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BaconGrudleCandy the draft God?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Jun 23, 2018.

  1. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I asked Bacon a while back if he would be willing to show me all his draft grades for past years. I asked because while I put a lot of stock into what his grades are I've never done an analysis for anyone on this website. Seeing how much effort he has put in recently I thought it would only be fair if I gave his work some special attention.

    FYI Bacon doesn't give out grades by round so for convenience I will be speaking as if he does.

    Also so you know what I mean by hits or bust. I consider a 1st or 2nd round player to be a hit of he is a decent starter or better and a 3rd round pick to be a hit if he is at the very least a great role player. With that said here are my findings.

    (updated with 2011 numbers)

    2011 - Bacon had 18 first round grades, 27 second round grades and 27 third round grades. This sheet had less names on it then the others and only ranked players with top 3 round grades.

    Some of his best first round predictions were Jabaal Sheard (37) and Kyle Rudolph (43). He went 17 for 18 with his first round predictions this year. The player he missed on is Gabe Carimi and I don't penalize him for Aldon Smith getting hurt as he was clearly having a star career before that happened.

    Of his second round picks he had his worst year ever going 16 for 27. What hurt the most was the QBs predicting going only 1/5 in the second round. He also went 1/3 on his 2nd round WRs. I did give him a hit on Aaron Williams who I thought was doing well before his injury in his 4th year as a DB. Some of his best hits were Jurrell Casey (77) and DeMarco Murry (71).


    2012 – Bacon had 14 first round grades, 32 second round grades and 38 third round grades along with others.

    Some of his most notable predictions: Shea McClellin (19th) was given a 4th round grade when everyone gave him a 1st and Josh Norman given a 2nd round grade (pick 143). Out of his 14 first round graded players 13 are still in the NFL and producing at probowl or near probowl level in almost all cases. The player Bacon missed on was Brandon Taylor who got injured early in his career. The next worst player he gave a first round grade to is Mark Barron.

    Of his 2nd round grades 24 of 32 were hits. A normal 2nd round pick has a 50% bust rate and many of his 2nd round picks were picked outside the 2nd round in the actual draft. Some of his 2nd round graded bust include RG3, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon. They are guys everyone missed on.

    When I did a quick overview of his 3rd round picks I estimated around half are hits.

    Overall I have to say this was a supremely impressive year and being the year with the most information to look at makes it look even more impressive.

    This year was BEYOND an A+ in draft prediction.


    2013 - This was a bit of an unusual year as far as the grades. Bacon only gave 5 guys first round grades, 38 second round grades and 54 third round grades. This was one of the weakest drafts in modern NFL history.

    The first rounders were Ziggy Ensah(5th), Xavier Rhodes(25th), DeAndre Hopkins(27th), Jonathan Cooper(7th) and Larry Warford(65th). 4 hits and 1 miss in Cooper. Cooper did start 13 of 13 games last year for Dallas but he hasn't been a full time starter much of his career and his play hasn't lived up to starter grade IMO. The hits are among the best at their position. Warford was named PFF's rookie of the year and was the best call by Bacon that year.

    He gave 38 players a second round grades and 25 of those were hits.

    His misses include guys like Dee Miller (9th), Mingo (6th), Jordan (3rd). The majority of his misses came from RB (4) and DE (4) and QB (2) and it was a horrible year for all 3 of these player classes.. Eddie Lacy I counted as a bust even though he made the probowl.

    As for his 3rd round grades they were pretty decent with picks that landed throughout the draft and numerous ones outside the top 3 rounds. Overall I would say about half hit.


    2014 – Of the 17 picks Bacon gave first round grades to the closest thing to a bust is Sammy Watkins. Also he was Bacon's 3rd ranked WR that year so his missed on him less than most. The next closest bust is Ebron who while not an amazing TE is a decent pass catching TE and starter.

    While a number of those picks were highly rated prospects to not have a single guy you picked out of the NFL out or buried on the depth chart is pretty amazing. His pick of Ryan Shazier is now out of the NFL but you can't really fault that on Bacon and he was on pace for a good career before his injury. Even considering 2014 was one of the best drafts in recent memory I doubt anyone else called 17 shots and didn't miss. A number of first rounders picked ahead of where some of Bacon's first rounders were picked are already looking for a team or riding the bench.

    It's worth noting his picks include a few guys who fell to the 2nd round like Timmy Jernigan, DeMarcus Lawrence. Both of whom just got paid pretty big contracts.

    While that is pretty impressive even considering how much the top of this class hit the question now becomes how did his 2nd round guys do? He named 37 guys with a second round grade and 26 hit.

    Some notable picks here were Telvin Smith (144), Devonte Freeman (103), Trai Turner (92). This year the big area Bacon missed were LB in which 4 of his 11 second round ranked misses came from.

    Looking at his 3rd round picks this is the first time I think he hit under 50%.

    The data after this point will be less complete and reliable but I think 2015 is worth a look.


    2015 – Bacon gave 13 players a first round grade. All 13 of those players are still starting and almost all of them are doing very well. The only guy you can maybe call a bust is Kevin Johnson (16). While he did start for Houston last year I think he was put there cause of injury and draft grade and is soon to be a future back up. They did pick up his 5th year option early for what it's worth.

    Some of the best first round grades given were to Ali Marpet (61) Landon Collins (33) and Ronald Darby (50).

    So you can argue either Bacon is 13/13 or 12/13 depending on if you agree on Johnson being a bust. I put him in the bust category personally.

    He also gave out 38 second round grades for this draft and 22 of those hit (his worst showing so far). Some of his best picks are Kwon Alexander (124), David Johnson (86), Daniell Hunter (88) and Shaq Mason (131). Where he missed this year was WR missing all 3 including Kevin White and missing 4/7 LBs


    Overall figures(updated):

    Out of 67 times he gave players a top grade he hit 63 times. That is a 94% prediction success rate.

    When it comes to players he gave a second round grade to he named a total 172 players and 113 of them are still in the NFL either as stars or starter level players. That is just a hair under 2/3rds success rate.

    For his 3rd round ranked players though I did not do a write up on them I would say on average players he graded at that level hit about half the time.


    Conclusion:

    I don't think I've ever heard of anyone being able to predict NFL draft picks at this level. If you can find a more reliable source than Bacon I would love to know who it is. When I look at these numbers I am left with no other conclusion to make except he is one of the most accurate draft prognosticators there is.

    I don't mean to say he is one of the best fans at predicting who will be great players and who won't be. I mean he is one of the best PEOPLE IN THE WORLD at predicting it. His numbers stack up favorably against the top paid draft analysis and even against the general managers of many football teams.

    Simply put; BaconGrundleCandy is a draft god.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 26, 2018

  2. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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  3. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Really appreciate it @BobDigital

    I love doing this, it's fun but scary at the same way when I look at all the players I end up grading. Sometimes I'll look at my sheet & say , "really, 30 something 2nd rounders"? Or something like that & you just have to trust your system/gut & let it roll.

    Or I'll look at guys RG3 (#2 QB), Trent Ricardson etc and just facepalm.

    I'm constantly thinking about 2017-2018. Should've had this guys higher or lower. Or should've listened to the rumors about medicals (although you never know how bad something is unless you've seen it I guess) for Joe Mathis.

    Rivers is always on my mind. Lol it wears on ya. Should I change this. Do that? In the end my process really is exactly what I told you when we pm'd. I should say I breakdown each from a positional standpoint first but I grade on the points I told you about.

    So again I really appreciate any feedback good or bad. Same from @reamer I value his opinion more than most, anywhere that is & have asked his help tons of times.
     
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  4. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Thanks for the kudos, but I've gotten things wrong plenty of times. I get too attached to certain players. You do a better job of staying even keel when evaluating and grading traits. Something for me to learn. :)
     
  5. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Honestly I think you'd do great if you started tracking ur results. I wouldn't say it if I didn't believe it tbh. You, mwpf & many others are a lot smarter than me & again I'm not saying that looking many complements or anything. You're an engineer, I believe? I think Mike is an architect? lol I never even went to college (thank god for the union)

    I know book smarts doesn't always translate to street smart or other aspects but you guys clearly have the talent. Then again thats where your I.Q. comes into play again, both you guys put family/life first.

    Again I think you & many other would do great after a while.


    P.S.
    I'm def gona go over my grades again at some point to see where I could do better after this.

    Currently neck deep in Pats info/trends ….
     
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  6. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Reamer you are pretty damn good yourself too. I don't have your year by year picks which I did for Bacon which made this relatively easy to do but if you did I would do a write up for you as well. Don't worry, I always find time to steal your good ideas and pass them off as mine. ;)
     
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  7. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    If you're looking to improve here is my personal opinion as someone who recently looked over your data.

    Something I noticed you consistently miss on is the running QBs. I never liked them as they get hurt too often or once they can't win on talent alone their arm gets exposed. Occasionally you get a Russell Wilson but much more likely you get a Manziel/RG3/Bridgwater. Those were all high bust for you.

    Personally I think you will regret putting Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson (yes he looks really good but so did RG3 early) in your first tier. Overall they are just too risky and don't last long at this level typically.

    You also seemed to miss more on LB than other positions but considering the sample size it might mean nothing as logically speaking with such a small sample size something like that would happen.

    Besides that I don't think you have any particular position that you miss on. I would say your best position is probably CB . You have a great eye for them and i don't think you missed much with guys you gave a top 2 round grade to.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 24, 2018
  8. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Really appreciate this. Feedback helps a lot.

    Wish I had Wilson higher. Really hope the big 3 from 2017 all do well. Watson, MT & PM. Ill be very happy if that happens, esp grading wise. Jackson too for sure.
     
  9. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Been kicking myself in the ass the last few weeks. Feel like I can/should have been better & I absolutely have to improve. Wanted to get some perspective & I love talking about the whole process.

    That said holy god ....... Just took a quick look at what some thought about 2014 draft & honestly couldn't believe what I read.

    People loved the Easley pick. Wanted & would have ended up w CJ Fiedoworwitz, K/M Martin, Brandon Coleman & the majority of the board hated the Jimmy pick. I didn't want him, he's a bust etc etc

    More than a few of those posters like to pretend only those w NFL jobs can do this & this only reconfirms my thought that some amateurs, some, are absolutely good enough. Not talking coaching or anything like that but its more than obvious this isn't some "1%", "this person works for the NFL so they better than amateurs" etc type deal.

    I was honestly shocked at what I read.
     
  10. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Josh Gordon's locker is next to Brady's. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    One of those was me. I was pounding the table for Easley.
     
  11. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    U get a pass for having ur gator glasses on ;).

    I'll admit his peak/upside was very intriguing for sure.
     
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  12. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Josh Gordon's locker is next to Brady's. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Even without considering his college team, I still would have liked the move. In college, Easley had one of the quickest first steps that I've ever seen from a DT.
     
  13. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    He was a monster at shooting out low & w serious quicks.

    I def didn't hate the pick. More where we got him.
     
  14. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Josh Gordon's locker is next to Brady's. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yup. Anyway, this thread is about you. You’re the man. How you analyze that much and still work and have a social life is something you should share with everyone. I definitely read your takes with interest. I’m just a big college football fan. I spend all day in front of the TV on Saturdays, but I don’t go into the depth that you and some others do. It’s definitely appreciated.
     
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  15. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Appreciate it but I wish we could have a title change lol.

    Maybe we can use this thread to shoot the sh it about what we look like for? What someone values when looking rankings, grades etc?

    Not gone like I think about my misses a lot more than hits. Carlos Henderson & Obi are given me fits rn.
     
  16. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Josh Gordon's locker is next to Brady's. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We can roast you instead.
     
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  17. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I think we can do both but give it to me big guy:D
     
  18. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I 100% agree. I know the NFL guys get paid for it, and they should. But we see year in and year out people who are paid to do scouting screw up the job. I am a guy that is married to results and comparing predictions to evidence.

    A GM should be graded solely on how many of their players hit and which players they did pick and didn't pick. Particularly on the higher picks. Once you, and everyone else pass on a game 5 times and pick him up on your 6th pass I find it hard to give a GM a lot of credit for hitting on that guy. Particularly cause not every player you picked in front of them was clearly a better option. You do get SOME credit but I see that more akin to winning the lottery. Almost every GM eventually hits on a late round pick.

    I refuse to let people tell me a GM who misses year after year after year somehow knows more than another guy who made predictions than hit year after year after year.

    Anyone doing that is simply ignoring reality. For instance. I don't know if Bacon is one of the top 32 guys in the world at predicting the NFL draft; but i the 32 GMs doing it right now are not the best guys because year after year a number of them have sucky track records that are inferior the to records other people would have had if they got to make those picks.

    2018 grades
    2018 NFL DRAFT GRADES.xlsx

    2017 grades
    2017 NFL DRAFT GRADES (1).xlsx

    2016 grades
    2016 NFL DRAFT GRADES (1).xlsx

    2015 grades
    2015 NFL DRAFT GRADES.xlsx

    2014
    2014 NFL DRAFT GRADES.xlsx

    2013 grades
    2013 NFL DRAFT GRADES.xlsx

    2012 grades
    2012 NFL DRAFT GRADES.xlsx

    I would wager you can easily find 10 NFL teams going all the way back from 2012 on that would be better today if they drafted the players based on these boards and ranking instead of their own ones.

    I'm not going to pick a team just to check because i am sure it would take too much time. But people who stick to Bacon's boards would find it hard to walk away without at least 1 probowler a year on average.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 26, 2018
  19. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    1st bolded part
    Ok so one thing that bothers me once & a while but I try to stay even keel about is rankings.
    Example: I had Garcia #1 & Ramczyk #2. Give myself credit & tbh it's really me picking, it's my scale. But I'll tell myself rankings don't matter as much as long as I get that player in the right spot.
    Probably rambling but basically I try not to worry about who I got wrong (even though it pisses me off lol) but rather that I got Ramczyk in the right spot. Obviously Garcia dealt w a lot of otf stuff but I think u know what I mean.
    Another example could Carr, Jimmy, Teddy. Really wish I had Jimmy #1 but get some solace knowing I had him in the right spot.

    Honestly this is something I wanted to ask. How much do rankings 1-10 etc matter as opposed to just having other on the right spot.
    Lol I'm making that somewhat clear I'm not a wordsmith or the brightest bulb on the shelf.

    2nd bolded we agree to a T! It really bothers me & where I think people over think things. It's not easy by any means but it's not curing cancer. Like everything else owners will want the smartest guys in terms of other areas. Guys that are brilliant in several areas as opposed to those who literally just focus on which players to draft & bring in. I get that in a way but again I feel their ignoring the obvious when it comes to picking players.
    Honestly that's why I love looking at others boards, grades etc. Which is pretty much the norm for amateur scouts or we you wanna call them/me. I swear there's a bunch of young guys on Twitter who will be in these rooms one day. Ethan Young is a great example. I believe he's working w/for the Rams. Next Gen Stats I think? Anyway kid is so smart & I hope others get noticed bc I believe that type of analysis, voice in the room would only help.
     
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  20. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Well when you're working for the Patriots can you get me a job? ;)

    To your first point. I don't really worry about ranking guys 1-10. I have 2 kinds of rankings. Tier (with slight preferences within the tier) and positional value rankings.

    For instance, a lot of people including you agreed that Nelson was one of, if not the, best player in the draft. I didn't really look at him closely. I gave him a quick look like all draftniks. My conclusion was this. If people want to call him the best player I won't argue.

    Here is my point on that. While he may be the best player he isn't close to the most valuable.

    I would have taken no less than 20 prospects over him. Even if you could guarantee me he would be just as good as Zack Martin I would take him no higher than 15th.

    Guards just don't impact the game the way other positions can. It's just that simple. Guards don't win you games. They lose you games. I want players that can win me games if i am picking that high. Isaiah Oliver was taken at what? 55? He will go on to much a much more impactful career than Nelson even if he becomes the best guard in the NFL for a time.

    I know a lot of people with disagree on with me on that. But it is just how i see the game. This is a passing league and the guard is more about the running game

    However, back to more about what you said. I agree that having guys in the right general tier is the important part. It is hard enough to pick who will be good, bad or average in the NFL. To expect someone to be able to correctly order that is asking too much. There is no way to possibly know such detail. I like the grades cause they show who you prefer within a tier but beyond that I don't think anyone should hold it against any other draftnik that player A hit more than player B when both were correctly predicted to hit.

    As for your 2nd point. Some people either don't have an eye for it or over thinking. I think people get WAY too hung up on scheme fit. In the end it is just 11 guys playing football. Don't over think it.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 27, 2018

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