A bit more on the Nick Chubb play:
Monday’s “First Call” features some Bengals fans wagging their fingers at Steelers linebacker Bud Dupree after their team lost at Heinz Field. The New England Patriots spring another trick play on the Baltimore Ravens. The Cleveland Browns ruined a bet. And the Jacksonville Jaguars gave the...
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Chubb took a pitch on a third-and-3 with 1:07 to play and bolted up the left sideline heading toward the end zone. The Texans had no timeouts, so Chubb just ran out of bounds instead of scoring and giving Houston the ball back.
That allowed Cleveland to kneel out the clock on the next two plays.
Now maybe he should’ve just given himself up inbounds. And scoring a touchdown plus an extra point would’ve put the game essentially out of reach with a 10-point margin and less than a minute left.
But Chubb did what he was told.
For some gamblers, though, that wasn’t a good thing. The Browns were favored by 4.5. So those who had big money on the game were clearly pulling their hair out as a result because the three-point margin allowed the Texans to cover.
Nick Chubb's 59-yard run all but sealed the Browns' 10-7 win over the Texans on Sunday, but his decision to run out of bounds at the 1-yard line and forgo the touchdown was costly for the betting public as Cleveland failed to cover the 4.5-point spread.
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At the Texans' 1-yard line, with no defender close, Chubb took a sharp left turn and went out of bounds. The Browns kneeled down on the final two plays and sealed the victory for their sixth win of the season.
"I got a call from the coaches, from [quarterback] Baker [Mayfield] to not score, get a first down to end the game. So that's what I did," Chubb said after the game. "Luckily the run was a little longer because I didn't think about it until the last 10 yards."
The Browns were supported heavily by the betting public. The line opened at Cleveland -2.5, but was bet up to -3.5 by Friday and closed at -4.5 at most sportsbooks.
At William Hill sportsbooks around the nation, 89% of the money bet on the point spread was on Cleveland, according to data reported by the bookmaker an hour before kickoff.
Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook book director for BetMGM in Nevada, said the Texans covering the spread produced a mid-six-figure swing in favor of the house and a collective moan from the crowd of bettors at the Mirage in Las Vegas.
"We were yelling and then, unbelievable, he runs out of bounds," Stoneback told ESPN on Sunday afternoon. "He was full speed, going down the sideline, and it was almost like an afterthought, 'Oops, let me get out.' That was our biggest game of the morning."
DraftKings also reported taking significantly more money on the Browns than the Texans. The action on Cleveland resulted in what DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello characterized as a "pretty sizable" swing in favor of the house.
ESPN's win probability metric showed Cleveland had a greater than 99.9% chance of winning whether Chubb scored to put the Browns up nine with an extra point pending or if he decided to step out of bounds and let Mayfield kneel to run off the final seconds.
Cleveland bettors, including one at BetMGM sportsbook in Las Vegas who wagered $100,000 on the Browns -4 over the Houston Texans, were dealt a bad beat.
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Betting on the Cleveland Browns long has been a frustrating and often futile endeavor. Since 2010, they have the NFL’s worst record against the spread at 67-96-6.
But bettors who backed Cleveland on Sunday — including one at BetMGM sportsbook in Las Vegas who wagered $100,000 on the Browns -4 over the Texans — were dealt an especially painful fate.
His decision turned their ecstasy into agony and caused a mid six-figure swing in favor of BetMGM. The number was higher when taking all books into account, as sharp bettors and the betting public were on Cleveland.
“You heard rumbling out in the room and people booing,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It was probably one of the top two or three biggest decisions of the day. We needed the Texans. It was a huge swing industrywide.”
It should be noted that not everything went the way of the house on Sunday:
On the flip side, the books lost when DeAndre Hopkins pulled down Kyler Murray’s 43-yard Hail Mary heave in the end zone with one second left to lift Arizona to a 32-30 comeback win over Buffalo. The Cardinals, who opened at -1½ and closed at -3, knelt on the 2-point try to avoid the risk of a blocked kick return.
BetMGM essentially got middled on the game, as early Arizona bettors and late Bills bettors cashed tickets.
“I guess it kind of all evened out because we lost on the Cardinals game,” MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said.
Bettors recouped some money in Week 10 after back-to-back banner weeks for the books. Bettors won in the afternoon games, as favorites went 5-1 ATS, with Arizona the only point-spread loser.
Books lost big on the Steelers (-7, 36-10 over the Bengals), Raiders (-3½, 37-12 over the Broncos), Saints (-9½, 27-13 over the 49ers) and Buccaneers (-6, 46-23 over the Panthers).
“It was a pretty chalky weekend,” Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “That usually is not good if you’re on this side of the counter.”
After NFL underdogs went 19-9 ATS with 12 outright wins in Weeks 8 and 9, only one underdog won during the day Sunday, as the Giants (+4½) defeated the Eagles 27-17.
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