Ok, this is not meant to be an endorsement of these picks. This is just a quick peek into the changes I made to the picker.
I can't stress this enough this system is based on the last 4 games. Obviously teams have only played 2 games.
Here we go with the changes:
I added the Over/Under to the picker, I also added the weekly win/losses for the O/U as well.
A quick refresher on the picker:
1. It is a system based on the last 4 games
2. It uses a portion of each teams stats, head to head for each team in each game.
3. It obviously cannot account for weather, injuries etc...
4. It accounts for home field advantage of +3 points. It is factored in with the home team getting a +1.5 from their predicted score and -1.5 from the road team.
5. The spread is based on the opening line from
NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting (thespread.com)
6. Unfortunately I discovered today that the site does not list the O/U so I am using the BetMGM App line from Monday's as the "opening" O/U
7. Obviously I could line shop to give it an edge, but that would be too much work and ******** padding of the stats, IMO. So to keep a consistant accurate record of its picks I will stick with the opening lines.
8. I will keep the official record starting in Week 5. I typically get antsy and post the first unofficial picks in Week 4, so I will post it next week as well. I am only posting this one a week early so that I can get some feedback on the formatting changes and maybe adding other options/features that I have not thought of. I have spent a significant amount of time updating it. Mostly automating as much of the excel workbook as possible so that I don't have to enter everything in manually. An example counting the wins/losses by the differences between the actual spread and the predicted spread.
9. As usual I will post the picks hopefully by Wednesday each week.
10. I will at the same time, starting in week 6, post the results from the previous week.
11. As mentioned in #8, and I am sure some of you remember, (if not you can peruse back through this thread to find past examples) I keep a running record of the Picks Straight Up, ATS and then I break down its record by the difference of the predicted spread and the actual spread. Example Prediction is NE winning by 10, the spread is NE -3, that would be a spread difference of 7 and that game would be counted in the +7 W-L-P in the season record list. I break it down by less than 3, +3, +4, +5,+6,+7,+8 or greater. I also post this each week starting in week 6.
12. Formatting changes have been made to hopefully make it a bit more visually appealing. Both the Picker and the Season record. Open to suggestions, likes, dislikes etc...I reserve the right to kindly tell you thanks, but **** off if you get ****ty about it and I don't agree with your critique.
I think that covers it all feel free to ask any questions. I went back and pulled the stats from 2019 (the last year I kept up with it), that was actually a down year for the picker in seasons before that it was usually between 56% and 58%.
Season Results:
ATS: 107-93-4 (
54%) +4.7 units
SU: 118-86 (
58%)
Playoff Results
ATS: 5-4-1 (
56%) +0.6 Units
SU: 5-5
SB Week Result:
ATS: 1-0
SU: 1-0
Season + Playoff Results
ATS: 113-97-5 (
54%)
SU: 124-91 (
58%)
Here is what the picker and the season record chart used to look like:
Pats fans post
And the new picker look:
Here is what the season record will look like, obviously it doesn't have any real data in yet.
