Investing in the OL

[mayoclinic]

The Pats have used the #4 and 28 picks on offensive tackles Will Campbell and Caleb Lomu in the 2025 and 2026 drafts. They also drafted Cole Strange at 29 overall in 2022. That's 3 out of 7 1st round picks this decade. Manx has threatened to become a Jets fan if they draft OT in the first round in 2027 (I'd go with the Dolphins, they just drafted Jacob Rodriguez, Will Kacmarek and Kyle Louis).

To be clear, I do NOT want to draft another top-100 OT in 2027, unless (1) he is projected to move inside, or (2) Will Campbell ends up moving inside. And I do not want to spend our 1st round pick on OL, unless the value is ridiculous.

But I DO want us to continue investing in the OL. It is vitally important. 2026 will answer a lot of questions, but at this time I'd make continuing the OL buildout the main offensive priority in what should otherwise be a defense focused draft.

As @JoeSixPat has noted in another thread:

1st and 2nd round OL generally have the best success rate for any position in the draft (with the exception of this year when the quality dropped off in the 2nd round) - and plenty of guys in later rounds that become long term starters. (Compare that to WRs or other positions in the first round for success rate)

Seems to me given the increasingly outrageous free agent prices for Tackles and now Centers being around $27 million a year plus, you could make a strong case that OL should ALWAYS be a priority at the top of the draft and throughout.

Just imagine, you could develop your own young, good, cheap OL - especially the higher priced positions - with guys on their initial rookie contracts for 4 or 5 years. If you draft well you'll have 5 guys that are on contracts costing $5-$10 million a year

OR you can go shopping in free agency for guys who are costing $20-$30 million a year.

If you're paying $25 mil per year for your OL compared to $25-$30 million per guy per year, that can free up $100 million to spend on other positions in free agency where the draft is more of a bust risk.

So how much is too much to invest in the OL? Let's look at what some other teams have done this decade in the 1st round:

- Baltimore: 2022 OC Tyler Linderbaum (25), 2026 IOL Olaivavega Ioane (14)
- Carolina: 2022 OT Ikem Ekwonu (6), 2026 OT Monroe Freeling (19)
- Cleveland: 2020 OT Jedrick Wills (10), 2026 OL Spencer Fano (9)
- Dallas: 2022 OT Tyler Smith (24), 2024 OT Tyler Guyton (29), 2025 IOL Tyler Booker (12)
- Detroit: 2021 OT Penei Sewell (7), 2026 OT Blake Miller (17)
- Houston: 2022 IOL Kenyon Green (15), 2026 IOL Keylan Rutledge (26)
- LA Chargers: 2021 OT Rashawn Slater (13), 2022 IOL Zion Young (17), 2024 OT Joe Alt (5)
- Miami: 2020 OT Austin Jackson (18), 2026 OL Kadyn Proctor (12)
- Minnesota: 2021 OT Christian Darrisaw (23), 2025 OL Donovan Jackson (24)
- New Orleans: 2020 OC Cesar Ruiz (24), 2022 OL Trevor Penning (19), 2024 OL Taliese Fuega (14), 2025 OT Kelvin Banks (9)
- NY Giants: 2020 OT Andrew Thomas (4), 2022 OT Evan Neal (7), 2026 OL Francis Mauigoa (10)
- NY Jets: 2020 OT Mekhi Beckton (11), 2021 OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (14), 2024 OT Ola Fashanu (11), 2025 OT Armand Membou (7)
- Pittsburgh: 2023 OT Broderick Jones (14), 2024 OT Troy Fautanu (20), 2026 OT Max Iheanachor (21)
- Seattle: 2022 OT Charles Cross (9), 2025 IOL Grey Zabel (17)
- Tampa Bay: 2020 OT Tristan Wirfs (13), 2024 OC Graham Barton (26)
- Tennessee: 2020 OT Isaiah Wilson (29), 2023 OL Peter Skoronski (11), 2024 OT JC Latham (7)

So including the Patriots, 17/32 teams have taken 2 or more 1st round OLs this decade. Many teams have taken back to back 1st tound OLs (the Falcons also took 2 in 2019), and used their 1st round pick on OL 3 out of 4 years. 25% (8/32) took 1st round OLs 3 or more years so far this decade.

The league values OLs, they have a relatively high 1st (and 2nd) round success rate, and they seldom reach FA. It's good investment policy.

The Pats are finally catching up in investing in the OL. Unless they get lucky again in FA (Ikem Ekwonu and Broderick Jones may reach FA this year due to injuries), expect them to continue to invest in the OL.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Not strictly OL, but if the Pats are going to maximize FA dollars for Gonzo and Maye, they will look to replace higher priced veterans. Younger and cheaper. That includes Moses, Onwenu, Barmore, and Davis. That might mean a CB or DT in R1/R2. Maybe RG in R3.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm hoping we address some needs in FA. The draft is the foundation, but there are not enough picks to cover key areas.

At this point, I'd roughly like to see:

1. BPA. Preference to CB, IDL, EDGE and TE.
2. OL.
3. LB or S.
4. S or LB.

My early OL board right now:

1. Jordan Seaton
2. Trevor Goosby
3. Jacarrius Peak
4. Kade Pieper
5. PJ Williams
6. Austin Siereveld
7. Carter Smith
8. Greg Johnson
9. Brandon Baker
10. Cayden Green
11. Niki Prongos
12. Lance Heard

The 3 wild cards who could become available:

1. Ikem Ekwonu
2. Broderick Jones
3. Jonah Savaiinaea

 

[mgteich]

We need to pay Onwenu or use a high draft pick for an RG.

 

[mayoclinic]

We'll see how Onwenu does those year, but I see the Pats investing in a more athletic, mobile RG.

 

[DaBruinz]

Not strictly OL, but if the Pats are going to maximize FA dollars for Gonzo and Maye, they will look to replace higher priced veterans. Younger and cheaper. That includes Moses, Onwenu, Barmore, and Davis. That might mean a CB or DT in R1/R2. Maybe RG in R3.

At worst, you trade Barmore during the 2027 draft and get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him. Otherwise, you sign him to an extension to lower his cap hit. As for Davis, the hope is that Prunty can replace him by the end of the year. For the 2027 draft, LB and Safety have to be the top priorities. Safety can be lowered and CB raised if Pettus takes a step forward. I think it's more likely that Landry (14.5M savings) and Moses (9M) are gone than Davis and Barmore. Just because of how the roster is built currently.

To maximize FA Dollars, the Pats need to carry over as much as possible from this year to next year. The Pats are projected to only have about $37M in free cap space for 2027 as it stands with no carry over. I mentioned this in the ILB thread when JayNM was talking about the Pats not spending fully.

Maye will be easier to sign to an extension after the 2027 season because the Pats will have over 120M in cap space with 50+ people signed going into Free agency and the 2028 draft.

You have to address LB at some point. Elliss is a UFA and shouldn't be resigned unless he improves both in coverage and against the run. Spillane will be 31 before the season is out and will only have a year remaining on his contract.

Guys that the Pats will have to replace in Free Agency or Resign after the 2026 season:
Onwenu ($19M), Hollins ($4.2M), Henry($9M), Baringer, Elliss ($6.75M), Durden (RFA), Woods (RFA), Boutte (24yr old) , Douglas (27), Byard ($7M), Pettus (RFA)

The numbers are the current AAV for those players or their RFA status or their age for next year.

We know that Boutte wants a new contract. Something in the 12M-20M range are the estimates. I hate the idea, but it's looking like he'll be traded because the money needs to be prioritized elsewhere.

Douglas is a JAG and I expect him to be traded or released if one of the UDFAs shows any sign they can return punts behind Marcus Jones and play other special teams.

 

[DaBruinz]

I'm hoping we address some needs in FA. The draft is the foundation, but there are not enough picks to cover key areas.

At this point, I'd roughly like to see:

1. BPA. Preference to CB, IDL, EDGE and TE.
2. OL.
3. LB or S.
4. S or LB.

My early OL board right now:

1. Jordan Seaton
2. Trevor Goosby
3. Jacarrius Peak
4. Kade Pieper
5. PJ Williams
6. Austin Siereveld
7. Carter Smith
8. Greg Johnson
9. Brandon Baker
10. Cayden Green
11. Niki Prongos
12. Lance Heard

The 3 wild cards who could become available:

1. Ikem Ekwonu
2. Broderick Jones
3. Jonah Savaiinaea

Mayo -Help me understand your thinking here. Right now, LB is the thinnest spot for the Pats. Elliss, Britt, and Muma are a UFA after 2026 and Spillane will be 31. The Pats have Woodson at Safety. Byard is a UFA and Pettus is an RFA. The Pats have Gonzalez, Davis, Jones, and Prunty at CB. They have Raridon and Hill at TE. They signed Jones to a 3yr deal. They have Jacas and Ponder.

How can you prioritize IDL over LB when the Pats have one of the deepest IDL they've had since they rolled out Warren, Wilfork, Seymour and Green. The only "Free Agent" the Pats have coming up on the IDL is Durden as an RFA. I'm not saying that the depth can't be upgraded. But LB has to be a priority over IDL unless there isn't a fit. At some point, the Pats have to invest in LB. Otherwise, we're going to see them trying to fit square pegs into round holes at LB. Much like we saw when they signed Monty Beisel and Chad Brown after Bruschi's stroke,


The Pats just invested in TE with Raridon. Another TE will be drafted, but it's unlikely it will be in the top 3 rounds.
With the addition of Jacas and the fact that they have Ponder and Jones, I think that Edge will be a lower priority in 2027.

This is why I mentioned in the "2027 Wishlist" Thread that ILB and Safety would be the top priorities with IOL and DE being the next tier down, then DT, CB, TE and WR being the 3rd tier with RB, QB, and OT being the lowest priorities. I did mention in the ILB thread that I could see Safety being lowered in priority and CB raised. That will depend on what happens with Pettus (RFA), Sanders, and Manuma.