Are there any first round prospects you really don't want?

[Deus Irae]

But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them.

Not sure where you're getting the notion that the listed players, particularly the players in bold, were value picks rated much higher...

 

[Rob0729]

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

If I remember correctly, Rohan Davey was actually one of the more top rated QBs in the 2002 draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

If I remember correctly, Rohan Davey was actually one of the more top rated QBs in the 2002 draft.

Rohan Davey was the 6th QB taken in that draft. It's been a while and the draft position of Rohan Davey is not something I focused on remembering, so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't recall him being rated higher than anyone taken above him.

 

[Rob0729]

Rohan Davey was the 6th QB taken in that draft. It's been a while and the draft position of Rohan Davey is not something I focused on remembering, so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't recall him being rated higher than anyone taken above him.

View attachment 32187

I didn't mean he was rated as first rounder. I just meant he was not considered sixth or seventh round flyer. According to his Wikipedia page, he was ranked fourth best QB by NFLDraftScout.com.

 

[Deus Irae]

I didn't mean he was rated as first rounder. I just meant he was not considered sixth or seventh round flyer. According to his Wikipedia page, he was ranked fourth best QB by NFLDraftScout.com.

Like I said, I wasn't saying you were wrong. I just think that looking at QBs by round taken, rather than by when taken among QBs, is a poor way to break it down. And I think that's become increasingly true as the league has trended more and more to a passing league with QBs protected, because that's warped the drafting pattern with regards to QBs. Davey's just one example, but pretty much every QB on Upstater's list fits that.

 

[Deus Irae]

But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them.

Garoppolo was the 5th QB drafted, and was clearly rated behind first two QBs taken, who are the busts taken ahead of him.

 

[Sicilian]

Rohan Davey was the 6th QB taken in that draft. It's been a while and the draft position of Rohan Davey is not something I focused on remembering, so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't recall him being rated higher than anyone taken above him.

View attachment 32187

And what a year for QB's THAT was...

 

[Deus Irae]

But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them.

Mallett was rated down because of both on field and off field problems, despite Mayock's "first round arm talent" evaluation.



He was the 7th QB taken in a bad draft, and that 7th slot is where he was valued (Walter Football), because of his issues. In fact, history being available to us, we can see that a re-draft would probably only result in him still being picked 7th, with Locker and Ponder washing out, but Yates and Taylor taking their places as QBs who'd be taken ahead of Mallett.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Do not want at 15:
-HB
-TE (not named pitts)
-OL (not named Sewell or Slater)
-any QB outside of the top 5 consensus
-DT
-S
-CB (not named Horn or Surtain)
-LB (not named Parsons or Collins)
-Kicker/Punter

 

[borisman]

Funny, I was going to start a "WTF Pick" thread but this is the same thing.

My WTF picks would be:
Trevon Moehrig
Jayson Oweh
JOK

 

[50-yard-line]

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

A backup QB in the NFL can be pricey. A third-round QB draft pick is drafted as a back-up, usually (and always with a team that has Brady). The only guy in your list picked as a replacement for Brady was Garoppolo. The rest were considered capable fill-ins in case of emergency, thus saving millions on the cap.

You claimed that another poster was "intentionally misreading" your posts, but it seems like a lot of us are. It's the part where you ask how anyone can have faith in the Pats' QB drafting. When I look at their QB picks in the Brady era, even the UDFA, I'm seeing a lot more positives than with almost any other team.

So yes, I have faith in their QB evaluation, as much as anyone can have in any team...which means I know it's more of a crapshoot than the yipping "experts" seem to believe.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

Well said. Coaching up Cassel, or getting a strong personal call from Parcells about Brissett, doesn't mean the overall record of drafting QBs is good. The Patriots are not good at evaluating QB talent so under no circumstances do I trust this staff to package multiple 1st rounders to move up for a QB. The same clowns you're debating with probably also argue the Pats draft well at WR and use Edelman (7th) or Meyers (UDFA) as an example . That's poor drafting mitigated by elite BB coaching.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Kwity Paye

 

[upstater1]

Well said. Coaching up Cassel, or getting a strong personal call from Parcells about Brissett, doesn't mean the overall record of drafting QBs is good. The Patriots are not good at evaluating QB talent so under no circumstances do I trust this staff to package multiple 1st rounders to move up for a QB. The same clowns you're debating with probably also argue the Pats draft well at WR and use Edelman (7th) or Meyers (UDFA) as an example . That's poor drafting mitigated by elite BB coaching.

I'm not at all against trading up for a QB that everyone wants.

I'm against using a 1st rounder on a guy that only one guy believes is any good.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Stay away from CB!

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm not at all against trading up for a QB that everyone wants.

I'm against using a 1st rounder on a guy that only one guy believes is any good.

Not specifically aimed at you, but aimed at the whole "I'm for/against" back and forth on this topic, and using your post as the springboard:


The only opinion that matters is the one in charge of making the pick. So there's no need for anyone here to be "for" or "against" such a move based on any particular player, beyond going on record in order to avoid a second guess when the player's career unfolds for good or bad. And that's a perfectly valid reason when it comes to forum fodder. It just means that arguing beyond that is useless. "I'd trade up for player X, but not player Y" is just another way of giving your opinion on the player himself, at least when it comes to the QB position.

 

[upstater1]

A backup QB in the NFL can be pricey. A third-round QB draft pick is drafted as a back-up, usually (and always with a team that has Brady). The only guy in your list picked as a replacement for Brady was Garoppolo. The rest were considered capable fill-ins in case of emergency, thus saving millions on the cap.

You claimed that another poster was "intentionally misreading" your posts, but it seems like a lot of us are. It's the part where you ask how anyone can have faith in the Pats' QB drafting. When I look at their QB picks in the Brady era, even the UDFA, I'm seeing a lot more positives than with almost any other team.

So yes, I have faith in their QB evaluation, as much as anyone can have in any team...which means I know it's more of a crapshoot than the yipping "experts" seem to believe.

Ive explained myself clearly.

People want to go on misreading, they can go ahead. You're doing it again.

There are back-ups, guys like Hoyer and Miller, and then in the NFL there are guys who you believe may have a shot of unseating your starter. Tyrod Taylor fits this category. He gets $10-$15m. The guys like Hoyer get peanuts.

I've pretty much said repeatedly that my point is that the Patriots valued certain QBs much higher than other teams in years in which they absolutely were not looking for a QB to backup/take over for Brady. They did it because they saw value. If Mallet had turned out to be really impressive as a backup or preseason games, they could have flipped him for a better pick. I can see the thinking. BUT the evaluation was bad. Other teams didn't like O'Connell, Mallett, Davey, and who can blame them?

That's my point.

The Patriots have never drafted a 1st round QB since Bledsoe. I expect that if they do this year, they'll have the same odds for success that everyone else has had in the last 5 years. About 70% odds of success. But if they draft a guy that everyone thinks is a 3rd rounder at best, their odds of success drop to .00001%.

 

[upstater1]

Garoppolo was the 5th QB drafted, and was clearly rated behind first two QBs taken, who are the busts taken ahead of him.

View attachment 32188

It's not that Jimmy was a bust, or not very good. I think he is good and was certainly worth the pick. It's just that he fits into the pattern of the Patriots taking a QB who they have rated highly at a level they consider to be value. And they did it with a premium pick at a time that, arguably, they didnt need to use a 2nd on a QB.

 

[upstater1]

Not specifically aimed at you, but aimed at the whole "I'm for/against" back and forth on this topic, and using your post as the springboard:


The only opinion that matters is the one in charge of making the pick. So there's no need for anyone here to be "for" or "against" such a move based on any particular player, beyond going on record in order to avoid a second guess when the player's career unfolds for good or bad. And that's a perfectly valid reason when it comes to forum fodder. It just means that arguing beyond that is useless. "I'd trade up for player X, but not player Y" is just another way of giving your opinion on the player himself, at least when it comes to the QB position.

I'd only dispute the part of this that say "your opinion on the player himself." I don't have a very high opinion of my ability to evaluate QBs. Everyone and his mother is telling us that Trey Lance should be considered a top 15 pick. Those same people have said Mills is a 3rd rounder, and some have gone so far as to say they believe he has no shot.

So, I'm going by the general consensus. And I'm pretty consistent in stating that I don't believe the Patriots are the gurus of QB evaluation.

 

[upstater1]

If I remember correctly, Rohan Davey was actually one of the more top rated QBs in the 2002 draft.

Late 3rd / early 4th by the mocks I was just looking at, so they took him where they thought he'd go.