BobDigital
Pro Bowl Player
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I asked Bacon a while back if he would be willing to show me all his draft grades for past years. I asked because while I put a lot of stock into what his grades are I've never done an analysis for anyone on this website. Seeing how much effort he has put in recently I thought it would only be fair if I gave his work some special attention.
FYI Bacon doesn't give out grades by round so for convenience I will be speaking as if he does.
Also so you know what I mean by hits or bust. I consider a 1st or 2nd round player to be a hit of he is a decent starter or better and a 3rd round pick to be a hit if he is at the very least a great role player. With that said here are my findings.
2011 - Bacon had 18 first round grades, 27 second round grades and 27 third round grades. This sheet had less names on it then the others and only ranked players with top 3 round grades.
Some of his best first round predictions were Jabaal Sheard (37) and Kyle Rudolph (43). He went 17 for 18 with his first round predictions this year. The player he missed on is Gabe Carimi and I don't penalize him for Aldon Smith getting hurt as he was clearly having a star career before that happened.
On his second round picks he had his worst year ever going 'only' 16 for 27. What hurt the most were his QBs predictions; going only 1/5 in the second round. He also went 1/3 on his 2nd round WRs. I gave him a hit on Aaron Williams who I thought was doing well before his injury in his 4th year as a DB. Some of his best hits were Jurrell Casey (77) and DeMarco Murry (71).
2012 – Bacon had 14 first round grades, 32 second round grades and 38 third round grades along with others.
Some of his most notable predictions: Shea McClellin (19th) was given a 4th round grade when everyone gave him a 1st and Josh Norman given a 2nd round grade (pick 143). Out of his 14 first round graded players 13 are still in the NFL and producing at probowl or near probowl level in almost all cases. The player Bacon missed on was Brandon Taylor who got injured early in his career. The next worst player he gave a first round grade to is Mark Barron.
Of his 2nd round grades 24 of 32 were hits. A normal 2nd round pick has a 50% bust rate and many of his 2nd round picks were picked outside the 2nd round in the actual draft. Some of his 2nd round graded bust include RG3, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon. They are guys everyone missed on.
When I did a quick overview of his 3rd round picks I estimated around half are hits.
Overall I have to say this was a supremely impressive year and being the year with the most information to look at makes it look even more impressive.
This year was BEYOND an A+ in draft prediction.
2013 - This was a bit of an unusual year as far as the grades. Bacon only gave 5 guys first round grades, 38 second round grades and 54 third round grades. This was one of the weakest drafts in modern NFL history.
The first rounders were Ziggy Ensah(5th), Xavier Rhodes(25th), DeAndre Hopkins(27th), Jonathan Cooper(7th) and Larry Warford(65th). 4 hits and 1 miss in Cooper. Cooper did start 13 of 13 games last year for Dallas but he hasn't been a full time starter much of his career and his play hasn't lived up to starter grade IMO. The hits are among the best at their position. Warford was named PFF's rookie of the year and was the best call by Bacon that year.
He gave 38 players a second round grades and 25 of those were hits.
His misses include guys like Dee Miller (9th), Mingo (6th), Jordan (3rd). The majority of his misses came from RB (4) and DE (4) and QB (2) and it was a horrible year for all 3 of these player classes.. Eddie Lacy I counted as a bust even though he made the probowl.
As for his 3rd round grades they were pretty decent with picks that landed throughout the draft and numerous ones outside the top 3 rounds. Overall I would say about half hit.
2014 – Of the 17 picks Bacon gave first round grades to the closest thing to a bust is Sammy Watkins. Also he was Bacon's 3rd ranked WR that year so his missed on him less than most. The next closest bust is Ebron who while not an amazing TE is a decent pass catching TE and starter.
While a number of those picks were highly rated prospects to not have a single guy you picked out of the NFL or buried on the depth chart is pretty amazing. His pick of Ryan Shazier is now out of the NFL but you can't really fault that on Bacon, and he was on pace for a good career before his injury. Even considering 2014 was one of the best drafts in recent memory; I doubt anyone else called 17 shots and didn't miss a single one. A number of first rounders picked ahead of where some of Bacon's first rounders were picked are already looking for a team or riding the bench.
It's worth noting his picks include a few guys who fell to the 2nd round like Timmy Jernigan, DeMarcus Lawrence. Both of whom just got paid pretty big contracts.
While that is pretty impressive, even considering how much the top of this class hit, the question now becomes how did his 2nd round guys do? He named 37 guys with a second round grade and 26 hit.
Some notable picks here were Telvin Smith (144), Devonte Freeman (103), Trai Turner (92). This year the big area Bacon missed was at LB were 4 of his 11 second round misses came from.
Looking at his 3rd round picks this is the first time I think he hit under 50%.
The data after this point will be less complete and reliable but I think 2015 is worth a look.
2015 – Bacon gave 13 players a first round grade. All 13 of those players are still starting and almost all of them are doing very well. The only guy you can maybe call a bust is Kevin Johnson (16). While he did start for Houston last year I think he was put there cause of injury and draft grade and is soon to be a future back up. They did pick up his 5th year option early for what it's worth.
Some of the best first round grades given were to Ali Marpet (61) Landon Collins (33) and Ronald Darby (50).
So you can argue either Bacon is 13/13 or 12/13 depending on if you agree on Johnson being a bust. I put him in the bust category personally.
He also gave out 38 second round grades for this draft and 22 of those hit (his worst showing so far). Some of his best picks are Kwon Alexander (124), David Johnson (86), Daniell Hunter (88) and Shaq Mason (131). Where he missed this year was WR missing all 3 including Kevin White and missing 4/7 LBs
2016 - Another year, another set of data. Time to prove once and for all that this run has all been a fluke and... oh wait. It isn't.
Bacon gave 10 players first round grades and 33 players second round grades for this year. Of the 10 first round players the closest to a bust is probably Taylor Decker. He's 'only' a middle of the pack starting LT. So that makes a 10/10 for these picks. No big surprises for players he picked here as his lowest was Myles Jack (36) who everyone seem to be on board with. Still a very impressive performance.
His 2nd round came out looking like this. QB 1/2 DE 2/3, WR 3/4, DT 5/5, RB 1/1, CB 4/6, OT 1/1, S 2/2, G 2/2 LB 3/7. That works out to 24/33. To be honest his CBs and LBs were kind of weird this year. A lot of borderline guys I didn't know how to feel about. I kind of split the difference with them. While this was a great round of predicting, the fact is he got good players that weren't clearly hits. So there are some blurred lines. His best pick was easily Dak Prescott (135). His next best was Yannick Ngakoue (69). Not as many late round steals outside the 2nd round as other years, but the percentage of hits were some of his best. The 3rd round looked to be about half and I'm sure he wishes he put a higher grade on some.
2017 - This was an odd year for most and particularly for Bacon. For a guy who usually gives so few top grades he gave his most ever here with 27. Looking back he may have wished he were more picky with some. He went 15 for 26 with a rare 1 TBD. (Reuben Foster... Couldn't pick with his pretty good play overall but current injuries). That puts him at 58%. By far his lowest. Personally I see this more as water seeking its level. Getting even 75% of top picks right is insane. 95% which was his rate before this year was simply too good to last. No big surprise picks that hit or missed here.
For the second round he went 35 for 52. Putting him at 67% Right around his average in the past. Impressive as 52 is a lot of grades in that class, particularly after 27 first round picks. This is also the most grades he ever had in this tier BTW. All this considered this makes this hit percent even more impressive than most other years.
Again his 3rd round grades look like roughtly 50% though some of the biggest names in the draft slipped through.
Overall figures(updated for 2017):
Out of 103 times he gave players a top grade he hit 88 times. That is a 85% prediction success rate.
When it comes to players he gave a second round grade to he named a total 257 players and 172 of them are still in the NFL either as stars or starting level players. That is a 2/3rds success rate.
I didn't take a close look at his 3rd round players as it would have been too many names to go through but about half of those hit give or take.
Conclusion:
I don't think I've ever heard of anyone being able to predict NFL draft picks at this level. If you can find a more reliable source than Bacon I would love to know who it is. When I look at these numbers I am left with no other conclusion to make except he is one of the most accurate draft prognosticators there is.
I don't mean to say he is one of the best fans at predicting who will be great players and who won't be. I mean he is one of the best PEOPLE IN THE WORLD at predicting it. His numbers stack up favorably against the top paid draft analysis and even against the general managers of many football teams.
Simply put; BaconGrundleCandy is STILL a draft god.
FYI Bacon doesn't give out grades by round so for convenience I will be speaking as if he does.
Also so you know what I mean by hits or bust. I consider a 1st or 2nd round player to be a hit of he is a decent starter or better and a 3rd round pick to be a hit if he is at the very least a great role player. With that said here are my findings.
2011 - Bacon had 18 first round grades, 27 second round grades and 27 third round grades. This sheet had less names on it then the others and only ranked players with top 3 round grades.
Some of his best first round predictions were Jabaal Sheard (37) and Kyle Rudolph (43). He went 17 for 18 with his first round predictions this year. The player he missed on is Gabe Carimi and I don't penalize him for Aldon Smith getting hurt as he was clearly having a star career before that happened.
On his second round picks he had his worst year ever going 'only' 16 for 27. What hurt the most were his QBs predictions; going only 1/5 in the second round. He also went 1/3 on his 2nd round WRs. I gave him a hit on Aaron Williams who I thought was doing well before his injury in his 4th year as a DB. Some of his best hits were Jurrell Casey (77) and DeMarco Murry (71).
2012 – Bacon had 14 first round grades, 32 second round grades and 38 third round grades along with others.
Some of his most notable predictions: Shea McClellin (19th) was given a 4th round grade when everyone gave him a 1st and Josh Norman given a 2nd round grade (pick 143). Out of his 14 first round graded players 13 are still in the NFL and producing at probowl or near probowl level in almost all cases. The player Bacon missed on was Brandon Taylor who got injured early in his career. The next worst player he gave a first round grade to is Mark Barron.
Of his 2nd round grades 24 of 32 were hits. A normal 2nd round pick has a 50% bust rate and many of his 2nd round picks were picked outside the 2nd round in the actual draft. Some of his 2nd round graded bust include RG3, Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon. They are guys everyone missed on.
When I did a quick overview of his 3rd round picks I estimated around half are hits.
Overall I have to say this was a supremely impressive year and being the year with the most information to look at makes it look even more impressive.
This year was BEYOND an A+ in draft prediction.
2013 - This was a bit of an unusual year as far as the grades. Bacon only gave 5 guys first round grades, 38 second round grades and 54 third round grades. This was one of the weakest drafts in modern NFL history.
The first rounders were Ziggy Ensah(5th), Xavier Rhodes(25th), DeAndre Hopkins(27th), Jonathan Cooper(7th) and Larry Warford(65th). 4 hits and 1 miss in Cooper. Cooper did start 13 of 13 games last year for Dallas but he hasn't been a full time starter much of his career and his play hasn't lived up to starter grade IMO. The hits are among the best at their position. Warford was named PFF's rookie of the year and was the best call by Bacon that year.
He gave 38 players a second round grades and 25 of those were hits.
His misses include guys like Dee Miller (9th), Mingo (6th), Jordan (3rd). The majority of his misses came from RB (4) and DE (4) and QB (2) and it was a horrible year for all 3 of these player classes.. Eddie Lacy I counted as a bust even though he made the probowl.
As for his 3rd round grades they were pretty decent with picks that landed throughout the draft and numerous ones outside the top 3 rounds. Overall I would say about half hit.
2014 – Of the 17 picks Bacon gave first round grades to the closest thing to a bust is Sammy Watkins. Also he was Bacon's 3rd ranked WR that year so his missed on him less than most. The next closest bust is Ebron who while not an amazing TE is a decent pass catching TE and starter.
While a number of those picks were highly rated prospects to not have a single guy you picked out of the NFL or buried on the depth chart is pretty amazing. His pick of Ryan Shazier is now out of the NFL but you can't really fault that on Bacon, and he was on pace for a good career before his injury. Even considering 2014 was one of the best drafts in recent memory; I doubt anyone else called 17 shots and didn't miss a single one. A number of first rounders picked ahead of where some of Bacon's first rounders were picked are already looking for a team or riding the bench.
It's worth noting his picks include a few guys who fell to the 2nd round like Timmy Jernigan, DeMarcus Lawrence. Both of whom just got paid pretty big contracts.
While that is pretty impressive, even considering how much the top of this class hit, the question now becomes how did his 2nd round guys do? He named 37 guys with a second round grade and 26 hit.
Some notable picks here were Telvin Smith (144), Devonte Freeman (103), Trai Turner (92). This year the big area Bacon missed was at LB were 4 of his 11 second round misses came from.
Looking at his 3rd round picks this is the first time I think he hit under 50%.
The data after this point will be less complete and reliable but I think 2015 is worth a look.
2015 – Bacon gave 13 players a first round grade. All 13 of those players are still starting and almost all of them are doing very well. The only guy you can maybe call a bust is Kevin Johnson (16). While he did start for Houston last year I think he was put there cause of injury and draft grade and is soon to be a future back up. They did pick up his 5th year option early for what it's worth.
Some of the best first round grades given were to Ali Marpet (61) Landon Collins (33) and Ronald Darby (50).
So you can argue either Bacon is 13/13 or 12/13 depending on if you agree on Johnson being a bust. I put him in the bust category personally.
He also gave out 38 second round grades for this draft and 22 of those hit (his worst showing so far). Some of his best picks are Kwon Alexander (124), David Johnson (86), Daniell Hunter (88) and Shaq Mason (131). Where he missed this year was WR missing all 3 including Kevin White and missing 4/7 LBs
2016 - Another year, another set of data. Time to prove once and for all that this run has all been a fluke and... oh wait. It isn't.
Bacon gave 10 players first round grades and 33 players second round grades for this year. Of the 10 first round players the closest to a bust is probably Taylor Decker. He's 'only' a middle of the pack starting LT. So that makes a 10/10 for these picks. No big surprises for players he picked here as his lowest was Myles Jack (36) who everyone seem to be on board with. Still a very impressive performance.
His 2nd round came out looking like this. QB 1/2 DE 2/3, WR 3/4, DT 5/5, RB 1/1, CB 4/6, OT 1/1, S 2/2, G 2/2 LB 3/7. That works out to 24/33. To be honest his CBs and LBs were kind of weird this year. A lot of borderline guys I didn't know how to feel about. I kind of split the difference with them. While this was a great round of predicting, the fact is he got good players that weren't clearly hits. So there are some blurred lines. His best pick was easily Dak Prescott (135). His next best was Yannick Ngakoue (69). Not as many late round steals outside the 2nd round as other years, but the percentage of hits were some of his best. The 3rd round looked to be about half and I'm sure he wishes he put a higher grade on some.
2017 - This was an odd year for most and particularly for Bacon. For a guy who usually gives so few top grades he gave his most ever here with 27. Looking back he may have wished he were more picky with some. He went 15 for 26 with a rare 1 TBD. (Reuben Foster... Couldn't pick with his pretty good play overall but current injuries). That puts him at 58%. By far his lowest. Personally I see this more as water seeking its level. Getting even 75% of top picks right is insane. 95% which was his rate before this year was simply too good to last. No big surprise picks that hit or missed here.
For the second round he went 35 for 52. Putting him at 67% Right around his average in the past. Impressive as 52 is a lot of grades in that class, particularly after 27 first round picks. This is also the most grades he ever had in this tier BTW. All this considered this makes this hit percent even more impressive than most other years.
Again his 3rd round grades look like roughtly 50% though some of the biggest names in the draft slipped through.
Overall figures(updated for 2017):
Out of 103 times he gave players a top grade he hit 88 times. That is a 85% prediction success rate.
When it comes to players he gave a second round grade to he named a total 257 players and 172 of them are still in the NFL either as stars or starting level players. That is a 2/3rds success rate.
I didn't take a close look at his 3rd round players as it would have been too many names to go through but about half of those hit give or take.
Conclusion:
I don't think I've ever heard of anyone being able to predict NFL draft picks at this level. If you can find a more reliable source than Bacon I would love to know who it is. When I look at these numbers I am left with no other conclusion to make except he is one of the most accurate draft prognosticators there is.
I don't mean to say he is one of the best fans at predicting who will be great players and who won't be. I mean he is one of the best PEOPLE IN THE WORLD at predicting it. His numbers stack up favorably against the top paid draft analysis and even against the general managers of many football teams.
Simply put; BaconGrundleCandy is STILL a draft god.
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