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OT-ish: The gambling thread

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by fnordcircle, Sep 9, 2018.

  1. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    One of my books is offering San Fran +3
     
  2. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    2 emotional bets tonight. Not really good numbers but I’m going for it. Lebron over 31 points. Lakers first q -5

    mid they go down big I’ll live ml them.

    eventually going to pound them to win the title
     
  3. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Early Kentucky Derby pick... Toledo... chad brown trainee. Runs in the holy bull stakes at gulfstream tomorrow. 5-2 would be a great price
     
  4. supafly

    supafly James White pays me for shoutouts PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    I can get it at SF+3.5 on FanDuel, but it would cost me -150.
     
  5. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    had to throw a unit on Xander Schauffele at +500 in case he pulls it out. I don’t trust finau. Hopefully Webb can do it for me though
     
  6. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Love it is a bet. Hate it as a Celtics fan.
     
  7. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I lost 280 on that game the other night
     
  8. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah these individual games and quarters are really tough against the spread. I was referring to the futures bet of LAL to win it all. I’m a big fan of futures betting because I feel it is more predictable, and the LAL odds haven’t closed in enough. I think they should be about 50/50 to win it all, which is far off from Vegas. I’m just using common sense that LeBron (besides that fluke last year) hasn’t lost to anyone besides an all-time great team in years, and Davis is his best sidekick ever.
     
  9. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    these plus the Schauffele bet today gets me 21 units on In the positive this week. So up just short of 10 units on the year

    SB 360 to win 504 49ers ml

    20 on mostert first td, kelce first td, and kelce mvp
     
  10. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss 28-3.... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Orange Gatorade and Mahomes 1st TD made my night.


    Otherwise **** that team
     
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  11. supafly

    supafly James White pays me for shoutouts PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Lost my SF moneyline bet. Thanks, Obama.
     
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  12. supafly

    supafly James White pays me for shoutouts PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Also, darn you, Shanahan.
     
  13. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    SF was up 10 with the ball and like 8 minutes left, folllowing Mahomes second INT. That’s a bad beat.
     
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  14. supafly

    supafly James White pays me for shoutouts PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Yeah, that one stings. What hurts even more is that we’re still a full two months away from baseball.
     
  15. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss 28-3.... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I live bet $35 on KC as they were +300 or something. Worth a shot since I have some money on SF ML.

    Most of my $$ were on the stupid prop bets which actually worked this year
     
  16. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ok so the final game of the season is in and the Picker went out on a winning note.

    So overall it did well:

    SB Week Result:
    ATS: 1-0
    SU: 1-0

    Season Results:
    ATS: 107-93-4 (54%) +4.7 units
    SU: 118-86 (58%)

    The picker had a solid season, as any gambler knows winning over the course of the season is extremely hard, going 54% against the spread when picking every single game every week (from week 5 on) is damn near impossible for a person to do. So overall I am happy with the results of the system. But I have some curiosities, and will need a few more seasons of data to see if they are anomalies or if the system just has a weakness in those areas.

    For instance the 3 point area being 27%. At first glance you probably think well yeah 3 point games is basically a pick 'em, well that is true but 27% is so far off from the under 3 point (58%) and 4 point (48%) games that it just makes no sense. It performed best in the 5 point range going 60%. It performed at basically the season average in the 8+ range, which is a bit disappointing as that should be the sweet spot of games to go with each week.

    What I find head scratching is that it did so well in the under 3 point games at 58%, which is also the category which had the most games, actually it accounted for 43% of the games. But overall hard to be unhappy with the results.

    Thank you all for the feedback over the course of the season and being cordial about it. I would like to get some further feedback from you guys. Please see the questions below, these are just some generic questions toss me any feedback you think maybe useful. If for whatever reason you don't want to post your feedback in this thread, feel free to message me.

    1. I would appreciate any constructive feedback on it positive/negative
    2. I would also be interested to hear how you incorporated it (if at all) into your weekly plays
    3. How many people found it useful to some degree
    4. Any thoughts on how it can used on other platforms

    Here is the SB result and the season breakdown:
    SB_picks.JPG
    spread_diff_breakdown_sb.JPG
     
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  17. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    And we are back with another week of golf picks. Webb Simpson outright win bet put us in the positives for the year. Hideki Matsuyama 18th or better helped increase that positive number. By my calculations we are +9.75 units

    ATT Pebble Beach Pro Am

    Outright winners

    Jason Day risk 1.5 units (+1800)
    Brandt Snedeker risk 1 unit (+2000)
    Max Homa risk .5 units (+4500)
    Jimmy Walker risk .5 units (+14500)
    First Round Leader

    Jordan Speith risk .5 units (+3200)
    Phil Mickelson risk .75 units (+1800)
    Finishing Position

    Mickelson risk 1 unit (+250)
    Day 21st or better to win 5 units (-125)


     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2020
  18. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for posting about this...I find it interesting.

    Hitting 54% is definitely very good but not enough to turn a profit. But anyone who turns a profit would not be betting on every game anyway. Which is why the 54% number may be much more impressive in that context.

    Can you find a sample size of, say, your most confident games (where your predictor diverged from the spread the most) and check the percentage on that?
     
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  19. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Praying for SammyBlue Cat PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My last day in Vegas (been here for 2 weeks for work) just put $50 on the Pats to win the SB next year (14-1).
     
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  20. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    dissapointing that Day couldn’t pull out the win. But this week is another profitable week. Looks like +2.75 units for the week bringing the grand total to +12.50
     
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