yards: 40.0 games
2. Pass Completions: 47.8 games
3. Pass Attempts: 55.5 games
4. Pass TD: 43.8

So he'd have to play 3.5 seasons, at his career average performance, to own all four of those records. He can get yards and TDs within three seasons.

Of course, I expect he'll actually be battling Brees, not Favre and Manning, for those records. I won't be surprised if Brees actually ends up owning them, though that'll depend on how soon Brees has to retire.

To beat Brees for the TD record Brees will have to quite at least a year sooner.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

That's true, it's worth noting that Brees is in the conversation for a few of these too. Unless the Saints defense improves I think he'll be behind and throwing a lot often.

He also has the luxury of playing in a dome at least 9 games per year no matter what, similar to Manning

 

[FrodoBagginz]

He gets all of them in 3 years

And he decreases his total career Ints from 152 to 123.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play at a high enough level what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

If he plays 3 years at a high level, all these records are very achievable. I suspect in 2019 he will be playing for another team when he's breaking the records for #1-3.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Hmm. Here's Brady's career averages per game:

1. Pass Yards: 258.8
2. Pass Completions: 22.1
3. Pass Attempts: 34.7
4. Pass TD: 1.92

That means at his career average production he is behind the records by the following number of games:

1. Pass Yards: 40.0 games
2. Pass Completions: 47.8 games
3. Pass Attempts: 55.5 games
4. Pass TD: 43.8

So he'd have to play 3.5 seasons, at his career average performance, to own all four of those records. He can get yards and TDs within three seasons.

Of course, I expect he'll actually be battling Brees, not Favre and Manning, for those records. I won't be surprised if Brees actually ends up owning them, though that'll depend on how soon Brees has to retire.

I'd be curious to see what his averages are for the last, say, 10 years. He has aired it out a lot more in the second half of his career vs the first half. My guess is that the numbers creep up a little bit, which could make 3 seasons to eclipse the records very achievable.

 

[Tony2046]

Hmm. Here's Brady's career averages per game:

1. Pass Yards: 258.8
2. Pass Completions: 22.1
3. Pass Attempts: 34.7
4. Pass TD: 1.92

That means at his career average production he is behind the records by the following number of games:

1. Pass Yards: 40.0 games
2. Pass Completions: 47.8 games
3. Pass Attempts: 55.5 games
4. Pass TD: 43.8

So he'd have to play 3.5 seasons, at his career average performance, to own all four of those records. He can get yards and TDs within three seasons.

Of course, I expect he'll actually be battling Brees, not Favre and Manning, for those records. I won't be surprised if Brees actually ends up owning them, though that'll depend on how soon Brees has to retire.

If you split up his career into pre 2008 and post 2008 his averages are higher in the second half. The following do not include 2000 or 2008 obviously.

Post 2008:

1. Pass Yards: 284.6
2. Pass Completions: 23.8
3. Pass Attempts: 37.1
4. Pass TD: 2.1

1. Pass Yards: 36.4 games
2. Pass Completions: 44.4 games
3. Pass Attempts: 51.9 games
4. Pass TD: 40 games.

If you just look at his last three years: 2014-2016

1. Pass Yards: 282.6
2. Pass Completions: 24.2
3. Pass Attempts: 37.2
4. Pass TD: 2.2

If you just look at his last year: 2016

1. Pass Yards: 296.2
2. Pass Completions: 24.3
3. Pass Attempts: 36.0
4. Pass TD: 2.3


IOW, The 2017 season might be his breakout year.