OT-ish: The gambling thread

[Joker]

buncha dyam degenerates....( I like it though..)

 

[fnordcircle]

$300 on the Pats -14. **** that line, but I'm not gonna stop betting on my team.

 

[supafly]

I realize my logic is out of the box. Here is the thing about the NFL though... It is a league in which teams are highly inconsistent week to week. If you pick your spots well you can bank on that.

The Lions -1 were one of my fav picks of the week and worked out the best for no other reason than I knew they weren't that good and they have caught breaks and played above their head. When I say these outside the box things I am banking partly on inconsistency but also partly on the human factor. The Dolphins are a team that will go 8-8 at best. They just aren't that good. more likely below 8-8. Assuming that is true this game gave me a chance to basically just assume one of their 7-8 upcoming loses out of the next 10 games. I know each game is its own entity but I also know a below average team when i see one and they rarely have good records.

As for the Jags prediction I was honestly surprised. With how good they can play they seem to have completely lost whatever it was they had going for themselves last year and early into this year. I banked on them showing so bank bone and getting back in the AFC hunt. This was a game they HAD TO have to do that. Now their season is likely in the crapper unless they go on an amazing run the rest of the way.

Overall this looks like it will be my first winning week if KC keeps it up. I don't wanna toot my own horn but like i said... after week 6 or so you can start to see actually make decent bets.

Nice picking, Bob Didgy.

 

[Soliel]

I’ll take the plunge but I want it on record that I hate giving up huge points on the road. I mean, buffalo New York is close to where they found that weird underground snake thing.

 

[Soliel]

Aliens Didn’t Build The Great Serpent Mound!!


See what I mean? It’s bad luck even looking at that thing

 

[jmt57]

Week 9 Early Advanced 'Lookahead' Lines:

Raiders at 49ers (-2½)
Lions at Vikings (-6½)
Chiefs (-7) at Browns
Steelers at Ravens (-3)
Buccaneers at Panthers (-4½)
Jets xx at Miami xx
Falcons at Redskins (-1)
Bears xx at Bills xx
Texans (-1½) at Broncos
Chargers at Seahawks (pk)
Rams at Saints (pk)
Packers at Patriots (-7½)
Titans at Cowboys (-4)​

Back to the upcoming games, here are current (Wednesday Oct 24 7:30 pm ET) odds.
As always, lines may vary a half point or so depending on where you visit.

Thursday:
Dolphins at Texans (-7½), [44]
Morning (London):
Eagles (-3) 'at' Jaguars, [42]
Early Games:
Browns at Steelers (-8), [50½]
Broncos at Chiefs (-10), [53½]
Jets at Bears (-7), [45]
Redskins (-1) at Giants, [42½]
Seahawks at Lions (-3), [49½]
Buccaneers at Bengals (-4½), [54] . . . opened w/Cincy -6
Ravens (-2) at Panthers, [43½] . . . opened as PK
Late Games:
Colts (-3) at Raiders, [49½] . . . opened as PK
Niners at Cardinals (PK), [42½] . . . must-see tv here
Packers at Rams (-9½), [56½] . . . opened w/Rams -10½
Night Games:
Saints at Vikings (PK), [52]
Patriots (-14) at Bills, [44½]

Blue & Bold = game between two teams with winning records.

 

[BobDigital]

I went 4-2 last week after a very bad run early on. I basically burned those results as they were bets I would never have even considered making in the first place and I am starting for real now. (Still not placing any real bets as I like to wait until into the 2nd half to do it but now I think picks can be semi-reliable).

Here are my week 8 picks.

Indy @ Oakland - pick em - This is an interesting game. You have 2 teams with a similar record but it is deceiving. Indy has been in most of their loses and scoring points while Oakland has been blown out. In this case I will pick the much less bad Indy to overcome Oakland's useless home field advantage and win. Give me Indy.

Pats - 14 @ Bills - This is a year that has consistently rewarded gamblers for not running from large spreads. 2 TDs is a lot to give with a underwhelming defense from the Patriots in recent weeks but the Pats are going to right the ship enough this week to cover. They are gonna absolutely kill what may be the 2nd worst team in the NFL. Give me the Pats.

Pats @ Bills - 44.5 O/U - Rarely do I place 2 bets on the same game. But I have to here. The 44.5 is just too tempting. The Pats will fall out of bed and score 35 points this game as their absolute baseline. To bet on the Pats to hold any team to under 10 no matter how bad is hard to believe at this point. Even if they somehow do the Pats just scoring 35 seems unlikely as they don't have a running game to lean on in the 4th anymore as they would like. Give me the over.

Ravens @ Carolina - 44 O/U - The more I think about this game the more I like it. Both teams will look to speed up the game. The only thing I don't like is how good Carolina's offense has been at home. Overall the Raven's D has traveled well save for one game so I need to predict within that trend. Give me the under.

GB @ Rams - 9.5 - It is hard to give Rodgers 10 points. However GB has been average so far and a pretty horrible road team. Their offense while decent has not been overly dynamic on the whole. I hate to take this bet as Rodgers, like most QBs, loves to get garbage points. But this is one of the rare cases where I value a teams bad road play enough to take this game. Give me the Rams at -9.5.

I don't see another bet I like so I will just go with these five. Hopefully I go 3-2 or better and have another winning week. A lot depends on the Patriots game as I put 2 bets on them which i rare for me to do for one game... but I like both bets so much.

 

[supafly]

I think the spreads against GB in the next two games are a bit too high. Just my opinion.

 

[jmt57]

Week 8 Picks:
Redskins (-1) at Giants ... Was 20, NYG 13
Bears (-7) vs Jets ... Chi 24, NYJ 10
Buccaneers (+4½) at Bengals ... Cin 37, TB 34

Week 8 Point Totals:
Eagles vs Jaguars (under 42½) ... 42 - Phi 24, Jax 18
Redskins at Giants (over 42½) ... 33 - Was 20, NYG 13
Ravens at Panthers (under 43½) ... 57 - Car 36, Bal 21
Broncos at Chiefs (under 53½) ... 53 - KC 30, Den 23

The rest:
Eagles (-3) vs Jaguars ... Phi 24, Jax 18
Browns (+8) at Steelers ... Pit 33, Cle 18
Chiefs (-10) vs Broncos ... KC 30, Den 23
Lions (-3) vs Seahawks ... Sea 28, Det 14
Panthers (+2) vs Ravens ... Car 36, Bal 21
Colts (-3) at Raiders ... Ind 42, Oak 28
Cardinals (pk) vs Niners ... Ari 18, SF 15
Packers (+9½) at Rams ... LAR 29, GB 27
Saints (pk) at Vikings ... NO 30, Min 20
Bills (+14) vs Patriots ... NWE 25, Buf 6

5-Point, 5-Game Teaser:
Redskins (+4)
Bears (-2)
Chiefs (-5)
Patriots (-9)
Saints (+5)

Bye Week:
Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers, Titans

 

[XLIX]

I’ll take the plunge but I want it on record that I hate giving up huge points on the road. I mean, buffalo New York is close to where they found that wierd underground snake thing.

Hey, Buffalo is an All-American City..!!

(At least, that’s what the sign on I-90 says when you’re headed westbound and entering from the east side of town)

 

[Froob]

Packers +9 is a great bet.

Redskins -2 seems fishy but, should be good.

 

[Froob]

Wow Jags made Carson Wentz look like Nick Foles on that play.

 

[fightingirish595]

Hard bet this league during the regular season. Can’t make any significant money. I don’t wanna risk 550 on 5 games just to go 3-2 and win 80 bucks. 550 to win 80? That’s just not what I’m looking for. In college yesterday I won like 100 bucks but I risked way more

I haven’t made significant money betting on games themseleves in 2 years when it seemed like I got every break I needed and was hitting a 6 team 7 point teaser every other week. I’m honestly better at betting golf than I am football

Just going to do a 6 team teaser every week if anything.

And I’ll stick to my futures and props which I’m pretty good at

 

[supafly]

Packers +9 is a great bet. Redskins -2 seems fishy but, should be good.

I’ll take GB with Aaron Rodgers and a crapload if points, every single time. That holds true for next week’s game, too. Those are solid bets.

 

[Froob]

I’ll take GB with Aaron Rodgers and a crapload if points, every single time. That holds true for next week’s game, too. Those are solid bets.

Carolina a big winner again this week for me. Why were they home dogs?

 

[supafly]

Carolina a big winner again this week for me. Why were they home dogs?

That’s a great question.

 

[Froob]

That’s a great question.

Just a week after they were +5 in Philly. They are at least on par with both teams and look to actually be better.

 

[fightingirish595]

I’ll take GB with Aaron Rodgers and a crapload if points, every single time. That holds true for next week’s game, too. Those are solid bets.

I agree, even though I have seen aaron and his team drop some duds on the road, getting that many points is worth it

 

[fightingirish595]

Actually hit a 6 team teaser today. had 5 of the games at 1 so it came down to the Rams -.5. I hedged it with a live spread bet on green bay +4.5. Won 300 on the day. I will take it.

 

[jmt57]

Week Nine odds, as of Sunday night:

Raiders at Niners -3½
Bears at Bills No Line
Lions at Vikings -6
Chiefs -8½ at Browns
Jets at Dolphins No Line
Steelers at Ravens -3
Buccaneers at Panthers -6
Falcons at Redskins -2½
Texans at Broncos -1
Chargers at Seahawks -2½
Rams -1 at Saints
Packers at Patriots -6
Titans at Cowboys -4

Bye Week:
Cardinals
Bengals
Colts
Jaguars
Giants
Eagles