OT-ish: The gambling thread

[fightingirish595]

Week Nine odds, as of Sunday night:

Raiders at Niners -3½
Bears at Bills No Line
Lions at Vikings -6
Chiefs -8½ at Browns
Jets at Dolphins No Line
Steelers at Ravens -3
Buccaneers at Panthers -6
Falcons at Redskins -2½
Texans at Broncos -1
Chargers at Seahawks -2½
Rams -1 at Saints
Packers at Patriots -6
Titans at Cowboys -4

Bye Week:
Cardinals
Bengals
Colts
Jaguars
Giants
Eagles

Dallas looks like pretty good value.

 

[fnordcircle]

I knew they'd cover all along, ye of little faith.

 

[Soliel]

I was a little nervous about that fourteen

 

[1960Pats]

I have quite a few different lines (in red)

Week Nine odds, as of Sunday night:

Raiders at Niners -3½ (3)
Bears at Bills No Line
Lions at Vikings -6 (5.5)
Chiefs -8½ (8) at Browns
Jets at Dolphins No Line
Steelers at Ravens -3
Buccaneers at Panthers -6 (6.5)
Falcons at Redskins -2½ (1.5)
Texans at Broncos -1 (2.5)
Chargers at Seahawks -2½ (1.5)
Rams -1 at Saints
Packers at Patriots -6 (6.5)
Titans at Cowboys -4 (6.5)

Bye Week:
Cardinals
Bengals
Colts
Jaguars
Giants
Eagles

Anyone know why the Chi@Buf game is off?

 

[1960Pats]

I knew they'd cover all along, ye of little faith.

Thanks Devin

 

[fnordcircle]

I was a little nervous about that fourteen

Me too. I hated that bet, but thanks to D-Mac sticking it to the haters!

 

[Soliel]

Me too. I hated that bet, but thanks to D-Mac sticking it to the haters!

I had actually passed out before that happened but heard it going on and woke back up happy that I wouldn’t need another bottle

 

[1960Pats]

I tallied up my record for the season so far using a method that had been pretty good in the past but not this year.

What I've been doing over the years is take seven Power Rankings, throw out the high and the low for each team and rank the teams from 1-32. I would then pick the best ranked team in each game regardless of the point spread. In the past it worked out okay. I think the main reason it hasn't worked well this year is because the rankings were heavily slanted for NFC teams.

This week was the first week since week #1 that I had a winning week using that method. I also had a 7-7 record last week but would have lost $35 on the vig.

My record so far using the PR vs the line is 51-68-2, or a loss of $1190 at $50 per game.

The favorites breakdown goes like this:
59 favorites covered (30 were more than 3 pts)
34 underdogs won outright (13 were more than 3)
24 favs won/tied but didn't cover (21 were over 3)
4 games tied the spread (none were over 3)

If I get some time I'll try to analyze the home vs away numbers vs the spread.

 

[jmt57]

I have quite a few different lines (in red)



Anyone know why the Chi@Buf game is off?

QB situation with Bills.


Yep, the odds have fluctuated over 24 hours (and will continue to do so) throughout the week, and from one venue to another. Shop around and a half point difference is very common, and a full point difference is not at all rare.

Minnesota at Detroit has already bounced around as well, from Vikings as much as -7 at one venue to a low as -4 at another - a 3 point delta, and here it is it is only Tuesday.

 

[jmt57]

Early Advanced Lookahead Lines for Week 10

Thursday Nov 8, 8:20 pm ET, Fox/NFLN:
Panthers at Steelers (-6½) [opened w/Pit -6]

Sunday Nov 11, 1:00 pm ET, CBS:
Bills at Jets (-7)
Patriots (-6½) at Titans [opened w/Pats -6]
Jaguars at Colts (-1½) [opened w/Ind -2½]

Sunday Nov 11, 1:00 pm ET, Fox:
Falcons (-1½) at Browns [opened w/Atl -1]
Saints (-4½) at Bengals [opened w/NO -4]
Redskins (pk) at Buccaneers
Lions at Bears (-3½) [opened w/Chi -4]
Cardinals at Chiefs (-14½)

Sunday Nov 11, 4:05 pm ET, Fox:
Chargers (-8) at Raiders [opened w/LAC -7½]

Sunday Nov 11, 4:25 pm ET, CBS:
Dolphins at Packers, No Line/Off the Board
Seahawks at Rams (-8½) [opened w/LAR -8]

Sunday Nov 11, 8:20 pm ET, NBC:
Cowboys at Eagles (-6)

Monday Nov 12, 8:15 pm ET, espn:
Giants at Niners (-2) [opened w/SF -2½]

Bye Week:
Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Vikings

 

[luuked]

I get that the Raiders have their own way question marks but I dont get how they are a 1pt underdog against the 49ers with their third string QB.

Way too random for me to bet on but this seems weird.

 

[BobDigital]

So ever since rebooting going into the mid season I am..

4-2
2-3

I HATE having losing weeks at this point. Well time to reset and get back to winning hopefully!

Lions @ Vikings - 5 - I think the Vikings will bounce back after getting beat by one of the best teams in the NFL last week. The Lions are no doubt desperate to win but they just aren't that good and this being an away game for them I think the Vikings are going to win comfortably. Give me the Vikings -5

Rams -1 @ Saints - The Rams are the better team but have to go on the road to beat the Saints. This is going to be a great game for a number of reasons. The Saints for all their defensive woes have arguably the best run D in the NFL right now. I don't think the Rams are good enough to go undefeated this year With that in mind I am picking this to be the one they lose. Give the the Saints +1.

Bears @ Bills U/O 37.5 - The Bills just can't seem the score. The question is do they commit enough turnovers to give the Bears an easy 10-14 points? Mack not being fully healthy makes me more likely to believe they won't. Bills hold the Bears down just enough at home to not let them score too much. Give me the under 37.5

Bucs @ Panthers U/O 55 - The Panthers seem to score at home and the Bucs seem to be scoring at a good clip this year. I want to be contrarian and assume the opposite of trends but I think it continues just enough here to get 56 points on the board. Give me the over.

I'll try to find one more bet I like to make 5 but these are the ones I'm putting down for now.

 

[jmt57]

Onward and upward:

Top Week 9 Picks:
Vikings -4½ vs Lions ... Min 24, Det 9
Seahawks -½ vs Chargers ... LAC 25, Sea 17
Saints +2½ vs Rams ... NO 45, LAR 35

The Rest of Week 9:
Chiefs -8 at Browns ... KC 37, Cle 21
Steelers +3 at Ravens ... Pit 23, Bal 16
Buccaneers +7 at Panthers ... Car 42, TB 28
Dolphins -3 vs Jets ... Mia 13, NYJ 6
Falcons +2 at Washington ... Atl 38, Was 14
Bills +10½ vs Bears ... Chi 41, Buf 9
Texans +1½ at Broncos ... Hou 19, Den 17
Packers +5½ at Patriots ... Pats 31, GB 17
Titans +5 at Cowboys ... Ten 28, Dal 14

Week 9 Point Totals:
Lions at Vikings under 49½ ... 33: Min 24-9
Jets at Dolphins under 44½ ... 19: Mia 13-6
Packers at Patriots under 57½ ... 48: NE 31-17
Chargers at Seahawks over 48 ... 42: LAC 25-17
Rams at Saints over 56½ ... 80: NO 45-35
Chiefs at Browns under 52 ... 58: KC 37-21

5-point, 5-game Teaser:
Titans +10
Seahawks +4½
Lions-Vikings under 54½
Jets-Dolphins under 49½
Saints +7½

 

[Froob]

Philly -7 over Dallas is one of my best bets of the year. That’s going to be a **** kicking.

Also, Philly EVEN odds to make the playoffs. This is fantastic value. I hate them, but I’ll be stunned if they don’t win that division. Get these odds while you can before they **** stomp Dallas.

 

[1960Pats]

I've done better the last 3 weeks with my imaginary $50 bets of all games with a 25-16 record and $370 in winnings. But overall for the full season I stand at 60-72-2 for a net loss of $960.

This week the system has me picking:
atPitt (-4),
NO (+4.5),
Atl (+4),
atGB (-9),
atInd (-3), -Push-
atChi (-6.5),
atKC (-16.5),
NE (-7),
Was (+2.5),
atNJ (-7.5),
LAC (+9.5), ?
atLAR (-10),
atPhi (-6),
atSF (-3)

 

[BobDigital]

Last week was nice. Got back on track. Sadly the Bears/Bills screwed me. Way too many points given up by the Bills offense to the bears defense.. It is nice to have a bounce back week though! We are at the point in the season where there are no excuses anymore to misses the majority of your bets.

4-2
2-3
3-1

Panthers @ Steelers- U/O 51.5 - Carolina tends to score a lot at home. On the road? Not so much. Even so it is hard for me to turn this one down. Neither D has been horrible but they haven't been good either. I usually hate betting on Thursday night games but this is a rare exception. It may be fluky with the final score but I see it being more of a high scoring game. Give me the over.

Saints @ Bengals - U/O 54 - The Saint tend to score no matter where they play. That shouldn't change in Ohio in early November. The Bengals offense has been good and should continue to be vs a so-so defense. Don't even get me started on the Bengals crap defense. Honestly. I may have been tempted to take this game at 60 points. Give me the over all day!

Falcons -4 @ Cleveland - Cleveland was in a lot of game early in the season. That has faded recently. Cleveland seems to have lost some pep to their step after a nice early surprise of 2-2-1. They have now lost 4 straight and 3 haven't been close. I don't believe in the Cleveland Browns HFA. It is one of the worst in sports and who can blame the fans for not showing up after so many disappointing years? -4 isn't much to ask. Just win by more than a late FG and that will do it most of the time. Give me the Falcons -4.

Pats - 6.5 @ Titans - The Patriots haven't had a really solid road win all season. I don't see them losing this game before the bye. They know how important keeping pace with KC is right now and they don't want a slight up. The questions is do they win pretty or ugly. If they win pretty they easily cover. If they win ugly they may cover anyway. The Titans had their best game of the year last week. A lot of plays and bounces went their way. They had another great loss vs San Diego but i don't take much from games where both teams fly to England. The Titans are hot and cold but an average team in the end. The Patriots have been solid the last 5 weeks and won by more than 7 in every game against a team not called 'KC'. The Titans are no KC. Give me the Pats -6.5.

Dolphins @ Packers - 9.5 - What is the worst team with a winning record in the NFL right now? The answer is Miami and it ISN'T EVEN CLOSE. They got off to a hot start while the rest of the NFL was figuring their crap out and eked out enough wins to stay above .500. They are not going 6-4 at GB. No way, no how! GB NEEDS this game and they know it. The Dolphins have had 2 kinds of games in their last 6. Games where they lose by more than 10 points (4) and games where they barely win against a horrible teams (NJY) or an injured Bears team with the help of a WHOLE BUNCH of fluky plays. GB at home rights the ship against what is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Give me GB - 9.5.

Edit: Late add and thank you to someone who edited my post and made it look all professional

Cardinals @ Chiefs -16 - This spread was 18 points to start the week. I was tempted but hesitant. That is a lot of points to give up and KC hasn't had many blow out wins this season due to their bad D. However, I just don't see AZ scoring much. Their highest total was 28 points and that was with a 75 yard TD pass from Rosen, a fumble which gave them the ball at the 18, and interception which gave them the ball at the 23, and a fumble returned for a TD. Basically a total fluke. They haven't broken 18 in any other game this year and that will probably be the case again. I feel like this is a game you would be scared to take but half way through the 2nd quarter you will be kicking yourself for being scared of the spread when you see KC already has a 14 point lead and is poised to add more. The key here is KC is at home and I think that will help their D which has been solid enough at home. Give me KC -16

 

[JarOfMayo51]

going for the sucker bet this week!

I hit one last year on a 7 team parlay

 

[Joker]

again...like the Barfalo laydown last week, the big play this week is Philly giving the points.The empty headed, empty career head coach Jason Garrett is the dead man walking of the week.

That Rams line at -10 is pretty intimidating against a streaky team like Seattle. I'd jump at it though except...who knows what the air quality is going to be like. If these players can't breathe the game could be low scoring. It has always been my strategy to back off any game where the environmental variables play a factor.A warm sunny SoCal day and I would bet the Rams win by three scores at least.

 

[jmt57]

Week Ten already? Wow...
Rolling the dice with an unhealthy number of road teams this week.

Top Picks:
Falcons -4½ at Browns
Redskins +3½ at Bucs
Chargers -10 at Raiders
Cowboys at Eagles -6½
Lions at Bears under 45

5-Point, 5-Game Teaser:
Cowboys at Eagles -1½
Chargers -5 at Raiders
Redskins +8½ at Bucs
Patriots -1½ at Titans
Cardinals at Chiefs -10½

Week Ten:
Bills +7½ at Jets
(Peterman has been benched, and the Jets are the Jets)
Falcons -4½ at Browns
Saints -5½ at Bengals
(Too many Cincy injuries > NO letdown)
Redskins +3½ at Buccaneers
(TB defense is awful, TB lame duck HC)
Patriots -6½ at Titans
Dolphins at Packers -9½
Jaguars +3 at Colts
Lions +7½ at Bears
Cardinals at Chiefs -15½
Chargers -10 at Raiders
Seahawks +10 at Rams
Cowboys at Eagles -6½
Giants at Niners -3
Lions at Bears under 45
Wash at TB over 50½
Jacksonville +150 at Indy

 

[jmt57]

Back on Tuesday (11/6) these were the Early Look-Ahead Lines for Week 11.

Obviously these are no longer the current odds after Sunday's Week 10 final scores.

Week 11 Odds as of 8 pm ET on Sunday:
Packers at Seahawks (-3), 49½
Texans (-3) at Redskins, 43
Steelers (-5½) at Jaguars, 47½
Bengals at Ravens, no line
Panthers (-3½) at Lions
Cowboys at Falcons, no line
Titans at Colts (-3), 48½
Buccaneers at Giants, no line
Raiders at Cardinals (-3½), 41
Broncos at Chargers (-7), 47
Eagles at Saints (-7)
Vikings at Bears (-3)
Chiefs at Rams (-2½), 63½

Bye Week:
Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers