BaconGrudleCandy the draft God

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'm always willing to check out your grades and thoughts on players. As for compensation, I think getting all your content for free is more than enough. . I feel like we all should be all be sending you $9.99 a month (if not more). That be one of the cheaper draft subscriptions you could get, your content should come at a premium.

I like the feedback & objective look tbh. So w/e you have so spare time I really appreciate both good & bad.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

2015-2017 grades are coming home to bite everyone in the azs. I hate 2017 w a passion & that might have been Twitter's worst period for NFL/Draft Twitter. Anyway since I'm a weirdo & gluten

1. Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina: Full-field reader who has the arm strength, delivery quickness and mobility to be a quality NFL starter, but his lack of overall starting experience bothers some.

2. Deshaun Watson, Clemson: He is coming off of incredible back-to-back performances in national championship games against Alabama, but his troubling turnover totals are hard to ignore.

3. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: Sky-high potential with great confidence and a rocket launcher for an arm. Mahomes has to prove he can overcome bad habits mechanically and the stigma of being an Air Raid quarterback.

4. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh: Peterman isn't flashy and his arm is very average, but he throws with very good ball placement and timing. He's not a rah-rah leader, but he could succeed in the right scheme.

5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: Kizer has the size and arm strength that should make him an early first-round pick, but his inconsistent accuracy and field vision could lead him to fall further than some expect.

Sources Tell Us
"He's got a great arm ... and he's mobile. He is going to drive his head coach crazy for the first couple of years and there is no getting around that. If it clicks for him and he's coachable, I think he could become a special quarterback." -- NFC executive on Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes

Most overrated

Davis Webb, Cal: There has been a growing buzz from the media that Webb could be a first-round selection in this year's draft. If that is the case, then I clearly missed out on game tape from secret underground games that took place because I don't see that type of grade in the games I watched. I like his size, pocket mobility and release quickness, but his lack of anticipation and inconsistency throwing outside the numbers are a big concern for me. On top of that, Webb is in that exclusive group of quarterbacks who are trying to crack the NFL code coming from Air Raid offenses.

Most underrated

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh: It didn't take very long into my tape work for me to see some things in Peterman's game that made me very excited. First off, he throws with excellent timing and anticipation, which helps to mitigate his average arm strength. Secondly, he can throw with the best ball placement of any quarterback in this draft. He has average size, an average arm and average numbers, but he is a full-field reader with anticipation and above-average accuracy. He has a shot to be this year's Kirk Cousins.

Boom or bust

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: It might not be a stretch to say that he will get a head coach a lucrative long-term extension or he will get that same coach a pink slip out of town. While DeShone Kizer deserves the "boom-or-bust" label as well, Mahomes is the headliner in the category. He has good size, tremendous confidence and a blue-chip arm, but his footwork and mechanics are a dumpster fire on tape and his penchant for improvising outside of the offense will drive coaches crazy. But the boom potential is absolutely there. Mahomes has good mental makeup and has proven he can handle the pressures of shouldering a heavy offensive load. I don't see a middle ground for him.

Sleeper alert

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee: It's hard to come up with a "sleeper" in this year's draft, but Dobbs will get the tag this season. Dobbs has good size, is a very good athlete and has exceptional intelligence. However, he doesn't throw with accuracy and he doesn't always make great reads. He has traits to work with and there is a chance he can become a quality backup with the right coach and the right system.

Follow Lance Zierlein on Twitter

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

10)Peterman probably shouldn’t be drafted, but he played in a pro-style offense and has good athleticism which will be enough to convince a team to take him.

The 22-year-old was essentially a game manager for Pitt. Most of his attempts came off play-action fakes and roll outs. The offense did not feature a lot of complex reads, which would have given Peterman problems. He’s slow to recognize coverages post-snap and hesitated far too often.

Peterman will need at least a year to get more comfortable with making pro-level reads before he’s even ready to play a backup role. Only a teams with a firmly entrenched starters should look at Peterman in the draft.
5th-6th Rd

9)CJ Beathard
Beathard is another quarterback whose draft stock has been inflated because he played in a pro-style offense at Iowa. He’s an unspectacular prospect, but he’s comfortable in a pocket and knows how to take snaps from under center.

Unfortunately, that’s where his positive traits end. Beathard doesn’t have much arm strength, he’s not very accurate (especially on deeper throws) and he holds the ball for an eternity. He’s going to take A LOT of sacks if he ever gets a chance to play in the NFL.

Beathard could develop into a solid backup, but that’s really his ceiling. He just doesn’t have enough physical tools to be a long-term starter.

Grade: Fifth to Sixth Round

8)Davis Webb
This our first surprise ranking (Spoiler alert: There are more to come), as Webb is getting some first-round buzz as we get closer to draft day.

It’s easy to see why teams may talk themselves into Webb: He’s tall, he can sling it and he’s accurate enough to play in the NFL. But his tape isn’t all that impressive. Webb’s decision-making is questionable at best, he takes far too long to make decisions and his accuracy just disappears against any type of pressure.
Webb is a project. A long-term project, at that. He’s the kind of pick that will get a GM fired, which will probably scare teams off from taking him on the first night of the draft. He won’t make it past the second night, though. And even at that point, it’s a bit of a reach.

Grade: Fourth Round

7)Josh Dobbs
I want to fall in love Dobbs as a prospect, but he just has too much Robert Griffin III in his game. He just looks awkward when moving around in the pocket. He’s all arms and legs and doesn’t do a great job of protecting himself when he takes off and runs. With such a lithe frame, it’s going to be hard for Dobbs to stay healthy.

The 22-year-old is underrated as a pocket passer. He’s willing to go through his progressions for the most part and, at times, he’ll show off some deft pocket movement while keep his eyes downfield.
Decision-making is an issue. Dobbs throws a lot of passes into coverage and doesn’t do a great job of manipulating safeties with his eyes. Maybe that will come with more experience, because it definitely isn’t an intelligence issue. The dude is a literal rocket scientist.

Some team will give Dobbs a chance to start, and his future in the league will come down to the system around him. A good coach will clean up his mechanics and teach him how to avoid those back-breaking decisions. If he finds himself one of those coaches, he has the potential to be a league-average starter in the NFL.

Grade: Third to Fourth Round


6)Pat Mahomes
Mahomes may not be my top quarterback prospect but he was certainly the most fun to watch. The guy makes a handful of ridiculous plays every game thanks to one of the best arms you will ever see.

I mean look at this throw he made against Louisiana Tech.

No one (outside of maybe Aaron Rodgers) is making that throw in the NFL.

Here’s another ridiculous throw from the same game. It’s downright Favre-ian.

But, Mahomes is sixth on this list for a reason. That great arm got him into a lot of trouble. He makes Brett Favre look like a game manager by comparison at times. You could put together 10-minute reel of awful decisions from his 2016 season alone. Some are just inexplicable.

His mechanics may be even worse than his decision-making. He got away with it in college, but you can’t leave gimme throws on the field, and Mahomes does that far to often because of lazy footwork.
Mahomes will also miss receiver running wide open because he’s too busy trying to make a play with his feet, which, at the next level, will lead to him running into a bunch of sacks.

Mahomes’ arm will get him drafted in the first two rounds. Some coach will think they can tame him, but this kind of quarterback has never enjoyed long-term success in the NFL. Russell Wilson is top-10 quarterback who can play off-script consistently, but his mechanics are nearly perfect. That will never be the case for Mahomes.

5)Brad Kaaya
If I had to win an NFL game tomorrow and I had to pick a quarterback from this group, Kaaya might be my choice. He’s as polished a prospect as you’ll find in this class and really any one since Luck went first-overall in 2012.

Kaaya will never be a top-level NFL starter — he doesn’t have enough arm strength and his accuracy isn’t consistent — but he’s got enough tools to thrive in the right system with s good supporting cast around him, like a Kirk Cousins. In fact, if I’m in Washington’s front office, I’m making sure he doesn’t get past us in the third round, just in case the team loses Cousins next offseason.

Kaaya is your prototypical pocket quarterback. He’s played in a pro-style offense and knows all the necessary footwork to play at the next level. He’s comfortable in a tight pocket and doesn’t look to bail at the first sign of pressure. And he’s capable of getting through his progressions in a timely manner.
The biggest concern is his intermediate and deep accuracy. He leaves too many big plays on the field. He also doesn’t make a lot of plays outside the structure of the offense. For those reasons, he’ll max out as a system quarterback, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing provided he lands in the right system.
Grade: Third round

4)Jerod Evans
I’m a sucker for quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to hang in the pocket and make throws with bodies around them. It’s a trait that you just can’t teach and Evans has it.

He also has an arm capable of making any throw and the athleticism to be a major factor in the run game at the NFL level.

Evans will be dinged by scouts for playing in a spread. That’s not fair. This isn’t a case of a player being propped up by a system. If anything, playing in Justin Fuente’s offense may have masked just how good a prospect Evans may be. He didn’t have the opportunity to make a whole lot of full-field reads, but he did show the ability to do so when asked to.

His accuracy and decision-making under pressure is a big concern. If a coach can clean up his mechanics and convince him to take his checkdown more often, Evans will be a special player — especially if he gets to play behind a good offensive line.

Grade: Third Round

Deshaun Watson
This is the point in the rankings where the #QBWINZ crowd loses its mind. Yes, Watson went 32-3 at Clemson but he also played for one of the deepest teams in the country. And, there is plenty to like about his game outside of the success his Tigers have enjoyed over the last two years.

Is Watson a great pocket passer at this point in his career? No, but he’s shown potential. When his initial read (be it a receiver or a route combination) is open, Watson displays calm feet and fluid mechanics.
It’s when he’s forced to resort to Plan B where Watson doesn’t look so great. And that’s when you start to see the mistakes that led to him leading FBS in interceptions thrown.

Downfield accuracy is also a concern. Watson missed far too many receivers running wide open downfield with wild overthrows.

So what makes Watson a top-three prospect in this class? Most of his problems appear to be fixable. There are flashes of greatness throughout his tape and he’s only 21. Watson has plenty of time to unlock all of his potential and develop into a good pocket passer.

We haven’t even mentioned his athleticism yet. He may not be a complete passer from the jump, but a good coach will be able to build around his physical gifts while he sharpens the rest of the game, similar to what Seattle did with Russell Wilson.

Grade: Second Round

2)M Trubisky
In all likelihood, Trubisky will be the first quarterback off the board come draft day. NFL scouts may hate spread quarterbacks, but put a quarterback with the “look” (i.e. big and white) in a spread, and the scouts don’t seem to mind him not being familiar with pro-style concepts. The difference between how scouts talk about Watson and Trubisky is telling.

“Clemson’s offense was too simple and he’ll will have problems handling more complex concepts and coverages” is the common criticism of Watson. Trubisky, meanwhile, “just needs more experience,” which ignores the fact that North Carolina’s system was just as simplistic as Clemson’s.


That’s what makes it so difficult to evaluate Trubisky. We don’t really know how he’ll handle an NFL pocket. He had a tendency to slip out the back of the pocket rather than climbing it; that will get him into trouble in the NFL. He also had a lot of trouble recognizing disguised coverages. Stanford repeatedly fooled him with post-snap coverage rotations during the Belk Bowl.

And like almost every prospect on this list, Trubisky will need to shore up his mechanics if he’s ever going to reach his potential. He’s got a great arm but he misses a lot of throws downfield.

I’ve been bagging on Trubisky a lot, but he’s No. 2 on this list for a reason. He made a number of “WOW” throws throughout the season and improved in the pocket as the season went on.
If that trend continues, and Trubisky continues to solve some of the issues that showed up on his tape early on during the 2016 season, he’ll be a good NFL starter. He’s ahead of Watson on this list because he has a much higher ceiling even if his floor is significantly lower.

Grade: First Round

1)Deshone Kizer
Kizer is nowhere near a finished product. He has a hitch in his throwing motion that can limit what is otherwise a special arm. He’ll make odd decisions at times, turning down open receiver or throwing right into coverage and his accuracy needs to improve if he’s going to make it as an NFL starter.

There are also moments throughout his tape where Kizer looks like a top-five pick. He’s an athletic quarterback who can take over a game with his legs, and it’s rare for those quarterbacks to be good in the pocket. Kizer is. He’s at home in the pocket thanks to his height, which allows him to slide through the pressure while keeping his eyes downfield.
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said Kizer should’ve returned for one more year in South Bend but I’m not sure how that would have benefitted him. The sooner he can get with NFL coaches, who will clean up his mechanical issue (which Inside the Pylon did a fantastic job of breaking down here) and further enhance his knowledge of coverages and how to attack them, the better.

There are absolutely no concerns about his arm strength. He can sling it more than 65 yards in the air without sacrificing accuracy.
The concerns with Kizer are no different from the concerns with just about every quarterback drafted in the last decade. He holds the ball a little too long while trying to decipher what the defense is doing. He needs to do a better job of changing velocity when the situation calls for it. He’ll miss some reads from time to time. These are all issues that will hurt Kizer early in his career, but he should improve in all these areas with more reps.

His strengths easily out number his weaknesses, though. Kizer made full-field reads and was given plenty of pre-snap responsibility. He’s a threat in run game, which will affect the kind of coverages defensive coordinators can throw at him. And there isn’t a throw he can’t make.

Grade: First Round

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Walter had em
Trubisky
Watson
Mahomes
Kiser
Webb
Kaaya
Peterman
Dobbs
Kelly
Evans


SI
Watson
Mahomes
Kizer
Trubisky
Kaaya
Peterman
Evans
Webb
Dobbs
Kelly

Fox Sports
Trubisky
Kizer
Watson
Peterman
Kaaya
Evans
Webb
Mahomes
Beathard
Gustafson

Pff
Trubisky
Watson
Mahomes
Kizer
Peterman
Kaaya
Kelly
Dobbs
Webb
Beathard

Draft Wire
Watson
Trubisky
Kizer
Falk
Rudolph
Kaaya
Mahomes
Rush
Webb
Gustafson

NFL Mocks
Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Kizer
Evans


Draft Tek
Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Kizer
Webb
Peterman
Dobbs
Kaaya
Kelly
Evans

 

[BobDigital]

And an overdue bump. Covid threw everything out of whack, so i wanted to give this season sometime to breath before i did my review. 2017 was a year a lot of people got wrong. It is BY FAR the worst year Bacon has ever had. Still, Bacon's worst year is the best year for many people paid to do this for a living.

2017 - Bacon had 27 first round grades 52 second round grades and a **** ton of third round grades.

In the first one Bacon had 15 hits, 11 misses and 1 TBD. That is a first for me. I simply couldn't decide on Reuben Foster. I'll decide on how to rank him next year. For now I'll say he hit 15/26 for 58% That will knock his first round accuracy which has frankly been super human back to earth. Frankly this was probably a long time coming. His 95% rate was not sustainable. Keep in mind if you hit 3 of 4 you are paid millions of dollars.

What surprised me in the first is how clear the divide was. Bacon missed hard on Edge, DL and CB but pretty much nailed everything else. He went 2/7 on edge. 1/3 on CB and 1/4 on DL. Positions he usually hits at a very high rate. His misses ranged from guys who everyone had as sure fire locks like Solomon Thomas to guys who weren't even drafted like Joe Mathis. Overall most of his misses went high and were guys many other people missed on.

For second rounders Bacon went 35 for 52. 67% around his usual hit rate for those picks. His best hit here easily was Godwin who was picked 84 and was one of his highest 2nd round graded players. He hit amazingly well on offense, particularly skill players. And was missed some on D. So overall this draft he was great on offense but meh on D oddly. Also QB which has historically been his weakest spot was a 3 for 3 here. Though Watson and Mahomes should have been first rounders

Again, going by the eye test he did okay on his third round picks. He had Kittle there which is nice. Overall rounds 2 and 3 were more standard for what Bacon usually gives us.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

And an overdue bump. Covid threw everything out of whack, so i wanted to give this season sometime to breath before i did my review. 2017 was a year a lot of people got wrong. It is BY FAR the worst year Bacon has ever had. Still, Bacon's worst year is the best year for many people paid to do this for a living.

2017 - Bacon had 27 first round grades 52 second round grades and a **** ton of third round grades.

In the first one Bacon had 15 hits, 11 misses and 1 TBD. That is a first for me. I simply couldn't decide on Reuben Foster. I'll decide on how to rank him next year. For now I'll say he hit 15/26 for 58% That will knock his first round accuracy which has frankly been super human back to earth. Frankly this was probably a long time coming. His 95% rate was not sustainable. Keep in mind if you hit 3 of 4 you are paid millions of dollars.

What surprised me in the first is how clear the divide was. Bacon missed hard on Edge, DL and CB but pretty much nailed everything else. He went 2/7 on edge. 1/3 on CB and 1/4 on DL. Positions he usually hits at a very high rate. His misses ranged from guys who everyone had as sure fire locks like Solomon Thomas to guys who weren't even drafted like Joe Mathis. Overall most of his misses went high and were guys many other people missed on.

For second rounders Bacon went 35 for 52. 67% around his usual hit rate for those picks. His best hit here easily was Godwin who was picked 84 and was one of his highest 2nd round graded players. He hit amazingly well on offense, particularly skill players. And was missed some on D. So overall this draft he was great on offense but meh on D oddly. Also QB which has historically been his weakest spot was a 3 for 3 here. Though Watson and Mahomes should have been first rounders

Again, going by the eye test he did okay on his third round picks. He had Kittle there which is nice. Overall rounds 2 and 3 were more standard for what Bacon usually gives us.

Just the other day I said I could throw 2017 in the ocean. By far my worst year. Just really poor all around. I should have been much better. Way too many first round grades. That kills me bc it tells me I fell in love too many prospects. Mainly the edge/rush class. Rookie mistakes. I give myself a tiny break with Mathis & Garcia but not much. I knew they were banged up but not to the extent they were. Any Intel on their situations would have resulted in a drop in value but it is what it is. Way too low on Mahomes. Obviously Watson too but with his injury I get why I was a lil low. Mahomes should have been in the 9's, 9.28-9.44. Watson should have been 8.75-9.00. Watson is so good. Even tore the ACL again and still came back unbelievable. Bottom line I just wasn't good in 2017.

2018 looks better. Not sure about 2019 yet. Very interested in both those. Curious to see where I'm at after 10 years. I want to do 20 with any luck. Besides the Matt Miller, LZ, Brugler's, guys who put their grades out there. There isn't a ton of sample size for amateurs & hobbyist like me. Again there's little light on who's good Or not.

I really appreciate this Bob. Good or bad I'm always interested in how I do. I definitely look forward to this. Especially in certain areas or positions. I like knowing for example that QB has been a weak spot for me among the other positions. I'd rather be aware and try to improve if I can. It sucks to hear lol but I like getting specific so deep down I really appreciate the attention to detail in that sense. Again thank you. Wish you'd let me throw you a few bucks for a bottle or a meal on me or something.

Plus it's cool to look at and something different to talk about. One of the things I really find interesting is how certain positions have changed but stayed the same. I always enjoy position battles. Like you'll have a guy as a clear cut CB1 but a trade putting someone somewhere else puts them in the right spot. Rambling but Gilmore for example. Robert Woods. Both ex bills. They've let go of some serious talent over the years. I also love looking at which classes really shaped the game we're watching in front of us. 2003-2004. 2007-2008. 2011-2014. For example. Big influences and imprints.

 

[BobDigital]

Just the other day I said I could throw 2017 in the ocean. By far my worst year. Just really poor all around. I should have been much better. Way too many first round grades. That kills me bc it tells me I fell in love too many prospects. Mainly the edge/rush class. Rookie mistakes. I give myself a tiny break with Mathis & Garcia but not much. I knew they were banged up but not to the extent they were. Any Intel on their situations would have resulted in a drop in value but it is what it is. Way too low on Mahomes. Obviously Watson too but with his injury I get why I was a lil low. Mahomes should have been in the 9's, 9.28-9.44. Watson should have been 8.75-9.00. Watson is so good. Even tore the ACL again and still came back unbelievable. Bottom line I just wasn't good in 2017.

2018 looks better. Not sure about 2019 yet. Very interested in both those. Curious to see where I'm at after 10 years. I want to do 20 with any luck. Besides the Matt Miller, LZ, Brugler's, guys who put their grades out there. There isn't a ton of sample size for amateurs & hobbyist like me. Again there's little light on who's good Or not.

I really appreciate this Bob. Good or bad I'm always interested in how I do. I definitely look forward to this. Especially in certain areas or positions. I like knowing for example that QB has been a weak spot for me among the other positions. I'd rather be aware and try to improve if I can. It sucks to hear lol but I like getting specific so deep down I really appreciate the attention to detail in that sense. Again thank you. Wish you'd let me throw you a few bucks for a bottle or a meal on me or something.

Plus it's cool to look at and something different to talk about. One of the things I really find interesting is how certain positions have changed but stayed the same. I always enjoy position battles. Like you'll have a guy as a clear cut CB1 but a trade putting someone somewhere else puts them in the right spot. Rambling but Gilmore for example. Robert Woods. Both ex bills. They've let go of some serious talent over the years. I also love looking at which classes really shaped the game we're watching in front of us. 2003-2004. 2007-2008. 2011-2014. For example. Big influences and imprints.

QB is just going from memory. And to be fair, it is the spot pretty much everyone does the worst at. It is damn near impossible to predict. If you could prove you pick NFL starting QBs at an 80% rate someone will pay you money to do it, or they should. I sadly don't keep records year to year. I could go back and do a position by position examination and keep a spread sheet, but that would take a while.

After looking at it again, I probably spoke too soon about QBs. You actually pick them very accurately now that I looked again. So I guess I was wrong. One other thing. I don't see you're 2011 grades in this thread. you posted 2012-2018. Would putting links for 2011, 2019 and 2020 in this thread as a well? I know you have them else where but considering this thread's content I think it be nice to have it include those links if you feel up to it. No rush though. I won't be doing another update for 6+ months you know : P

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

QB is just going from memory. And to be fair, it is the spot pretty much everyone does the worst at. It is damn near impossible to predict. If you could prove you pick NFL starting QBs at an 80% rate someone will pay you money to do it, or they should. I sadly don't keep records year to year. I could go back and do a position by position examination and keep a spread sheet, but that would take a while.

After looking at it again, I probably spoke too soon about QBs. You actually pick them very accurately now that I looked again. So I guess I was wrong. One other thing. I don't see you're 2011 grades in this thread. you posted 2012-2018. Would putting links for 2011, 2019 and 2020 in this thread as a well? I know you have them else where but considering this thread's content I think it be nice to have it include those links if you feel up to it. No rush though. I won't be doing another update for 6+ months you know : P

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And no worries I appreciate it

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Bob I have a few questions for you when you get a chance?

1)What did you learn about the draft? In general or little details from looking at all those years? I like looking at who's "the best" from year to year and see how that changes or stays the same.

2)What drafts had the most impact on the league to date? Players?

3)Which teams stood out in any for getting talent year after year?

4)What would you say my strongest and where I could improve the most?

5)2017 3rd round was pretty sweet. Any rounds after 2 stick out from a particular draft? There have been a few but any catch your eye?

 

[aluminum seats]

Great job @BaconGrundleCandy @reamer and the rest...just hope you’re getting paid for it out there somewhere

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Great job @BaconGrundleCandy @reamer and the rest...just hope you’re getting paid for it out there somewhere

I wish. Was just talking about this on twitter and in private. I doubt anyone makes a good living doing something like this. Most have spouses that work with good jobs. Have their fingers in other pies. I know Matt Miller is looking for work and done at the bleachers report soon. The Draft network might not be around soon. Targets CEO or some big shot had a kid that was displaying as a draftnik. Once his father realized there's no profit he pulled the plug. Draft guys, PFF/#'s guys, it's a tough industry. Tbh it's all presentation > substance as crazy as it sounds.

Appreciate it though. It's a fun hobby for me. I enjoy the process and results. Like being a "guy on his couch" and comparing my stuff to others.

 

[DaBruinz]

I love doing this, it's fun but scary at the same way when I look at all the players I end up grading. Sometimes I'll look at my sheet & say , "really, 30 something 2nd rounders"? Or something like that & you just have to trust your system/gut & let it roll.

Or I'll look at guys RG3 (#2 QB), Trent Ricardson etc and just facepalm.

One thing that I think has to be taken into consideration is the situation a player is thrown into. I think that RGIII being thrown into the Washington Situation was, by far, the worst situation he could have gone into (with the exception of the Jetes).. You have an owner there who has more money than sense and who puts abnormally high amounts of pressure on things.. The guy thinks you can BUY a SB despite the fact that he has yet to even get beyond the 1st round of the play-offs.

Richardson, well, everyone makes honest mistakes..

 

[DaBruinz]

I wish. Was just talking about this on twitter and in private. I doubt anyone makes a good living doing something like this. Most have spouses that work with good jobs. Have their fingers in other pies. I know Matt Miller is looking for work and done at the bleachers report soon. The Draft network might not be around soon. Targets CEO or some big shot had a kid that was displaying as a draftnik. Once his father realized there's no profit he pulled the plug. Draft guys, PFF/#'s guys, it's a tough industry. Tbh it's all presentation > substance as crazy as it sounds.

Appreciate it though. It's a fun hobby for me. I enjoy the process and results. Like being a "guy on his couch" and comparing my stuff to others.

I don't believe that Joel Buschbaum made a lot of money. However, he had a HUGE friend in Bill Belichick. I believe that Belichick even spoke at Buschbaum's funeral.

The Patriots have an opening. You should put your together your body of work and submit it to them. Considering that so much of what you have done is done without the benefit of player interviews it is pretty awesome.

It would suck to lose you, but if you were to be hired, I know that this team would be better for it..

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I wish. Was just talking about this on twitter and in private. I doubt anyone makes a good living doing something like this. Most have spouses that work with good jobs. Have their fingers in other pies. I know Matt Miller is looking for work and done at the bleachers report soon. The Draft network might not be around soon. Targets CEO or some big shot had a kid that was displaying as a draftnik. Once his father realized there's no profit he pulled the plug. Draft guys, PFF/#'s guys, it's a tough industry. Tbh it's all presentation > substance as crazy as it sounds.

Appreciate it though. It's a fun hobby for me. I enjoy the process and results. Like being a "guy on his couch" and comparing my stuff to others.

I think what's tough is there are so many different systems and schemes. So a player who is bad for one scheme might be good for another. It's tough. A bit different from evaluating baseball players or even basketball players.

.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

One thing that I think has to be taken into consideration is the situation a player is thrown into. I think that RGIII being thrown into the Washington Situation was, by far, the worst situation he could have gone into (with the exception of the Jetes).. You have an owner there who has more money than sense and who puts abnormally high amounts of pressure on things.. The guy thinks you can BUY a SB despite the fact that he has yet to even get beyond the 1st round of the play-offs.

Richardson, well, everyone makes honest mistakes..

Yep, draft evaluation/grading a prospect is really only half the battle. "Landing spot" , coaching, having a plan is just as important as being right on the prospects. Those things are so important.

I don't believe that Joel Buschbaum made a lot of money. However, he had a HUGE friend in Bill Belichick. I believe that Belichick even spoke at Buschbaum's funeral.

The Patriots have an opening. You should put your together your body of work and submit it to them. Considering that so much of what you have done is done without the benefit of player interviews it is pretty awesome.

It would suck to lose you, but if you were to be hired, I know that this team would be better for it..

Appreciate the kind words. That's really nice. I'd do it for free in a second. Let me pick Bill and Ernie's brain once and a while and I'm good. Truth be told I could probably help out with the draft stuff but that's about it. Most of those people are really bright, able to do multiple things well. I'm not that smart and limited to only draft stuff lol. Those people are well versed in other things like coaching points, player development and other stuff.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I think what's tough is there are so many different systems and schemes. So a player who is bad for one scheme might be good for another. It's tough. A bit different from evaluating baseball players or even basketball players.

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I'm of the mindset that most of these prospects can play. It's all about land spot, coaching, draft capital (where you get draft) and who's in front of you on the depth chart. So much goes into it.

Like it all starts with grading a prospects value. You have to start and hit there but that's just the beginning. You're now bringing a prospect into your house. Away from his and what he knows. You have to find a role, help him adjust to NFL play, his role, develop him. It's a process. It's nice to just pick talented kids but most cases you have to work to make it happen.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I'm of the mindset that most of these prospects can play. It's all about land spot, coaching, draft capital (where you get draft) and who's in front of you on the depth chart. So much goes into it.

Like it all starts with grading a prospects value. You have to start and hit there but that's just the beginning. You're now bringing a prospect into your house. Away from his and what he knows. You have to find a role, help him adjust to NFL play, his role, develop him. It's a process. It's nice to just pick talented kids but most cases you have to work to make it happen.

I don't disagree. I just mean a good player might be a fit for 1 gap for one team but not 2 gap on a different team. Or a guy better fits a team's zone scheme compared to another team's press+man coverage game. So each team has different rankings for the exact same list of players. Makes it hard to have a standard service. Which makes it a bit different from national baseball or basketball scouting service equivalents.

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[BaconGrundleCandy]

I don't disagree. I just mean a good player might be a fit for 1 gap for one team but not 2 gap on a different team. Or a guy better fits a team's zone scheme compared to another team's press+man coverage game. So each team has different rankings for the exact same list of players. Makes it hard to have a standard service. Which makes it a bit different from national baseball or basketball scouting service equivalents.

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Yea that's what I mean by landing spot. Teams that slant probably aren't looking for or a great fit for a fatty like Big Vince. It's all about getting the right fit bc they're are so many players on the field. One guy out of place, off beat can ruin a whole defense.

It's a long process and difficult one to master for sure. I'd love to ask and talk with a few big shots about draft strategy.

 

[DaBruinz]

Appreciate the kind words. That's really nice. I'd do it for free in a second. Let me pick Bill and Ernie's brain once and a while and I'm good. Truth be told I could probably help out with the draft stuff but that's about it. Most of those people are really bright, able to do multiple things well. I'm not that smart and limited to only draft stuff lol. Those people are well versed in other things like coaching points, player development and other stuff.

I don't think you are giving yourself enough credit, tbh. You've been able to use your draft knowledge to critique players who are playing currently.
Define being "smart". Is it book knowledge? Is it practical application knowledge? Is it "street smarts"? Is is having "Un"-commen sense?

You have similarities to Joel Buschbaum. I say that because he was a savant. He could review the all-22 tapes and see what players were doing right, wrong, and how players abilities might be over-valued or under-valued depending on the team they were on. You've shown a very similar ability with your PTP Draft Boards and your player evals. You've also been able to project pretty decently how players would do regardless of the teams they went to. THAT is what is amazing to me..

A person like yourself who can evaluate college players the way you do is worth his weight in gold. You said you were 185 lbs, right? By my calculations (2700 Troy Ounces * $1849) that's just shy of $5M.. LOL. In all seriousness. There is no harm at all in putting together what you have accomplished and sending it to Belichick. The worst that could happen is that you get a letter back from Berj saying that they're not interested in what you offer. But, at least you'll be able to say that you tried. And it won't nag at you in the back of your mind.

 

[BobDigital]

Bob I have a few questions for you when you get a chance?

1)What did you learn about the draft? In general or little details from looking at all those years? I like looking at who's "the best" from year to year and see how that changes or stays the same.

2)What drafts had the most impact on the league to date? Players?

3)Which teams stood out in any for getting talent year after year?

4)What would you say my strongest and where I could improve the most?

5)2017 3rd round was pretty sweet. Any rounds after 2 stick out from a particular draft? There have been a few but any catch your eye?

Sorry for the late reply. I haven't checked this thread in a while and just noticed it was bumped.

1) One of the main things I learned about the draft in general is people massively overvalue certain picks. Particular the #1 overall pick. Unless you have a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck you should almost always trade down from that spot if possible. People often fall in love with the top rated QB, who is just as likely to hit as just about any other first round QB. Another that the value in the draft often falls within picks 8-15 in the first round. That is in large part because people too often fall in love with super athletes or people who fit the mold perfectly, as opposed to who is actually the best player. Aaron Donald is a great example. Didn't he fall because he was too small? Let other teams worry about who fits the prototype the best, worry about that guy who has a single 'flaw' that absolutely blows you away. That is the player you want.

2) It's all about QBs. For players of course you have 1983 for QBs which was a massive draft and 2014 in more recent history. But I prefer drafts that signalled that there was a shift in league thinking. I would love to pick that one draft where the GMs finally 'got it' and realized the league had chanced, but even in 2017 a guy like Fournette was still going top 5, which is insane in today's game. It was too gradual. As for players who made a difference I think Shannon Sharpe was a big one. He was picked in round 7 cause he didn't fit the mold. I don't think TEs were ever valued the same way after that he signalled to GMs that we are no longer player 70s ground and pound. Some had gotten that massage, but he made it clear to everyone that we need to think differently about how we look at offense, which changes how you look at defense.

3) Cleveland proved that talent without purpose and coaching means nothing. Besides QB I thought they had a lot of potential hits on their hands that they allowed to get ruined and it goes to show that talent only matters when you have it pulling in a unified and coordinated direction. As far as teams that hit on talent and are able to use it, it's hard to look at a better example than the Ravens. They have been amazing at the draft and have the know how to tape into that talent year after year.

4) I don't think you have a strongest spot or one that is particularly weak. It changes year to year. If I went over the numbers i'm sure one would kind of stick out but I don't think it is glaring. Off the top of my head I would guess your best is WR and your worst might well be Edge, but I think that's in part because you seem to especially love edge players and so rank more of them than any other spot year after year.

5) Nope. I don't have a good enough memory to keep that kind of information in my mind. But when it comes to rounds I will say this. The 4th round is massively undervalued. Technically you could trade the 16th overall pick for 12 or so 4th round picks. That to me is insane. So really any 4th round class is a good example of where to find value in my mind. The 5th round seems to fall off a cliff routinely.