OT-ish: The gambling thread

2020 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: vs Raiders
Pick Results: LAS: 3.4% at NE: 96.6%
Sun
Sep 27th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

Ice_Ice_Brady

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I am paying attention to the Patrick Mahomes futures odds for 2020 MVP. They would have to be unprecedented for me to not take the bet. Like +300 and up and I’ll take it...usually the MVP “favorite” is around +700.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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Hey...I was wondering if anyone has heard of this, as I stumbled upon it the other day. I like counterintuitive paradox math problems and hadn’t heard of it. But it could clearly be applied to sports betting since it has to do with how much to bet based on your confidence in the bet. Might be useful for @mgcolby ’s system if he isn’t already bet sizing based on his system’s probability.

And @Biffins you are a hedge fund manager correct?

I’m guessing there’s an online calculator that can simplify this, but here’s the article and the basic concept.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Kelly criterion - Wikipedia

In one study, each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $250. The behavior of the test subjects was far from optimal:

Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment.[9][10]

Using the Kelly criterion and based on the odds in the experiment (ignoring the cap of $250 and the finite duration of the test), the right approach would be to bet 20% of the pot on each toss of the coin (see first example below). If losing, the size of the bet gets cut; if winning, the stake increases. If the bettors had followed this rule (assuming that bets have infinite granularity and there are up to 300 coin tosses per game and that a player who reaches the cap would stop betting after that), an average of 94% of them would have reached the cap, and the average payout would be $237.36. (In this particular game, because of the cap, a strategy of betting only 12% of the pot on each toss would have even better results.)
 

fightingirish595

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Hey...I was wondering if anyone has heard of this, as I stumbled upon it the other day. I like counterintuitive paradox math problems and hadn’t heard of it. But it could clearly be applied to sports betting since it has to do with how much to bet based on your confidence in the bet. Might be useful for @mgcolby ’s system if he isn’t already bet sizing based on his system’s probability.

And @Biffins you are a hedge fund manager correct?

I’m guessing there’s an online calculator that can simplify this, but here’s the article and the basic concept.
Kelly criterion - Wikipedia

In one study, each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $250. The behavior of the test subjects was far from optimal:

Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment.[9][10]

Using the Kelly criterion and based on the odds in the experiment (ignoring the cap of $250 and the finite duration of the test), the right approach would be to bet 20% of the pot on each toss of the coin (see first example below). If losing, the size of the bet gets cut; if winning, the stake increases. If the bettors had followed this rule (assuming that bets have infinite granularity and there are up to 300 coin tosses per game and that a player who reaches the cap would stop betting after that), an average of 94% of them would have reached the cap, and the average payout would be $237.36. (In this particular game, because of the cap, a strategy of betting only 12% of the pot on each toss would have even better results.)
I do not remember hearing the name Kelly Criterion but I studied something and did an experiment regarding what seems like the same or similar concept in my cognition class

CogLab: Risky Decisions
 

fightingirish595

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The Farmers Insurance Open

Outright Winner Bets

Justin Rose risk 1 unit (+1800)
Gary Woodland risk 1 unit (+2000)
Hideki Matsuyama Risk 1 unit (+2000)
JB Holmes risk .25 units (+15000)
To Finish in the top 10
Sepp Straka risk .5 units (+1000)
Finishing postion

Justin Rose 21st or better to win 5 units (-125)
Tony finau 22nd or better to win 5 units (-125)
Gary Woodland 22nd or better to win 5 units (-125
-11.25 units
 

Brady_to_Moss

28-3....
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Started back up on Bovada after a nice break.

Two nights ago hit a 6 team NHL and NBA Parlay. Good way to get the juices back in it.

Have my SB prop bets in and my bet on SF ML at even money.

Lets do it Jimmy
 

fightingirish595

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-11.25 units
Waste Management Phoenix open

Outright Winner

Bubba Watson risk .75 units (+3000)
Matt Kuchar risk .75 units (+3500)
Webb Simpson 1.5 units (+1400)
Gary woodland +1 unit (+2500)
1st round leader

Brendan Steele risk .5 units (+7000)
Finishing Position

Hideki Matsuyama 18th or better to win 5 units (-130)
Brendan Steele top 10 risk 1 unit (+900)

 

fightingirish595

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So this is the time of year where I start to bet a little basketball and NHL. my plays are either a 4 star pick or a max confidence 5 star pick.

A bit of red boarding here but I had an if bet with LSU -3 first half and then Caps'/Preds over. Both were 5 star plays

I also have the Caps/Preds over parlayed with the Lightning/Kings under. Even if Lightning Kings under loses it will be a profitable night assuming I make no more bets
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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So this is the time of year where I start to bet a little basketball and NHL. my plays are either a 4 star pick or a max confidence 5 star pick.

A bit of red boarding here but I had an if bet with LSU -3 first half and then Caps'/Preds over. Both were 5 star plays

I also have the Caps/Preds over parlayed with the Lightning/Kings under. Even if Lightning Kings under loses it will be a profitable night assuming I make no more bets
No Rock Paper Scissors tournaments?
 

IcyPatriot

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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
So this is the time of year where I start to bet a little basketball and NHL. my plays are either a 4 star pick or a max confidence 5 star pick.

A bit of red boarding here but I had an if bet with LSU -3 first half and then Caps'/Preds over. Both were 5 star plays

I also have the Caps/Preds over parlayed with the Lightning/Kings under. Even if Lightning Kings under loses it will be a profitable night assuming I make no more bets
I play .25c and .50c on NBA Draft Kings ... I suck at it but it's fun.
 

mgcolby

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Ok so after a brief mourning period :D here are the results from the Conference Championship Games....

Picker had a rough week, winless ATS diluting what was a very fine playoff run.

Weekly Results

ATS: 0-2
SU: 2-0

Playoff Results

ATS: 5-4-1 (56%) +0.6 Units
SU: 5-5

Season Results (including Playoffs)

ATS: 106-93-4 (53%) +3.7 Units
SU: 117-86

CCG_picks.JPG
spread_diff_breakdown_CCG.JPG
 

mgcolby

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And without further ado, better late than ever the Picker's picking for the Bowl.

Ladies (actually don't think we have any ladies in this thread, and if there were not sure they would be a "lady", what do you call a lady degenerate? Just a degenerate? :p) and not so gentlemen

It has the Chiefs eeking out a close victory. If the picker is right we should be in for one hell of a game.

One admin related note for this. Typically the picker will spit out two raw scores based on two different matchup/statistical comparisons, for each raw score a point and a half is added for each home team and subtracted for each away team, thus giving the infamoust three point "HFA", creating an "adjusted score" for each team. Then the two "adjusted scores" are totaled and divided by two, giving us the "Predicted Score" I post for each game. Well seeing how this is a neutral field game, I adjusted excel to base the "Predicted Score" on the "Raw Scores" thus removing the three point "HFA" calculation normally used.

One funny tidbit the 49ers predicted score did not change, which was a coincidence of the raw scores. I did double check to make sure I wasn't making a mistake.

SB_picks.JPG
 
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