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BaconGrudleCandy the draft God

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Jun 23, 2018.

  1. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I like the feedback & objective look tbh. So w/e you have so spare time I really appreciate both good & bad.
     
  2. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    2015-2017 grades are coming home to bite everyone in the azs. I hate 2017 w a passion & that might have been Twitter's worst period for NFL/Draft Twitter. Anyway since I'm a weirdo & gluten

    1. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina: Full-field reader who has the arm strength, delivery quickness and mobility to be a quality NFL starter, but his lack of overall starting experience bothers some.

    2. Deshaun Watson, Clemson: He is coming off of incredible back-to-back performances in national championship games against Alabama, but his troubling turnover totals are hard to ignore.

    3. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: Sky-high potential with great confidence and a rocket launcher for an arm. Mahomes has to prove he can overcome bad habits mechanically and the stigma of being an Air Raid quarterback.

    4. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh: Peterman isn't flashy and his arm is very average, but he throws with very good ball placement and timing. He's not a rah-rah leader, but he could succeed in the right scheme.

    5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: Kizer has the size and arm strength that should make him an early first-round pick, but his inconsistent accuracy and field vision could lead him to fall further than some expect.

    Sources Tell Us
    "He's got a great arm ... and he's mobile. He is going to drive his head coach crazy for the first couple of years and there is no getting around that. If it clicks for him and he's coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback." -- NFC executive on Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes

    Most overrated

    Davis Webb, Cal: There has been a growing buzz from the media that Webb could be a first-round selection in this year's draft. If that is the case, then I clearly missed out on game tape from secret underground games that took place because I don't see that type of grade in the games I watched. I like his size, pocket mobility and release quickness, but his lack of anticipation and inconsistency throwing outside the numbers are a big concern for me. On top of that, Webb is in that exclusive group of quarterbacks who are trying to crack the NFL code coming from Air Raid offenses.

    Most underrated

    Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh: It didn't take very long into my tape work for me to see some things in Peterman's game that made me very excited. First off, he throws with excellent timing and anticipation, which helps to mitigate his average arm strength. Secondly, he can throw with the best ball placement of any quarterback in this draft. He has average size, an average arm and average numbers, but he is a full-field reader with anticipation and above-average accuracy. He has a shot to be this year's Kirk Cousins.

    Boom or bust

    Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: It might not be a stretch to say that he will get a head coach a lucrative long-term extension or he will get that same coach a pink slip out of town. While DeShone Kizer deserves the "boom-or-bust" label as well, Mahomes is the headliner in the category. He has good size, tremendous confidence and a blue-chip arm, but his footwork and mechanics are a dumpster fire on tape and his penchant for improvising outside of the offense will drive coaches crazy. But the boom potential is absolutely there. Mahomes has good mental makeup and has proven he can handle the pressures of shouldering a heavy offensive load. I don't see a middle ground for him.

    Sleeper alert

    Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee: It's hard to come up with a "sleeper" in this year's draft, but Dobbs will get the tag this season. Dobbs has good size, is a very good athlete and has exceptional intelligence. However, he doesn't throw with accuracy and he doesn't always make great reads. He has traits to work with and there is a chance he can become a quality backup with the right coach and the right system.

    Follow Lance Zierlein on Twitter
     
  3. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    10)Peterman probably shouldn’t be drafted, but he played in a pro-style offense and has good athleticism which will be enough to convince a team to take him.

    The 22-year-old was essentially a game manager for Pitt. Most of his attempts came off play-action fakes and roll outs. The offense did not feature a lot of complex reads, which would have given Peterman problems. He’s slow to recognize coverages post-snap and hesitated far too often.

    Peterman will need at least a year to get more comfortable with making pro-level reads before he’s even ready to play a backup role. Only a teams with a firmly entrenched starters should look at Peterman in the draft.
    5th-6th Rd

    9)CJ Beathard
    Beathard is another quarterback whose draft stock has been inflated because he played in a pro-style offense at Iowa. He’s an unspectacular prospect, but he’s comfortable in a pocket and knows how to take snaps from under center.

    Unfortunately, that’s where his positive traits end. Beathard doesn’t have much arm strength, he’s not very accurate (especially on deeper throws) and he holds the ball for an eternity. He’s going to take A LOT of sacks if he ever gets a chance to play in the NFL.

    Beathard could develop into a solid backup, but that’s really his ceiling. He just doesn’t have enough physical tools to be a long-term starter.

    Grade: Fifth to Sixth Round

    8)Davis Webb
    This our first surprise ranking (Spoiler alert: There are more to come), as Webb is getting some first-round buzz as we get closer to draft day.

    It’s easy to see why teams may talk themselves into Webb: He’s tall, he can sling it and he’s accurate enough to play in the NFL. But his tape isn’t all that impressive. Webb’s decision-making is questionable at best, he takes far too long to make decisions and his accuracy just disappears against any type of pressure.
    Webb is a project. A long-term project, at that. He’s the kind of pick that will get a GM fired, which will probably scare teams off from taking him on the first night of the draft. He won’t make it past the second night, though. And even at that point, it’s a bit of a reach.

    Grade: Fourth Round

    7)Josh Dobbs
    I want to fall in love Dobbs as a prospect, but he just has too much Robert Griffin III in his game. He just looks awkward when moving around in the pocket. He’s all arms and legs and doesn’t do a great job of protecting himself when he takes off and runs. With such a lithe frame, it’s going to be hard for Dobbs to stay healthy.

    The 22-year-old is underrated as a pocket passer. He’s willing to go through his progressions for the most part and, at times, he’ll show off some deft pocket movement while keep his eyes downfield.
    Decision-making is an issue. Dobbs throws a lot of passes into coverage and doesn’t do a great job of manipulating safeties with his eyes. Maybe that will come with more experience, because it definitely isn’t an intelligence issue. The dude is a literal rocket scientist.

    Some team will give Dobbs a chance to start, and his future in the league will come down to the system around him. A good coach will clean up his mechanics and teach him how to avoid those back-breaking decisions. If he finds himself one of those coaches, he has the potential to be a league-average starter in the NFL.

    Grade: Third to Fourth Round


    6)Pat Mahomes
    Mahomes may not be my top quarterback prospect but he was certainly the most fun to watch. The guy makes a handful of ridiculous plays every game thanks to one of the best arms you will ever see.

    I mean look at this throw he made against Louisiana Tech.

    No one (outside of maybe Aaron Rodgers) is making that throw in the NFL.

    Here’s another ridiculous throw from the same game. It’s downright Favre-ian.

    [​IMG]

    But, Mahomes is sixth on this list for a reason. That great arm got him into a lot of trouble. He makes Brett Favre look like a game manager by comparison at times. You could put together 10-minute reel of awful decisions from his 2016 season alone. Some are just inexplicable.

    [​IMG]

    His mechanics may be even worse than his decision-making. He got away with it in college, but you can’t leave gimme throws on the field, and Mahomes does that far to often because of lazy footwork.
    Mahomes will also miss receiver running wide open because he’s too busy trying to make a play with his feet, which, at the next level, will lead to him running into a bunch of sacks.

    [​IMG]

    Mahomes’ arm will get him drafted in the first two rounds. Some coach will think they can tame him, but this kind of quarterback has never enjoyed long-term success in the NFL. Russell Wilson is top-10 quarterback who can play off-script consistently, but his mechanics are nearly perfect. That will never be the case for Mahomes.


    5)Brad Kaaya
    If I had to win an NFL game tomorrow and I had to pick a quarterback from this group, Kaaya might be my choice. He’s as polished a prospect as you’ll find in this class and really any one since Luck went first-overall in 2012.

    Kaaya will never be a top-level NFL starter — he doesn’t have enough arm strength and his accuracy isn’t consistent — but he’s got enough tools to thrive in the right system with s good supporting cast around him, like a Kirk Cousins. In fact, if I’m in Washington’s front office, I’m making sure he doesn’t get past us in the third round, just in case the team loses Cousins next offseason.

    Kaaya is your prototypical pocket quarterback. He’s played in a pro-style offense and knows all the necessary footwork to play at the next level. He’s comfortable in a tight pocket and doesn’t look to bail at the first sign of pressure. And he’s capable of getting through his progressions in a timely manner.
    The biggest concern is his intermediate and deep accuracy. He leaves too many big plays on the field. He also doesn’t make a lot of plays outside the structure of the offense. For those reasons, he’ll max out as a system quarterback, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing provided he lands in the right system.
    Grade: Third round

    4)Jerod Evans
    I’m a sucker for quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to hang in the pocket and make throws with bodies around them. It’s a trait that you just can’t teach and Evans has it.

    [​IMG]

    He also has an arm capable of making any throw and the athleticism to be a major factor in the run game at the NFL level.

    [​IMG]

    Evans will be dinged by scouts for playing in a spread. That’s not fair. This isn’t a case of a player being propped up by a system. If anything, playing in Justin Fuente’s offense may have masked just how good a prospect Evans may be. He didn’t have the opportunity to make a whole lot of full-field reads, but he did show the ability to do so when asked to.

    His accuracy and decision-making under pressure is a big concern. If a coach can clean up his mechanics and convince him to take his checkdown more often, Evans will be a special player — especially if he gets to play behind a good offensive line.

    Grade: Third Round


    Deshaun Watson
    This is the point in the rankings where the #QBWINZ crowd loses its mind. Yes, Watson went 32-3 at Clemson but he also played for one of the deepest teams in the country. And, there is plenty to like about his game outside of the success his Tigers have enjoyed over the last two years.

    Is Watson a great pocket passer at this point in his career? No, but he’s shown potential. When his initial read (be it a receiver or a route combination) is open, Watson displays calm feet and fluid mechanics.
    It’s when he’s forced to resort to Plan B where Watson doesn’t look so great. And that’s when you start to see the mistakes that led to him leading FBS in interceptions thrown.

    [​IMG]

    Downfield accuracy is also a concern. Watson missed far too many receivers running wide open downfield with wild overthrows.

    [​IMG]

    So what makes Watson a top-three prospect in this class? Most of his problems appear to be fixable. There are flashes of greatness throughout his tape and he’s only 21. Watson has plenty of time to unlock all of his potential and develop into a good pocket passer.

    We haven’t even mentioned his athleticism yet. He may not be a complete passer from the jump, but a good coach will be able to build around his physical gifts while he sharpens the rest of the game, similar to what Seattle did with Russell Wilson.

    Grade: Second Round

    2)M Trubisky
    In all likelihood, Trubisky will be the first quarterback off the board come draft day. NFL scouts may hate spread quarterbacks, but put a quarterback with the “look” (i.e. big and white) in a spread, and the scouts don’t seem to mind him not being familiar with pro-style concepts. The difference between how scouts talk about Watson and Trubisky is telling.

    “Clemson’s offense was too simple and he’ll will have problems handling more complex concepts and coverages” is the common criticism of Watson. Trubisky, meanwhile, “just needs more experience,” which ignores the fact that North Carolina’s system was just as simplistic as Clemson’s.


    That’s what makes it so difficult to evaluate Trubisky. We don’t really know how he’ll handle an NFL pocket. He had a tendency to slip out the back of the pocket rather than climbing it; that will get him into trouble in the NFL. He also had a lot of trouble recognizing disguised coverages. Stanford repeatedly fooled him with post-snap coverage rotations during the Belk Bowl.

    [​IMG]

    And like almost every prospect on this list, Trubisky will need to shore up his mechanics if he’s ever going to reach his potential. He’s got a great arm but he misses a lot of throws downfield.

    I’ve been bagging on Trubisky a lot, but he’s No. 2 on this list for a reason. He made a number of “WOW” throws throughout the season and improved in the pocket as the season went on.

    If that trend continues, and Trubisky continues to solve some of the issues that showed up on his tape early on during the 2016 season, he’ll be a good NFL starter. He’s ahead of Watson on this list because he has a much higher ceiling even if his floor is significantly lower.

    Grade: First Round

    1)Deshone Kizer

    Kizer is nowhere near a finished product. He has a hitch in his throwing motion that can limit what is otherwise a special arm. He’ll make odd decisions at times, turning down open receiver or throwing right into coverage and his accuracy needs to improve if he’s going to make it as an NFL starter.

    There are also moments throughout his tape where Kizer looks like a top-five pick. He’s an athletic quarterback who can take over a game with his legs, and it’s rare for those quarterbacks to be good in the pocket. Kizer is. He’s at home in the pocket thanks to his height, which allows him to slide through the pressure while keeping his eyes downfield.
    Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said Kizer should’ve returned for one more year in South Bend but I’m not sure how that would have benefitted him. The sooner he can get with NFL coaches, who will clean up his mechanical issue (which Inside the Pylon did a fantastic job of breaking down here) and further enhance his knowledge of coverages and how to attack them, the better.

    There are absolutely no concerns about his arm strength. He can sling it more than 65 yards in the air without sacrificing accuracy.
    The concerns with Kizer are no different from the concerns with just about every quarterback drafted in the last decade. He holds the ball a little too long while trying to decipher what the defense is doing. He needs to do a better job of changing velocity when the situation calls for it. He’ll miss some reads from time to time. These are all issues that will hurt Kizer early in his career, but he should improve in all these areas with more reps.

    His strengths easily out number his weaknesses, though. Kizer made full-field reads and was given plenty of pre-snap responsibility. He’s a threat in run game, which will affect the kind of coverages defensive coordinators can throw at him. And there isn’t a throw he can’t make.

    Grade: First Round


     
  4. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Walter had em
    Trubisky
    Watson
    Mahomes
    Kiser
    Webb
    Kaaya
    Peterman
    Dobbs
    Kelly
    Evans


    SI
    Watson
    Mahomes
    Kizer
    Trubisky
    Kaaya
    Peterman
    Evans
    Webb
    Dobbs
    Kelly

    Fox Sports
    Trubisky
    Kizer
    Watson
    Peterman
    Kaaya
    Evans
    Webb
    Mahomes
    Beathard
    Gustafson

    Pff
    Trubisky
    Watson
    Mahomes
    Kizer
    Peterman
    Kaaya
    Kelly
    Dobbs
    Webb
    Beathard

    Draft Wire
    Watson
    Trubisky
    Kizer
    Falk
    Rudolph
    Kaaya
    Mahomes
    Rush
    Webb
    Gustafson

    NFL Mocks
    Trubisky
    Mahomes
    Watson
    Kizer
    Evans


    Draft Tek
    Trubisky
    Mahomes
    Watson
    Kizer
    Webb
    Peterman
    Dobbs
    Kaaya
    Kelly
    Evans
     
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    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019

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