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That's why even if its reported that he signed a deal that "averages $10MM/yr", I'd be shocked is that after the dust settled, we'll find out that he gets very little up front (like $2MM) and the rest has to be earned. I'm also sure that the contract will have more than few outs and morals clauses in the team's favor.
I get where you're going with this, and I agree that they may certainly give themselves an out, but I highly doubt that anyone is going to give him as little as 2m dollars up front/guaranteed.
We're talking about a WR who is fairly polished and talented, despite the recent accusations in the media which may/may not be true.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if your prediction was short by about 500% in terms of the guaranteed money. Obviously, we'll know soon enough and it hardly matters either way.
Jackson would have been a nice pickup for reasonable money in the 5-6 million dollar AAV range. Unfortunately, WRs of that kind of talent usually don't go for anything that low when they can offer a deeper, outside type of threat and are coming off of a 1,300 yd season.