Predict Brady's career passing records

[Ivan]

I know it's somewhat OT but his passing records have never mattered to me. The winning records are the records that will never be broken. And it goes without saying that he isn't done.

5 Super Bowl Championships-Its hard to see anyone winning 6, but not impossible. Brady could very well put this completely out of reach over the next couple of seasons. The NFL is built for parity and the fact that the Patriots are the only team of the free agency era to have this kind of success shows it will be incredibly hard for one QB to ever match this success.

Championship Games-18 so far. You have to win the most playoff games just to get to the most Championship games, and if Brady gets them back to the Super Bowl next season it will be his 20th Championship game. That's sick 12 AFC Championship games and 8 Super Bowls. I just don't see another QB getting there. For context Montana went to 10.

Wins-Brady already has the most with 208 wins, Manning is second at 200. Unless someone comes in and wins at 80% for almost 20 years it won't be touched, and that's a really safe bet. I won't be surprised if he ends up over 250 total wins.

Play-off wins-25 30+ wins is definitely within the realm of probability, no one is close and it's again really unlikely anyone will come close. For context-Roethlisberger has 13, Flacco 10, and Rodgers 9. Rodgers will ultimately end up 2nd imo.

Winning % Regular season is .779 183-52, and if they go 14-2 or better it means he's won 80% of his games, once again, that's sick, no one will ever come close.

Games over .500 Joe Montana won 117 games, Brady is 131 games over .500.

Passing yards will come and go, and so will 300 yard games, TD's, etc etc etc...., but the winning for Brady is like the scoring for Gretzky, far far away in another place no one will ever get to.

GOAT

 

[Ring 6]

And he decreases his total career Ints from 152 to 123.

Huh?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't know if number 5 will be a lock. For Brady to engineer a game winning drive, the usual formula is for the Patriots to suck for the first three quarters. (Note that this does not necessarily apply to playoff games and the Super Bowl, where an opponent like Seattle can just outplay the Pats for three quarters.) The Patriots appear so loaded for the coming regular season, it's hard to see them down in the fourth quarter more than two or three times.

Here is why game winning drives are stupid and shouldn't even be counted, and hopefully they will be discounted like RBIs in the future.

Consider Peyton Manning the a good example of how game winning drives work. Pro-Football Reference lists all comebacks and game winning drives by Manning, which totals 58 games.

Peyton Manning's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now look closer at the stats.

In 58 games, Manning has 53 INTs.

In 58 games, how many times do we find an instance of at least one of the following:
A. One or more interception thrown.
B. One or less touchdown thrown.

Answer: 47 games. In 47/58 games, Manning had one INT or more, OR one TD or less.

In other words, as you alluded to, part of the formula for a game winning drive often involves mediocre or bad play for much of the game. Check out Aaron Rodgers page of game winning drives. In 11/17 games, he threw 1 TD or less OR 1 INT or more. A stat line is more common for Rodgers, going something with 2+ TD and 0 INT. He throws both a high percentage of TDs AND a very low amount of interceptions, which prevents more opportunities to fall behind and then comeback in the fourth.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=RodgAa00

And looking at Brady's, we get something similar again. In 39/51, he was either 1- TD or 1+ INT. He does not put himself in that situation very often.

 

[DarrylS]

I know it's somewhat OT but his passing records have never mattered to me. The winning records are the records that will never be broken. And it goes without saying that he isn't done.

5 Super Bowl Championships-Its hard to see anyone winning 6, but not impossible. Brady could very well put this completely out of reach over the next couple of seasons. The NFL is built for parity and the fact that the Patriots are the only team of the free agency era to have this kind of success shows it will be incredibly hard for one QB to ever match this success.

Championship Games-18 so far. You have to win the most playoff games just to get to the most Championship games, and if Brady gets them back to the Super Bowl next season it will be his 20th Championship game. That's sick 12 AFC Championship games and 8 Super Bowls. I just don't see another QB getting there. For context Montana went to 10.

Wins-Brady already has the most with 208 wins, Manning is second at 200. Unless someone comes in and wins at 80% for almost 20 years it won't be touched, and that's a really safe bet. I won't be surprised if he ends up over 250 total wins.

Play-off wins-25 30+ wins is definitely within the realm of probability, no one is close and it's again really unlikely anyone will come close. For context-Roethlisberger has 13, Flacco 10, and Rodgers 9. Rodgers will ultimately end up 2nd imo.

Winning % Regular season is .779 183-52, and if they go 14-2 or better it means he's won 80% of his games, once again, that's sick, no one will ever come close.

Games over .500 Joe Montana won 117 games, Brady is 131 games over .500.

Passing yards will come and go, and so will 300 yard games, TD's, etc etc etc...., but the winning for Brady is like the scoring for Gretzky, far far away in another place no one will ever get to.

GOAT

This is the issue, while Manning, Brees and Favre are excellent QB's with big numbers, Brady's numbers where they count is what sets him apart.. winning games, winning playoff games and winning championships are the standards all QB's should be judged by..

Brees will have bigger individual numbers, half of his games are in a climate controlled environment..

All the rest of the numbers are nice, but in the end what we saw in SB LI was enough evidence that dwarfs the rest of the statistics.. all of this in a league that prides itself on "parity"...

 

[Soliel]

I honestly believe he wont retire until all records fall. Theres still hunger in Brady. The nyfl will wind up having to open a psychiatric therapy unit for teams who play against the pats. Thats the record he has by far.. Total number of fans and players driven into psychosis or post playing brady trauma disorder.

 

[Nehalem]

Which of Brady's win totals will be most unbreakable when he retires?

Regular Season - 183 (record is 186.). Next closest active player is Drew Brees at 131.

Postseason - 25 wins (2nd is Montana at 16.). Next closest active player is Ben Roethlisberger at 13.

Super Bowls - 5 wins (2nd is Montana, Bradshaw at 4.). Next closest active players are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning at 2. No other active player has won more than one.

Probably all of them.

Regular Season - Brady's combination of win percentage and longevity are going to be tought to beat. If Brady plays 3 more seasons he pretty easily has this record by 30+ over Manning/Favre(2nd place). So to have a realistic chance of beating a challenger would have to match incredible win % and play 3 more seasons

Post Season - for 15 real seasons Brady is 11/15 for making it to the AFCCG and 7/15 for making it to the Super Bowl. Only way someone tops Brady is if the NFL adds more games. And even then its pretty much impossible for someone to top Brady's success in real terms. If he makes it to the Super Bowl this year that would make it a 50-50 proposition for his career in making the Super Bowl

Super Bowls - Arguably Garopollo has the best chance of any active non-Brady QB to reach 4 or 5 wins. Especially if the Pats keep him this year

 

[Nehalem]

All the rest of the numbers are nice, but in the end what we saw in SB VI was enough evidence that dwarfs the rest of the statistics.. all of this in a league that prides itself on "parity"...

Ah yes, SB VI, when Tom Brady time-traveled back to 1972 to help the Cowboys win their first Super Bowl. That really solidified Brady's greatness for me

 

[mosslost]

Just for fun. Based on how long you think he will play at a high enough level what records do you see him eclipsing? Here are a few

1. Pass Yards: Peyton Manning 71,940. Brady needs 10,359 to beat this mark
2. Pass Completions: Favre 6,300. Brady needs 1,057
3. Pass Attempts: Favre 10,169. Brady needs 1,926
4. Pass TD: Manning 539. Brady needs 84
5. Game winning drives: Manning 56. Brady needs 7

There are other records in there like passer rating and completion percentage but it's tilted toward QB's who have played less seasons and only in the post Polian rule change era so I won't count those.

5 should be a lock. And I actually think #4 is doable if he has a big year this year. The others are tough to beat.

Unless something happens to Brees I don't really seeing Brady competing with Brees for Yards or maybe even TDs. Brees accumulates yards too much faster on average than Brady, is younger, still wants to play in QB starved league, etc. His teams need him to pass all the time too. He is increasing his lead over Brady yearly. Brady really would need to play 7 more years to eclipse Brees, Manning is a non issue on this question. The only thing stopping Brady from passing Manning in any of these will be if Brady can't play 2 and half more seasons at reasonable production. But I think he will playing for second place on the records. The other thing is Brees just has one SB and a lot of losing, so getting that all time record may be very important to him as well.

 

[Ivan]

Ah yes, SB VI, when Tom Brady time-traveled back to 1972 to help the Cowboys win their first Super Bowl. That really solidified Brady's greatness for me

Hater

 

[nabwong]

Which QB has the most kneel downs at the end of the game?

 

[sb1]

If he makes it to the Super Bowl this year that would make it a 50-50 proposition for his career in making the Super Bowl

Yep. That's incredible when you think about it.

 

[sb1]

Which QB has the most kneel downs at the end of the game?

I guess PFR Play Index could query who has the most QB rushes for -1 yards with less than 2 minutes left in the game but I can't figure out how to put it together.

QB kneeldowns can really suck in fantasy. They should count the -1 yards against the team rush total and not the individual QB stat, kind of like what they do for sacks and team passing yards.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

I believe we are about to get a glimpse of uncharted territory, where a QB in his 40's continues to play at the highest level in the league!

If those preseason metrics that the coaches put him through each year CONTINUE to get better, we are looking at another contract extension.

Of course, avoiding the big injury is the wildcard in this.

Hope Tom's a Patriot for 5 more years!

 

[Ivan]

Has Brady ever lost a game in Foxborough when they led at the half?

His winning %!when leading at the half is one the things that separates him as a QB, he's not just a passer he's the one who controls games in such a way that it minimizes the opportunities for teams to get back in the game and give them a chance to win. I doubt there has ever been a better QB in that regard and I believe it has everything to do with their winning percentages and success. We watched a really good Falcons offense simply come undone in that situation, and they have a really smart and talented QB, Brady never would have let that happen.

 

[Ivan]

I believe we are about to get a glimpse of uncharted territory, where a QB in his 40's continues to play at the highest level in the league!

If those preseason metrics that the coaches put him through each year CONTINUE to get better, we are looking at another contract extension.

Of course, avoiding the big injury is the wildcard in this.

Hope Tom's a Patriot for 5 more years!

I get why people think they need a plan of succession, and if actually agree with them that Garrapolo is the best back up they have had, the problem is the timing, and imo Brady is going to continue his success and I would much rather watch him take this to its outer limits than worry about what comes after him. The Brady /Belichick era can be set apart in a way that no franchise will ever have a hope to match it, and that's well worth riding it out.

 

[Nehalem]

Has Brady ever lost a game in Foxborough when they led at the half?

The Patriots are shockingly good at home when leading at halftime
"The Patriots have never lost a regular season game when leading at halftime of a game at Gillette Stadium. Never. "

They did lose the 2012 AFCCG against Baltimore despite leading 13-7 at half time

 

[Ivan]

The Patriots are shockingly good at home when leading at halftime
"The Patriots have never lost a regular season game when leading at halftime of a game at Gillette Stadium. Never. "

They did lose the 2012 AFCCG against Baltimore despite leading 13-7 at half time

Thanks, I was wondering about that. It's still amazing though.

 

[mosslost]

Here is why game winning drives are stupid and shouldn't even be counted, and hopefully they will be discounted like RBIs in the future.

Consider Peyton Manning the a good example of how game winning drives work. Pro-Football Reference lists all comebacks and game winning drives by Manning, which totals 58 games.

Peyton Manning's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Now look closer at the stats.

In 58 games, Manning has 53 INTs.

In 58 games, how many times do we find an instance of at least one of the following:
A. One or more interception thrown.
B. One or less touchdown thrown.

Answer: 47 games. In 47/58 games, Manning had one INT or more, OR one TD or less.

In other words, as you alluded to, part of the formula for a game winning drive often involves mediocre or bad play for much of the game. Check out Aaron Rodgers page of game winning drives. In 11/17 games, he threw 1 TD or less OR 1 INT or more. A stat line is more common for Rodgers, going something with 2+ TD and 0 INT. He throws both a high percentage of TDs AND a very low amount of interceptions, which prevents more opportunities to fall behind and then comeback in the fourth.

Aaron Rodgers's Career 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives | Pro-Football-Reference.com

And looking at Brady's, we get something similar again. In 39/51, he was either 1- TD or 1+ INT. He does not put himself in that situation very often.

Can you tell me why RBIs are bad? Just curious.

 

[Nehalem]

Can you tell me why RBIs are bad? Just curious.

RBIs aren't bad. They are just a stat that is largely dependent on what other people on the team do, and so a poor measure of a players performance.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Can you tell me why RBIs are bad? Just curious.

They are more of a product of scenarios, mainly the number of opportunities and place in the batting order, so a player's batting average, on-base percentage, and home runs would all serve to better assess the player than RBIs. In addition, most Moneyball adherents, and a good amount of MLB teams now, no longer believe an RBI is worth giving up an out, so the idea is that sacrifice flies and bunts are not worth giving up an out, unless it's a late and close game. Following this thought, it is much more valuable to draw a walk with a man on third base than to sacrifice fly him in. Finally, the idea of the RBI was for many years centered around the idea that players had certain "clutch" or better situational hitting than others, but that has largely been disproven through statistics.