OT-ish: The gambling thread

[fightingirish595]

Genesis Invitational

Outright winners

Rory Mcilroy risk 3 units (+700)
Dustin Johnson risk 2 units (+1200)
Bubba Watson rusk 1 unit (+2200)
Carlos Ortiz risk .25 units (+20000)
​

First round Leader

Dustin Johnson risk .7 units (+2200)
Patrick Cantlay risk .5 units (+3000)
Carlos Ortiz risk .5 units (+10000)
​

Finishing Position

Dustin Johnson top 20 to win 5 units (-135)
Xander Schauffele 21st or better to win 5 units (-130)
Carlos Ortiz top 20 risking 1 unit (+750)​

 

[fightingirish595]

Genesis Invitational

Outright winners

Rory Mcilroy risk 3 units (+700)
Dustin Johnson risk 2 units (+1200)
Bubba Watson rusk 1 unit (+2200)
Carlos Ortiz risk .25 units (+20000)
​

First round Leader

Dustin Johnson risk .7 units (+2200)
Patrick Cantlay risk .5 units (+3000)
Carlos Ortiz risk .5 units (+10000)
​

Finishing Position

Dustin Johnson top 20 to win 5 units (-135)
Xander Schauffele 21st or better to win 5 units (-130)
Carlos Ortiz top 20 risking 1 unit (+750)​

awful day yesterday. Went into the day with a good chance at making significant profit but it went very badly.

-10.45 units on the week +2.05 on the season

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

awful day yesterday. Went into the day with a good chance at making significant profit but it went very badly.

-10.45 units on the week +2.05 on the season

Honestly have no idea how you can predict golf tournaments. I am a fan of futures betting (like odds to win championships, divisions, MVPs, etc.) but golf seems to me like an insanely unpredictable outcome.

 

[fightingirish595]

Honestly have no idea how you can predict golf tournaments. I am a fan of futures betting (like odds to win championships, divisions, MVPs, etc.) but golf seems to me like an insanely unpredictable outcome.

have to look for reasons to eliminate players because you can make an argument for a lot of guys each week. Although this week I gave Adam Scott a strong look and cut him out because he hadn’t played in 2 months. (I still believe that’s a good angle and this was merely an exception to a rule)

Idk how I do it but I have a proven track record of making money doing it. Although I’m kinda annoyed I’m barely up at this point. Especially after 2 profitable weeks in a row with an outright winner in there.

by the way I was able to get the Lakers at +250 last week, threw a c note on it

 

[supafly]

by the way I was able to get the Lakers at +250 last week, threw a c note on it

I’m still able to get them +300 right now, and it looks like they’ve won 2 or 3 straight games since you’ve made that wager if it was last week. Make sure to shop around if you have the option. In this case, you’d have made an extra $50 bucks if they win.

FanDuel Sportsbook :

MIL +270 (odds on fave)
LAC +300/LAL +300 (tied for next in line)

 

[fightingirish595]

I’m still able to get them +300 right now, and it looks like they’ve won 2 or 3 straight games since you’ve made that wager if it was last week. Make sure to shop around if you have the option. In this case, you’d have made an extra $50 bucks if they win.

FanDuel Sportsbook :

MIL +270 (odds on fave)
LAC +300/LAL +300 (tied for next in line)

yeah I looked in a bunch of different places and 5/2 was the best I could find.

 

[supafly]

@BaconGrundleCandy

I think you’ve brought up the likelihood of certain teams like SEA and SF regressing in 2020, so when I saw this article I thought of your previous comments.

49ers expected to win 10 or fewer games in 2020 by Pro Football Focus — NBC Sports Bay Area

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@BaconGrundleCandy

I think you’ve brought up the likelihood of certain teams like SEA and SF regressing in 2020, so when I saw this article I thought of your previous comments.

49ers expected to win 10 or fewer games in 2020 by Pro Football Focus — NBC Sports Bay Area

Big time. Winning all those coin flip type games is usually a deal breaker the following season. I'm sure Justis will have another article on it. He's very good with win totals. Believe he's been hitting them at/around 70%.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

@BaconGrundleCandy

I think you’ve brought up the likelihood of certain teams like SEA and SF regressing in 2020, so when I saw this article I thought of your previous comments.

49ers expected to win 10 or fewer games in 2020 by Pro Football Focus — NBC Sports Bay Area

Big time. Winning all those coin flip type games is usually a deal breaker the following season. I'm sure Justis will have another article on it. He's very good with win totals. Believe he's been hitting them at/around 70%.

They’re likely to regress, just almost every 13-win team is, but I think saying they’re a 9-or-less win team is pretty extreme. They’re losing a couple of pretty big names but it isn’t like there’s a mass exodus. They finished the season with a point differential of +169, third in the NFL. They lost by a field goal vs Seattle and Baltimore and on the last play against Atlanta. 5-3 in one possession games.

The article gives strong reasoning why the Vegas total of 10.5 is correct. The 49ers are not like the Rams at all, unless you buy into the Super Bowl loser phenomenon, which is not a crazy idea. But as the writer points out, huge differences because Goff got paid (Garoppolo is already paid) and the Rams crammed everyone into the cap in 2018 in an obvious all-in move.

I think 10-11 wins is an accurate prediction.

Seattle with their basically even point differential is very likely to regress. However, Brady and Manning frequently outperformed expected wins...an ultra elite QB can typically figure out how to win more games than the team should win.

 

[fightingirish595]

The best teams win totals are usually set at around 11

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

They’re likely to regress, just almost every 13-win team is, but I think saying they’re a 9-or-less win team is pretty extreme. They’re losing a couple of pretty big names but it isn’t like there’s a mass exodus. They finished the season with a point differential of +169, third in the NFL. They lost by a field goal vs Seattle and Baltimore and on the last play against Atlanta. 5-3 in one possession games.

The article gives strong reasoning why the Vegas total of 10.5 is correct. The 49ers are not like the Rams at all, unless you buy into the Super Bowl loser phenomenon, which is not a crazy idea. But as the writer points out, huge differences because Goff got paid (Garoppolo is already paid) and the Rams crammed everyone into the cap in 2018 in an obvious all-in move.

I think 10-11 wins is an accurate prediction.

Seattle with their basically even point differential is very likely to regress. However, Brady and Manning frequently outperformed expected wins...an ultra elite QB can typically figure out how to win more games than the team should win.

I was just commenting on the close wins trend. Teams that win coin flip games at a high rate usually regress the next year. I think the Colts are the only team to buck the trend.

 

[fightingirish595]

WGC Mexico Championship

Outright Win bets

Dustin Johnson risk 2.5 units (+800)
Justin Thomas risk 2.5 units (+1100)
Patrick Reed risk .5 unit (+4500)
​

Finishing Position

Justin Thomas top 10 risk 5 units (even)
​

First Round Leader

Sergio Garcia Risk .5 unit (+3500)
Paul Casey risk .5 unit (+3000)
Tommy Fleetwood risk .75 units (+2000)
Tyrell Hatton risk .5 units (+5300)​

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I was just commenting on the close wins trend. Teams that win coin flip games at a high rate usually regress the next year. I think the Colts are the only team to buck the trend.

Is 5-3 in one possession games a high rate though? If they’d gone 4-4, they would have finished 12-4.

49ers 48, Saints 46
Seahawks 27, 49ers 24
49ers 28, Cardinals 25
49ers 34, Rams 31
Ravens 20, 49ers 17
49ers 24, Steelers 20
49ers 26, Seahawks 21
Falcons 29, 49ers 22

The games that were decided by more than one possession:

49ers 51, Panthers 13
49ers 37, Packers 8
49ers 31, Browns 3
49ers 41, Bengals 17
49ers 31, Bucs 17
49ers 20, Rams 7
49ers 36, Cardinals 26
49ers 9, Redskins 0

I don’t see anything flukey about their record. On the other hand, Seattle was 10-2 in one possession games. That is an outlier.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Is 5-3 in one possession games a high rate though? If they’d gone 4-4, they would have finished 12-4.

49ers 48, Saints 46
Seahawks 27, 49ers 24
49ers 28, Cardinals 25
49ers 34, Rams 31
Ravens 20, 49ers 17
49ers 24, Steelers 20
49ers 26, Seahawks 21
Falcons 29, 49ers 22

The games that were decided by more than one possession:

49ers 51, Panthers 13
49ers 37, Packers 8
49ers 31, Browns 3
49ers 41, Bengals 17
49ers 31, Bucs 17
49ers 20, Rams 7
49ers 36, Cardinals 26
49ers 9, Redskins 0

I don’t see anything flukey about their record. On the other hand, Seattle was 10-2 in one possession games. That is an outlier.

I was talking about Seattle originally

 

[supafly]

I was talking about Seattle originally

That’s my bad for the confusion. The previous conversation was specifically about SEA and games that could’ve gone either way, or “coin flip games” as you refer to them.

I simply threw up the article re: SF because we had already discussed the loose framework about seeing regression in the following year, and I thought the total on their projected amount of wins was interesting.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I was talking about Seattle originally

That’s my bad for the confusion. The previous conversation was specifically about SEA and games that could’ve gone either way, or “coin flip games” as you refer to them.

I simply threw up the article re: SF because we had already discussed the loose framework about seeing regression in the following year, and I thought the total on their projected amount of wins was interesting.

No argument here. Seattle will almost certainly regress by 3+ games, unless they improve significantly. Wilson had a clear MVP season - if not for a historic season by Jackson - and was a magician.

 

[fightingirish595]

Yeah I’m not totally convinced Seattle will regress all that much. A lot of those games were backdoor 1 score games. Green Bay was a luckier team this year, that’s the team that will regress

 

[fightingirish595]

WGC Mexico Championship

Outright Win bets

Dustin Johnson risk 2.5 units (+800)
Justin Thomas risk 2.5 units (+1100)
Patrick Reed risk .5 unit (+4500)
​

Finishing Position

Justin Thomas top 10 risk 5 units (even)
​

First Round Leader

Sergio Garcia Risk .5 unit (+3500)
Paul Casey risk .5 unit (+3000)
Tommy Fleetwood risk .75 units (+2000)
Tyrell Hatton risk .5 units (+5300)​

Reed pulls off the dub at 45-1 for me. Thomas top 10 also a winner. +20.25 units on the week and +22.3 on the year

 

[fightingirish595]

Reed pulls off the dub at 45-1 for me. Thomas top 10 also a winner. +20.25 units on the week and +22.3 on the year

another week of golf picks

Honda Classic

Outright winners

Gary woodland risk 1 unit (+2000)
Billy Horschel risk 1 unit (+2800)
Wyndham Clark risk .5 unit (+6500)
Daniel Berger risk 1 unit (+3000)
​

1st round leader

Tommy Fleetwood risk 1 unit (+2200)
Rickie Fowler risk 1 unit (+2500)
Brooks Koepka risk 1 unit (+2500)
Lucas glover risk .25 units (+6600)​

 

[fightingirish595]

another week of golf picks

Honda Classic

Outright winners

Gary woodland risk 1 unit (+2000)
Billy Horschel risk 1 unit (+2800)
Wyndham Clark risk .5 unit (+6500)
Daniel Berger risk 1 unit (+3000)
​

1st round leader

Tommy Fleetwood risk 1 unit (+2200)
Rickie Fowler risk 1 unit (+2500)
Brooks Koepka risk 1 unit (+2500)
Lucas glover risk .25 units (+6600)​

Lost 6.75 last week and got too ****ed up last night and too hungover now to type it so here’s some screenshot. Secrets out. My golf unit is 20 bucks.