Under Belichick and Brady, the Pats been in the playoffs three times without a bye. One time the Pats were leading in the AFCCG with 1:02 left in the game and gave up a TD because a bogus call (face guarding call on Ellis Hobbs which isn't even a foul in the NFL) put the Colts on the one yardline. I don't know if that is good enough sample size to determine this team needs the bye.
I still believe it is all about getting hot in the playoffs. Most of the Super Bowl winners over the last decade were not the best team in the NFL. In fact, many of them barely even got into the playoffs. They just got hot at the right time.
I don't want the 6 seed because they have a better shot to win the Super Bowl that way. But all I care about is them getting in and getting hot around playoff time.
In any other "regular" year (or as regular as it can be lately) I would agree that we don't necessarily
need the bye. However, in this particular year, anyone who doesn't think we
need to have 2 weeks rest to prepare for ONE home game to go to the AFCCG and let the chips fall where they may is
delusional in my opinion.
1. This team has given up double digit deficits in its last 5/6 games, including leads to teams such as MIA (14-0), CAR (10-0), DEN (24-0), HOU (10-0), and CLE (12-0); many of them being mediocre NFL teams or worse. The only one of those 6 games where they didn't have a major deficit and start the game off down significantly was PIT, and even then they gave up a 2 TD lead like it was nothing.
2. 9 out of 10 games that they've been in this year where the score has been within a TD or less (7 pts) have come down to the very last minute or less of regulation or has gone into overtime. Sure, they have a 7-3 record in those 10 games (the most in over a decade, with 3 games still remaining), but these last 2 paragraphs certainly lead the average spectator to believe that they are having some SERIOUS luck. I'm not meaning to undermine their accomplishments by any means, and it's been great to see the resiliency of the current squad, but these aren't the kinds of victories that you can depend on in the playoffs when the competition stiffens tremendously. The MIA's, CLE's, and HOU's of the world aren't going to be there.
3. Since September when our defense was actually looking good, our last 8 games or exactly half a season, our defense has given up an average of close to 28 points per game. September is a LONG way off, our defense is entirely different, and let's face it...they pretty much suck on that side of the ball. I'm not saying that they don't have a good game or two in them, but having to not only continue to the regular season with no break, but also play a whole extra game while going on the road (against a top level competitor) isn't exactly setting up to be a winning situation for the 2013 Patriots team. In most part years it's been a Belichick staple that the defense improves as we head into the final stretch. This year it's the complete opposite. They've regressed and taken steps backwards.
4. To take this one step further, they are 1-3 in their last four road games. They look much more like the 2009 Patriots team who struggled on the road, than any of the recent teams of the past 2-3 yrs.
5. They now have to deal with starting over from scratch with their best offensive player aside from Brady gone, only this time there isn't any 12 ppg average defense to fall back on. Our offense was 1st in the league in many categories in the past 7 games with Gronk back, and it was the main factor that allowed us to be able to compete in all of the games that we were down 10+ points in. Only time will tell whether the trio of slow white guys named Edelman, Amendola, or Collie clogging up the initial 10 yds of the line of scrimmage down the middle (along with Mulligan, Devlin, and Hooman) can somehow keep defenses honest enough until the rookies come back. I never thought I'd see the day where I thought guys like Dobson and Thompkins would be so badly missed just to try and force the defense into playing a different type of scheme.
6. They've yet to be able to prove themselves capable of stopping the run, winning the battles in the trenches on either side of the ball, or getting much pressure on the QB. These are important aspects when you're heading into the playoffs, as is keeping the one player who is most important to your success healthy and upright on the offensive line. The injuries to Solder, Svitek, and Cannon certainly aren't helping, and the middle pressure allowed from guys such as Dan Connelly and Ryan Wendell isn't doing much to think that we'd be able to go on the road and play 4 games to win the SB.
7. There's been no consistency in the run game. Hopefully that will change if/when Ridley starts getting reps as the lead back again, although he hasn't exactly tore it up so far this year even when he has. They'll need to prove that they can actually run the ball effectively, especially with the uncertainly on offense with attempting to overcome the loss of Gronkowski. Until that happens, we're pretty much one-dimensional, and now we're one-dimensional without our biggest weapon. It doesn't exactly set up well for having to play without the bye week.
8. The obvious injury situation, which isn't just about the important players who aren't coming back, but also the players such as Talib, Arrington, Dennard, Gregory, Spikes, Solder, Dobson, Thompkins, and that isn't even including any injuries that Brady himself is keeping to himself. The ability to have an extra week of rest and a break between the regular season can't be stated enough. It's of the utmost importance.
Again, this isn't necessarily meaning to take away any of the wonderful accomplishments that the 2013 team has achieved, only to state the severe weaknesses that playing without the bye would give us. This current team isn't suddenly going to overcome all of these problems and be an actual contender unless it gets that much needed bye week in my opinion. Then it's a whole different ballgame. Then it's simply win ONE game at home (which will be difficult enough in itself), and then play the AFCCG and hope for the best; but it's at least a much more viable thought that the other scenario.
