OT-ish: The gambling thread

2020 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: vs Raiders
Pick Results: LAS: 3.5% at NE: 96.5%
Sun
Sep 27th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
Mods don't touch my thread I'll write an op-ed about you to the NY Times if you do.

I bought a piece of paper tonight. Anyone else engaged in sin?

upload_2018-9-8_21-37-38.png


I don't bet the rest of the league until week 8-10 depending on how good of a grasp I feel I have on the way things are shaking out>

Yes, I bought 1/2 point. @ me idgaf.
 

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BaconGrundleCandy

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Had Bama Over 63, Florida & Clemson Under 26.5 1st Half, Stanford/Hawaii parlay


Looking at Cleveland once it goes back up, Cinci/Over, Miami, Giants & a few more.

Agreed it would be nice to have a gambling thread.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Yes, I bought 1/2 point. @ me idgaf.
Absolutely nothing wrong with buying 1/2 a point, especially when it’s a key number. Winning the bet obviously takes priority over how much the ticket cashes for. It’s easy to overlook that, and I’m sure it’s amplified when you’re throwing a stack on it, but I think there are lots of times where buying a half a point is the smart play.
 
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supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Looking at Cleveland once it goes back up
Why is it down? Weather concerns?

I had Iowa -3 (bought it down from -3.5). I hit the game 13-3, but there was one point where I wondered if I was overthinking things way too much. I wanted VaTech, which wasn’t on my board. I also considered Ohio State, but I have some trouble pulling the trigger on those spreads that are pushing -40. I’ve seen too many scores that are 50-10 and you’re somehow still balls deep in the game with 5 minutes to play.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Mods don't touch my thread I'll write an op-ed about you to the NY Times if you do.

I bought a piece of paper tonight. Anyone else engaged in sin?

View attachment 21174


I don't bet the rest of the league until week 8-10 depending on how good of a grasp I feel I have on the way things are shaking out>

Yes, I bought 1/2 point. @ me idgaf.
That’s a freaking ballsy move, by the way.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Why is it down? Weather concerns?

I had Iowa -3 (bought it down from -3.5). I hit the game 13-3, but there was one point where I wondered if I was overthinking things way too much. I wanted VaTech, which wasn’t on my board. I also considered Ohio State, but I have some trouble pulling the trigger on those spreads that are pushing -40. I’ve seen too many scores that are 50-10 and you’re somehow still balls deep in the game with 5 minutes to play.
People just bought it down I'm guessing. Hoping Pitt gets late money & I get a better #.
I don't mind as I'm more of a "closing #" kinda guy.

Always look at largest home dog
 

luuked

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Got a small combo going on Titans ML, Bengals ML, Rams -4 and a custom -6.5 spread for the Saints at combined odds of about 10:1.

As @fnordcircle has said no point in putting "real" money into this before we have more information. That being said I have found opening day parlays with small bets based on what I have seen in the preseason to be somewhat lucrative since no one has really any clue where to set the line properly yet.
 
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fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
That’s a freaking ballsy move, by the way.
I've done $1k to start the season before and it's turned out terrible. So I'm guaranteed to win this time!

My kids are adults and my wives are exes, so this is what it's like to be single and obligation-free, you can blow a chunk of change and it's whatever if the casino doesn't decide to give me anything back.
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
Absolutely nothing wrong with buying 1/2 a point, especially when it’s a key number. Winning the bet obviously takes priority over how much the ticket cashes for. It’s easy to overlook that, and I’m sure it’s amplified when your throwing a stack on it, but I think there are lots of times where buying a half a point is the smart play.
It's been worse, imo, since they changed XPs to be not quite automatic.

That and 6 1/2 means a TD in overtime is a loser for me. My book gives you 100% of your bet back on a push which obviously, 6 1/2 is impossible to push on so I like to buy the 1/2 back especially at 3 1/2 and 6 1/2.
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
Always look at largest home dog
I remember reading some analysis back like 4-5 years ago that betting nothing but Home dogs would put money in your pocket for like, the previous 5 years. It was an overall thing, though, and you basically had to bet every home dog to have come out ahead, but it was impressive, I could be wrong but I distinctly remember the article making it seem like you'd come out ahead even when you account for the book's take.

Makes sense too. The game isn't guessing the games so much as smart money taking $ from homers. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Pats I'm one of the people swapping bags with the smart money a lot of the time, but whatever.

I wanted to go back and look at how home dogs have fared the last few years to see if the previous streak had held up but I keep forgetting to do so.
 

supafly

Suddenly sad and Brady-less
PatsFans.com Supporter
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
I remember reading some analysis back like 4-5 years ago that betting nothing but Home dogs would put money in your pocket for like, the previous 5 years. It was an overall thing, though, and you basically had to bet every home dog to have come out ahead, but it was impressive, I could be wrong but I distinctly remember the article making it seem like you'd come out ahead even when you account for the book's take.

Makes sense too. The game isn't guessing the games so much as smart money taking $ from homers. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Pats I'm one of the people swapping bags with the smart money a lot of the time, but whatever.

I wanted to go back and look at how home dogs have fared the last few years to see if the previous streak had held up but I keep forgetting to do so.
I’m wondering if it’s not limited to double digit home dogs or straight up money line home dogs? If it’s simply home dogs with the pointspread, I would be slightly surprised although not entirely shocked.
 

DarrylS

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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Coming soon (November) you can bet on football at Twin Rivers Casino in Smithfield, RI... despite that I will never expect to ever understand the subtleties of all of the nuance that goes along with it..
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
Current NFL Week One Odds, per Las Vegas Insider:
Shop around to find slight variations.

Steelers (-3½) at Browns . . . 21-21 tie -- ❌
Niners at Vikings (-6) . . . Vikings 24, Niners 16 -- ✅
Bengals at Colts (-1) . . . Bengals 34, Colts 23 -- ❌
Bills at Ravens (-7½) . . . Ravens 47, Bills 3 -- ✅
Jaguars (-3) at Giants . . . Jaguars 20, Giants 15 -- ✅
Bucs at Saints (-10) . . . Bucs 48, Saints 40 -- ❌
Texans at Pats (-6½) . . . Patriots 27, Texans 20 -- ✅
Titans at Dolphins (PK) . . . Dolphins 27, Titans 20 -- ✅
Chiefs at Chargers (-3½) . . . Chiefs 38, Chargers 28 -- ❌
Seahawks at Broncos (-3) . . . Broncos 27, Seahawks 24 -- Push
Cowboys at Panthers (-3) . . . Panthers 16, Cowboys 8 -- ✅
Skins (-2½) at Cardinals . . . Redskins 24, Cardinals 6 -- ✅
Bears at Packers (-7) . . . Packers 24, Bears 23 -- ❌
Jets at Lions (-6½) . . . Jets 48, Lions 17 -- ❌
Rams (-4½) at Raiders . . . Rams 33, Raiders 13 -- ✅


Of all those games I like Carolina minus-3 the best.
-> Panthers win by 8, to cover by 5 -- ✅

Pittsburgh - despite their history of playing poorly on the road, plus no Le'Veon Bell - is very tempting versus the dysfunctional Browns.
-> Steelers tie, fail to cover by 3 -- ❌

Seattle (3-point underdogs at Denver) and Baltimore (home vs Buffalo) are a couple others worthy of consideration too, IMHO.
-> Seahawks lose by 3 -- Push
-> Ravens cover, winning by 44 -- ✅

(Edited in italics to add final scores and results)
Overall: 8-6-1
Top Picks: 2-1-1
+280 for the week
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
Yeah I really like Carolina by a FG at home, wow. Gotta love Cowboys betters.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I remember reading some analysis back like 4-5 years ago that betting nothing but Home dogs would put money in your pocket for like, the previous 5 years. It was an overall thing, though, and you basically had to bet every home dog to have come out ahead, but it was impressive, I could be wrong but I distinctly remember the article making it seem like you'd come out ahead even when you account for the book's take.

Makes sense too. The game isn't guessing the games so much as smart money taking $ from homers. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Pats I'm one of the people swapping bags with the smart money a lot of the time, but whatever.

I wanted to go back and look at how home dogs have fared the last few years to see if the previous streak had held up but I keep forgetting to do so.
Yea I don't have any #'s rn but single or double digits it's been a money maker for me tbh.

And I agree 100% w the bolded. It's not us against the books but rather smart money vs losing players.
 

Soliel

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I’m still needing to see how they do in a real game to bet. I like the numbers here though
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
I’m wondering if it’s not limited to double digit home dogs or straight up money line home dogs? If it’s simply home dogs with the pointspread, I would be slightly surprised although not entirely shocked.
I wish I could find the article and the year because I don't think it was reliant on the size of the spread but maybe I'm wrong.

Still, if you're looking at football betting as trading bags with dummies, what seems like an easier bet to a dummy than a huge underdog at home?
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
I’m still needing to see how they do in a real game to bet. I like the numbers here though
I just always bet the Pats. Losing money on them doesn't hurt anywhere near as much as when they cover and I don't bet.
 
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