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OT-ish: The gambling thread


I’d made some of my jags game disaster money back. Still in a hole
 
I have a wager that the pats will win over 11 games. You guys think I’ll hit that? I’ll take a push I guess. But I want that number 1 seed

I mean, yeah. I think they'll win 12. Look at their remaining schedule and find 3 games they should lose. I can't do it, but I'm an insufferable homer.
 
$1k on the Pats -3 on the road. IDGAF about home dogs, I'll put money on the Pats -3 every time I can.

Yep. I’m going to take the plunge too. The Chicago game, I don’t want to give the bears points but wtf? Might not have more than two years to be this kind of team
 
I hit my 3 team parlay

Falcons -3
Chargers -1
Steelers +1.5

Bet $10
Won $60

I used to love parlays back when Bill Fitch was coaching the Celtics. I'd take them, the Sixers and Lakers and count my money.
 
Week 7 odds as of Wednesday evening - give or take a half point or so, depending on the venue that you prefer to visit.

Thursday:
Broncos (-1½) at Cardinals, [42]
Early:
Titans at Chargers (-6½), [45]
Patriots (-3) at Bears, [49½]
Browns at Buccaneers (-3), [50]
Lions (-3) at Dolphins, [47]
Panthers at Eagles (-4½), [45½]
Bills at Colts (-7½), [43]
Vikings (-3½) at Jets, [46½]
Texans at Jaguars (-4½), [42]
Late:
Saints at Ravens (-2½), [50]
Cowboys at Redskins (-1½), [41½]
Rams (-9½) at Niners, [52]
Night:
Bengals at Chiefs (-6), [58½]
Giants at Falcons (-5½), [54½]
 
Yesterday's Week 8 Early Advanced 'Look-Ahead' Lines from the Westgate:

TNF: Dolphins at Texans (No Line)

London: Eagles vs Jaguars (Pick 'em)

Early:
Broncos at Chiefs (-9½)
Jets at Bears (-5)
Redskins at Giants (-1)
Seahawks at Lions (-2½)
Buccaneers at Bengals (-5)
Ravens at Panthers (Pick' em)

Late:
Colts at Raiders (-1½)
Niners at Cardinals (-2)
Packers at Rams (-8½)

Night:
Saints at Vikings (-3)
Patriots at Bills (No Line)
 
$1k on the Pats -3 on the road. IDGAF about home dogs, I'll put money on the Pats -3 every time I can.

I’ll be stressing out for you on Sunday lol
 
I’ll be stressing out for you on Sunday lol

Last year I bet $1k on the opener. I haven't been stressed since then about a bet. And I'm betting the casino's money this time.

Honestly between the Pats and the tables since the start of the season I've only lost twice, so I'm due for some losing.
 
Skipped last week but I am back with some more bets. I am getting ready to turn things around now! The week sauce start to the season is over! Now that we have 6 games of tape on teams we can start to be more confident about what they are and what to expect.

IDK if I plan to place any actual bets this year but if I were now is the time when I would actually start to consider it. Of course the later the better but at this point it is more safe than it would have been. From now on I will name 6 bets I like. As my confidence grows I might name more.

Patriots - 2 @ Bears - This is a virtual pick em. I think the Pats start to roll and win this game. If I believe they will win I may as well take the 2 points. ✅

KC - 6 @ Bengals - KC just came off a tough loss and are poised to have a nice solid win. The Bengals offense has been doing well but frankly I just look at the talent they have and they are clearly playing above their heads. I like KC to cover. ✅

Rams @ SF - O/U 52.5 - SF hasn't been as good as i thought they would be but they have managed to score well in all but one of their games in which their new QB has played in. I don't see why they shouldn't drop 21 while the Rams feast on a so-so D. Taking the over all day. ❌

Vikings -3 @ Jets - Vikings need to have this game. 3 points isn't quiet a virtual pickem but almost. I would love it at 2.5 though. The Vikings are too good to stay down much longer. I they go 3-3-1 they give themselves an uphill climb. No way the let the Jets off the hook in a much needed win. They will come out and establish themselves as an NFC team to take seriously as the season moves towards the midpoint. ✅

Lions -1 @ Dolphins - Do you really believe the Dolphins can go 5-2? really? No chance. The Lions are inconsistent and not good but I just don't believe a team that has caught the breaks the dolphins have recently in some of their wins keep getting them. The ball bounces the other way this time. Give me the Lions all day. ✅

Jacksonville - 4 @ Houston - Jacksonville has the ability to be one of the best teams in the NFL when they have their head on right. At 3-3 their back is against the wall. Houston isn't that good. This is a scales balancing out game. A hot team that has been lucky and played over its head goes down to a good team which has underwhelmed. ❌

I realize I am picking against 5 home teams but what can you do? It is that kind of week! Here starts my comeback!
 
I realize I am picking against 5 home teams but what can you do? It is that kind of week! Here starts my comeback!
Not going against your picks because wtf do I know, but the logic that you’re using here is a bit outside of the box. Again, I should remind you that my initial week one investment is long gone, so maybe you’re right, but taking a bunch of road faves in the NFL is risky business.
 
I don’t like this giving up 3 on the road. I’ll do it for a c note but going to bet in the work pool and buy a few squares.

Winning this game at all is a hard deal. With no gronk and I gotta give up pints. Ha ha that’s a laugher
 
Fnord, did you take this bet?
 
My picks for week 7 are
Den, ✅
LAC, ❌
KC, ✅
Cle, ✅
Phi, ❌
Min, ✅
Mia, ❌
NE, ✅
Buf, ❌
Jac, ❌
NO, ✅
Was, ✅
LAR, ✅
Atl ❌
 
The totals so far by the lines are as follows;
* 42 favorites have won and covered (23 were more than 3 points).
* 33 underdogs have won (11 were more than 3).
* 17 teams won but didn't cover (15 were more than 3).
* 4 teams tied the spread (none were more than 3).
 
Week 7 odds as of Sunday morning 9:15 ET - give or take half a point depending on where you shop:

Morning (London):
Titans 'at' Charger (-6½), [46]

Early Games:
Patriots (-1½) at Bears, [48½]
Browns at Bucs (-3½), [52]
Lions (-3) at Dolphins, [47]
Panthers at Eagles (-5), [45]
Bills at Colts (-7), [43]

Vikings (-3½) at Jets, [45]
Texans at Jaguars (-3½), [41½]

Late Games:
Saints at Ravens (-2½), [49]
Cowboys (-1) at Redskins, [41½]
Rams (-9) at Niners, [52]

Night Games:
Bengals at Chiefs (-6), [57½]
Giants at Falcons (-4), [53½]
 
Went to the Parlay window once again.
I'm starting to feel like Charlie Brown attempting to kick a football that Lucy is holding with these parlays, but this will be a nice little bonus should all five games go my way.

Week 7 Top Picks:
Redskins (+1) at home vs Dallas ✅ Was 20, Dal 17
Patriots (-1½) on road at Chicago ✅ NWE 38, Chi 31
Vikings (-3½) on road at Jets ✅ Min 37, NYJ 17
Rams (-9) on road at Niners ✅ LAR 39, SF 10
Falcons (-4) at home vs Giants ❌ Atl 23, NYG 20

Rest of Week 7 Picks:
Chargers (-6½) vs Titans ❌ LAC 20, Ten 19
Browns (+3½) at Bucs ✅ TB 26, Cle 23, OT
Lions (-3) at Dolphins ✅ Det 32, Mia 21
Panthers (+5) at Eagles ✅ Car 21, Phi 17
Bills (+7) at Colts ❌ Ind 37, Buf 5
Jaguars (-3½) vs Texans ❌ Hou 20, Jax 7
Saints (+2½) at Ravens ✅ NO 24, Bal 23
Chiefs (-6) vs Bengals ✅ KC 45, Cin 10


Decided to try a 5-point Teaser as well: ✅
Patriots (+3½) ✅
Rams (-4) ✅
Saints (+7½) ✅
Redskins (+6) ✅
Chiefs (-1) ✅
 
Not going against your picks because wtf do I know, but the logic that you’re using here is a bit outside of the box. Again, I should remind you that my initial week one investment is long gone, so maybe you’re right, but taking a bunch of road faves in the NFL is risky business.

I realize my logic is out of the box. Here is the thing about the NFL though... It is a league in which teams are highly inconsistent week to week. If you pick your spots well you can bank on that.

The Lions -1 were one of my fav picks of the week and worked out the best for no other reason than I knew they weren't that good and they have caught breaks and played above their head. When I say these outside the box things I am banking partly on inconsistency but also partly on the human factor. The Dolphins are a team that will go 8-8 at best. They just aren't that good. more likely below 8-8. Assuming that is true this game gave me a chance to basically just assume one of their 7-8 upcoming loses out of the next 10 games. I know each game is its own entity but I also know a below average team when i see one and they rarely have good records.

As for the Jags prediction I was honestly surprised. With how good they can play they seem to have completely lost whatever it was they had going for themselves last year and early into this year. I banked on them showing so bank bone and getting back in the AFC hunt. This was a game they HAD TO have to do that. Now their season is likely in the crapper unless they go on an amazing run the rest of the way.

Overall this looks like it will be my first winning week if KC keeps it up. I don't wanna toot my own horn but like i said... after week 6 or so you can start to see actually make decent bets.
 
Fnord, did you take this bet?

The Bears? Yeah I put $1k on the Pats -3. ✅

I'm hating the Buffalo line. -14 last I looked. I can easily see a scenario where the Patriots get up by 21+ and then there's some garbage time **** from the Bills.
 
I don't wanna toot my own horn but like i said... after week 6 or so you can start to see actually make decent bets.

Why buy yourself a horn if you aren't going to toot it from time to time? It makes no sense.

Week 10 is my week when I'll start to think about other bets. The 'sure wins' are actually more like sure wins by that point.
 


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