MORSE: 2024 Patriots Season Preview Part 1 – Offense
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To look forward to the 2024 season you first have to look back at the 2023 season and how we got to this point. Warren Sharpe, an NBC Football Analyst, had this to say about 2023 “Looking back, perhaps Bill Belichick simply wanted to get out of coaching so he could get into dating 24-year-olds, but this was absolutely lousy coaching.”
Bill Belichick the GM left the cupboard bare. He had three different Offensive coordinators in three years. The offensive line had 9 different combinations of starters over the course of the season. To describe the O-line as Swiss Cheese is an insult to Swiss Cheese. Mac Jones was shell shocked by the constant pressure. He was feeling pressure when there was none. They ruined a potentially quality young QB, and he was toast by the end of the season. He needed a new start, which they mercifully gave him by shipping him off to Jacksonville.
Robert Kraft did the unthinkable, he fired the all-time greatest Head Coach in the NFL. That set the stage for the process of hiring a new Head Coach and General Manager. Turned out that Jerod Mayo already had a contract in place to become the Head Coach and the search for a new GM was farce with many top candidates refusing to interview. The team did not name a General Manager but called the position the Executive Vice President of Player Personnel.
This was followed with creating a new coaching staff. You can argue they didn’t get any of the top candidates to come here. They ended up with Alex Van Pelt as the Offensive Coordinator, a former Offensive Coordinator at Cleveland that never called plays. Now to be fair he was a long time NFL Quarterback (11 years) after a prolific collage career. Since 2005. He has coached quarterbacks and as Offensive Coordinator.
This year started with the promise of having a top 3 draft pick in a year with multiple quality QBs coming out. I was in the minority that wanted a top Left Tackle to anchor the Offensive line for years down the road. The Patriots had offers for their number 3 pick and that was from the NY Giants at #6. They could have had two first round picks and another top 100 pick but turned that down to draft Drake Maye.
During Free Agency they had the most room under the cap to spend on Free Agents. However, the NFL added another $30M to the salary cap of each team, making every team able to compete for the top free agents. The Patriots room under the cap became useless in attracting Free Agents because players didn’t want to come to New England. In order to entice a Top Free Agent to come here they would have to pay the “Suck Tax”, meaning they would have to overbid the top offer by a considerable amount because the team sucks. Foxborough is not an attractive place to play because of the weather, no night life, 1st Year Head coach with no previous Head Coaching experience, and the Massachusetts Millionaires Tax (additional 4% tax). The Patriots also scored very badly with the NFL Players Association Team Report Card survey. The areas they were deficient in were Family support (F) and weight room (F). Team travel got a D as did the Team Owner (D+). The Patriots did add a new players lounge which may help with the report card next year.
Eliot Wolf failed to acquire a starting Left Tackle in Free Agency, instead opting to sign Chuks Okorafor, a career Right Tackle to plug in that spot. They also misjudged the draft where there were a plethora of quality Left Tackles available, instead choosing a Wide Receiver (Ja’Lynn Polk) in the 2nd round. Polk will be a good receiver, and he would not have lasted until the 3rd round. However, the priority should have been Tackle. They then chose a Right Tackle they liked very much in Caedan Wallace, perhaps drafting him earlier, rather than risk losing out on him too. They tried Wallace at Left Tackle, and he simply couldn’t play on the left side. The best draft pick may be G Layden Robinson. I didn’t agree with the pick at the time thinking Mason McCormack was a better fit because he could play Center also. Robinson is changing my mind and is slated to start at RG kicking Michael Onwenu back to Right tackle. This is a good move in my opinion
They did spend their money wisely, re-signing 12 of their own Free Agents. This was a positive move that the previous regime wouldn’t do. If a player wanted a 2nd contract from the Patriots, they would have to go elsewhere to get it. Resigning their own draft picks i s the foundation of the “Packer Way” of Draft and Develop that Eliot Wolf was installing.
I have also liked the construction of the Practice Squad, especially with the young Offensive Linemen they have signed. These are players that appear to work well in Zone Blocking scheme that Alex Van Pelt wants to install here.
In 2023, the offense was actually worse under Bill O’Brien than they were in 2022 under the disaster that was Matt Patricia. This isn’t speculation but fact based upon their final standings. This was related to the high number of injuries the team sustained. They were the second most injured team in 2023, per Warren Sharpe’s analysis. They had 9 different starting Offensive Line combinations, never getting any continuity of playing as a cohesive unit. Buffalo in comparison had the same starting line the entire season.
I expect the 2024 Offensive Line to improve game to game. This depends upon keeping this group healthy and together. David Andrews is the key. The veteran Center signed a 1-year extension this off-season. The team Captain is a leader, and he missed time for the 1st time in his career. When he was out the team’s play disintegrated. Cole Strange is on PUP. The starting Left Guard lost nearly the entire season and is not scheduled to return until mid- year this season. Even when healthy, he has not lived up to the expectation of a 1st round pick. The thinking is that he will switch positions and work out as a Center to back up Andrews. Second-year player Jake Andrews, drafted last year to be groomed as David Andrews’s backup, is out for the year on IR. Nick Leverett was signed as Guard depth, but he has been thrust into the backup Center role and he has struggled with that in Preseason. He has been plugged in as a starter for Sidy Sow at the Left Guard position while Sow recovers from an ankle injury. Sow’s play was a lot better than it looked last year, getting the highest grade of any rookie guard in the league from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Okorafor is slated to start at Left Tackle. He will be an adventure there, having never played Left Tackle. He was called for three Illegal Procedure penalties in the last Preseason game for not lining up on the line of scrimmage. I wondered if the line was coached to do that and try and get an advantage edge. The team was called 5 times for the same penalty. The flag happy officiating crew under referee Shawn Hochuli were trying to emphasize a league mandated tightening of that alignment penalty. Teams were told ahead of time they would be looking at it closely. The refs even warned them once, but they just kept on doing it. Let’s see if that is cleaned up in week one. Caeden Wallace, another Right Tackle only player, tried to play Left Tackle and didn’t fare well. He couldn’t even take the Right Tackle job, and the team decided to move Mike Onwenu back there. The biggest bright spot of the Preseason on the line was the play of 4th round pick Layden Robinson. He is a mauler and received excellent grades from PFF. He was ranked 5th out of all rookies Offensive Linemen for his Preseason play. That include all the 1st and 2nd round OT’s.
The Patriots took advantage of their high priority standing and claimed two young linemen on waivers at the cutdown. Zach Thomas was cut by Rams and was competing for the final roster spot there. He played 3 games last year for the Rams. Thomas plays Guard and Tackle and has experience in the Zone Blocking scheme. The other lineman claimed is Demontrey Jacobs, taken from the Denver Broncos. Many Bronco fans were dismayed that Jacobs was exposed to waivers as they thought he had won the swing tackle role. Both of these linemen had 80+ blocking grades by PFF this summer.
The Patriots signed UFL All Star Liam Fornadel to the Practice Squad. They asked Fornadel to play Center when Atonio Mafi failed at Center. He had just two weeks to learn and he was thrust into the Preseason game where he struggled. They liked the way he progressed after playing a full UFL season. I also liked the signing of Bryan Hudson from Louisville and Detroit Lions. I watched the 2nd half of the Lions preseason game, and he looked dominant. He is another that is more adept with the Zone Blocking scheme.
There was never a QB competition. Brissett was signed to be the bridge between whoever the Patriots drafted. He received all the 1st team reps in practice and had the 1st team Offensive Line playing in front of him. Brissett didn’t look good in Preseason and that’s reason for concern. However, throwing the rookie into the fire without having an established Offensive Line in front of him is a way to get him killed and ruin his progress. If Brissett doesn’t play well, then they may have no choice. My concern was that Jerod Mayo when making the announcement stated that Brissett was the starting QB, for the season!
Drake Maye has made incredible strides in his improvement at QB. His footwork and mechanics were a known problem when they drafted him. He also has small hands for a QB and never took a snap under center in college. He missed his senior year in High School because of COVID and played just two seasons at UNC in the ACC conference, not one of the toughest in college football. Maye turned 22 this week. Both seasons at UNC, he never called a play and didn’t see sophisticated defensive blitzes like he will in the pros. I think they missed a big opportunity to play him against the Carolina Panthers in the 1st Preseason game. Carolina had one of the worst defenses in the league last year.
Maye played much better in the last two Preseason games but that was against 2nd and 3rd team players. We got a glimpse of what he could be. Additionally, Maye is supported by arguably the league’s worst receiving corps and a shaky offensive line. That’s bad news for any rookie quarterback but especially one in need of as much development as Maye. In 2023, Maye’s route-adjusted on-target rate was 8.9% below expected, ranked 60th out of 71 qualified Power Five quarterbacks. None of the other first-round quarterbacks posted a number below expected by this metric.
In the opinion of national analysts, they have the worst group of Wide Receivers. I don’t believe they are the worst. They lack a true #1 receiver, but they are better than they were a year ago. Addition by subtraction is the theme. They finally got rid of DeVante “Velcro” Parker. He could not separate from any defender. For four straight seasons he had the worst separation rating of any player in the league. Belichick gave him a new contract to boot. Juju Smith-Schuster took the Patriots to the cleaner with his outrageous contract for a player who knew he was only 60%. That was stealing money. He too couldn’t separate.
Replace them with rookie draft picks Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Polk will be one of the biggest surprises in the league and will become the #1 receiver. Pop Douglas had a good rookie season until he got hurt. Because of his diminutive size he is always going to be susceptible to injury.
Tyquan Thornton had a good summer and will start outside. No one questions his speed, but can he play like an NFL wide receiver and make those tough catches. KJ Osborn gives them a veteran presence. Kayshon Boutte beat out Jaken Reagor for the final spot. The team has him under contract for 2 more years after this year and that may have been the deciding factor. He needs to hold onto more of those targets. Reagor may excel at Kickoffs, but that wasn’t enough to save his spot. He was resigned to the Practice Squad. Reagor has a reputation for dropping passes and that trait may be what sunk him. Don’t forget about Kendrick Bourne coming off of PUP. He immediately becomes the top receiver on the team. There is no timetable for Bourne to come off PUP, but he saw him working very hard to get on the field.
Hunter Henry resigned with the Patriots. He was one of team Captains last season and should take on the same role this year. He missed considerable time in camp, but it was a minor injury that they were just being cautious with. He is back and should thrive in the AVP Offense. Van Pelt often uses multiple TE formations. The Patriots also acquired 29-year-old Austin Hooper in Free Agency. The steady 8-year veteran made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and 20219 for Atlanta with back-to-back 70+ reception seasons. He is not that player anymore but is very reliable. Rookie 7th Round pick Jaheim Bell made the team after a very good final Pre-season game in which he played nearly the whole game. I feel the front office kept players they drafted over players selected by the previous administration. This goes back to the philosophy of draft and develop. There were better Tight Ends available at the cutdown they passed on to keep Bell.
This is a strength of the team even though they kept just three backs. I expect Rhamondre Stevenson to have a big year in the AVP offense. The Patriots want to run the ball and pass off of play action. The big surprise in the cuts was runningback Kevin Harris. Looking back, he is the same type of runningback as Stevenson and Gibson, He lacks the outside speed. Glad he made it through waivers, and I expect he will be elevated from the Practice Squad as needed. Antonio Gibson is known for his catch passing ability, but he is a strong runner inside and has the speed to bounce outside as well. He will see plenty of action when Stevenson needs a blow. He is a big back also, that can be split wide to take advantage of matchups against slower linebackers. James Hasty had a very good camp and his ability as a 3rd down back in the screen games was evident. He is smaller and shiftier, but showed he is good at picking up the blitz. Rookie UDFA Terrell Jennings showed flashes also, earning a spot on the Practice Squad. He led the Patriots in YPC this summer.
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Nice article!
WR room last in league? Based on what… answer: last year. This year is TBD. Why? Because it’s essentially a whole new room with Osborn, Boyd, Baker and year 2 guys Boutte and Pop D. That unit won’t be fully gradeable till year end, and that is If the o-line plays 1/2 way respectable. So no cupboard bare or full. It’s TBD from a WR aspect.
Taking Jalynn Boyd in round 2 vs a tackle is highly debatable. The tackles that were taken end of round 2 were all dubbed a bit of a “project” and maybe not able to start right away (Patrick Paul etc.) And the pats got the same scenario with Caeden wallace a few picks later in round 3. Wallace supposedly looks good physically to take a tackle job, but he’s not ready yet per rookie jump to the NFL. That doesnt mean he won’t start at some pt this year or year 2 and it certainly doesnt mean he was a… Read more »