OT-ish: The gambling thread

[FreeTedWilliams]

College O/U's for season win totals were released today. Alabama and Clemson each at 11'. So if you take the under for either team, all you need is one loss for that team.

I love the idea of taking both unders. IMHO there is a good chance you win both and very, very little chance you lose both. They've only BOTH gone undefeated in the same (regular) season one time. Given that each have new QB's, I just cannot see that happening again.

Both Clemson and Alabama have 12 games scheduled, and that is not counting their conference championship games nor the BCS games. I would double check if these games add to the over/under. I'm pretty sure the conf championship games are considered "regular season games".

So even with Clemson's loss last night, I can pretty much guarantee that they will go 12-1 by the end of the ACC championship game. They literally have no one left on their schedule that scares anyone.

Alabama does not have Georgia on its schedule, so they will be 12-0 going into the SEC Championship game (most likely against Georgia).

 

[Patsfan1958]

Some Mac Jones odds.:

Jones’s over/under for interceptions is set at 13.5 on DraftKings.

The over/under for Jones’s passing yards is set at 3,800.5 on DraftKings.

The over/under for the amount of touchdowns Jones will throw is 23.5 on DraftKings.

What oddsmakers are projecting for Mac Jones in his rookie season

 

[XLIX]

Both Clemson and Alabama have 12 games scheduled, and that is not counting their conference championship games nor the BCS games. I would double check if these games add to the over/under. I'm pretty sure the conf championship games are considered "regular season games".

The over/under only includes the regular season (no conference championships, bowl games or playoffs), so I’ve already won Clemson.

Alabama does not have Georgia on its schedule, so they will be 12-0 going into the SEC Championship game (most likely against Georgia).

Alabama is the best in the nation, but that doesn’t mean they can’t slip up against a good team (which Miami is not). They have a lot of talented opponents coming up. Even in years where they win the championship, you still see the occasional regular season loss. Out of their 6 championships with Saban, 4 had a regular season losses in there.

 

[fightingirish595]

The over/under only includes the regular season (no conference championships, bowl games or playoffs), so I’ve already won Clemson.

Alabama is the best in the nation, but that doesn’t mean they can’t slip up against a good team (which Miami is not). They have a lot of talented opponents coming up. Even in years where they win the championship, you still see the occasional regular season loss. Out of their 6 championships with Saban, 4 had a regular season losses in there.

You haven’t won yet but the worst you can get was a push. Unless you got 11.5? Pretty sure it closed at that

the win totals I have are
Oklahoma over 11
Lsu over 8.5
Byu under 6.5
BC state over 6.5

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The over/under only includes the regular season (no conference championships, bowl games or playoffs), so I’ve already won Clemson.

I’m not trying to be a skeptic, but you should really double check this O/U bet. Either Vegas left itself open to get hammered with a huge error, or that’s not the actual bet.

My reasoning is that Clemson was -3 vs. Georgia, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%.

There’s almost no way they could have an implied probability of 60% for one game and 50% to go 11-0.

Edit: Irish makes a good point about a push. Maybe that explains it.

 

[XLIX]

You haven’t won yet but the worst you can get was a push. Unless you got 11.5? Pretty sure it closed at that

Yes, it was at 11.5, As far as Clemson is concerned, the only thing I have to worry about is that they actually play all 12 games (which these days is not a 100% given).

I’m not trying to be a skeptic, but you should really double check this O/U bet. Either Vegas left itself open to get hammered with a huge error, or that’s not the actual bet.

College over/unders do not include CCG's. I don't see how Vegas left themselves open to getting hammered. Even when you're the best team, going undefeated is still no guarantee. If anything, Vegas would get completely hammered with an Clemson O/U of 11.5 against 13 games if they were in the CCG. People would bet their life savings on the over.

My reasoning is that Clemson was -3 vs. Georgia, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%.

There’s almost no way they could have an implied probability of 60% for one game and 50% to go 11-0.

I had to pay extra juice on the under (for both teams). Each bet was roughly -1300. That's why right now my little 2-bet strategy I described in my post has a worst case scenario where Alabama goes undefeated and I lose $300 on this little strategy*. If Alabama loses just 1 game, I win $2,000.

*Assuming all games are played.

Here is a description of how these totals work, and the opening lines. For the 2 bets I placed, the 11.5 number stayed the same, but the juice on the under shifted a little.

2021 College Football Win Totals Odds - Find Win Total Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I need at least one loser each week for a loser pool I'm in. Obviously can't use the same team twice. Would appreciate any help its a decent score if you win.

 

[fightingirish595]

I need at least one loser each week for a loser pool I'm in. Obviously can't use the same team twice. Would appreciate any help its a decent score if you win.

Id say cowboys or bears

 

[fightingirish595]

I’m not trying to be a skeptic, but you should really double check this O/U bet. Either Vegas left itself open to get hammered with a huge error, or that’s not the actual bet.

My reasoning is that Clemson was -3 vs. Georgia, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%.

There’s almost no way they could have an implied probability of 60% for one game and 50% to go 11-0.

Edit: Irish makes a good point about a push. Maybe that explains it.

Nah it’s regular season only. I bet these every year. Clemson and bama were 11.5. First time I’ve ever seen that

 

[fightingirish595]

Yes, it was at 11.5, As far as Clemson is concerned, the only thing I have to worry about is that they actually play all 12 games (which these days is not a 100% given).

College over/unders do not include CCG's. I don't see how Vegas left themselves open to getting hammered. Even when you're the best team, going undefeated is still no guarantee. If anything, Vegas would get completely hammered with an Clemson O/U of 11.5 against 13 games if they were in the CCG. People would bet their life savings on the over.

I had to pay extra juice on the under (for both teams). Each bet was roughly -1300. That's why right now my little 2-bet strategy I described in my post has a worst case scenario where Alabama goes undefeated and I lose $300 on this little strategy*. If Alabama loses just 1 game, I win $2,000.

*Assuming all games are played.

Here is a description of how these totals work, and the opening lines. For the 2 bets I placed, the 11.5 number stayed the same, but the juice on the under shifted a little.

2021 College Football Win Totals Odds - Find Win Total Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)

I’m assuming you meant -130 and not -1300…

even though it’s stipulated that 12 games are needed for action, certain books my honor the under 11.5. But they are probably legally required to void any overs

 

[Brandon_Cox]

. I've already put down a sizable bet on the Pats over 9 wins (-125).

Put a lot more money down on the Pats over 9, first at -145 then more at -155. I just can't see them only winning 8 games. This will make or break my year

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Id say cowboys or bears

Lions, Bengals, Saints. All home but I need a few outside the box ideas. Have a few entries (15×+). Dig deep Irish.

How you doing?

Ready to kill em?

 

[XLIX]

I’m assuming you meant -130 and not -1300…

Yes, the line was 11.5 (-130u/+110o). The wager was $1,300 to win $1,000. Apologies for the confusion.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yes, it was at 11.5, As far as Clemson is concerned, the only thing I have to worry about is that they actually play all 12 games (which these days is not a 100% given).

College over/unders do not include CCG's. I don't see how Vegas left themselves open to getting hammered. Even when you're the best team, going undefeated is still no guarantee. If anything, Vegas would get completely hammered with an Clemson O/U of 11.5 against 13 games if they were in the CCG. People would bet their life savings on the over.

I had to pay extra juice on the under (for both teams). Each bet was roughly -1300. That's why right now my little 2-bet strategy I described in my post has a worst case scenario where Alabama goes undefeated and I lose $300 on this little strategy*. If Alabama loses just 1 game, I win $2,000.

*Assuming all games are played.

Here is a description of how these totals work, and the opening lines. For the 2 bets I placed, the 11.5 number stayed the same, but the juice on the under shifted a little.

2021 College Football Win Totals Odds - Find Win Total Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)

Yes - I misread. Thanks for clarifying and good luck with your wager. I don’t know how o/u works. If Clemson were to lose next week, would they pay out? Or do you need to wait?

 

[XLIX]

Yes - I misread. Thanks for clarifying and good luck with your wager. I don’t know how o/u works. If Clemson were to lose next week, would they pay out? Or do you need to wait?

You need to wait until after the end of the regular season, otherwise I could already go collect on Clemson. I have under 11.5 and there are only 11 games left for them. However, as mentioned above, all bets are void if they don't play a full 12 game regular season as scheduled. Hence the wait.

 

[fightingirish595]

Lions, Bengals, Saints. All home but I need a few outside the box ideas. Have a few entries (15×+). Dig deep Irish.

How you doing?

Ready to kill em?

is that a reference to Brian Kelly’s statement about execution?

personally think the Bengals and Saints will win those games.

 

[mgcolby]

Ok after a year or so hiatus...I'm back. So nice that sports gambling is legal in VA now. So much better than the offshore books.

Want to announce I am committed to bringing back my tool this year and keep up with it weekly. Not sure how many folks found it useful. But it's fun nonetheless. A quick refresher it's based on the last four games. So I will introduce it in week 4. Based on the first half of the 3rd pre-season game counting as a whole game and then the first 3 games. The official season record will not begin until week 5.

Got a parlay tonight.

Boys +9 under 52.5

Another 1st quarter bet Boys +3

 

[mgcolby]

is that a reference to Brian Kelly’s statement about execution?

personally think the Bengals and Saints will win those games.

Too lazy to look up the TB coach back in the 70's that Kelly was paying homage to but that is an NFL classic.

"Coach how do you feel about your team's execution today?"

"I'm all for it!"

 

[fightingirish595]

Too lazy to look up the TB coach back in the 70's that Kelly was paying homage to but that is an NFL classic.

"Coach how do you feel about your team's execution today?"

"I'm all for it!"

Mckay. But it’s not confirmed whether he actually said it or not

 

[mgcolby]

Mckay. But it’s not confirmed whether he actually said it or not

Based on what? I have watched the video. Tje whole McKay with south park makes it even funnier. Are you suggesting it was a video edit?