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OT-ish: The gambling thread

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by fnordcircle, Sep 9, 2018.

  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I am paying attention to the Patrick Mahomes futures odds for 2020 MVP. They would have to be unprecedented for me to not take the bet. Like +300 and up and I’ll take it...usually the MVP “favorite” is around +700.
     
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  2. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Will anyone be following the races at Gulf Stream tomorrow
     
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Hey...I was wondering if anyone has heard of this, as I stumbled upon it the other day. I like counterintuitive paradox math problems and hadn’t heard of it. But it could clearly be applied to sports betting since it has to do with how much to bet based on your confidence in the bet. Might be useful for @mgcolby ’s system if he isn’t already bet sizing based on his system’s probability.

    And @Biffins you are a hedge fund manager correct?

    I’m guessing there’s an online calculator that can simplify this, but here’s the article and the basic concept.

    Kelly criterion - Wikipedia

    In one study, each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. Participants had 30 minutes to play, so could place about 300 bets, and the prizes were capped at $250. The behavior of the test subjects was far from optimal:

    Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment.[9][10]

    Using the Kelly criterion and based on the odds in the experiment (ignoring the cap of $250 and the finite duration of the test), the right approach would be to bet 20% of the pot on each toss of the coin (see first example below). If losing, the size of the bet gets cut; if winning, the stake increases. If the bettors had followed this rule (assuming that bets have infinite granularity and there are up to 300 coin tosses per game and that a player who reaches the cap would stop betting after that), an average of 94% of them would have reached the cap, and the average payout would be $237.36. (In this particular game, because of the cap, a strategy of betting only 12% of the pot on each toss would have even better results.)
     
  4. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Gulfstream race 5 I took the 3 and the 8
     
  5. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Santa Anita 1st race I have the 6
     
  6. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I do not remember hearing the name Kelly Criterion but I studied something and did an experiment regarding what seems like the same or similar concept in my cognition class

    CogLab: Risky Decisions
     
  7. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Race 9 at Galfstream I have the 11
     
  8. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Blew by at 5-1!
     
  9. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Gulf 1o I got the 7. I doubt anyone cares though. But I enjoy posting my picks
     
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  10. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    tough beat on this one. Got beat at the wire by a 35-1

    11th race I have the 6
     
  11. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    -11.25 units
     
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  12. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss 28-3.... PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Started back up on Bovada after a nice break.

    Two nights ago hit a 6 team NHL and NBA Parlay. Good way to get the juices back in it.

    Have my SB prop bets in and my bet on SF ML at even money.

    Lets do it Jimmy
     
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  13. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Waste Management Phoenix open

    Outright Winner

    Bubba Watson risk .75 units (+3000)
    Matt Kuchar risk .75 units (+3500)
    Webb Simpson 1.5 units (+1400)
    Gary woodland +1 unit (+2500)
    1st round leader

    Brendan Steele risk .5 units (+7000)
    Finishing Position

    Hideki Matsuyama 18th or better to win 5 units (-130)
    Brendan Steele top 10 risk 1 unit (+900)

     
  14. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    So this is the time of year where I start to bet a little basketball and NHL. my plays are either a 4 star pick or a max confidence 5 star pick.

    A bit of red boarding here but I had an if bet with LSU -3 first half and then Caps'/Preds over. Both were 5 star plays

    I also have the Caps/Preds over parlayed with the Lightning/Kings under. Even if Lightning Kings under loses it will be a profitable night assuming I make no more bets
     
  15. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Rock Paper Scissors tournaments?
     
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  16. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    no but I do enjoy ant races
     
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  17. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    I play .25c and .50c on NBA Draft Kings ... I suck at it but it's fun.
     
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  18. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ok so after a brief mourning period :D here are the results from the Conference Championship Games....

    Picker had a rough week, winless ATS diluting what was a very fine playoff run.

    Weekly Results

    ATS: 0-2
    SU: 2-0

    Playoff Results

    ATS: 5-4-1 (56%) +0.6 Units
    SU: 5-5

    Season Results (including Playoffs)

    ATS: 106-93-4 (53%) +3.7 Units
    SU: 117-86

    CCG_picks.JPG
    spread_diff_breakdown_CCG.JPG
     
  19. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And without further ado, better late than ever the Picker's picking for the Bowl.

    Ladies (actually don't think we have any ladies in this thread, and if there were not sure they would be a "lady", what do you call a lady degenerate? Just a degenerate? :p) and not so gentlemen

    It has the Chiefs eeking out a close victory. If the picker is right we should be in for one hell of a game.

    One admin related note for this. Typically the picker will spit out two raw scores based on two different matchup/statistical comparisons, for each raw score a point and a half is added for each home team and subtracted for each away team, thus giving the infamoust three point "HFA", creating an "adjusted score" for each team. Then the two "adjusted scores" are totaled and divided by two, giving us the "Predicted Score" I post for each game. Well seeing how this is a neutral field game, I adjusted excel to base the "Predicted Score" on the "Raw Scores" thus removing the three point "HFA" calculation normally used.

    One funny tidbit the 49ers predicted score did not change, which was a coincidence of the raw scores. I did double check to make sure I wasn't making a mistake.

    SB_picks.JPG
     
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  20. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I like the preds/devils game over at 6 but not 6.5 (I got it at 6)
     
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